Speculation: If the season goes down the tubes, who's the first to go?

[I Am Score*]

Depends on how you look at it.

I don't think we'll be shopping Neuvirth if he has a better season. I'm not sure the team wants go with him as the long term starter or Holtby.

Also Kuznetsov won't come over next season unless 2014 after the Olympics, which I still don't see happening.

 

[fedfed]

To make it clear, I didn't call for all the trades I posted in that trade - I just wanted to see what values are.
Hendricks, Crabb, Wolski, maybe Fehr are guys I'd keep.
I'd replace Ersk with Schilling.
Poti and Hillen... nah.
Ribeiro is the hardest part. If I get some mind-blowing return from a desperate team AND have my team in the bottom 5, then I'm trading him. Either NHL ready prospect+ or first-rounder+. Then I'd try to sign him in the summer though I know it's a long shot.

 

[I Am Score*]

It's possible either Laich/Brouwer could be gone.

Very Likely is Perreault, Schultz, Hamrlik, Poti, Erskine, and possibly Chimera.

 

[I Am Score*]

To make it clear, I didn't call for all the trades I posted in that trade - I just wanted to see what values are.
Hendricks, Crabb, Wolski, maybe Fehr are guys I'd keep.
I'd replace Ersk with Schilling.
Poti and Hillen... nah.
Ribeiro is the hardest part. If I get some mind-blowing return from a desperate team AND have my team in the bottom 5, then I'm trading him. Either NHL ready prospect+ or first-rounder+. Then I'd try to sign him in the summer though I know it's a long shot.

If you get MacKinnon in the draft I can pretty much guarantee you Ribeiro will be shopped.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There you go again, with the negative waves.

Just being realistic...

 

[fedfed]

If you get MacKinnon in the draft I can pretty much guarantee you Ribeiro will be shopped.

With lottery, no one can guarantee you MacKinnon, but I think even with Barkov in Ribeiro becomes expendable.

 

[fedfed]

@Ref9
Not to bash, but I crunched the numbers of that roster you gave. It isn't gonna happen. With Neuvy, Holtby, Alzner, Johansson each getting about 2.5 we have 1.5 or so left for Semin.

 

[fedfed]

Actually, I just did another scenario in the new CapGeek calculator that allows to use bonus cushion and we're looking good.

I think there's a good balance on each of three first lines. Passer (Backstrom, Ribeiro, Johansson), scorer (Ovechkin, Wolski, Barkov), grinder/defensive specialist (Forsberg, Brouwer, Laich). Having Chimera and Ward on the fourth allows more flexibility for Ribeiro line first of all. If things don't click, you just swap Wolski and Brouwer with Chimera and Ward and you have a new look.

FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Filip Forsberg ($1.492m)
Wojtek Wolski ($1.000m) / Mike Ribeiro ($5.000m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Brooks Laich ($4.500m) / Aleksander Barkov ($0.925m) / Marcus Johansson ($2.300m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Matt Hendricks ($0.825m) / Joey Crabb ($0.950m)
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($3.000m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Douglas Murray/Ron Hainsey ($2.000m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
Cameron Schilling ($1.775m) / Dmitry Orlov ($0.900m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.660m)
GOALTENDERS
Michal Neuvirth ($2.200m)
Braden Holtby ($2.200m)
OTHER
Buyout: Jeff Schultz ($0.000m)
Traded: Mathieu Perreault ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $65,331,795; BONUSES: $1,710,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $678,205

 

[RandyHolt]

The fair weather fans

 

[I Am Score*]

Actually, I just did another scenario in the new CapGeek calculator that allows to use bonus cushion and we're looking good.

I think there's a good balance on each of three first lines. Passer (Backstrom, Ribeiro, Johansson), scorer (Ovechkin, Wolski, Barkov), grinder/defensive specialist (Forsberg, Brouwer, Laich). Having Chimera and Ward on the fourth allows more flexibility for Ribeiro line first of all. If things don't click, you just swap Wolski and Brouwer with Chimera and Ward and you have a new look.

FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Filip Forsberg ($1.492m)
Wojtek Wolski ($1.000m) / Mike Ribeiro ($5.000m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Brooks Laich ($4.500m) / Aleksander Barkov ($0.925m) / Marcus Johansson ($2.300m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Matt Hendricks ($0.825m) / Joey Crabb ($0.950m)
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($3.000m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Douglas Murray/Ron Hainsey ($2.000m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
Cameron Schilling ($1.775m) / Dmitry Orlov ($0.900m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.660m)
GOALTENDERS
Michal Neuvirth ($2.200m)
Braden Holtby ($2.200m)
OTHER
Buyout: Jeff Schultz ($0.000m)
Traded: Mathieu Perreault ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $65,331,795; BONUSES: $1,710,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $678,205

No offense but Holtby/Neuvirth will likely be gone.

Also I would never want Murray or Hainsey on our team haha. Everything else looks good other than i'd keep Crabb over Chimera. Chimera i'd probably trade. Also Barkov likely wouldn't be on the roster next year.

 

[I Am Score*]

Future roster needs to be this. (2) means two years from now they will be on the roster.

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov (2)
Forsberg, Barkov/MacKinnon, Laich
Brouwer, (Trade Johansson), Wolski
Crabb, Beagle, Hendricks

Alzner, Green
Orlov, Carlson
Schilling, Insert
(Kundratek)

Holtby/Neuvirth

 

[I Am Score*]

Back on topic:

Perreault be gone. Schultz will be bought out. Poti, Erskine, Hamrlik gone. One of Neuvirth/Holtby should be replaced for a veteran backup.

George McPhee likely gone as well. Adam Oates gets one more season under the helm and if he struggles he'll be fired next mid-season.



Honorable mentions: Jason Chimera, Joey Crabb

 

[Brad Tolliver]

If you get MacKinnon in the draft I can pretty much guarantee you Ribeiro will be shopped.

What exactly do you think they are going to get for an UFA?

 

[fedfed]

[1]No offense but Holtby/Neuvirth will likely be gone.

[2]Also I would never want Murray or Hainsey on our team haha. Everything else looks good other than i'd keep Crabb over Chimera. Chimera i'd probably trade. [3]Also Barkov likely wouldn't be on the roster next year.

[1] What??
[2] They're an upgrade over Hamrlik. Another guy is Mark Fistric.
[3] I think size is a big part of whether the prospect makes it to the NHL right away or not and with 6'2", 200+ I like his chances.

 

[fedfed]

What exactly do you think they are going to get for an UFA?

Especially considering that now you can negotiatiate with UFA on the day after draft.

 

[I Am Score*]

Just to clear this up, this thread is about who will be GONE if we tank. I have already stated who I believe. I believe there is no purpose to sign Ribs long term if you draft someone like MacKinnon.

[1] What??
[2] They're an upgrade over Hamrlik. Another guy is Mark Fistric.
[3] I think size is a big part of whether the prospect makes it to the NHL right away or not and with 6'2", 200+ I like his chances.

Anyone is an upgrade over Hamrlik. That doesn't mean you go and get them.

Both those players are bad. And he won't make it to the NHL right away. You're looking at a guy similar to Mikael Granlund except he won't wait two years to get in the NHL, only one. Very similar players though.

Plus GMGM likes to let their drafted players sit a year out to get more developed. Unless they believe this guy is a true legitimate next Nick Backstrom, he'll sit out a year.

Especially considering that now you can negotiatiate with UFA on the day after draft.

Assuming they draft MacKinnon Ribeiro won't be resigned. They have no need for Backstrom/Ribeiro/MacKinnon. That's so much money on just the Center position where you already have Johansson and are weak on the wing. Ask Carolina how that's working out.

 

[I Am Score*]

And Holtby/Neuvirth one of the two will be gone. Not both.

Sorry if I was misleading. They won't keep both for a full season again. The ONLY thing otherwise I could see happening is trading them next year at the deadline. But likely one could be traded during the draft.

 

[fedfed]

Just to clear this up, this thread is about who will be GONE if we tank. I have already stated who I believe. I believe there is no purpose to sign Ribs long term if you draft someone like MacKinnon.



Anyone is an upgrade over Hamrlik. That doesn't mean you go and get them.

Both those players are bad. And he won't make it to the NHL right away. You're looking at a guy similar to Mikael Granlund except he won't wait two years to get in the NHL, only one. Very similar players though.

Plus GMGM likes to let their drafted players sit a year out to get more developed. Unless they believe this guy is a true legitimate next Nick Backstrom, he'll sit out a year.



Assuming they draft MacKinnon Ribeiro won't be resigned. They have no need for Backstrom/Ribeiro/MacKinnon. That's so much money on just the Center position where you already have Johansson and are weak on the wing. Ask Carolina how that's working out.

5'11 176 - Granlund before the draft. Not much of a comparison here.
We won't get MacKinnon, we're not that bad and not that lucky.
Oates likes three scoring lines that's why we could've gone with Backstrom, Ribeiro and rookie for a year or even two. So much money on center? Rookie earns $925k as bonus cushion is back.

 

[BTCG]

@ Wiz

Holland waits 20 when it's a full season.

With only 48 games, you evaluate after 12

That's only a handful that are left, and tomorrow comes the Pens.

GMGM's had 15 years. That seems like an amount anyone would say is fair.

 

[I Am Score*]

5'11 176 - Granlund before the draft. Not much of a comparison here.
We won't get MacKinnon, we're not that bad and not that lucky.
Oates likes three scoring lines that's why we could've gone with Backstrom, Ribeiro and rookie for a year or even two. So much money on center? Rookie earns $925k as bonus cushion is back.

We won't get MacKinnon? We're one of the worst teams in the league right now, we barely beat Philadelphia.

We'll probably get Drouin if we don't get MacKinnon, not Barkov.

And LONG term money into just centers. Backstrom already is getting paid big money, Ribeiro is a UFA, and then a top draft pick? You would need to cut ties with Ribeiro.

And I said playing style, not height and weight.

 

[breakawaygoal]

I'd think Ribeiro could at least fetch a 1st round pick and maybe a prospect at the deadline, especially if he plays as well as he has so far... especially with the salary cap going down I think that would be more beneficial for the Caps

 

[fedfed]

We won't get MacKinnon? We're one of the worst teams in the league right now, we barely beat Philadelphia.

We'll probably get Drouin if we don't get MacKinnon, not Barkov.

And LONG term money into just centers. Backstrom already is getting paid big money, Ribeiro is a UFA, and then a top draft pick? You would need to cut ties with Ribeiro.

And I said playing style, not height and weight.

By the time Barkov will get big money (3 years at least, or if you're sying he won't play with the team in year 1, 4 years), Ribeiro will be old.

 

[g00n]

Our preferences and "hockey sense" won't factor into it. It will be about money, and Ted's perception.

Ted bought the injury excuse last year, and this year it will be new coach + lockout = no drastic moves.

So any changes you see made will be called "hockey moves" but they will make more sense financially than anything else.

 

[txpd]

@ Wiz

Holland waits 20 when it's a full season.

With only 48 games, you evaluate after 12

That's only a handful that are left, and tomorrow comes the Pens.

GMGM's had 15 years. That seems like an amount anyone would say is fair.

thats four games starting with the pens. so, if the caps win 5 or 6 of the 8 pts...then what? are you assuming the caps lose to the pens? are you saying that it doesnt matter if they beat the pens?

@breakaway...yes ribeiro playing like he is could bring a late first round pick, which is a marginal shot at an top 6/top 4 player. that assumes the caps are missing the playoffs at the deadline and i wouldnt assume that.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Holland specifically said that this season, he'd evaluate after 20 games.

During a typical season, Detroit Red Wings GM Ken Holland gives himself until American Thanksgiving to fully evaluate his team and decide what, if anything, he needs to do to keep his team in the hunt for a Stanley Cup.

That typically gives him and his fellow general managers about 25 games in an 82-game season to know exactly what they have. It's ample time to work out a few kinks but leaves plenty of games to make up ground if need be.

This isn't a typical season. So during a shortened, 48-game season, when is Holland's Thanksgiving evaluation?

"Twenty games," he said during a pregame chat Friday. "Once you get to 20 games, you'll have a read of what you've got, where we fit."

That gives Holland until the end of February to wait out injuries and slow starts to see where things stand. It's also 42 percent into this season compared with 30 percent during a regular season. For the Red Wings, and every other team fighting for playoff position this year, waiting until the end of February to address needs may be too late.

"Even if it is, if you're looking to do something, you can only do something if you have a partner," Holland said. "At the end of the day, it takes 20 games to figure out who you are and what you've got … you've got to set expectations realistically. In the meantime, we have to find ways to win games."

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