Value of: Igor Shesterkin's next contract

[Hockeyfan2390]

With only one year left past this season on his current deal, Igor is beyond a bargain right now with an AAV of $5,666,667 through next season. There's no way that he signs for anything less than the AAV of $8.5 Hellebuyck just got from the Jets, right?

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[Hischier and Hughes]

if i had to guess.. i think he could get 10m in free agency today before the cap increases..

but will sign with the Rangers for six years at 9.215m! (boo!!)

 

[dirtydanglez]

same cap hit percentage as sorokin would be my guess

 

[Play]

If New York isn’t going to pay him, send him to San Jose and we’ll sign him long term and pay him handsomely.

He’s still young enough to rise with the upcoming core. (Plus next coupe years of high end draft picks)

 

[TGWL]

I love Igor, but I'm not here for the decline contract that becomes disgusting 3 years in. His next contract will have him turn 30 a few months in. 7 years at 9ish just doesn’t sound good.

 

[Rangeri]

They will sign him. Man is too important to lose. After Sorokin I think it's something little over his 8,25 but anything under that would be bonus.

 

[Habs Halifax]

same cap hit percentage as sorokin would be my guess

I'd guess a bit more than Sorokin, but the next two seasons will have a lot to say about it.

I love Igor, but I'm not here for the decline contract that becomes disgusting 3 years in. His next contract will have him turn 30 a few months in. 7 years at 9ish just doesn’t sound good.

7 years would be age 29-36 (Dec birthdate). Hellebuyck was just signed from age 31-37 at $8.5M. It's the cost of doing business. The major question is how much milage does Shesterkin have and is it like Price? Price played huge minutes most if not all of his career and just was not the same at 30+. Is Vasi going to go through age 30+ injuries as well? He's got lots of milage on him too.

 

[GAGLine]

I love Igor, but I'm not here for the decline contract that becomes disgusting 3 years in. His next contract will have him turn 30 a few months in. 7 years at 9ish just doesn’t sound good.

What other option do we have? And don't say Garand because he isn't ready.

 

[TGWL]

I'd guess a bit more than Sorokin, but the next two seasons will have a lot to say about it.


7 years would be age 29-36 (Dec birthdate). Hellebuyck was just signed from age 31-37 at $8.5M. It's the cost of doing business. The major question is how much milage does Shesterkin have and is it like Price? Price played huge minutes most if not all of his career and just was not the same at 30+. Is Vasi going to go through age 30+ injuries as well? He's got lots of milage on him too.

He turns 28 and 29 this contract. He turns 30 a couple months into his new contract season. Just doesnt seem smart to pay a ridiculous amount of money. I guess it will depend where NYR see their prospects. Panarin's and Kreider's contract will be coming to an end shortly after. Zibanejad will be 2 years older.

What other option do we have? And don't say Garand because he isn't ready.

He doesn't have to be ready. It's 2 seasons away. I think it'll come down to how well our prospects take off.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He turns 28 and 29 this contract. He turns 30 a couple months into his new contract season. Just doesnt seem smart to pay a ridiculous amount of money. I guess it will depend where NYR see their prospects. Panarin's and Kreider's contract will be coming to an end shortly after. Zibanejad will be 2 years older.

Habs were in the exact same situation with Price before we signed his current contract. We were at the stage where we should have traded him with 1.5 years left and we would have got a lot in return.

Problem the Rangers will have is they are a playoff team with his term left so do you move him while they are chasing the playoffs? Difficult decision to make and usually, teams extend them and not think about the future after like you are talking about. Many fall into that trap and we as fans have to remember that this is indeed a business. Trading a star goalie while you are a top 10 team in the NHL will make a lot of ignorant fans unhappy. Generating revenue is important

Remember the Rangers rebuild letter they sent to the fans? Well, they do have great ability to sign key UFA's. I think the Rangers will extend Shesterkins and keep trying to add to address holes... even when others have expiring contracts.

 

[centipede2233]

Habs were in the exact same situation with Price before we signed his current contract. We were at the stage where we should have traded him with 1.5 years left and we would have got a lot in return.

Problem the Rangers will have is you are a playoff team with his term left so do you move him while you are chasing the playoffs? Difficult decision to make and usually, teams extend them and not think about the future after like you are talking about. Many fall into that trap and we as fans have to remember that this is indeed a business. Trading a star goalie while you are a top 10 team in the NHL will make a lot of ignorant fans unhappy. Generating revenue is important

It’s absolutely amazing how when a goalie signs their ufa big money contract things go south. If it can happen to Carey Price, it can happen to any goalie. im Going to be real keen on how sorokin and helle do this year now they have their big money contracts. Teams are basically forced to overpay their stars players but in the end they will have buyers remorse….

 

[Habs Halifax]

It’s absolutely amazing how when a goalie signs their ufa big money contract things go south. If it can happen to Carey Price, it can happen to any goalie. im Going to be real keen on how sorokin and helle do this year now they have their big money contracts. Teams are basically forced to overpay their stars players but in the end they will have buyers remorse….

I think the key is to look into their usage from age 17/18+. Habs leaned heavy on Price in his 20's and he got wore out.

 

[Tender Rip]

Hopefully, his next Rangers contract will be obscenely lucrative and he will accomplish nothing for the duration.

Much love.

 

[centipede2233]

I think the key is to look into their usage from age 17/18+. Habs leaned heavy on Price in his 20's and he got wore out.

Price played 467 games regular season by age 30
Helle is at 447 at the same age….

doesn’t bode well for helle longevity

 

[ffh]

Price played 467 games regular season by age 30
Helle is at 447 at the same age….

doesn’t bode well for helle longevity

I'm sure MAF played about the same and is still playing good at 38 with no major injury problem. Everybody is different.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Price played 467 games regular season by age 30
Helle is at 447 at the same age….

doesn’t bode well for helle longevity

I'd also include playoff games too. Someone like Fleury was able to perform in his 30's. E Belfour as well but the general rule with me is there are exceptions to the rule but the exception is not the rule.

Problem with 30+ contracts is more about having to sign them to 7 or 8 year deals vs 5 or 6 year deals. Ages 34-36 is where the decline really starts happening for most players. Signing guys with massive AAV's that overlap the decline ages, creates cap issues.

 

[centipede2233]

Well it’s hard to compare longevity of a brodeur, Belfour and Roy when they played against inferior equipment, especially hockey sticks. The velocity players get on snap and wrist shots not to mention a lot more accurate slap shots with todays sticks than the 90’s. If I’m a goalie facing shots from the 90’s I’m not pulling on my groin as much making hard lateral movements

 

[Vitto79]

same as Sorokin and done

 

[Habs Halifax]

Well it’s hard to compare longevity of a brodeur, Belfour and Roy when they played against inferior equipment, especially hockey sticks. The velocity players get on snap and wrist shots not to mention a lot more accurate slap shots with todays sticks than the 90’s. If I’m a goalie facing shots from the 90’s I’m not pulling on my groin as much making hard lateral movements

Shot velocity is a factor but lateral mobility and wear on the hips and knees are a bigger factor for goalies. It's kind of like a pitcher in baseball and there was some talk about how that compares to NHL goalies.

Young kids are putting a lot of training on mobility and lateral movement. Same as a young baseball pitcher throwing as hard as they can for too long of a period. That's why baseball managers have pitch counts and have reduced it over the years.

Habs leaned heavy on Price. He has multiple season of 60+ starts with lots of playoff games as well. Shesterkin has not had the load Price had at the same age. That's the good news anyways.

 

[bernmeister]

Whether in NY or elsewhere, he will get paid + deserves it.

Sanderson + Pinto + cap dump Tara
for
Shesty + Jones + elc Perrault

Sandy on last elc yr, then extension kicks in, so above deal to be ballpark cap compliant manageable
Sens can be given permission to discuss $$ extension if nec
They can flip Korpi to a G desperate team

Rs will gamble on Garand, who does not have to match Shesty day 1, just be good enuf as he learns.
Rs stabilizing D going forward
Sanderson-Fox
KAM - Schneider
is a huge +.

8 yrs + of Sandman at 8 -- which looks good later on in that term -- = same you would have to pay for Shesty -- makes sense.

Sens are moving a foundation piece but Vez quality add for next 6-8 yrs helps win many games.
If Igor will not extend, can still get a ransom from multiple suitors

 

[Play]

Hopefully, his next Rangers contract will be obscenely lucrative and he will accomplish nothing for the duration.

Much love.

What’s the point of saying “much love” when the intent isn’t pure ?

 

[Gardner McKay]

If New York isn’t going to pay him, send him to San Jose and we’ll sign him long term and pay him handsomely.

He’s still young enough to rise with the upcoming core. (Plus next coupe years of high end draft picks)

Sure. Should we start with your next three first round picks?

 

[Play]

Sure. Should we start with your next three first round picks?

Touché

 

[Machinehead]

I wouldn't touch it.

If you need an elite goalie to keep you in games, the team isn't good enough.

 

[Djp]

I'd also include playoff games too. Someone like Fleury was able to perform in his 30's. E Belfour as well but the general rule with me is there are exceptions to the rule but the exception is not the rule.

Problem with 30+ contracts is more about having to sign them to 7 or 8 year deals vs 5 or 6 year deals. Ages 34-36 is where the decline really starts happening for most players. Signing guys with massive AAV's that overlap the decline ages, creates cap issues.

Player decline happens sooner than 34-36.

it can start around 29 or so. What you re referencing is called recency or survivor bias by just looking at those who made it to 34+ and ignoring those who dropped out at 29+

the thing is…it’s not easy predicting when the drop occurs.

unless the player is the type to drive ticket/ gate revenue at 30+, you don’t give contracts to last more than 3 years.