Speculation: If season is cancelled, how will the NHL deal with the draft positions?

Bubba Pilks

Registered User
Jun 21, 2019
208
238
Just my opinion, but I feel like many here are guilty of wishful thinking in assuming there will be no significant adjustment to the draft lottery. I see the logic in keeping the current standings and format and feel that is a likely scenario, I’m just not sure dismissing other alternatives as being impossible is logical.

I’m betting the same question on the main board would elicit less groupthink.

The question was asked on the main board and you were right. Less groupthink........ Though most of that was from 1 Avs fan making 396 of the posts spewing the same (draft lottery is for all teams not in the playoffs) over and over again.
 

jhutter

Registered User
Dec 23, 2016
1,189
819
The purpose of the draft is to ensure all teams have access to players and limit the players rights to seek employment wherever they want to play.

I should've been clearer. I meant the purpose of weaker teams drafting earlier than stronger teams, generally speaking.
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
64,989
49,506
As is pts or minor tweak to pt % same number of teams in the lottery ...
 
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JoePreacher

Registered User
Apr 6, 2020
17
11
I should've been clearer. I meant the purpose of weaker teams drafting earlier than stronger teams, generally speaking.
I agree that as a general principle the draft order is designed to help the weaker team, however the NHL has already taken steps to lessen that impact.

With the playoffs wiped out, I can see the other side of the coin that a revamping of the rules would be more equitable to the teams at the top of the current standings. Teams that advance further in the playoffs get lower draft picks, at least in part, to compensate for the financial windfall of home playoff games. Only last year, the president trophy winning Tampa Bay lightning got 2 home playoff games. Why should Boston get the worst draft position without the $ from being a cup winner?

The pressure to change the format will be immense.
 

jhutter

Registered User
Dec 23, 2016
1,189
819
I agree that as a general principle the draft order is designed to help the weaker team, however the NHL has already taken steps to lessen that impact.

With the playoffs wiped out, I can see the other side of the coin that a revamping of the rules would be more equitable to the teams at the top of the current standings. Teams that advance further in the playoffs get lower draft picks, at least in part, to compensate for the financial windfall of home playoff games. Only last year, the president trophy winning Tampa Bay lightning got 2 home playoff games. Why should Boston get the worst draft position without the $ from being a cup winner?

The pressure to change the format will be immense.

We've both agreed that:

a) The purpose of the draft is to ensure all teams have access to players and limit the players rights to seek employment wherever they want to play; and
b) The purpose of having weak teams drafting earlier than weak teams is to attempt to achieve parity.

I would have to imagine that the bulk of league executives would agree on these basic, commonsense premises.

Where does the compensation for lost playoff $ come into play? Does the entire premise of the draft change because teams lost playoff $? It would be unprecedented to adjust the draft to compensate teams for lost playoff $. Seriously, imagine a scenario where Boston, Washington or Tampa Bay land Lafreniere. Would the lost $ from a non-playoff team not receiving Lafreniere not be greater than the lost $ from not playing playoff games? How would that be justified?
 
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JoePreacher

Registered User
Apr 6, 2020
17
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Where does the compensation for lost playoff $ come into play? Does the entire premise of the draft change because teams lost playoff $? It would be unprecedented to adjust the draft to compensate teams for lost playoff $. Seriously, imagine a scenario where Boston, Washington or Tampa Bay land Lafreniere. Would the lost $ from a non-playoff team not receiving Lafreniere not be greater than the lost $ from not playing playoff games? How would that be justified?
When has the league ever lost the end of the season, playoffs and playoff revenue before?

We are in uncharted territory. The league has a wide range of options available and may choose to apply new rationale to a new situation.
 

BK201

Registered User
Apr 11, 2011
10,815
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My mystic powers of prediction suggest we are getting screwed somehow but can't see it yet.

And when I asked the magic 8 ball if we were gonna get screwed it said " ask again later" "then concentrate and ask again" but finally it said " you may rely on it.

So there you have it folks magic 8 ball says were getting screwed.
 
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Super Cake

Registered User
Jun 24, 2013
30,920
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I agree that as a general principle the draft order is designed to help the weaker team, however the NHL has already taken steps to lessen that impact.

With the playoffs wiped out, I can see the other side of the coin that a revamping of the rules would be more equitable to the teams at the top of the current standings. Teams that advance further in the playoffs get lower draft picks, at least in part, to compensate for the financial windfall of home playoff games. Only last year, the president trophy winning Tampa Bay lightning got 2 home playoff games. Why should Boston get the worst draft position without the $ from being a cup winner?

The pressure to change the format will be immense.

Who cares about Boston. They don't have a 1st this year. So they are screwed no matter what happens with the draft lottery.
 

Super Cake

Registered User
Jun 24, 2013
30,920
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We've both agreed that:

a) The purpose of the draft is to ensure all teams have access to players and limit the players rights to seek employment wherever they want to play; and
b) The purpose of having weak teams drafting earlier than weak teams is to attempt to achieve parity.

I would have to imagine that the bulk of league executives would agree on these basic, commonsense premises.

Where does the compensation for lost playoff $ come into play? Does the entire premise of the draft change because teams lost playoff $? It would be unprecedented to adjust the draft to compensate teams for lost playoff $. Seriously, imagine a scenario where Boston, Washington or Tampa Bay land Lafreniere. Would the lost $ from a non-playoff team not receiving Lafreniere not be greater than the lost $ from not playing playoff games? How would that be justified?

Anaheim has the Bruins 1st round pick this year. I just found that out yesterday.
 

Karl Eriksson

Boring!
Apr 12, 2007
10,929
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Ottawa
Could see all teams have a chance at the lottery, with really small odds for top teams. Like 0.25% for 1st place, 0.3% for 2nd and so on. Wouldn’t dilute the bottom 3 that much.
 

HSF

Registered User
Sep 3, 2008
26,058
7,601
Just my opinion, but I feel like many here are guilty of wishful thinking in assuming there will be no significant adjustment to the draft lottery. I see the logic in keeping the current standings and format and feel that is a likely scenario, I’m just not sure dismissing other alternatives as being impossible is logical.

I’m betting the same question on the main board would elicit less groupthink.
No I think it’s a mistake to think that just cause the playoffs don’t occur that they will change the lottery

insiders have said so far that they believe the draft will remain the same

The draft is not a ‘reward’


I suspect what will happen is that the league at some point will declare the regular season is done and do the draft lottery then on a later date decide if the playoffs are happening . There have been talks of an expanded playoff but I don’t see it happen . This season is done
 
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Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
16,288
8,100
Victoria
The entire league lost playoff revenue as the revenue sharing pot is funded mostly by I think 35% of playoff revenues.

Anyways, they’re not going to do a full lottery with playoff teams involved, that would defeat the entire purpose of the draft lottery. No matter how things ended, those teams were never going to have a shot at top picks.

Compensating teams for not winning the cup has nothing to do with the draft lottery, they can get a big hug.
 
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JoePreacher

Registered User
Apr 6, 2020
17
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The entire league lost playoff revenue as the revenue sharing pot is funded mostly by I think 35% of playoff revenues.

Anyways, they’re not going to do a full lottery with playoff teams involved, that would defeat the entire purpose of the draft lottery. No matter how things ended, those teams were never going to have a shot at top picks.

Compensating teams for not winning the cup has nothing to do with the draft lottery, they can get a big hug.
Hey, just wondering where you got the 35% figure from?

Big hug? Strange thing to say.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
34,828
9,251
All I know for sure....somehow we're going to get screwed. Always seems to happen when we're on the cusp of getting something nice for the Sens.

My best guess: I get the feeling all teams will be in the lottery (playoff teams with a stupidly low chance like 1% or something) and instead of the top 3 picks being in the lotto, they expand it to maybe the top 5 picks. And you know damned well the Penguins are hitting one of those lotto slots.
 

Crosside

Registered User
Aug 1, 2018
4,724
1,842
All I know for sure....somehow we're going to get screwed. Always seems to happen when we're on the cusp of getting something nice for the Sens.

My best guess: I get the feeling all teams will be in the lottery (playoff teams with a stupidly low chance like 1% or something) and instead of the top 3 picks being in the lotto, they expand it to maybe the top 5 picks. And you know damned well the Penguins are hitting one of those lotto slots.
I would agree for all team in the lottery but just for the first. After we go by the standing
 

Super Cake

Registered User
Jun 24, 2013
30,920
6,356
All I know for sure....somehow we're going to get screwed. Always seems to happen when we're on the cusp of getting something nice for the Sens.

My best guess: I get the feeling all teams will be in the lottery (playoff teams with a stupidly low chance like 1% or something) and instead of the top 3 picks being in the lotto, they expand it to maybe the top 5 picks. And you know damned well the Penguins are hitting one of those lotto slots.

I would say no to expanding it to top 5 picks considering there would be a chance that both the Sens draft picks could be pushed all the way to 7 and 8.
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
16,288
8,100
Victoria
Hey, just wondering where you got the 35% figure from?

Big hug? Strange thing to say.

I read about how the revenue sharing pot was generated, I believe one of the major streams was playoff revenue. Teams don’t get to keep everything they get, I thought the number was 35% that went to revenue sharing.

The ‘hug’ was my way of saying that while it’s a shame that no cup will likely be awarded this year due to a pandemic, it doesn’t entitle playoff teams to a consolation prize of having a chance at winning the draft lottery over the truly terrible teams. The draft lottery is the consolation prize for the teams that suck, so that one day they too could have the luxury of being good enough to have a team that makes the playoffs, that could one day be cancelled by another pandemic.

I did not offer to give the hugs, I’d deliver a boot to the nuts instead for even suggesting such a ridiculous notion.
 

JoePreacher

Registered User
Apr 6, 2020
17
11
I read about how the revenue sharing pot was generated, I believe one of the major streams was playoff revenue. Teams don’t get to keep everything they get, I thought the number was 35% that went to revenue sharing..
Where did you read this?
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
15,985
9,547
I found a couple of references to 35% but couldn't link the articles...here's a quote

The new NHL CBA dictates that teams participating in the Stanley Cup playoffs contribute a flat 35 percent of gate receipts from home playoff games into the league's revenue sharing program.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
15,985
9,547
There's an awful lot at play here, starting with IF they cancel the season

IF that happens, there is no model that makes 31 teams happy. Imo the fairest way of doing it is establishing finish based on points percentage which would see only 15 teams eligible for the lottery and no change to the odds

If it was that, personally I'd take the 16 playoff teams, split them into 4 pools, and weight odds based on point percentage and conduct a lottery for each of 4 pods. So the bottom pod has a weighted lottery for 16, 17, 18 and 19 0A and so on.
 
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JoePreacher

Registered User
Apr 6, 2020
17
11
I found a couple of references to 35% but couldn't link the articles...here's a quote

The new NHL CBA dictates that teams participating in the Stanley Cup playoffs contribute a flat 35 percent of gate receipts from home playoff games into the league's revenue sharing program.
Why can’t you provide a link?
 

JoePreacher

Registered User
Apr 6, 2020
17
11
There's an awful lot at play here, starting with IF they cancel the season

IF that happens, there is no model that makes 31 teams happy. Imo the fairest way of doing it is establishing finish based on points percentage which would see only 15 teams eligible for the lottery and no change to the odds

If it was that, personally I'd take the 16 playoff teams, split them into 4 pools, and weight odds based on point percentage and conduct a lottery for each of 4 pods. So the bottom pod has a weighted lottery for 16, 17, 18 and 19 0A and so on.
I agree with two of your points.
First, it will be a unique solution to a unique situation.
Second, no solution will make all 31 teams happy. Sens fans need to be prepared for a solution that makes us unhappy and stop being dismissive of suggestions that the rules will be altered.
 

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