If you win the cup you will repeat (66 % of the time)
- Thread starter Puckstuff
- Start date
And if you start from the very beginning in the 1918 season; whoever won the cup that year has repeated in 7 years 91 % of the time
Bank Shot
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I heard the teacher was Scott Steiner.
What's the number since the playoffs were expanded to 16 teams? 1979-80 Season.
The 12 team era definitely is not a comparable data point today.
The 12 team era definitely is not a comparable data point today.
BernieParent
In misery of redwings of suckage for a long time
I think the converse is also true: 100% of teams that don't win the Cup won't repeat.
I mean, it stands to reason that a team that's good enough to win the Cup has a really good team. Teams that good rarely see major roster turnover - and even if they do, it's usually on the fringes, and not the core players. So it would make sense that they remain competitive, and do repeat, more often than not.
Pretty cool to see that 2/3 teams manage to do it.
Pretty cool to see that 2/3 teams manage to do it.
I think they're on the riskier side of not repeating. I think this year was their "repeat" for what they missed out on during their streak of perennial regular season greatness.
Oddbob
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But that only gives you 33 and 1/3's chance of repeating.
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Well if hockey was completely random and all teams were equal, a team that wins the cup would have about a 21.5% chance of winning it again within 7 years. Since hockey isn't completely random, there tends to be 6-7 teams that really divy up the majority of the odds to win the cup each year, and when one of those teams win, they typically keep everything intact, meaning it's actually likely they will stay one of the teams with the top 6-7 odds of winning the cup, making it likely they will win again given 6-7 tries at it.
Also, many teams overreact to a couple of playoff losses, and teams that are in that group that lose a few times, tend to throw out a lot of the good with the bad, and weaken themselves, actually removing some of the competition from the teams in that group who have won it before.
The capitals are a bit of a success story because they never did really give up on it after years of disappointment. They kept a good team together, made some tough decisions along the way, and kept giving themselves a chance, and finally things went there way and they have a cup.
Also, many teams overreact to a couple of playoff losses, and teams that are in that group that lose a few times, tend to throw out a lot of the good with the bad, and weaken themselves, actually removing some of the competition from the teams in that group who have won it before.
The capitals are a bit of a success story because they never did really give up on it after years of disappointment. They kept a good team together, made some tough decisions along the way, and kept giving themselves a chance, and finally things went there way and they have a cup.
Washington deserves to be Cup favourites. Still there chances are just getting to the Final are maybe one in four, and then to win the Cup, one in seven. (my estimates) It's a tough road for even the best team in the league.
vuvuzela
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I recently read and interview where that promo took around 8 tries to get right and the math kept getting better and better each time.
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