If R.F.A. Offer Sheets Were Not Matched - What would have the compensation looked like?

[DL44]

This is just a game.
This is a flawed game.
It's the offseason, roll with it.

Instant Flaws to this game - If the teams received the player they attempted to sign, they would of likely drafted lower. Team receiving the pick likely would not of picked the players picked with those picks.

On the radio, they mentioned when the Oilers offered Vanek 7 x $7, the compensation would of been the Oilers next 4 1st rounders...
(Even tho if the Oilers got Vanek, they would of certainly drafted in different positions - but let's ignore that).

Buffalo would of received: Myers* (ironically), Paajarvi, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins.
*Ana received the Oil 2008 1st(12th) as a result of the Penner comp. They traded it to LA, who traded it to Buf.

Penner compensation (original picks - not what Burke did with them): Tyler Myers, J. Schultz, Krill Petrov

Am I safe to assume Weber would of gave the Preds 4 first rounders from Philly?
If so:
To Nashville: Sanhiem Stanley, Morin, Provorov, Stanley Rubtsov

Anyone know some of the others?

Ryan Kesler	Sept 12, 2006 [4]	1 year, $1.9 million	Vancouver Canucks	Philadelphia Flyers	TJ Brennan
Thomas Vanek	July 6, 2007 [23]	7 years, $50 million	Buffalo Sabres	Edmonton Oilers	Myers, Paajarvi, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins-
Dustin Penner	July 26, 2007	5 years, $21.5 million	Anaheim Ducks	Edmonton Oilers
David Backes	July 1, 2008	3 years, $7.5 million	St. Louis Blues	Vancouver Canucks	Anton Rodin	-
Steve Bernier	July 8, 2008	1 year, $2.5 million	Vancouver Canucks	St. Louis Blues	Brent Ponich	-
Niklas Hjalmarsson	July 9, 2010	4 years, $14 million	Chicago Blackhawks	San Jose Sharks	Zach Philips, Justin Sefton	-
Shea Weber	July 18, 2012[24]	14 years, $110 million	Nashville Predators	Philadelphia Flyers	Sanhiem Stanley, Morin, Provorov, Stanley
Ryan O'Reilly	February 28, 2013[26]	2 years, $10 million	Colorado Avalanche	Calgary Flames	Monahan, Kanzig	-
Sebastian Aho	July 1, 2019[27]	5 years, $42 million	Carolina Hurricanes	Montreal Canadiens	TBD[28]	-

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[GirardSpinorama]

O’reilly’s would have resulted in Monahan.. and the flames wouldnt even have o’reilly lol.

 

[StreetHawk]

Thats also assuming that those teams performed the same with that rfa signed player.

 

[DL44]

Thats also assuming that those teams performed the same with that rfa signed player.

I mentioned that as well.

 

[freakydallas13]

Flyers 2016 first round pick was traded back to select Rubtsov, Logan Stanley was taken in the original spot, which means the compensation for signing Weber would be 4 first round picks that were all defencemen.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Phillys 2nd rounder in 07 would have been the comp for Kesler, so I believe that was TJ Brennan

 

[Brodeur]

Some fun ones from the pre-2005 CBA. The opportunity cost would have been:

Carolina/Fedorov: 1998-11 (RW Jeff Heerema), 1999-16 (RD David Tanabe), 2000-14 (C Vaclav Nedorost), 2001-15 (LD Igor Kniazev), 2002-25 (G Cam Ward)

NYR/Sakic: 1998-7 (C Manny Malhotra), 1999-11 (LW Oleg Saprykin), 2000-8 (RW Nikita Alexeev), 2001-10 (G Dan Blackburn), 2002-10 (LW Eric Nystrom)

Chicago/Tkachuk: 1996-21 (LW Marco Sturm), 1997-13 (LW Dan Cleary), 1998-10 (C Nik Antropov), 1999-4 (RW Pavel Brendl), 2000-10 (C Mikhail Yakubov)

At least for me, these were all in that 1996-2002 range of drafts that were average/below average, so the teams probably made the right choice to match and retain the player. Also an amusing side story that I didn't know until a few years ago was that Colorado was able to match the frontloaded Sakic offer thanks in part to the success of the movie Air Force One. Somebody in the Avs ownership group had a producing stake in the movie, so when that became a hit, they had an influx of cash to pay Sakic 17 million in that the first twelve months.

 

[DL44]

O’reilly’s would have resulted in Monahan.. and the flames wouldnt even have o’reilly lol.

As well as their 3rd... Keegan Kanzig.

 

[Brodeur]

Going back to the original post:

Backes ~ Vancouver's 2009 2nd round pick (53rd - LW Anton Rodin)
Bernier ~ St. Louis' 2009 2nd round pick (48th - LD Brett Ponich)
Hjalmarsson ~ San Jose's 2011 1st round pick (28th - C Zack Phillips), San Jose's 2011 3rd round pick (88th - RD Justin Sefton)

 

[DL44]

Backes for the Canucks 2nd : Anton Rodin
Bernier for the Blues 2nd : Brent Ponich
Hjalmarsson for : Philips, Sefton


Moral of the Story : Don't bother offer sheeting anyone - it ONLY inflates the market. It is almost Always better to keep the SURE thing rather than a couple of lottery tickets.

This exercise also reinforces the idea : Draft picks can be greatly over rated here.


Offer sheets should be used primarily to screw with the other team cap...
unless you are Bergeven looking for PR... then sign em to a capfriendly deal..

 

[JianYang]

Some fun ones from the pre-2005 CBA. The opportunity cost would have been:

Carolina/Fedorov: 1998-11 (RW Jeff Heerema), 1999-16 (RD David Tanabe), 2000-14 (C Vaclav Nedorost), 2001-15 (LD Igor Kniazev), 2002-25 (G Cam Ward)

NYR/Sakic: 1998-7 (C Manny Malhotra), 1999-11 (LW Oleg Saprykin), 2000-8 (RW Nikita Alexeev), 2001-10 (G Dan Blackburn), 2002-10 (LW Eric Nystrom)

Chicago/Tkachuk: 1996-21 (LW Marco Sturm), 1997-13 (LW Dan Cleary), 1998-10 (C Nik Antropov), 1999-4 (RW Pavel Brendl), 2000-10 (C Mikhail Yakubov)

At least for me, these were all in that 1996-2002 range of drafts that were average/below average, so the teams probably made the right choice to match and retain the player. Also an amusing side story that I didn't know until a few years ago was that Colorado was able to match the frontloaded Sakic offer thanks in part to the success of the movie Air Force One. Somebody in the Avs ownership group had a producing stake in the movie, so when that became a hit, they had an influx of cash to pay Sakic 17 million in that the first twelve months.

I have no recollection of a Tkachuk offer sheet for some reason.

I also remember the leafs made an offer sheet for ohlund in the 90's. It would be interesting to see what those picks ended up being, even though that was on a much lower pay scale.

 

[Cane mutiny]

I think because the OS hinders the decision making and off season progression of the targeted team (due to the financial implications involved and possible loss an important member of the team), that the team pursuing a targeted player should forfeit a draft pick also in the case the offer is matched by his team. Similar to a penalty on a lost coach's challenge. The pick lost should be the median pick that coincides with the compensation for the player involved. Therefore, tending an OS would not be totally free for the extending team, and would be a serious endeavor and not taken lightly.

 

[Brodeur]

I have no recollection of a Tkachuk offer sheet for some reason.

I also remember the leafs made an offer sheet for ohlund in the 90's. It would be interesting to see what those picks ended up being, even though that was on a much lower pay scale.

Here's an old link on Tkachuk: HAWKS' PLAN JETTISONED; TKACHUK OFFER MATCHED

Chicago was aiming to have a "Beanpot/Beantown" line with Tkachuk-Roenick-Amonte. Ironically Tkachuk-Roenick would end up in Phoenix together.

It was slightly before my time, but the prospect offer sheets on Selanne/Ohlund apparently would not have netted compensation: https://www.apnews.com/ed9ce477cd8447b204f541613b5b0836

TORONTO (AP) _ Swedish defenseman Mattias Ohlund, an unsigned 1994 first-round draft pick of the Vancouver Canucks, signed an offer sheet with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday.

Ohlund signed a five-year, $10 million offer sheet with Toronto, according to his agent, Michael Barnett, which includes a $7.5 million signing bonus.

If Vancouver wants to retain Ohlund, it will have to match Toronto’s offer. Ohlund is a Group 4 free agent, which means the Canucks have the right to match any offer, but won’t receive compensation if they don’t. It also means the Canucks can’t trade Ohlund for a year if they do match the offer.

 

[Brodeur]

And just to complete the OP's chart:

Penner = Edmonton's 2008 1st (12th - RD Tyler Myers), Edmonton's 2008 2nd (43rd - RD Justin Schultz), Edmonton's 2008 3rd (73rd - LW Kirill Petrov)

 

[JianYang]

Here's an old link on Tkachuk: HAWKS' PLAN JETTISONED; TKACHUK OFFER MATCHED

Chicago was aiming to have a "Beanpot/Beantown" line with Tkachuk-Roenick-Amonte. Ironically Tkachuk-Roenick would end up in Phoenix together.

It was slightly before my time, but the prospect offer sheets on Selanne/Ohlund apparently would not have netted compensation: https://www.apnews.com/ed9ce477cd8447b204f541613b5b0836

Ahh, a "group 4" free agent. It's been a long time since I heard that terminology, but it rings a bell now that you mention it.

 

[Roomtemperature]

O’reilly’s would have resulted in Monahan.. and the flames wouldnt even have o’reilly lol.

That was never confirmed and the PA would have fought that

 

[Dirty Dan]

4 1sts is brutal, would be worth for mcdavid

 

[DL44]

I think because the OS hinders the decision making and off season progression of the targeted team (due to the financial implications involved and possible loss an important member of the team), that the team pursuing a targeted player should forfeit a draft pick also in the case the offer is matched by his team. Similar to a penalty on a lost coach's challenge. The pick lost should be the median pick that coincides with the compensation for the player involved. Therefore, tending an OS would not be totally free for the extending team, and would be a serious endeavor and not taken lightly.

That would virtually wipe em out.
Aho was the the first one 6 yrs... you wouldn’t see another again.

Nor would the NHLPA go for it... the mere threat and the occasional offer sheet helps increase player leverage in negotiations... this would hinder that.

 

[Flukeshot]

It really demonstrates how overvalued picks are here. If you've got a proven NHL talent and your team is in a position to ensure those firsts won't be lottery than teams should strongly pursue offer sheet options.

There are only a few instances in there where I wouldn't rather have the player than the picks.

And of course that's why most are matched.

 

[Rich Nixon]

It really demonstrates how overvalued picks are here. If you've got a proven NHL talent and your team is in a position to ensure those firsts won't be lottery than teams should strongly pursue offer sheet options.

There are only a few instances in there where I wouldn't rather have the player than the picks.

And of course that's why most are matched.

I think the Sabres, in retrospect, would gladly take Hall and RNH rather than paying Vanek $50 million, and Provorov, Sanheim, and even Morin are a pretty good consolation prize for not giving Shea Weber a 35 year contract. Sure, they turned him into Subban, but then they just turned Subban into some 2nds and assorted goods, so...meh.

That said, Vanek was a very good player for Buffalo, and I don't think anyone in 2007 could have predicted the prolonged epoch of suck that the Oilers were about to embark on.

Not sure who Sanheim Stanley is though.

 

[Cane mutiny]

That would virtually wipe em out.
Aho was the the first one 6 yrs... you wouldn’t see another again.

Nor would the NHLPA go for it... the mere threat and the occasional offer sheet helps increase player leverage in negotiations... this would hinder that.

I don't think it would wipe OS's out completely, and if a team can't afford to give up a 3rd or 4th round pick for intruding on another teams off season planning, then they're probably not in a position to make the offer. The offended team should get some small competition for their inconvenience imho. I know many won't agree, and that's ok.

 

[DL44]

I don't think it would wipe OS's out completely, and if a team can't afford to give up a 3rd or 4th round pick for intruding on another teams off season planning, then they're probably not in a position to make the offer. The offended team should get some small competition for their inconvenience imho. I know many won't agree, and that's ok.

Well.. put it this way, would your suggestion increase or decrease chances/threat of offer sheets?

 

[tony d]

Thanks for that. Imagine if Colorado had gotten another 1st rounder in 1998. They had 4 already. I wonder if a 5th would have been enough to trade up to Tampa for #1 and Lecavalier. There would have been a good replacement for Sakic.

 

[Treb]

4 1sts is brutal, would be worth for mcdavid

History seem to disagree. Chances are that the 4 1st rounder become less valuable than the top3 fwd or top 2 D you offersheet.

 

[These Are The Days]

The Oilers without Hallsy or RNH for the sake of Vanek. Holy Christ...