5v5
the edmonton oilers rank 25th in scoring chances against per waronice. Calgary ranks 26th and made the playoffs.
Under nelson the oilers gave up more scoring chances going from 25th to 29th.
Any goalie would struggle.
But.... under paul maclean the sens had the same scoring chances against as the oilers and Craig Anderson had a .930 save percentage
The oilers also have a similar scoring chance per 60 as the flames which is kinda funny... so the flames made the playoffs because their players had higher shooting percentages and their goalies were better.
Edmonton is one place removed from the Canadiens in scoring chance plus minus and 2 removed from the flames.
So its conceivable imo that the oilers make the playoffs if their shooters score more and their goalies play better even with this number of scoring chances against
5v5 goalies with 1000 mins
A closer look at the edmonton and flames goalies. Hiller saved 96.84 of 100 low quality shots well Scrivens saved a league worst 94.21 and Fasth saved 3rd worst in the league 94.65.
For those who are curious about who let in more soft goals then Fasth... Robin Lehner for ottawa saved 94.37 good for 2nd worst in the league on soft goals. James Reimer ranked 7th worst
For medium chance goals Fasth is 2nd worst and Scrivens is 8th worst. The only regular start as bad is Ryan Miller.
Its not just the scoring chances. The oilers truly do have the worst starting goalies in the league
Does the "scoring chance" number also take into account puck movement before shots are taken? Not just where the shots are taken? One of the biggest issues with the Oilers is the amount of puck movement we allow in our zone that leads up to shots. Stopping a shot that you're set up for is much easier than a shot taken after the puck is moved a distance and the goalie has move to line up towards the shot first. I think most scoring chance data only takes into account shot location.
Saw this article the other day, a pretty involved look at the difference in shot quality (including puck movement before shots) that Dubs faced in Edmonton compared to what he faces now on other teams.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/examining-dubnyks-wild-comeback-season/
It's an extreme case of course, because Minny is in another league as far as defensive coverage goes which really shows why Dubs sav% skyrocketed to such a degree, but still, the Oilers are likely in their own league compared to most any team in the NHL at bad coverage in our end that allows teams to do whatever they like with the puck before taking their high quality chances.