How Will We Do With No Further Major Moves?

[_Del_]

Mike Smith was good overall last year for a bad team. I'm not trying to take that away from him. He was better than his numbers perhaps suggest. Unfortunately, Vezina's aren't awarded for your best 10 games. Smith always has a 10-20 game stretch where he looks like a Vezina candidate. It's the other 40 games that are always more concerning. It was probably his best season here, but I don't know how anyone could have had an expectation for another great year from him when his entire career is the trace of a yo-yo. Even last season as good, as it was, had more than its share of terrible starts, as I showed above.

 

[_Del_]

We can talk about a consistency issue all we want, but the reality probably lies in that the games where he had a below 85% save percentage very well likely coincided with a greater number of shots taken in high percentage areas. If every game, he was facing 30 shots with no significant difference in where those shots were taken, then without a doubt it speaks to inconsistencies.

Sure. We gave up tons of good chances. Undisputed.
In the league average number, you're talking about tens of or hundreds of thousands of shots league wide, by all manner of teams and all manner of shooters against all manner of defenses and goaltenders -- including backups. This is not a small sample size.
And when you compare those numbers, Smith is pedestrian over the long haul of the season even in his best season. Great admittedly for small stretches, putrid for others. Over the course of entire seasons.
Explain it away however you want to, but if there's anyone out there offering odds on a Vezina quality season out of Smith, put me down for a sure bet against.

 

[Foggy1097]

Vezina????

SMITH
.914 Save% - 27th among NHL goalies
2.92 GA - 43rd among NHL goalies (there were only 30 teams!)

RAANTA:
.922 Save% - 11th
2.26 GA - 8th

Mike Smith as usual was in the bottom 10% of all goalie categories. Sure he played for a bad team, but he was a key reason they were a bad team....as has been the case the past 3 season. He will choke under the pressure in Calgary and will be watching Eddie Lack trying to dig the Flames out of the hole Smith created in attempts to salvage a playoff spot.

Yes, Vezina level. The team in front of him was the worst in the league...possibly worse than COL. The ONLY reason we won or got points in many games was Smitty. If you put him on WSH or PIT or CHI or any elite team last year, I think he is without question nominated for a Vezina. His numbers of course don't look like Vezina numbers, how could they possibly? But if you watched every game last year that he played, there were very few poor games by him where you could say, "they lost that one because of Smitty." Very, very few. Probably the least amount of soft goals I've seen him give up in a season since the 2012 year. It was anything but "the key reason they were a bad team." He was the only thing standing in the way of being COL, or likely, even worse.

 

[Hinterland]

What? Calgary's D is 10x's better than the Coyotes.



No one knows what is going to happen in net. With Smith we had an idea, but with Raanta we are in the dark. Some on this board do not think Raanta is a #1 and not even as good as LD. If that ends up to be true we are in for a lot of hurt. I believe he is a fine goalie, but will be tested because of our D.

If you're looking for a backup, Raanta is a very good option. If you want a starter, not so much...next season Louis has to have a breakthrough or this team is gonna finish last without further moves.

Calgary is a goalie graveyard for years now...not because of their defenders but because of flower picking forwards. Not enough babysitters for all of the floaters...

 

[Hinterland]

Yes, Vezina level. The team in front of him was the worst in the league...possibly worse than COL. The ONLY reason we won or got points in many games was Smitty. If you put him on WSH or PIT or CHI or any elite team last year, I think he is without question nominated for a Vezina. His numbers of course don't look like Vezina numbers, how could they possibly? But if you watched every game last year that he played, there were very few poor games by him where you could say, "they lost that one because of Smitty." Very, very few. Probably the least amount of soft goals I've seen him give up in a season since the 2012 year. It was anything but "the key reason they were a bad team." He was the only thing standing in the way of being COL, or likely, even worse.

Again, that's a rumour. Coyotes failure to keep possession and create chances/momentum is the biggest problem. Puts defense on the backfoot quite often. Coyotes may have been a bad team for years and the goalies had to make lots of saves. They've always been solid defensively though. Most of the shots Smith and co saw were easy ones. Don't let yourself fool by shot totals, PK numbers or Smith making easy stops look like saves of the year. The whole thing is really just s rumour. The one thing you have to give Tippett credit for is that he took care of defense and particularly preventing high danger chances...for a bottom team the Coyotes were outstanding defensively. Smith is gonna find it a lot tougher in Calgary.

 

[Jakey53]

Mike Smith was pretty good last year. Yet, despite many games with 30-40 or 58 (!) saves, we can still look at the game log and see why his save percentage was average at best. Because he has zero consistency.

3GA/30Shots against .900 sv%
3/30 .900
4/17 .765
4/33 .879
4/27 .852
4/22 .818
3/29 .897
3/27 .889
3/21 .857
4/32 .875
5/31 .839
3/24 .875
3/27 .889
4/26 .846
4/33 .879
6/29 .793
4/14 .714
4/39 .897
4/30 .867
4/33 .879
4/28 .857

That's a lot of games at .900 or below. He had several more less than .910

It's 21 of 55 games he played that he failed to climb above .900! Over a third of every game he played!

Everyone seems to forget about those games because the team was so bad he was the only reason we were in some of the other games.

Maybe you have a point. A few years back I thought Smith was done being a #1, but I think he now is still a bottom tier #1.

 

[Jakey53]

Great. So you agree that "now who the hell knows what is going to happen" is a ridiculous response to losing Smith.

Raanta has played 94 NHL games over the past four years and he is now our #1. I think you should give your head a shake if you know what the hell is going to happen this year. It's not only losing Smith we have to worry about but all the other transactions that have taken place.

 

[Jakey53]

Vezina????

SMITH
.914 Save% - 27th among NHL goalies
2.92 GA - 43rd among NHL goalies (there were only 30 teams!)

RAANTA:
.922 Save% - 11th
2.26 GA - 8th

Mike Smith as usual was in the bottom 10% of all goalie categories. Sure he played for a bad team, but he was a key reason they were a bad team....as has been the case the past 3 season. He will choke under the pressure in Calgary and will be watching Eddie Lack trying to dig the Flames out of the hole Smith created in attempts to salvage a playoff spot.

Last year Smith was NOT the reason the team was bad. We would have been much worse if not for Smith.

 

[cobra427]

Again, that's a rumour. Coyotes failure to keep possession and create chances/momentum is the biggest problem. Puts defense on the backfoot quite often. Coyotes may have been a bad team for years and the goalies had to make lots of saves. They've always been solid defensively though. Most of the shots Smith and co saw were easy ones. Don't let yourself fool by shot totals, PK numbers or Smith making easy stops look like saves of the year. The whole thing is really just s rumour. The one thing you have to give Tippett credit for is that he took care of defense and particularly preventing high danger chances...for a bottom team the Coyotes were outstanding defensively. Smith is gonna find it a lot tougher in Calgary.

You must not have been watching many games because the coyotes were horrible on D and gave up way too many scoring chances. The shots were not from low percentage areas on the ice like they were in our WCF run. This isn't a rumor either

 

[Foggy1097]

Again, that's a rumour. Coyotes failure to keep possession and create chances/momentum is the biggest problem. Puts defense on the backfoot quite often. Coyotes may have been a bad team for years and the goalies had to make lots of saves. They've always been solid defensively though. Most of the shots Smith and co saw were easy ones. Don't let yourself fool by shot totals, PK numbers or Smith making easy stops look like saves of the year. The whole thing is really just s rumour. The one thing you have to give Tippett credit for is that he took care of defense and particularly preventing high danger chances...for a bottom team the Coyotes were outstanding defensively. Smith is gonna find it a lot tougher in Calgary.

Not gonna touch that one with a ten foot pole buddy.

 

[OriginalJetsCoyotes]

I'm afraid to make any predictions after what I thought was going to be a good year last season went up in flames.

I'm keeping my expectations low and I'll say we get 71 or more points. That's as far as I can go, otherwise it'll just end up frustrating me more when/if we have another bad season.

 

[Jakey53]

You must not have been watching many games because the coyotes were horrible on D and gave up way too many scoring chances. The shots were not from low percentage areas on the ice like they were in our WCF run. This isn't a rumor either

Our D was not good, but they looked worse than they were because our great group of forwards could not hang on to the puck and we were always defending. Mind you, our some of our D were so bad at handling the puck all they wanted to do was chip it off the glass to get it out of our zone. We were third in GA last year so there is lots of room for improvement. Not sure where the shots came from, but the forwards can share in the blame there as well.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I agree that our defensive corps was awful last year. Our forwards, particularly centers, were awful last year. Both areas need to be improved.

Unfortunately, for the time being and probably up until the tread deadline, no blue chip defensemen are going to become available to us. Duchenne is a blue chip forward. Despite the claims that he is radioactive for reasons of attitude or whatever, Duchenne would instantly become the highest point producer on the team, by far. Let's keep our eye on the ring here. We won't be improving everything in one season. If this season we can improve our forwards, let's do it.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I agree that our defensive corps was awful last year. Our forwards, particularly centers, were awful last year. Both areas need to be improved.

Unfortunately, for the time being and probably up until the tread deadline, no blue chip defensemen are going to become available to us. Duchenne is a blue chip forward. Despite the claims that he is radioactive for reasons of attitude or whatever, Duchenne would instantly become the highest point producer on the team, by far. Let's keep our eye on the ring here. We won't be improving everything in one season. If this season we can improve our forwards, let's do it.

It depends on the price though. Since we acquired Stepan our need at center isn't as dire, we also gave up some good trade chips for him.

Also Dvorak and Strome both need spots, if not right away then soon. Unless you want to shift one of Stepan Duchene Strome and Dvorak to wing you won't be able to find time and linemates for all of them.

 

[Ebb]

It depends on the price though. Since we acquired Stepan our need at center isn't as dire, we also gave up some good trade chips for him.

Also Dvorak and Strome both need spots, if not right away then soon. Unless you want to shift one of Stepan Duchene Strome and Dvorak to wing you won't be able to find time and linemates for all of them.

But IF we could acquire Duchene, I'd be more comfortable with our forwards...

Domi - Stepan/Duchene - Duclair
Perlini - Duchene/Stepan - Rieder
Crouse - Dvorak - Fischer
Martinook - Richardson - McGinn

Strome and Keller to Tucson for the season unless we have injuries. I'm not sure what we would have to trade to acquire him though

 

[Matias Maccete]

But IF we could acquire Duchene, I'd be more comfortable with our forwards...

Domi - Stepan/Duchene - Duclair
Perlini - Duchene/Stepan - Rieder
Crouse - Dvorak - Fischer
Martinook - Richardson - McGinn

Strome and Keller to Tucson for the season unless we have injuries. I'm not sure what we would have to trade to acquire him though

Let's say we make that trade though, and Strome comes in and lights it up in camp? Or even if he does need time in the AHL, what do we do next year? We can't ice 4 scoring lines. It may work if Strome was going back for Duchene, but I'm not sure that's a move I make. He also wouldn't come cheap, I doubt that lineup with those wingers is intact after a trade unless we give up a ton of picks or Strome or Keller.

I like Duchene quite a bit, but after already getting Stepan, I'm not sure we have the expendable assets and slot long term for Duchene.

 

[_Del_]

Sakic turned down Hamonic and a first and then complained to the media that he's being lowballed by everybody. Why in the world would we be offering up anything approaching that for a guy who had a down year and has only two years on his contract? They want D back. Apparently one better than Hamonic (plus a first). Have you looked at our blueline? Is there anyone here actually comfortable with that idea? And if not, why are we talking about it every couple of days?

 

[Matias Maccete]

Sakic turned down Hamonic and a first and then complained to the media that he's being lowballed by everybody. Why in the world would we be offering up anything approaching that for a guy who had a down year and has only two years on his contract? They want D back. Apparently one better than Hamonic (plus a first). Have you looked at our blueline? Is there anyone here actually comfortable with that idea? And if not, why are we talking about it every couple of days?

I understand why people are talking about it, I think it's because this looks awesome. That would be a great forward group.


Domi - Stepan/Duchene - Duclair
Perlini - Duchene/Stepan - Rieder
Crouse - Dvorak - Fischer
Martinook - Richardson - McGinn

After years of dumpster diving and seeing hanzal as our top C, we went out and made some moves, so I think more big moves become a plausible idea. All of the sudden they're not pipe dreams.

The reality though is to achieve that we'd have to give up some big pieces. If the avs really are looking for D exclusively, and really did turn down Harmonic and a 1st and call it a lowball (did that really happen? Cause that's a pretty decent offer), then we're likely looking at OEL or at least Chychrun + going back. I'm not ok with that, we'd fortify our C depth by obliterating our D core.

 

[Ebb]

I like Duchene quite a bit, but after already getting Stepan, I'm not sure we have the expendable assets and slot long term for Duchene.

I agree, but I'm also thinking we could move Duchene or Stepan at the TDL if Strome is ready to make the jump to full-time NHL duty

Sakic turned down Hamonic and a first and then complained to the media that he's being lowballed by everybody. Why in the world would we be offering up anything approaching that for a guy who had a down year and has only two years on his contract? They want D back. Apparently one better than Hamonic (plus a first). Have you looked at our blueline? Is there anyone here actually comfortable with that idea? And if not, why are we talking about it every couple of days?

As time passes and Colorado doesn't get a deal, perhaps the price will go down. Like you, I'm not sure what we would have to give up. I'm thinking OEL would have to be moved for him (at this point) and I doubt the Coyotes do that. Of course, if that was a possibility, they both have two years remaining on their contracts and are both about the same age, so it would come down to additional pieces in such a move. I highly doubt OEL re-signs with us or that Duchene would re-sign if acquired. So, I guess it comes down to who would you rather have for two seasons, OEL or Duchene? As much as I like OEL (who also had a down year last season--we just know some of the reasons), a potential 50-70 point scorer would be nice to add, but an elite D-man is tough to replace as well. Our defense would be pretty horrible as well if we lose OEL (not to mention a pished off Hjalms).

 

[Jakey53]

But IF we could acquire Duchene, I'd be more comfortable with our forwards...

Domi - Stepan/Duchene - Duclair
Perlini - Duchene/Stepan - Rieder
Crouse - Dvorak - Fischer
Martinook - Richardson - McGinn

Strome and Keller to Tucson for the season unless we have injuries. I'm not sure what we would have to trade to acquire him though

What are you going to give up for 2 yrs. of Duchene? It's rumored the Av's want a top 4 Dman back, so you would be looking a Chrychrun + or if they take a forward you are looking a Dvorak +. It's give and take here, not just take.

 

[Ebb]

What are you going to give up for 2 yrs. of Duchene? It's rumored the Av's want a top 4 Dman back, so you would be looking a Chrychrun + or if they take a forward you are looking a Dvorak +. It's give and take here, not just take.

see above for one possible scenario. Other than that, multiple picks/prospects might do the trick (although I doubt it)

 

[Jakey53]

Sakic turned down Hamonic and a first and then complained to the media that he's being lowballed by everybody. Why in the world would we be offering up anything approaching that for a guy who had a down year and has only two years on his contract? They want D back. Apparently one better than Hamonic (plus a first). Have you looked at our blueline? Is there anyone here actually comfortable with that idea? And if not, why are we talking about it every couple of days?

I agree.

I understand why people are talking about it, I think it's because this looks awesome. That would be a great forward group.


Domi - Stepan/Duchene - Duclair
Perlini - Duchene/Stepan - Rieder
Crouse - Dvorak - Fischer
Martinook - Richardson - McGinn

After years of dumpster diving and seeing hanzal as our top C, we went out and made some moves, so I think more big moves become a plausible idea. All of the sudden they're not pipe dreams.

The reality though is to achieve that we'd have to give up some big pieces. If the avs really are looking for D exclusively, and really did turn down Harmonic and a 1st and call it a lowball (did that really happen? Cause that's a pretty decent offer), then we're likely looking at OEL or at least Chychrun + going back. I'm not ok with that, we'd fortify our C depth by obliterating our D core.

I agree.

I agree, but I'm also thinking we could move Duchene or Stepan at the TDL if Strome is ready to make the jump to full-time NHL duty



As time passes and Colorado doesn't get a deal, perhaps the price will go down. Like you, I'm not sure what we would have to give up. I'm thinking OEL would have to be moved for him (at this point) and I doubt the Coyotes do that. Of course, if that was a possibility, they both have two years remaining on their contracts and are both about the same age, so it would come down to additional pieces in such a move. I highly doubt OEL re-signs with us or that Duchene would re-sign if acquired. So, I guess it comes down to who would you rather have for two seasons, OEL or Duchene? As much as I like OEL (who also had a down year last season--we just know some of the reasons), a potential 50-70 point scorer would be nice to add, but an elite D-man is tough to replace as well. Our defense would be pretty horrible as well if we lose OEL.

OEL has much more value than Duchene, and the Yotes would not even consider such a trade. Dman are always more important than forwards. Who says OEL or Duchene would not re-sign here?

 

[rt]

Why is Duchene coming up? Bizarre turn.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I agree, but I'm also thinking we could move Duchene or Stepan at the TDL if Strome is ready to make the jump to full-time NHL duty



As time passes and Colorado doesn't get a deal, perhaps the price will go down. Like you, I'm not sure what we would have to give up. I'm thinking OEL would have to be moved for him (at this point) and I doubt the Coyotes do that. Of course, if that was a possibility, they both have two years remaining on their contracts and are both about the same age, so it would come down to additional pieces in such a move. I highly doubt OEL re-signs with us or that Duchene would re-sign if acquired. So, I guess it comes down to who would you rather have for two seasons, OEL or Duchene? As much as I like OEL (who also had a down year last season--we just know some of the reasons), a potential 50-70 point scorer would be nice to add, but an elite D-man is tough to replace as well. Our defense would be pretty horrible as well if we lose OEL (not to mention a pished off Hjalms).

I doubt we trade OEL after giving him the C and acquiring a D partner for him who has played with him in the past and expressed interest in playing with him in the NHL.

 

[Jakey53]

I agree that our defensive corps was awful last year. Our forwards, particularly centers, were awful last year. Both areas need to be improved.

Unfortunately, for the time being and probably up until the tread deadline, no blue chip defensemen are going to become available to us. Duchenne is a blue chip forward. Despite the claims that he is radioactive for reasons of attitude or whatever, Duchenne would instantly become the highest point producer on the team, by far. Let's keep our eye on the ring here. We won't be improving everything in one season. If this season we can improve our forwards, let's do it.

Stepan is a step above Hanzal, and having a full year of Richardson will help quite a bit. I would rather improve our D than our forwards.