Speculation: If season is cancelled, how will the NHL deal with the draft positions?

[JoePreacher]

Given that we are experiencing an unprecedented situation, if the NHL cancels the remainder of the season and playoffs (which seems inevitable at this point), what formula do you see them applying to the draft?

Use current standings based on point percentage?

Go with 2005 style lottery with weighted odds based on recent performance?

Open lottery where each pick is given equal odds?

Make up a completely new formula specific to this situation?

Click to read more...

 

[BondraTime]

0 chance they go with the 2005 model, that’s not even an option with one season having 0% of games played and the other having 85% of games played. Also 0 chance they go with an open lottery with each pick being given equal odds.

Likely they will adjust the odds of all teams in the lottery, meaning the Sens may see ~1-2% lower odds while still remaining in 2nd and 3rd. Teams that are in the playoffs now may get very small odds (1st overall team getting 0.1% chance or something of that nature). Basically need to find 3-6% to give to the teams currently in the playoffs.

They may also reintroduce a 3-5 max jump for teams, though I’m sure that would be a no go from all the teams in the lottery already.

Highest probability to me if no more games are played is a readjustment of the odds with all teams involved and the draft order remaining the same as the standings are now.

This is clearly unprecedented, but I also wonder if there is something in the CBA that would say that past xxx date, the draft rules are set in stone. I’m sure they could find a way around that if need be.

 

[dumbdick]

Yep. I think they'll extrapolate the odds out to the playoff teams for the lottery picks, but otherwise the same rules. Draft order using ppg.

 

[dumbdick]

I'm much more interested in when they announce this stuff. Lottery would normally be drawn right about now.

 

[Xspyrit]

Yeah if they go with a "2005 type lottery" or even worse an "open lottery", I would instantly stop following the NHL and I wouldn't be alone.

 

[bert]

In the OHL they just went business as usual and crowned no champion. I hope the NHL follows suit, 85% of the season has passed at that point you know what you are.

Sucks for the top teams but as Sens fans we lost an entire season when our team was peaking then lost a bunch of players because of the brand new cap. Sometimes life isnt fair, in this instance its not fair for the top teams. But that doesnt mean they go changing everything its not fair to punish the horrible teams too. As they say, two wrongs dont make a right.

 

[Six Assets]

I'm confident lottery odds won't change

 

[Masked]

I've suggested what I believe is the best solution in another draft thread.

Have the existing entry draft lottery but hold another weighted draft lottery for the last three spots in the lottery for the teams that finished 1-19 in the standings with the better odds for the teams with the lower points percentage.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

THe lottery system is already out of whack as it is. Allowing a team to leap frog 12 spots over other teams that clearly need the help is f'ed up.

 

[HSF]

dunno which insider said it (maybe lebrun) but he thinks lottery will stay the same

 

[dumbdick]

THe lottery system is already out of whack as it is. Allowing a team to leap frog 12 spots over other teams that clearly need the help is f'ed up.

If it makes you feel better, the 15th worst team will only get 1st overall every 100 years on average, so you'll probably never see it in your lifetime.

I really like the idea of drawing all the spots for non-playoff teams. Keep the odds as is, and just draw every spot until the whole order is sorted out. Most teams wouldn't move much, but it would be a hell of a good television event to watch as they reveal the spots down to 1. There would be a few big winners and losers every year, but statistically the best and worst teams would almost always be within a few picks of the top/bottom of the order. This should further reduce incentives for late-season tanking too.

 

[bert]

dunno which insider said it (maybe lebrun) but he thinks lottery will stay the same

Garrioch posted this.

GARRIOCH: League executives don’t expect to see major changes to the draft lottery

 

[jhutter]

The whole premise of the draft is to increase league parity. Giving the Bruins even a .1% chance at a lottery pick is .1% too much, and would be an embarrassment to the league if it (albeit unlikely) occurred. With 85% of the season completed, the weak teams have established themselves as weak teams, and the strong teams have established themselves as strong teams.

I would be disappointed if the Sens dropped to 4th and 5th, but I wouldn't consider it a massive failing of the premise of the draft. It would be hard to say the same if a team with 20 pts more than the Senators and 40 pts more than the Wings had their odds increased and received a lottery pick.

 

[Xspyrit]

In the OHL they just went business as usual and crowned no champion. I hope the NHL follows suit, 85% of the season has passed at that point you know what you are.

Sucks for the top teams but as Sens fans we lost an entire season when our team was peaking then lost a bunch of players because of the brand new cap. Sometimes life isnt fair, in this instance its not fair for the top teams. But that doesnt mean they go changing everything its not fair to punish the horrible teams too. As they say, two wrongs dont make a right.

Well said, we were the most affected team of the 2004 lockout, we paid probaby a Cup and maybe more contending years with that strict cap. So I don't want to hear Avs fans crying about something that is not in anybody's control.

Life is what it is, luck and circumstances are always involved. Nobody outside of life itself is robbing you.

 

[Cosmix]

Use current standings based on point percentage to determine regular season ending positions.

Award Presidents trophy and draft lottery positions as per current rules. Bottom 15 teams are in the draft lottery using current rules. Top 16 teams get draft positions according to point percentage.

Simple to explain and implement. No surprises beyond the current covid virus crisis. If there are any ties, resolve with a coin toss or whatever die or draw suits the purpose.

 

[Super Cake]

I don't know how they are going to do it, but i am preparing myself to be extremely pissed off at what they decide.

 

[thinkwild]

I was trying to understand the logic behind allowing all teams into the lottery. I guess its because the lottery is for teams that missed the playoffs and no one made them? But then still the top 16 teams have a 0% chance.

So it must just be between the Rangers and Preds then over who gets that last lottery pick as they are the ones affected depending on how the lottery teams are determined? I guess both teams will want to tank on that vote.

 

[BondraTime]

I’d be willing to bet major amounts of money the odds will not be staying the same and playoff teams will have some form of % and/or lottery.

 

[jhutter]

I was trying to understand the logic behind allowing all teams into the lottery. I guess its because the lottery is for teams that missed the playoffs and no one made them? But then still the top 16 teams have a 0% chance.

So it must just be between the Rangers and Preds then over who gets that last lottery pick as they are the ones affected depending on how the lottery teams are determined? I guess both teams will want to tank on that vote.

There is no logic to it. The lottery is for building parity, and it just so happens that that is accomplished by non-playoff teams receiving the ability to win the draft lottery. Allowing all teams to be in the lottery because no one "made the playoffs" would be antithetical to the premise of the lottery itself. The premise of the lottery isn't for compensating teams for not having the ability to play playoff games due to black swan events.

 

[Daffy]

I’d be willing to bet major amounts of money the odds will not be staying the same and playoff teams will have some form of % and/or lottery.

In this scenario do you think 5th and 6th would still be our worst case scenario?

 

[BondraTime]

In this scenario do you think 5th and 6th would still be our worst case scenario?

Yes

 

[dumbdick]

There is no logic to it. The lottery is for building parity, and it just so happens that that is accomplished by non-playoff teams receiving the ability to win the draft lottery. Allowing all teams to be in the lottery because no one "made the playoffs" would be antithetical to the premise of the lottery itself. The premise of the lottery isn't for compensating teams for not having the ability to play playoff games due to black swan events.

I 100% agree with this point. I 50% agree that it will hold up when they make a decision.

 

[JoePreacher]

Just my opinion, but I feel like many here are guilty of wishful thinking in assuming there will be no significant adjustment to the draft lottery. I see the logic in keeping the current standings and format and feel that is a likely scenario, I’m just not sure dismissing other alternatives as being impossible is logical.

I’m betting the same question on the main board would elicit less groupthink.

 

[jhutter]

Just my opinion, but I feel like many here are guilty of wishful thinking in assuming there will be no significant adjustment to the draft lottery. I see the logic in keeping the current standings and format and feel that is a likely scenario, I’m just not sure dismissing other alternatives as being impossible is logical.

I’m betting the same question on the main board would elicit less groupthink.

How do you define "significant adjustment," and what do you believe is the intent of the historical practice of having weak teams draft earlier than strong teams (generally speaking)? I believe that there will be a very minor adjustment, as every team hasn't played the same amount of games.

Of course as fans of the Ottawa Senators, we hope that nothing is changed. Using logic, it doesn't make sense to make significant changes to the system. Do you change the system by 50% because only 85% of the season was played? The purpose of the draft isn't to compensate for things that did, didn't or may happen. It's to establish parity, period. Anything that detracts from achieving parity isn't consistent with the purpose.

 

[JoePreacher]

How do you define "significant adjustment," and what do you believe is the intent of the historical practice of having weak teams draft earlier than strong teams (generally speaking)? I believe that there will be a very minor adjustment, as every team hasn't played the same amount of games.

Of course as fans of the Ottawa Senators, we hope that nothing is changed. Using logic, it doesn't make sense to make significant changes to the system. Do you change the system by 50% because only 85% of the season was played? The purpose of the draft isn't to compensate for things that did, didn't or may happen. It's to establish parity, period. Anything that detracts from achieving parity isn't consistent with the purpose.

The purpose of the draft is to ensure all teams have access to players and limit the players rights to seek employment wherever they want to play.