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If you win the cup you will repeat (66 % of the time)

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  1. Puckstuff Registered User

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    I found this stat to be cool.

    If your team wins the Stanley cup; you have a 66 % chance of them winning it again within 7 years.

    Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA have all repeated this decade. Detroit, NJ, Colorado have all recently repeated. After the NHL expanded in 1967 the Islanders, Oilers, Flyers, Bruins have also repeated while teams like NJ, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Montreal have all had multiple teams win within 7 years.

    I did not include Washington because they have not had an opportunity (or 7 years) to repeat.

    Since 1967 only 7 teams that won the stanley cup have NOT repeated within 7 years.

    Boston - 2011
    Anaheim - 2007
    Carolina - 2006
    Tampa Bay - 2004
    Dallas - 1999
    New York Rangers - 1994
    Calgary - 1989

    The pattern seems to be every winner every 4 or 5 years does not repeat. This leads me to believe Washington will not repeat as it's been 7 years.
    -
    All-Time Stanley Cup Champions
    -
    I found this out on my own
     
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  2. bobbyking Registered User

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    That's pretty dam interesting tbh.
     
  3. Puckstuff Registered User

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    And if you start from the very beginning in the 1918 season; whoever won the cup that year has repeated in 7 years 91 % of the time
     
  4. DFAC Registered User

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    Very, very interesting. I guess it shows that dynasties are a real thing. I wonder what this stat is like for the NBA....
     
  5. Bank Shot Registered User

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    70% of the time they win the championship every time.

    It's science.
     
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  6. TGWL Registered User

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    I heard the teacher was Scott Steiner.
     
  7. Flukeshot Fletcher Activate! Sponsor

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    What's the number since the playoffs were expanded to 16 teams? 1979-80 Season.

    The 12 team era definitely is not a comparable data point today.
     
  8. BernieParent In misery of redwings of suckage for a long time

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    I think the converse is also true: 100% of teams that don't win the Cup won't repeat.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Ridley Simon Registered User

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    Caps will repeat. IMO.
     
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  10. Silver91 Agent 0091

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    I mean, it stands to reason that a team that's good enough to win the Cup has a really good team. Teams that good rarely see major roster turnover - and even if they do, it's usually on the fringes, and not the core players. So it would make sense that they remain competitive, and do repeat, more often than not.

    Pretty cool to see that 2/3 teams manage to do it.
     
  11. BoredBrandonPridham Registered User

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    I think they're on the riskier side of not repeating. I think this year was their "repeat" for what they missed out on during their streak of perennial regular season greatness.
     
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  12. Oddbob Registered User

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    But that only gives you 33 and 1/3's chance of repeating.
     
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  13. TGWL Registered User

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    The numbers don't lie!
     
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  14. Richard Registered User

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    So its happened 4 times in the last 14 years and 3 times in the previous 37 seasons. 6/7 after 1994 and the first lockout?

    Seems to be a lot harder to win the cup.
     
  15. Tweed Registered User

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    Be careful using the word "chance" around here.
     
  16. Danny1237 Registered User

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    Well if hockey was completely random and all teams were equal, a team that wins the cup would have about a 21.5% chance of winning it again within 7 years. Since hockey isn't completely random, there tends to be 6-7 teams that really divy up the majority of the odds to win the cup each year, and when one of those teams win, they typically keep everything intact, meaning it's actually likely they will stay one of the teams with the top 6-7 odds of winning the cup, making it likely they will win again given 6-7 tries at it.

    Also, many teams overreact to a couple of playoff losses, and teams that are in that group that lose a few times, tend to throw out a lot of the good with the bad, and weaken themselves, actually removing some of the competition from the teams in that group who have won it before.

    The capitals are a bit of a success story because they never did really give up on it after years of disappointment. They kept a good team together, made some tough decisions along the way, and kept giving themselves a chance, and finally things went there way and they have a cup.
     
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  17. lifelonghockeyfan Registered User

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    Washington deserves to be Cup favourites. Still there chances are just getting to the Final are maybe one in four, and then to win the Cup, one in seven. (my estimates) It's a tough road for even the best team in the league.
     
  18. vuvuzela Registered User

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    I think there are a 141 2/3 chance you are correct.
     
  19. TGWL Registered User

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    I recently read and interview where that promo took around 8 tries to get right and the math kept getting better and better each time.
     

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