Predictions aside, which team in your opinion has the best chance of landing JT, either through FA or trade, if he doesn't resign with the Isles?
The two parts of your post sort of contradict each other.I don't think he's going to play in Canada so save money on taxes and unneeded attention.
Since the Rangers have dropped Stephan, I'll go with them for now.
Sign for pennies on the dollar to win a cup with the Oilers
The two parts of your post sort of contradict each other.
Inside Track:
Minnesota: They won't be able to retain Koivu, but again - a small price to pay for a player of Tavares' caliber. The Wild currently have ~55m committed to 15 players, and could simply let Koivu walk and sign Tavares. Minnesota is an attractive destination, the Wild have been on the brink forever and have never had that real, true superstar player that most teams have had at one point (especially the teams that have been successful). Tavares could be a great fit here.
St. Louis: Almost everything I wrote about Minnesota could apply to St. Louis here. Replace "Koivu" with "Stastny". St. Louis has 58m committed to 14 guys, many of whom are long-term pieces. Tavares would have the #1C position locked up for 7 years and would spend that entire time playing next to one of the best sniping wingers in the league (Tarasenko).
Anaheim: The Ducks already have 56m committed to 12 players, but they have already given out most of their major contracts (Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Rackell, Silfverberg, Eaves, Lindholm, Vatanen, Fowler, Gibson, Miller). Adding Tavares would take a balancing act, sure, but adding 7-9 players to a roster that already boasts the aforementioned talent for the cost of 6-10 million shouldn't be too hard. They are currently filling those spots for ~12m, but that includes Bieksa at 4m (4m which will need to be spent far more cleverly if they hope to add Tavares).
Philadelphia: The Flyers might be poised for a big rebound season. If they follow through, they will be in the position to add a huge piece next off-season. Philly has 17 NHLers under-contract next year at a caphit of just 57.5m. Adding Tavares would be very doable and I could see puck-crazy Philly being an intruiging place for Johnny to play.
Nashville: Nashville is in a similar position as Philly is financially (16 contracts @ 60m). They have RyJo, but Tavares is on a whole different level. If both sides are motivated - and I can't see why they wouldn't be - this looks like it would be a good fit.
Montreal: The Habs need a top 6 centerman, thats no secret to anyone. Tavares would be the ultimate coup and might just be the missing piece that the Habs need in order to seriously compete. With 58m committed to 15 players and no significant contracts left to dole out, Les Habitants could be a perfect fit for Tavares.
San Jose: San Jose has 53m committed to 12 players and Thornton could very well be on his way out. All their significant contracts are in order and this could be the one move that can save the Sharks from the inevitable shockwaves that will occur from Thorntons departure.
Columbus: Almost a match made in heaven. With 45m committed to 14 players and a lack of a big-time topline center, the Blue Jackets have a lot to offer Tavares. He would get a top end support staff at forward and one of the strongest back ends in the league. They have few significant players to re-sign and are set up to be a strong team for a long time. If there is interest on Johnny's end, I could definitely see this one going down.
I picked Washington... I don't think Tavares will test FA so for this one I just went for a team that I thought could pull it off and that would hold the most interest to Johnny T.
Washington is a great place for Tavares to go because he joins Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie up front long term, all of them between 25-31. They would need to move some money around but it could work.
In retrospect, I'd probably choose a different team.
As a leafs fan, it's not realistic to see him in Toronto, unless he takes a big loss.
Yeah, Toronto doesn't have the cap space for him. I wouldn't be shocked if he gave them a discount because he doesn't strike me as someone who is in it for the money, but there will be teams out there that can offer everything the Leafs can AND a lot of money.
I'd bet on the Rangers or Sharks myself. What's Nashville's cap situation like?
***Everything the leafs can, except playing in front of the hometown team that you grew up loving and creating the best offense in the league.
How often does this factor into it? Shattenkirk comes to mind of course, but who else?
I picked Washington... I don't think Tavares will test FA so for this one I just went for a team that I thought could pull it off and that would hold the most interest to Johnny T.
Washington is a great place for Tavares to go because he joins Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie up front long term, all of them between 25-31. They would need to move some money around but it could work.
In retrospect, I'd probably choose a different team.
No chance:
Chicago: Unless they move Kane or Toews, it just isn't happening.
Tampa Bay: This one is pretty much impossible. They have their core locked up and, other than Callahan, none of their guys are on contracts that would really be worth clearing out. Even without Callahan, adding Tavares would likely cost Kucherov or Palat/Johnson + in the future.
Vegas: Do I really need to explain? Why leave the Isles after all these years just to go to Vegas?
Edmonton: McDavid, Draisaitl, Tavares: pick 2.
Florida: I can't see Tavares joining such a volatile organization, plus I can't necessarily see them ponying up the necessary cash.
Unlikely:
Toronto: if they sign their big 3 for a combined 21mil, they will have ~53mil committed to 11 players (excluding Horton) in 2019-2020. That doesn't leave a ton of wiggle-room as is, and signing Tavares would bring them up ~63mil with at least 8 spots to fill. Usually, you'd say, "cross that bridge when you get there," but in this case you're talking about 3 top players (Matthews, Nylander, Marner) and you don't want to mess around with that. I think they are a relatively unlikely option
Dallas: Let's be clear - Nill would need to move Spezza for this to work. But that seems a small price to pay (that would yield its own rewards) in order to lock up Tavares. Trading Spezza and freeing up his 7.5m would leave Dallas with 48.5m committed to 11 players - all of which includes Bishop, Benn, Radulov, Seguin, Hanzal, Faksa, and Klingberg. It is possible, and they would have more wiggle room than Toronto (plus have the benefit of already having their stars locked up), but still a long-shot.
New York Rangers: Even with Nash, Miller, Hayes, Grabner and Skjei up for new contracts after this season, the Rangers don't have a ton of wiggle room (51m committed to 11 players). Those 3 RFAs (Miller, Hayes, Skjei) will run a cumulative tab of over 10m, leaving very little room to add Tavares + at least 5 other players. The only way this would be possible is if the Rangers could offload Staal without taking back any significant salary, but that seems incredibly unlikely.
Los Angeles: with 62m committed to 13 guys (and a new contract Due for Doughty the year after) this one just doesn't seem possible.
Winnipeg: Winnipeg has 41m committed to 10 players, with Ehlers, Trouba, Lowry and Little (amongst others) up for re-signing. Assuming their 3 RFAs get between 12-15m, that leaves them at ~54m committed to 13 players. Notably, Laine would be up for re-signing the next year. Let's assume he gets 7.5m. That brings it up to ~62m for 14 guys. Adding Tavares and retaining that core seems impossible (even if Little is allowed to walk and other salary is cleared).
Colorado: While the Avalanche could really use a guy like Tavares, I just can't see it happening given all that has gone on in their organization recently. It could definitely work but there will be a lot of moving parts and I can't see Tavares joining a scrapped-bare team. If Colorado is able to show signs of an impressive turn-around, I could see them making some sort of appeal to Tavares.
Possible:
Detroit: Johnny seems like the kind of guy who would love to restore the Winged Wheel to their former glory. They have the space for him short-term and long-term, and he'd be surrounded by a young, skilled core (Tatar, Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou, Rasmussen, Svechnikov, Bertuzzi, Svechnikov jr?). As a bonus - he'd be reunited with Frans Nielsen.
Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Tavares... it sounds ridiculous, but it's doable. It would take some serious gumption on the Penguins part, and on Tavares's part. Kessel and Maatta in, Tavares in, could it be as simple as that? Hagelin would likely be a casualty as well, but it's remarkably doable.
Ottawa: Ottawa has the ability to add Tavares at a reasonable free agent salary, but they would need to move Phaneuf or Ryan at some point. Doing so would likely be entirely dependent on how they perform in the preceding season, but I suspect at least one of them would be able to be given away. They would also need to let Turris walk. Ottawa has 52m committed to 14 players, but would still need to re-sign Stone, Ceci and Anderson, which would take between 10-15 mil. Assuming they lock all three up for 13m, Ottawa would have 55m committed to 17 players. Adding Tavares would be doable for the 2018-2019 season without making any other major roster adjustments, but the Sens would need to clear out a high salary player (Phaneuf/Ryan) in order to lock up Karlsson (and several other players) the next season. That said, if they could pull it off financially I think Ottawa would be a great fit for Tavares. Lots of really good complimentary players and depth players who can play next to skill and, of course, the most dynamic DMan in the league.
Buffalo: This is my favourite one. If Eichel signs for 9-10 mil, Buffalo will have ~56mil committed to 13 guys. They could make this happen, and Tavares-Eichel down the middle could be the best 1-2 punch at C next to Crosby and Malkin.
Calgary: Calgary is well set-up for the future with 55m committed to 13 players beyond this season. The Flames have their entire core locked-up, most of it long-term, and the only cumbersome contract is Troy Brouwer. It would be tough to move, but they could retain salary or find a reasonable way otherwise to make Tavares fit. Calgary has the back-end taken care of and adding Tavares would really round out their forward group and make them a true threat.
Vancouver: Vancouver has a ton of capspace (39m committed to 12 players) and will likely see a void created by the Sedins - if not at the end of this season, then soon afterwards. This will be a huge year for the Canucks in terms of getting their house in order and if they can take steps in the right direction, I could see Tavares having interest. I have no doubt the Nucks will make a hard pitch.
Boston: Boston has the space to make it happen (53m committed to 13 players) but I don't think it can work with their roster make-up unless they move Krejci. It is certainly possible, but this one would take more legwork. If the Bruins find a way to move Krejci for a top pair DMan, they could make an extremely enticing pitch to Tavares that would turn the franchise around and bring them into contender status.
Carolina: Carolina has a great back-end and some solid complimentary players up front. They have a lot of wiggle room with which to craft their roster and Tavares would be a natural fit in there is interest on his end.
New Jersey: Just like Carolina, this is a team that is starting to build a solid foundation but a need for the big pivotal piece. Again, if there is interest from Tavares, New Jersey is a team that can definitely make it happen.
Arizona: They have the flexibility to make it happen and a ton of young talent. It's a bit of a stretch but it would be a great fit on paper.
Inside Track:
Minnesota: They won't be able to retain Koivu, but again - a small price to pay for a player of Tavares' caliber. The Wild currently have ~55m committed to 15 players, and could simply let Koivu walk and sign Tavares. Minnesota is an attractive destination, the Wild have been on the brink forever and have never had that real, true superstar player that most teams have had at one point (especially the teams that have been successful). Tavares could be a great fit here.
St. Louis: Almost everything I wrote about Minnesota could apply to St. Louis here. Replace "Koivu" with "Stastny". St. Louis has 58m committed to 14 guys, many of whom are long-term pieces. Tavares would have the #1C position locked up for 7 years and would spend that entire time playing next to one of the best sniping wingers in the league (Tarasenko).
Anaheim: The Ducks already have 56m committed to 12 players, but they have already given out most of their major contracts (Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Rackell, Silfverberg, Eaves, Lindholm, Vatanen, Fowler, Gibson, Miller). Adding Tavares would take a balancing act, sure, but adding 7-9 players to a roster that already boasts the aforementioned talent for the cost of 6-10 million shouldn't be too hard. They are currently filling those spots for ~12m, but that includes Bieksa at 4m (4m which will need to be spent far more cleverly if they hope to add Tavares).
Philadelphia: The Flyers might be poised for a big rebound season. If they follow through, they will be in the position to add a huge piece next off-season. Philly has 17 NHLers under-contract next year at a caphit of just 57.5m. Adding Tavares would be very doable and I could see puck-crazy Philly being an intruiging place for Johnny to play.
Nashville: Nashville is in a similar position as Philly is financially (16 contracts @ 60m). They have RyJo, but Tavares is on a whole different level. If both sides are motivated - and I can't see why they wouldn't be - this looks like it would be a good fit.
Montreal: The Habs need a top 6 centerman, thats no secret to anyone. Tavares would be the ultimate coup and might just be the missing piece that the Habs need in order to seriously compete. With 58m committed to 15 players and no significant contracts left to dole out, Les Habitants could be a perfect fit for Tavares.
San Jose: San Jose has 53m committed to 12 players and Thornton could very well be on his way out. All their significant contracts are in order and this could be the one move that can save the Sharks from the inevitable shockwaves that will occur from Thorntons departure.
Columbus: Almost a match made in heaven. With 45m committed to 14 players and a lack of a big-time topline center, the Blue Jackets have a lot to offer Tavares. He would get a top end support staff at forward and one of the strongest back ends in the league. They have few significant players to re-sign and are set up to be a strong team for a long time. If there is interest on Johnny's end, I could definitely see this one going down.