Seravalli: If Capitals retain 50 percent on Dowd, he could be traded for a first round pick

[ChrisProngersEYE]

Can he get a 1st with retention? I seriously Dowd it.

(in the nic of time too)

Well played....well played

 

[PensandCaps]

IMO first round picks, even low ones, are valued in the millions. This isn't worth it to save a few hundred thousand on cap.

Again, you could probably convert a decent winger or even a defenseman to C and end up with something more valuable than Dowd in your 4c slot.

Lol what? Dowd is a very very good 4C, passable 3C.

 

[PensandCaps]

Yeah they are pretty much the same players, Monahan only has nearly triple his production.

Dowd is also used very differently. Certainly fits more contenders than a Monahan does. Who needs PP time and offensive deployment.

Dowd can fit more contenders easily since he can score 5v5 in a defensive role.

Monahan's 5v5 stats aren't so great, so if a contender already had a set PP, he is pretty useless to them.

 

[Kevzzz]

Just because one dumb GM spent a 1st on a player slightly better than yours, doesn’t mean all GM’s will spend a first rounder.

Dowd is simply not enough of a needle mover to warrant a 1st rounder (neither is Monahan). Only way this makes sense is if the cabinet is bare and this becomes a sellers market (still unsure I would be happy as a fan)

As one other person stated above, if you are going to spend a late first on someone like Dowd, why not just package together another one and go after someone that is multiple levels better? If the Penguins sell Guentzel, two firsts is a good starting point.

Monahan slightly better than Dowd ? C'mon

 

[Pebble live]

These prices are just stupid lol you're going to see CHL style trades here soon where 7 picks are sent for a single player.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Monahan slightly better than Dowd ? C'mon

Is there any rebuttal or actual input to discuss? Not really sure what you expect me to come back with if you offer no insight or educated response to why you feel like this opinion is so outlandish.

Nic Dowd is a very good defensive forward. But there’s a very good reason why he isn’t deployed in the offensive zone. It’s because he is not very good at offense. A career high of 24 points is a great indicator of that. Only 13 points this year so he’s about right where his averages are.

If a GM wants to waste a 1st rounder for a 4th line C, be my guest I guess. It may happen. I believe the contract flexibility is more worth a 1st rounder than the actual player in this scenario.

 

[Kevzzz]

Is there any rebuttal or actual input to discuss? Not really sure what you expect me to come back with if you offer no insight or educated response to why you feel like this opinion is so outlandish.

Nic Dowd is a very good defensive forward. But there’s a very good reason why he isn’t deployed in the offensive zone. It’s because he is not very good at offense. A career high of 24 points is a great indicator of that. Only 13 points this year so he’s about right where his averages are.

If a GM wants to waste a 1st rounder for a 4th line C, be my guest I guess. It may happen. I believe the contract flexibility is more worth a 1st rounder than the actual player in this scenario.

You're right.

N. Dowd is a really good 4C. I love is defensive game. The truth now is that he have no other utility than a bottom 6 player than can play PK which it's important, I don't argue that.

In the case of Monahan, he's more versatile than Dowd. If Winnipeg lose some players down the road due to injury, he can replace in a top 6 role and still contribute. The value of monahan is more down due to his injury past but he still have more value to a contender team than Dowd.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think the point is if the caps retain half his salary cap hit would be under the league minimum and would be circumventing the rules kind of a cheat code

 

[Roshi]

I think the point is if the caps retain half his salary cap hit would be under the league minimum and would be circumventing the rules kind of a cheat code

Adding in that his actual salary is even lower, 1m sharp. So its 650 cap, and half a mill of actual money for next season.

Tampa has been pioneering the way with paying premium for low-cap good bottom6ers with term. I wouldnt be suprised to see something like it. 1st might require Caps to add a b-prospect or a later pick with the retention, but its not as out of the realm as many seem to think.

What is the propability to find a player as good as Nic Dowd with 30th overall? And whats the timeline for that. Why not get the help now for 2 runs, when you really need it.

And to look at it from Caps pov, whats the point selling Dowd for scraps. We like him!

 

[Djp]

These prices are just stupid lol you're going to see CHL style trades here soon where 7 picks are sent for a single player.

think we saw that already between nashville and tampa.

 

[le_sean]

Legendary performance by defensive stalwart Dowd tonight against the Habs

Anyone who pays a 1st for him should be fired on the spot

 

[JustAHabFan]

Dowd and a 1st should never be in the same sentence. A 1st for a 4th line center?

 

[Misery74]

I say this as a Caps fan, no chance he is worth a first round pick. Not sure how this rumor got started.

 

[wonton15]

Maybe a 2nd if a contender is desperate?

 

[Cogburn]

If a team is a bottom six, shut down center, away from becoming a contender, then hell yes he's worth that first.

How many teams are in that position though?

 

[trick9]

If a team is a bottom six, shut down center, away from becoming a contender, then hell yes he's worth that first.

How many teams are in that position though?

Anyone that can read and actually read the whole piece would know that they also implied that a contender that doesn't have the cap space to go after the bigger guys, could move a 1st round pick for him since he'd only carry 0.650m cap hit for this and next season with retention.

I don't think anyone expects to get a 1st round pick for him.

 

[Petes2424]

This is media types trying to find the next Tampa type of deal. If you use the Tampa logic over the last couple of years, we can find several players who’d fit. The problem with the logic is, Tampa really has been the only team to practice these types of trades, and they’re out of ammo.

Could we see a team give someone like Detroit multiple 1sts for a Rasmussen? Sure. He’s already a really good player, and his history and those hands say, he’s probably going to be a beast between 25-32 years old. The problem is, why would they trade him, after finally watching his development starting to pay off?

The Hagel deal paid off, but it was unique to Chicago and Tampa’s situation. Dowd is 33 years old.

 

[biturbo19]

Shades of GMs drunk on Paul Gaustad.

First thing that immediately came to mind. And the only reason why i wouldn't just completely dismiss this absurdity outright.

 

[biturbo19]

I think the point is if the caps retain half his salary cap hit would be under the league minimum and would be circumventing the rules kind of a cheat code

I mean, the same could be said of pretty much any player making $1.3M like Dowd, or less. That doesn't mean it's worth a 1st to save $650k or whatever, on a 4th line C. Not when "max retention" on a bigger contract for a better player could be saving you $Millions of dollars...which is far better "bang for your buck (or draft pick i guess)" proportionally.

 

[HTFN]

I mean, the same could be said of pretty much any player making $1.3M like Dowd, or less. That doesn't mean it's worth a 1st to save $650k or whatever, on a 4th line C. Not when "max retention" on a bigger contract for a better player could be saving you $Millions of dollars...which is far better "bang for your buck (or draft pick i guess)" proportionally.

But all those players aren't also arguably the best in the league in their role with an extra year attached, and it's probably that cumulative value that makes this a discussion to have even if it doesn't pan out. In a weak market it's still wild but not completely outlandish because again: this guy isn't just "not bad" but actually very good.

Sure seems like a lot of people in this thread went "boring name guy from a boring team... Alabama?! Must be same as everybody else's favored local hero" but virtually every measure shows he's one of the best and has been for years. Getting about as guaranteed a "plug and play" option for your bottom 6 as possible under control for two playoff runs is something, maybe not a 1st but certainly not this bullshit either:

Just calling out the ridiculous notion that a team would somehow want Dowd ahead of an actual good player.

 

[StickShift]

There’s a lot of teams hoping to get a 1st round pick for their players—and who could make a compelling reason for why they should get one…

But, I just don’t think there will be that many 1st round picks available this TDL.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

If a team is a bottom six, shut down center, away from becoming a contender, then hell yes he's worth that first.

How many teams are in that position though?

The same amount who understand a "1st round pick" is really more of a glorified second round pick with where they'll likely finish and thusly will not scoff at the sticker price.

This board gets a lot of EA NHL Arm Chair GMing so the posters don't always understand what you're getting at. To them value is a number tied to a player, it's goals, or assists, or in some cases their draft rank. They struggle to see the whole picture as you mentioned, a good bottom 6 C is both an essential piece in building a Cup roster, and something that's not actually just growing on trees. I mean sure, you can plug any center into the bottom 6 role, but that's not actually going to yield results. Dowd has bottom 6 center skills that are desirable in the playoffs. He's a good two way player, his FO% is always around 50%, he is an asset on the PK, he hits, he'll fight, he is an above average bottom 6 passer, and he is an average bottom 6 shooter. When you consider how tight the playoffs become, you consider how stylistically the game changes when you play bottom 6 lines, it starts making sense why those player might fetch some value.


In the 2018 Cup run I would easily say the performances of Lars Eller (3C) and Jay Beagle (4C) would have been worth a late first round pick. We literally do not win a cup without both of those performances, that isn't necessarily maybe the case for the wingers on those lines, but those centers for sure were worth their weight.

And hell, maybe I just feel like that value doesn't seem crazy because I've literally seen this story before. Until the Capitals acquired Lars Eller (who was an absolute steal for two second round picks) the team always felt like they were that elusive 3C away from getting over the hump. What happened? They got their 3C and lost in 2017 to the eventual winners (IMO the '17 Caps were even better than '18), the next year they won the Cup. Same thing with Beagle, strong 4C, amazing PKer, fantastic FO%, really was the exact finishing touch needed on a championship roster.


The key here though is knowledge in your own roster. Jay Beagle never made sense in Van, they were not a Jay Beagle away from a Cup. So a guy like Jay Beagle (or in this case Nic Dowd) is maybe 100% worth a first round pick for some rosters, but most definitely not for others.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I mean, if suddenly all the cars in the world are gone except one 1992 Sunbird, it all comes down to how desperate you are to get from A to B.

But does the Sunbird have the optional hood decal?

 

[BLNY]

But does the Sunbird have the optional hood decal?

It's the shitty 4cyl with the 3spd auto cinder block of a transmission.

 

[TheBeard]

Vegas showed last year the importance of depth in your bottom 6.

I don't see Washington getting a first outright, but I can see something similar to the Goodrow to TB deal in which SJ got a first but also sent out a 3rd.