Hurricanes Lounge XXXII: wait, but why?

[Roboturner913]

Now he returns, week+ after I've been cured of the diarrhea. It's no use now anymore bro.

Well, the way this has gone before I may not be around too long anyway

 

[Unsustainable]

I had to fire my doctor today.

Hour and half of waiting for them not to come and say anything. Wasted my vacation time, charged me 110 dollars for nothing. Every time I go, it seems like it’s an hour after my appointment before I get seen, this time, this is unacceptable and unprofessional.

After I chewed out the people up front, a nurse called me to apologize, I said you wasted about 400 dollars of my time. You’re fired.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Electric vehicle technology is nowhere near being efficient enough to replace the internal combustion engine, and it likely won’t be for many decades if ever

 

[MinJaBen]

Electric vehicle technology is nowhere near being efficient enough to replace the internal combustion engine, and it likely won’t be for many decades if ever

Now, it’s been a looooong time since I engineered so maybe I’m remembering it wrong, but my recollection was the EV have always been more efficient than ICEs. The problem is energy density, not efficiency.

 

[Unsustainable]

I do think Ford missed the Mark by calling the EV Mustang Mach-E. Should have called it the Galax-E

 

[Roboturner913]

Efficiency isn't the issue, it's range. I would very much love to buy a used BMW i3 nearby but it only has a 72 mile range. I drive a lot, so I would have to drop everything in the middle of the day to plug the car in and most days I just don't have 30 minutes to just sit around waiting.

 

[Negan4Coach]

Electric vehicle technology is nowhere near being efficient enough to replace the internal combustion engine, and it likely won’t be for many decades if ever

I'm pretty sure that statement now qualifies as a hate crime.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Now, it’s been a looooong time since I engineered so maybe I’m remembering it wrong, but my recollection was the EV have always been more efficient than ICEs. The problem is energy density, not efficiency.

I meant cost efficiency

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

@Boom Boom Apathy

a 500-600 mile trip with a Tesla with 300 mile range, probably 2 40 minute stops at a super charger, considering most are with places to eat, you can schedule your meals and bathroom with those stops.

You’re assuming a “supercharger” is available at the exact spot you need to stop. Right now, odds of that are almost zero.

also, when I travel long trips, stops are 15 min max.

 

[Unsustainable]

You’re assuming a “supercharger” is available at the exact spot you need to stop. Right now, odds of that are almost zero.

also, when I travel long trips, stops are 15 min max.

Supercharger | Tesla

15 mins will get 200 miles

 

[Unsustainable]

I have to admit, I’m a Tesla fan, but a Model 3 is likely my next car.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

Bad night for hockey youtubers. Dangle's Leafs blow a 5-1 lead to Ottawa and Melody Martin's Sabers didn't register a shot in the third period down two and they had a gang of AHLers in their squad thanks to New Jersey. Makes me appreciate the run we are on even more now because we have had some awful nights/seasons/decades ourselves.

 

[Roboturner913]

I would love a Tesla Model 3 if I weren't terrified of spending a bunch of money on a nice car. I'd probably buy the thing, pull out the dealership and get t-boned by some idiot before I even made it home.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Supercharger | Tesla

15 mins will get 200 miles

The point isn't that there is technology to get a car charged quickly, the point is that the chances of those stations being so generally available that they will be where one needs them. That map on Tesla's website you linked is very misleading, and if you dig a little further, you see that "supercharger's" aren't as available as they make it seem. Many of those are "destination chargers" which aren't superchargers.

Find Us | Tesla

There's 1 between Raleigh and DC for instance and it's on 95. If you are traveling from Charlotte to Cincinnati for instance, there are none. That's my point. UNTIL that 15 min. charge technology is widely available on multiple routes, it will limit EV usage for long trips. Eventually, I can see it happening, it's just not there yet and won't be for a while.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Electric vehicle technology is nowhere near being efficient enough to replace the internal combustion engine, and it likely won’t be for many decades if ever

It certainly isn't now, but I won't say it won't ever be, when looking at the full picture. It's going to be an interesting ride either way.

20 years ago I never though that I could have pretty much every power tool and lawn tool be battery operated, but here we are. Kodak once thought that digital camera technology would never be good enough to replace film (ironically, I believe a Kodak engineer actually developed the first digital camera). In all honesty, they probably knew it was coming but didn't want to eat into their core profits. IBM completely misjudged the PC market and never expected that PC's would be as powerful as they became. Also likely that they didn't want to eat into their dominance in the mainframe business. Those are just two examples. Companies that fail to embrace technology evolution and trends end up failing more often than not. I think we'll see a few things though.

First, oil companies and other companies with a vested interest in ICEs will do everything they can to ensure ICE never go away. Because of that, we'll see innovation and more extensive use of Hybrid technology/other technology to increase MPG on ICE cars. Oil companies will probably also make sure gas prices never get too expensive to drive consumers to alternative means as well. The auto makers need to walk that fine line between preserving profits and moving to new technology so they aren't left behind. Oil companies need to walk that fine line as well. To optimize profits they want higher gas prices and lower MPG (more gas demand), but to keep from driving consumers from going to alternative means, they need to keep gas prices in check and have auto makers improve ICE efficiency.

Secondly, like other technology innovation, the same thing will happen/is happening in the automobile industry and EVs. The technology will continue to advance to make EV's more and more competitive to ICEs. Tesla has now sold 370K in 2019 and in the 2nd 1/2 of 2020 sold almost as many as they did the prior year (320K). Yeah, it's still only about 4% of the total vehicle sales in the US, but the years before it was 1-2% and it will continue to grow. It's coming and it's why every major automaker is getting in on it.

Do I ever expect ICE to completely go away? No, I don't (at least in my lifetime). I do expect that in 10 years from now, a very sizeable portion of vehicles sold will be Electric as technological advances increase range and charging stations become more prevalent. Before my wife bought her last car a few years ago, I did a full economic analysis of an EV (as we don't take it on many long trips), a hybrid, and a typical ICE. There wasn't a case for an EV then, even with gov't incentives. The ICE vs. Hybrid was close, but only because gas prices were so low. The ability to get a deal on the hybrid made it the winner even at lower gas prices, but if gas prices rise, it's a slam dunk winner.

I do agree it's all about economics, but there are some other very distinct advantages that EVs have so if the "energy equation" gets even close, EV's are much simpler to maintain on the whole. They don't have a transmission, don't need oil changes, and being able to just plug your car in at night in your garage vs. going to a gas station. etc....

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Any idea on the effect on your electric bill, when plugging a car in every night?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Any idea on the effect on your electric bill, when plugging a car in every night?

It's going to depend on how much you use the car, the range the batteries have, and how depleted the batteries are when you charge it.

A quick search finds this.

If electricity costs $0.11 per kilowatt-hour, charging an all-electric vehicle with a 70-mile range (assuming a fully depleted 24 kWh battery) will cost about $2.64 to reach a full charge.

It also depends on when you charge and electric rates. Here's an example for a Tesla in California:

Depending on the Southern California Edison rate plan, a 2020 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus, rated at 24 kWh/100 miles, would cost as little as $1.44 for 50 miles' worth of power if home charging started at 11 p.m. Or it could cost four times as much, $5.88, if the car charged during peak hours.

EDIT: so with current gas prices of about $2.20 (in NC) and the 2020 US average MPG of ~24 MPG for a passenger car (excluding trucks and vans), that would cost about ~$4.50 for 50 miles on a gasoline car with that mileage.

 

[hockeynjune]

Good article on SOA battery tech

Future batteries, coming soon: Charge in seconds, last months and power over the air

 

[The Stranger]

Do I ever expect ICE to completely go away? No, I don't (at least in my lifetime). I do expect that in 10 years from now, a very sizeable portion of vehicles sold will be Electric as technological advances increase range and charging stations become more prevalent. Before my wife bought her last car a few years ago, I did a full economic analysis of an EV (as we don't take it on many long trips), a hybrid, and a typical ICE. There wasn't a case for an EV then, even with gov't incentives. The ICE vs. Hybrid was close, but only because gas prices were so low. The ability to get a deal on the hybrid made it the winner even at lower gas prices, but if gas prices rise, it's a slam dunk winner.

I do agree it's all about economics, but there are some other very distinct advantages that EVs have so if the "energy equation" gets even close, EV's are much simpler to maintain on the whole. They don't have a transmission, don't need oil changes, and being able to just plug your car in at night in your garage vs. going to a gas station. etc....

If you look at where the money is flowing, EVs will be a much bigger slice of the market in 10 years.

Investors have bid up Tesla to be more valuable than Toyota, GM, Ford, VW, and Honda combined. I think it's clearly irrational exuberance...but it's forcing all the competitors to funnel significant amounts of their new product developmental funding into EVs and make these pronouncements about being all electric and phasing out ICEs by 2025 or 2035.

There's also the possibility of a carbon tax which would significantly shift the economics of electric vs petrol. In Musk's interview with Rogan, he said he's already lobbied the Biden admin to impose a carbon tax, but was told it was currently too politically difficult.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

If you look at where the money is flowing, EVs will be a much bigger slice of the market in 10 years.

Investors have bid up Tesla to be more valuable than Toyota, GM, Ford, VW, and Honda combined. I think it's clearly irrational exuberance...but it's forcing all the competitors to funnel significant amounts of their new product developmental funding into EVs and make these pronouncements about being all electric and phasing out ICEs by 2025 or 2035.

There's also the possibility of a carbon tax which would significantly shift the economics of electric vs petrol. In Musk's interview with Rogan, he said he's already lobbied the Biden admin to impose a carbon tax, but was told it was currently too politically difficult.

I generally like Elon, but pretending he wants that tax truly altruistically while he owns 20% of the highest valued electric car company was annoying

 

[LakeLivin]

Doesn't a good portion of road maintenance funding in most states come from gas taxes? Has there been much discussion of how to replace that revenue as EVs become more prevalent? And is that factor taken into consideration when comparing operating costs for the two technologies?

 

[hblueridgegal]

Sunny Day
Sweepin' the clouds away
On my way to where the air is sweet

So glad to get outdoors again. Hope it's nice your way, too.

 

[Unsustainable]

Doesn't a good portion of road maintenance funding in most states come from gas taxes? Has there been much discussion of how to replace that revenue as EVs become more prevalent? And is that factor taken into consideration when comparing operating costs for the two technologies?

we give how much in foreign aid again that could spent on roads....

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

we give how much in foreign aid again that could spent on roads....

Money printer go brrrrrrrr

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Doesn't a good portion of road maintenance funding in most states come from gas taxes? Has there been much discussion of how to replace that revenue as EVs become more prevalent? And is that factor taken into consideration when comparing operating costs for the two technologies?

A while back, a guy working for the dept. of transportation came to one of our neighborhood association meetings talking about the completion of the 540 extension. The subject of funding/tolls, etc.. came up and he said there were talks (back then) of having a usage tax that people pay on cars each year that would depend on how much you drive and that would eventually replace tolls and gasoline taxes, etc... He said there were a lot of roadblocks though, such as when you drive out of state, or people passing through the state, etc... so it didn't sound like that sort of thing was imminent by any means.

In terms of road funding, a gasoline tax probably made sense years ago because the amount of gas you use probably correlated pretty well with miles traveled. Now with EVs, Hybrids, etc...it makes it more difficult. My truck gets about 20 MPG and my wife's Hybrid car gets more than 50 MPG. I don't think my truck puts 2.5X more stress on the roads than her car for equivalent miles driven.