Hurricanes Off Season Thread: When Tlusty doesn't score 40, who will be to blame?

[Finlandia WOAT]

The regular season has concluded, and (once again) the Hurricanes are sitting at home, eating Goldfish and watching Judge Judy.

In an effort to stymie all the inevitable offseason talk across different threads, we'll keep it in this mega thread like years past.

Will Boychuk/Dalpe make the team?
Will Corvo be resigned?
Will the Hurricanes sign a gritty vet on defense????
Will Chad LaRose be declared an "untouchable"????

Ready, steady, GO!!

BTW, that's 40 goals in the poll (which is a "What is wrong with our team/what must be addressed next year" cleverly disguised as a Jiri Tlusty hype thread).

Click to read more...

 

[Blueline Bomber]

No
Yes
Yes, but he'll be shown up by younger players
How can he be, when he already is?

As for the poll, Muller will get the blame, because Jiri will be put on the 3rd line after showing zero chemistry with Staal/Semin to start the season.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

We'll win about 30 games next year. If Tlusty is put on the ice at the end of each win and scores an empty net goal in half of them, he has a good chance at 40.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

After saying that Chad LaRose experienced an “off year†in 2010-11, Rutherford expressed interest in bringing him back into the fold, saying, “He is the guy that drives this team.â€

I am expecting a similar quote from JR any time now.

 

[Novacane]

Will Boychuk/Dalpe make the team? I'll say no. Would say Dalpe has the better shot though.
Will Corvo be resigned? No. Maybe JR will finally wake up.
Will the Hurricanes sign a gritty vet on defense???? Yes. Bryan Allen after he's bought out. (I have no evidence for him being bought out)
Will Chad LaRose be declared an "untouchable"???? No.

 

[Roboturner913]

In looking for positives from this trainwreck, I did see one really meaningful thing emerge and that was that the team showed fight down the stretch when they didn't have reason to.

It's easy to forget how young the team as a whole is, but when your most veteran players are 28-29-30 years old with many players significantly young, the collective mental toughness probably won't be there.

The key to the offseason IMO is building some team unity and cohesion. Maybe that means bringing in a couple of "glue guys" in free agency, maybe it means doing some fruity team-building exercises with Tony Robbins in the mountains or something. Talent is not the issue here.

As for the questions:

No, but Rask will.

Hell no.

They don't have a choice, they will have to.

I feel like Dwyer has taken over LaRose's niche on the team so he will probably be moving on. I have been a fan of #59 but he seems to have lost a step and really doesn't play with the edge he used to.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I have a serious question (forgive me for derailing the thread). I know it's become a bit of a meme around here, but does anyone actually think that Tlusty even has a shot at 40 goals next season?

I for one am pleased with his season and I don't think a 25-25-50 season from him next year is an unreasonable expectation, but I'm wondering if anyone here has actually said that they expect 40.

Not to take away from the joke, I'm just wondering who it was...

 

[Novacane]

I have a serious question (forgive me for derailing the thread). I know it's become a bit of a meme around here, but does anyone actually think that Tlusty even has a shot at 40 goals next season?

I for one am pleased with his season and I don't think a 25-25-50 season from him next year is an unreasonable expectation, but I'm wondering if anyone here has actually said that they expect 40.

Not to take away from the joke, I'm just wondering who it was...

No way he hits 40. His assist total will be higher than his goal total next season. No doubt in my mind. And Semin's goal/assist ratio evens out more. Feel like 25 goals is a little optimistic to be honest. Not out of the question of course given his season this year. I'd put him around 20-35 for next season.

 

[Vagrant]

I don't think that anybody believes that Tlusty will produce 35 goals next season, much less hit 40 goals. He did score 4 ENG goals this season, but he still produced 19 without that benefit and even though ENGs are frowned upon, generally speaking, it does speak to the confidence the coaching has in his two way game to get him out there. It's more than just luck that has him score those. Not saying it's sustainable, but he shouldn't be penalized for that stat.

I feel like 30 goals is a reasonable expectation for Tlusty next season. I am comfortable in saying that his ability to shoot the puck is far greater than a lot of us anticipated. He's a finisher. If you look at a lot of his goals, they weren't tap in goals from outstanding individual efforts by his linemates entirely. He had his fair share of beating goaltenders with strong shots and he's good at hiding in the weeds while the attention goes elsewhere. The thing that makes this line work so well is that every single player on that line trusts the other to not let the play die on their tape. That kind of confidence just can't be created in time. It's part of the reason why Skinner is having trouble sustaining his offense. He doesn't trust anybody with the puck but himself and the puck never gets back to him. Regardless of how you feel about Jiri, it's undeniable that this was a coming out party for him and should continue into next season.

Dalpe will make the team next year. Boychuk will not. Joe Corvo will be retained because despite how much heat he was under on these boards, he carried this group for stretches even when we were winning hockey games. Do I agree that he should be back? Probably not. However, when you don't have better options what are you to do? Sanguinetti shouldn't be back. McBain shouldn't be back. Corvo was hardly the problem. In a lot of ways, he was the glue guy when injuries really set in. The truth is that when you're on your 8th or 9th defensive option at the NHL level and you're calling up Brett Bellemore and Michal Jordan it doesn't matter who you have out there you're going to suck. The only condition in which I don't see Corvo back is if we make a trade for a different stylistic guy when we deal McBain.

I doubt the Hurricanes pick up a gritty veteran defender through free agency, I think that they may pursue that option by dealing Jamie McBain in making way for Ryan Murphy.

Chad Larose will not be retained unless he's asking for league minimum type numbers. We simply have no use for him here. He's not playing with the same passion he was prior to his big pay day and I feel like he has mailed in a lot of the aspects of his game that used to make him underrated around here. He used to play with a lot of piss and vinegar and all of that is gone. Did anybody ever see him get in anybody's face this year? Draw a ton of penalties with his motor? None of that stuff this year. He's going to have to play his way back into money if he wants it anymore. Plus, he's not the type of bottom six that Carolina wants right now.

 

[rocky7]

There should be a big shake up next year but there probably wont be. Depending on who they pick up/let go, should determine lines. No line should be logging 20:00 or more minutes a game. How Muller coaches and who plays with who will determine production. If it's the same as this year expect the same results. As it stands right now, the only two guys who should play together are Semin and Tlusty if both are still around.


EDIT: Semin was bought FOR Eric however. Semin and Tlusty are role players. But from that stand point it worked. Staal had his best year for some time, Tlusty had a great season and Semin was a ppg. Lets all be satisfied.

 

[Roboturner913]

In fairness to Corvo my response was based on him making $2 million when they could take that money and another million and sign a Hainsey or Scuderi. If you take him on merit alone, he's a pretty decent third-pair guy.

Playing around on capgeek, I can sign Scuderi or Hainsey (3.3 million or so should do it for either one) and Bergeron on D, then Raffi Torres to replace LaRose. Going cheap on the fourth line with guys like Blanchard/Sutter/Wallace leaves you with about $500K to sign one more roster spot, which could be your draft pick.

 

[skillhockey]

Theres 3 players in that line that can shoot, it depends how plays go next year. This year Tlusty was the shooter all the time. And who cares if the line just scores.

 

[WhiteTrashAmerican]

In fairness to Corvo my response was based on him making $2 million when they could take that money and another million and sign a Hainsey or Scuderi. If you take him on merit alone, he's a pretty decent third-pair guy.

Playing around on capgeek, I can sign Scuderi or Hainsey (3.3 million or so should do it for either one) and Bergeron on D, then Raffi Torres to replace LaRose. Going cheap on the fourth line with guys like Blanchard/Sutter/Wallace leaves you with about $500K to sign one more roster spot, which could be your draft pick.

I'd love Hainsey here, but if we draft a guy like Barkov he is going to be pricier than 500k. Assuming we rush him to the NHL, of course.

 

[rocky7]

A quality draft pick for 500K? That's needed now! OK.!

 

[faulkingdynamic]

Theres 3 players in that line that can shoot, it depends how plays go next year. This year Tlusty was the shooter all the time. And who cares if the line just scores.

I dont think its this simple. On a nightly basis Tlusty was far more likely to go into dirty areas. He scored alot of goals in places that Semin and Staal rarely visit. That wont change next season. But i do agree that Semin may shoot more now that he is comfortable. However its also possible that Semin is entirely satified with feeding Staal and Tlusty. I dont know the actual stats but my guess is a majority of Semins assists were primaries. And honestly he seems comfortable setting up others in a way many talented wingers, with his kind of shot, arent.

 

[Guy]

I've already prepared myself to deal with the rage that will ensue from the 3rd straight Chad 2yr 1.7mAAV deal that will inevitably be offered and accepted.

 

[geehaad]

the team showed fight down the stretch when they didn't have reason to.

Actually, this is par for the course. They do this nearly *every* year.

What I would like to see emerge is for them to show the fight to prevent losing 4 games in a row.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I've already prepared myself to deal with the rage that will ensue from the 3rd straight Chad 2yr 1.7mAAV deal that will inevitably be offered and accepted.

Seriously though, I will rage-quit this franchise if that happens.

 

[Guy]

I honestly think that it will happen. I have no reason to believe that he won't be back here next season, and I don't think JR will offer him a lesser deal to start off with.

 

[Roboturner913]

Actually, this is par for the course. They do this nearly *every* year.

I know it seems that way, especially when you think about '11, but those teams weren't dead at the bottom of the standings without their starting goalie. This one feels different, maybe I'm just delusional but they exhibited a little bit of pride.

I think we won't really know until last year, if they do have a much better year we can look at the end of this season and say "wow they grew up a lot then," or it'll just be another instance of same old stuff.

 

[Vagrant]

The problem with spending every available dime that we have on our top 16 forwards and 6 defenders is that it leaves us in a position where the fluidity of the lineup is non-existent. Position battles are non-existent. Giving a guy like Marc Andre Bergeron an unpunched ticket to your Top 6 is absolute suicide. Same for Bobby Sanguinetti. We can't just play the, "well Larose made X dollars, so we can take X dollars from his salary and plug in Y player", in order to make sense of financial moves. In a lot of ways in the NHL, you get what you pay for with the odd exception. If we fill out our bottom six with replacement level players, then a replacement level or below bottom six we will have. While I agree that the money needs to be shuffled, I don't think we have the room to sign anybody that is paid in excess of what Corvo and Larose made individually this season, and we're certainly not going to combine their contracts into one player with perhaps the single reason we got burned this year was depth related anyways.

We have two "swing contracts", on this team. In my opinion of course. Tuomo Ruutu and Joni Pitkanen. Both being injured limits their marketability but in order to achieve any real roster flexibility, we'd have to jettison one or the other. Ruutu brought a presence when he was in the lineup that this team needed, but it was already too late by that point. Pitkanen is a perfect complimentary defender for a team that has a deeper defense than we do, but throwing 28 minutes a night on the guy because he can physically do it isn't doing us any great favors. Ideally, we could keep Pitkanen and surround him with better defenders and make it work, but not on the budget as it currently stands. I favor a system where you have 5 or 6 guys who are considered "Top Four", than having a system where you have 1 or 2 guys who are considered "Top Pair", and 4 other guys who are your Sanguinetti's, Bergeron's, Corvo's and McBain's of the world. And with as much as I love Harrison, he's not anybody's Top 4 defender. He's a great piece to have for your bottom pair but he's not anything more. And rumors of Justin Faulk's dominance are already greatly exaggerated. Not that he won't get there, but with the rhetoric you'd think he was already playing Norris caliber hockey when he's not. Tim Gleason has regressed from his olympic year form and is now a competent 5th, but when you're as hungry for the "type" of player that Gleason is when he's playing his best hockey there isn't much you can do but wait for him to play better. Hope that the light switches back on. And it does, briefly, but we can't count on it on a night to night basis.

The key thing that this defense is missing is consistency. Who do we have that we know is going to be the guy who plays the exact same way on every shift? Allen was that way and we lost him. Seidenberg was that way and we lost him. Instead, we've opted for the home run swing with players like Pitkanen, Corvo, McBain, Gleason, Harrison, etc. who can all look like top pairing dudes on one night and then look like absolute crap the next. Faulk fits in with that group on age and experience alone, but he won't stay there. What you're left with is a group that has no real identity and it's going to take more than one offseason to change that. People speak to the '06 group and forget that we had a stable full of guys that played a consistent and reliable style. Wesley, Hedican, Ward, and Kaberle were all guys that brought the same level of play. I think consistency may be more important than top end results.

 

[Unsustainable]

No
No
Yes
No

 

[geehaad]

I know it seems that way, especially when you think about '11, but those teams weren't dead at the bottom of the standings without their starting goalie. This one feels different, maybe I'm just delusional but they exhibited a little bit of pride.

The prominent one in my memory is 09-10, when they had a umpteen game losing skid, were solidly in the Taylor Hall sweepstakes (dead last at the halfway point, I think), lost Cam Ward and brought in Manny Legace, then finished strong to wind up 7th-last.

The biggest difference is that this year's team had the talent and was solidly in the playoffs then tanked, whereas that year's team sucked from top to bottom, lost players to injury, was dead-last after a significant number of games, then came back without Cam Ward.

So, comparatively, this year's team was weak down the stretch.

 

[geehaad]

People speak to the '06 group and forget that we had a stable full of guys that played a consistent and reliable style. Wesley, Hedican, Ward, and Kaberle were all guys that brought the same level of play. I think consistency may be more important than top end results.

Those guys played the offensive end of the spectrum as well as the current group plays the defensive end. Addressing the middle-ground seems to be (one of) JR's general failing(s).

 

[Vagrant]

Those guys played the offensive end of the spectrum as well as the current group plays the defensive end. Addressing the middle-ground seems to be (one of) JR's general failing(s).

Perhaps in the sense of point production, you may have a point there. But in regards to doing their job I feel like all of those players listed were capable of making a first pass out of the zone that started the offense going. They weren't traditional point producers, but they could move the puck. I think offense from the defense is one of the more overrated institutions in hockey. Really, all you need are defenders that are competent enough with the puck to hold the zone and allow your forwards to play confidently when the puck is on your tape and you're fine. They don't have to be Erik Karlsson, they just have to be confident.