IF we had an average Goalie....

[Jmask83]

How many more wins would we have?

Hockey is a team game but I just went through the schedule and counted 7 or 8 games where some average goaltending would have gotten us the win. Now mind you we would still be 13th but it narrows the Gap. Opinions?

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[Jumptheshark]

How many more wins would we have?

Hockey is a team game but I just went through the schedule and counted 7 or 8 games where some average goaltending would have gotten us the win. Now mind you we would still be 13th but it narrows the Gap. Opinions?

the problem is the D--goaltending also a problem--but our D allowed too many "Good shots" every night and it would not matter if a 24 year old Ken Dryden was in net--you give up 20+ good shots a night teams will score

 

[Jmask83]

the problem is the D--goaltending also a problem--but our D allowed too many "Good shots" every night and it would not matter if a 24 year old Ken Dryden was in net--you give up 20+ good shots a night teams will score

Correct the D is bad but I was thinking back to the games where for example Scrivens mishandled the puck or against Vancouver where he couldn't stop a beach all. There were games where we lost 8-2 or 7-2 or 5-1. Those are losses no matter what.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Correct the D is bad but I was thinking back to the games where for example Scrivens mishandled the puck or against Vancouver where he couldn't stop a beach all. There were games where we lost 8-2 or 7-2 or 5-1. Those are losses no matter what.

In the last few months I saw about 12 to14 games on line and the oilers were giving up way too high quality shots. Goalies are punch drunk from rubber

 

[Jmask83]

In the last few months I saw about 12 to14 games on line and the oilers were giving up way too high quality shots. Goalies are punch drunk from rubber

I looked at Fenwick stats and Corsi stats and OILERS were 24th worst in both. Teams behind them all finished ahead of the Oilers except for Buffalo. All had better goaltending.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

The Oilers would still be terrible.

 

[The Nuge]

the problem is the D--goaltending also a problem--but our D allowed too many "Good shots" every night and it would not matter if a 24 year old Ken Dryden was in net--you give up 20+ good shots a night teams will score

Yes and no. That's gone WAY down after Nelson took over

 

[Jmask83]

The Oilers would still be terrible.

Yes true. But my intention is to see whether the Oilers are going to have to make a lot of changes to Jump from 60 points to 89 points. Or would getting a goalie make that jump less daunting.

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

2454 shots against
.892 our SV%
2188 Saves



265 GA with our SV%

13 empty net goals

=283


according to NHL.com the average save percentage is .915

208+ 13 empty net goals GA with average goaltending

221 GA


so 57 Goals Against better, I have no idea how much better that would've made us, maybe 10 wins?

 

[Zap Brannigan]

devan dubnyk proved that goalies can have a bad a year

FREE DUBNYK

 

[Jmask83]

2454 shots against
.892 our SV%
2188 Saves



265 GA with our SV%

13 empty net goals

=283


according to NHL.com the average save percentage is .915

208+ 13 empty net goals GA with average goaltending

221 GA


so 57 Goals Against better, I have no idea how much better that would've made us, maybe 10 wins?

Yes that's what I estimated but I minused 2-3 wins because Oilers.

 

[StoveTopStauffer]

devan dubnyk proved that goalies can have a bad a year

FREE DUBNYK

Chain him up and get him back here.

 

[Aerchon]

I would guess maybe 5 more wins max.

Unfortunately for Scrivens his last game was the most obvious pile of dung he played all year and will be misleading to those that think goaltending was THE primary problem.

Defense is THE biggest problem and will be for a long time with what we have.

EDIT: you can't just slap "average" goaltending numbers in and say that works. Our defensemen would make any goaltender mathematically terrible.

 

[Kepler 186f]

We would still stink.

4, 5 more wins? Big deal. They need 18 more wins to get into the playoffs.

 

[Jmask83]

I would guess maybe 5 more wins max.

Unfortunately for Scrivens his last game was the most obvious pile of dung he played all year and will be misleading to those that think goaltending was THE primary problem.

Defense is THE biggest problem and will be for a long time with what we have.

It can't be the primary problem when your like 30 points behind 12th. But if we had average goaltending maybe we'd be closer.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

5v5

the edmonton oilers rank 25th in scoring chances against per waronice. Calgary ranks 26th and made the playoffs.

Under nelson the oilers gave up more scoring chances going from 25th to 29th.

Any goalie would struggle.

But.... under paul maclean the sens had the same scoring chances against as the oilers and Craig Anderson had a .930 save percentage

The oilers also have a similar scoring chance per 60 as the flames which is kinda funny... so the flames made the playoffs because their players had higher shooting percentages and their goalies were better.

Edmonton is one place removed from the Canadiens in scoring chance plus minus and 2 removed from the flames.

So its conceivable imo that the oilers make the playoffs if their shooters score more and their goalies play better even with this number of scoring chances against

5v5 goalies with 1000 mins
A closer look at the edmonton and flames goalies. Hiller saved 96.84 of 100 low quality shots well Scrivens saved a league worst 94.21 and Fasth saved 3rd worst in the league 94.65.

For those who are curious about who let in more soft goals then Fasth... Robin Lehner for ottawa saved 94.37 good for 2nd worst in the league on soft goals. James Reimer ranked 7th worst

For medium chance goals Fasth is 2nd worst and Scrivens is 8th worst. The only regular start as bad is Ryan Miller.

Its not just the scoring chances. The oilers truly do have the worst starting goalies in the league

 

[nexttothemoon]

The Oilers had 2 average goalies in Fasth and Scrivens... and we saw the results. The team defensively is horrible... from the forwards to the D to the coaching to the management... dead last in goals against.

The two goalies are certainly not world beaters... but would likely be average backups on many other (better) teams... not in this environment though.

 

[McIce Whole]

In the last few months I saw about 12 to14 games on line and the oilers were giving up way too high quality shots. Goalies are punch drunk from rubber

It's a combination of both. Scrivens let in some very soft goals and the defence gave up some high quality scoring chances but the thing is every team, even the best of them, have defensive lapses and give up quality scoring chances. The difference is that their goalie bails them out and having a goalie that can make that big save for you is a huge boost of confidence to any team, that's why it is the most important position in the NHL. Goalies can basically steal you games and with how poor our defence is, we need a goalie that can bail us out. I hope we can get Anderson.

 

[Oilers10]

Didn't Oilers play an astronomical amoutn of 1 goal games? With decent goalies we win a couple more of those games. Also, you win players feel more confident and you could get a couple more wins going on a roll. I know from playing when I feel not confident in my goalie it is so deflating to try hard if softies are going in.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

There are larger problems. The ONLY time the "if the Oilers had average goaltending" thing actually mattered, which was in 2005/06. That team was ALOT better then the goaltending for most of that season let them be.

 

[Mr Positive]

The Oilers had 2 average goalies in Fasth and Scrivens... and we saw the results. The team defensively is horrible... from the forwards to the D to the coaching to the management... dead last in goals against.

The two goalies are certainly not world beaters... but would likely be average backups on many other (better) teams... not in this environment though.

i read it as average starter, as in half the league is better and the other half is worse. Right now we are not average. Probably right at the bottom

 

[oobga]

If teams didn't back off after they got a nice lead we would probably lose way more games by 4+ goals. Our team is just not good and, when Eakins was coaching especially, our skaters don't look like they belong at the NHL level until the other team backs off. You need a pretty amazing goalie to hold the fort when teams are exposing our bad team for entire games and not just for that period of time before they get comfortable and start to sit back. I don't think any average goalie would cut it here the way the team is now.

 

[oobga]

5v5

the edmonton oilers rank 25th in scoring chances against per waronice. Calgary ranks 26th and made the playoffs.

Under nelson the oilers gave up more scoring chances going from 25th to 29th.

Any goalie would struggle.

But.... under paul maclean the sens had the same scoring chances against as the oilers and Craig Anderson had a .930 save percentage

The oilers also have a similar scoring chance per 60 as the flames which is kinda funny... so the flames made the playoffs because their players had higher shooting percentages and their goalies were better.

Edmonton is one place removed from the Canadiens in scoring chance plus minus and 2 removed from the flames.

So its conceivable imo that the oilers make the playoffs if their shooters score more and their goalies play better even with this number of scoring chances against

5v5 goalies with 1000 mins
A closer look at the edmonton and flames goalies. Hiller saved 96.84 of 100 low quality shots well Scrivens saved a league worst 94.21 and Fasth saved 3rd worst in the league 94.65.

For those who are curious about who let in more soft goals then Fasth... Robin Lehner for ottawa saved 94.37 good for 2nd worst in the league on soft goals. James Reimer ranked 7th worst

For medium chance goals Fasth is 2nd worst and Scrivens is 8th worst. The only regular start as bad is Ryan Miller.

Its not just the scoring chances. The oilers truly do have the worst starting goalies in the league

Does the "scoring chance" number also take into account puck movement before shots are taken? Not just where the shots are taken? One of the biggest issues with the Oilers is the amount of puck movement we allow in our zone that leads up to shots. Stopping a shot that you're set up for is much easier than a shot taken after the puck is moved a distance and the goalie has move to line up towards the shot first. I think most scoring chance data only takes into account shot location.

Saw this article the other day, a pretty involved look at the difference in shot quality (including puck movement before shots) that Dubs faced in Edmonton compared to what he faces now on other teams.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/examining-dubnyks-wild-comeback-season/

It's an extreme case of course, because Minny is in another league as far as defensive coverage goes which really shows why Dubs sav% skyrocketed to such a degree, but still, the Oilers are likely in their own league compared to most any team in the NHL at bad coverage in our end that allows teams to do whatever they like with the puck before taking their high quality chances.

 

[NewBoysClub97*]

Didn't Oilers play an astronomical amoutn of 1 goal games? With decent goalies we win a couple more of those games. Also, you win players feel more confident and you could get a couple more wins going on a roll. I know from playing when I feel not confident in my goalie it is so deflating to try hard if softies are going in.

I think about 1/2. Maybe a tad more. CGY did that last year. 40 some one goal games.

 

[Aerchon]

The stats being tossed about to claim our goaltending is the problem and our defense is fine is ludicrous.

Anyone can cherry pick or manipulate stats to mislead to suit an argument. That is all that is happening here.

The quality of the scoring chances the Oilers are giving up is off the charts bad. Our defence is off the chart bad. Which makes sense with who we are using.

Damn near everyone and their inlaws said Scrivens and Fasthe is the best goaltending the Oilers have had since Rollie.

Revisionist may try to say otherwise but this team ruins goalies not the other way around.