How Will We Do With No Further Major Moves?

[rt]

We've had a full blown leadership and coaching turnover. The roster is going to be extremely young and inexperienced. I think we will struggle hard out of the gate and eventually get our act together and finish strong. I think we will choose to sit on our hands at the deadline, citing our progress and we will be rewarded with a great finish and a ton of hope for next season. Something like:

First 21gp - 5-13-3
Next 20gp - 8-11-1
Next 20gp - 10-8-2
Final 21gp - 15-4-2

1st Half: 13-24-4 (26-48-8 - 60pt pace)
2nd Half: 25-12-4 (50-24-8 - 108pt pace)
Full Season: 38-36-8 - 84pts

We FINALLY get some lottery luck and move from 9th to 3rd and pick Ryan Merkley.

What do you guys think?

Click to read more...

 

[SniperHF]

I basically agree with your post on the general trajectory except I don't think the point total will be in the 80's. More likely mid to high 70's. If Strome or Keller is a smash hit I can see it being a bit higher.

But I strongly disagree about lottery luck


I'm not sure they'll be quite that bad in the early going. If Raanta is good and OEL comes back strong, with the infusion of Hjalmarsson and Stepan I don't think they'll be quite as dumpster fiery as 5 wins in 21 games. Add a few wins early and hack a few off on that L20 prediction. I actually haven't looked at the early schedule though so if it's super tough I might change my mind



I also reserve the right to adjust this prediction when we have the prediction thread

 

[rt]

I basically agree with your post on the general trajectory except I don't think the point total will be in the 80's. More likely mid to high 70's. If Strome or Keller is a smash hit I can see it being a bit higher.

But I strongly disagree about lottery luck


I'm not sure they'll be quite that bad in the early going. If Raanta is good and OEL comes back strong, with the infusion of Hjalmarsson and Stepan I don't think they'll be quite as dumpster fiery as 5 wins in 21 games. Add a few wins early and hack a few off on that L20 prediction. I actually haven't looked at the early schedule though so if it's super tough I might change my mind



I also reserve the right to adjust this prediction when we have the prediction thread

If Strome and Keller are smash hits it won't be out of the gate. Also, Chychrun will miss some time and come back slowly. So I do think we will have a hell of an ugly start. Domi had a looong layoff too. Plus an adjustment period for Stepan and Hjalmarsson.

 

[Lilhoody]

I cant say you'd be wrong with no moves. I want you to be wrong and i'd like to see three more REG wins and four more REG ties. 10 more points might be an exciting ending.

 

[SniperHF]

If Strome and Keller are smash hits it won't be out of the gate. Also, Chychrun will miss some time and come back slowly. So I do think we will have a hell of an ugly start. Domi had a looong layoff too. Plus an adjustment period for Stepan and Hjalmarsson.

When I say smash hit I definitely meant right away. Which I don't think is likely at all.

I can see the adjustment period being an issue but it's not quite the same as say taking Goligoski and having him find a place in the pecking order in an existing environment. Given that there's a new coach and system coming it's conceivable that it's built around those new acquisitions and the adjustment period isn't as difficult or long.

The Chychrun issue I'm just not as concerned about in the near term. Sure I'd rather have him than not but it's still likely 3rd pairing minutes.

 

[Summer Rose]

We're certainly due for a rough start. New coach, new players, new system, and Chychrun injured. I hope it's not as bad as you predicted but I won't be surprised if it is. If we can finish strong then it'll be a good sign, though.

 

[Grimes]

I honestly think the season may be the exact opposite than rt's projections. Come out the gate roaring; between a new system that let's the kids play with more freedom, other teams not having video on the system/so many young players who haven't been pinned down yet, and a goalie with everything to prove. I think they will be exciting throughout the whole season and we will have 2-4 players in the top 50 in points.

I think the length of the season may become taxing on the younger players and we are another injury or two from looking shoddy at best. Unlike the Tippett systems that capitalized on mistakes and teams playing lazy hockey late in the season, I think the team will struggle more in Feb/March rather than excelling in these months.

Realistically, I think the team ends in the 25-20th place range, and my gut just wants to believe we finally get lucky with the lottery and move up, making the 7th OA for Stepan look even more palatable. The optimist in me thinks that if everything goes right we finish 3rd in the division. To me the Ducks are the only lock. A McDavid/Talbot injury could really hurt EDM, SJ will take a step down, we know Smith is injury prone and L.A is on the decline. Highly unlikely, but we have seen this happen when rebuilding teams sneak in because the stars align like COL, LUMBUS and even CAL a few seasons back.

I'd still put money on moving up in the lottery, than making the playoffs though.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I'm not sure we'll start that slow, but that's the kind of season I've been envisioning. Slow start while everyone adjusts, pick up some steam, and finish strong. When Chychrun returns it could be a big boost, his injury will definitely make the start even tougher.

 

[Llewzaher]

I honestly think the season may be the exact opposite than rt's projections. Come out the gate roaring; between a new system that let's the kids play with more freedom, other teams not having video on the system/so many young players who haven't been pinned down yet, and a goalie with everything to prove. I think they will be exciting throughout the whole season and we will have 2-4 players in the top 50 in points.

I think the length of the season may become taxing on the younger players and we are another injury or two from looking shoddy at best. Unlike the Tippett systems that capitalized on mistakes and teams playing lazy hockey late in the season, I think the team will struggle more in Feb/March rather than excelling in these months.

Realistically, I think the team ends in the 25-20th place range, and my gut just wants to believe we finally get lucky with the lottery and move up, making the 7th OA for Stepan look even more palatable. The optimist in me thinks that if everything goes right we finish 3rd in the division. To me the Ducks are the only lock. A McDavid/Talbot injury could really hurt EDM, SJ will take a step down, we know Smith is injury prone and L.A is on the decline. Highly unlikely, but we have seen this happen when rebuilding teams sneak in because the stars align like COL, LUMBUS and even CAL a few seasons back.

I'd still put money on moving up in the lottery, than making the playoffs though.

I kind of agree with this.... I think we will have a great start and suprise alot of teams.. And then taper off.

And I have a hard time believing we will have lottery luck.

 

[Englishcoyote]

would'nt it be typical if we were to finish 20th-25th in the overall standings but the teams 27th -31st ended up with the lottery picks.

i hoping for a breakout from keller and strome, and for duke to get back on track. anttii to have hopefully .915-.925 and a 30+ win season, and for oel to have 50+ points and a norris nomination contention.

i know its a lot but not totally unimaginable

 

[Toadie]

First 21gp - 28 points
Next 20gp - 20 points
Next 20gp - 31 points (crazy but gut telling me so)
Final 21gp - 20 points (injuries to key players)

Finish year with 99 points

 

[BUX7PHX]

So, basically the same number of points that we likely would have gotten regardless of who the coach is - yep I buy into that.

I am probably less concerned about points as I am about being a tougher defensive team to play against. If we are better on defense, the points will come at a greater rate than if we are a significantly better offense.

But yeah, somewhere in the 76-85 point range seems about right.

 

[_Del_]

We were dangerously thin at D before the Chychrun injury. If they don't make a move, it's a failure in my grade book. No excuses.
We're going to be lucky to break 80 points regardless.

 

[Toadie]

So, basically the same number of points that we likely would have gotten regardless of who the coach is - yep I buy into that.
I am probably less concerned about points as I am about being a tougher defensive team to play against. If we are better on defense, the points will come at a greater rate than if we are a significantly better offense.

Didn't we have only 70 points last year? RT point increase is by 14 and mine is a 29 point increase, We would be the most improved team in the NHL. Also, we need to sell this team to the bandwagons fans and I believe that's through effort and offense. If we can start to make highlights reels the Yotes can improve on selling themselves

 

[Foggy1097]

I think we're going to be pretty hot out of the gate for a few reasons. These new players are going to be eager to prove themselves to the coaching staff and to their new teammates. Stepan, Hjalmarsson, Raanta, Strome, Keller, Fischer are all in that camp but I also have to think that those first two I named are going to raise the compete level of everyone in the room. The kids are going to learn from not just nice guys like Doan, Vrbata, Hanzal... but from actual winners...guys that have actually been there and done that and are considered elite players in this league. All of that combined I think is going to make for an exciting start because I think every player is going to be juiced for the start of the season. I also think that we're going to end up seeing one of the more tight knit locker rooms that we've ever seen on this team before.
With all of that being said, I think even if we do get off to the hot start, we'll probably taper off a little past the halfway point. If the young guys start to get too streaky because they're not used to the length of the season and the vets are asked to carry the team on their back in the latter half of the season then we'll probably struggle. Overall though I think we're going to be this year's version of TOR. I think we'll be right there in the last few weeks of the season in that 7-10 group fighting for a spot and hoping to sneak in.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I'm not sure that there's a move to be made regarding defensemen. The only high end talent available right now (that I am aware of) is Duchenne. I'd make a play for him without a doubt.

Without a major move I see us within 4 points of the last playoff spot at the end of the season, with an outside chance of making the playoffs. I base that on the addition of Hammer and Stepan, the improved play of Duclair, and contributions in the second half of the season by Keller and Strome.

 

[cobra427]

New coach, new goalie, new system, young players, could be better, could be worse, it is too early to predict how the team places.

The only major improvement that I see for sure is we have Chalmers as a top pairing D. Chalmers is way better then Schenn and he will make OEL better. Outside of that, Stepan is slightly better than Hanzal, Raanta who knows compared to smith, and past that we are counting on young guys to produce.

I'm hoping for a playoff spot but realistically we could be a 65-85 point team. Too many new moving parts to predict.

 

[SpaceCoyote]

I mostly just did this as a way to pass time during the off season, I know my projections here are entirely subjective and only very loosely based around stats. However, I put together some estimates I felt were realistic yet still provide a road to a playoff birth for this team. I projected each member of the team around the following goal totals, depending on a few things happening...

• Strome and Keller have a decent break out years akin to Dvorack and Perlini last season, not unreasonable given they're more highly projected.
• Duclair and McGinn bounce back to respectable numbers yet are still falling short of career highs
• OEL gets a boost from playing with Hjam, which gets him back to the 20 goal mark
• Everyone one else has seasons on par with their average career numbers.

Domi 20g - Stepan 17g - Duclair 18g
Perlini 23g - Dvorack 20g - Keller 18g
McGinn 11g - Strome 12g - Reider 14g
Martinook 9g - Cousins 6g - Richardson 8g
Crouse 5g
Fisher 4g
(185)

OEL 20g -Hjam 5g
Gogo 8g - Schenn 3g
KC 3g - Wood 3g
Cheldening 2g
Chyrchrun 6g (Misses the half of the season)
(50)

Totaling 235 Goals, 12th in the league last season.

So... looking at our Goalies career stats, figure they'll share starts 60/22.

Raanta 2.32 * 60 = 140g
Domingue 2.87 * 22 = 63g

203 total goals against, 7th last season.


2.48 GAA on the season
2.87 GFA on the season

.39 difference

So... looking at this number from last season which strongly correlates to the point standings, puts us 7th and most likely a playoff birth:

1 Washington Capitals 1.02
2 Minnesota Wild 0.70
3 Columbus Blue Jackets 0.66
4 Pittsburgh Penguins 0.60
5 New York Rangers 0.45
6 Edmonton Oilers 0.44
7 Chicago Blackhawks 0.34
8 Montreal Canadiens 0.30
9 Anaheim Ducks 0.28
10 Boston Bruins 0.28
11 San Jose Sharks 0.23
12 Nashville Predators 0.22
13 St. Louis Blues 0.21
14 Toronto Maple Leafs 0.20
15 Tampa Bay Lightning 0.07
16 Calgary Flames 0.04
17 New York Islanders 0.01
18 Los Angeles Kings -0.02
19 Ottawa Senators -0.05
20 Winnipeg Jets -0.11
21 Carolina Hurricanes -0.22
22 Philadelphia Flyers -0.23
23 Florida Panthers -0.32
24 Buffalo Sabres -0.39
25 Dallas Stars -0.46
26 Detroit Red Wings -0.56
27 New Jersey Devils -0.74
28 Vancouver Canucks -0.77
29 Arizona Coyotes -0.82
30 Colorado Avalanche -1.35

 

[Coyotedroppings]

I love optimism!

 

[BUX7PHX]

Didn't we have only 70 points last year? RT point increase is by 14 and mine is a 29 point increase, We would be the most improved team in the NHL. Also, we need to sell this team to the bandwagons fans and I believe that's through effort and offense. If we can start to make highlights reels the Yotes can improve on selling themselves

I suppose, but remember that 70 points came with losing arguably two of our most important forwards (Richardson and Domi) for just under a combined 100 games, correct? We were 14-15-4 once Domi came back on 02FEB, amassing nearly half of our points in the span of 33 games. When all is said and done, I put us on the same sort of trajectory as rt had stated - probably start slow and start to see further progress toward the end of the year - no different from last year. One of our issues was losing two players that really helped to stabilize our lineup and the hope is that this year, we have enough depth (even young depth) to overcome some of that with some more bona fide veterans in the lineup.

My hope is also that what had been developing over the second half of the season continues at the onset of the season. As the season wore on, I don't think that a lot of teams were crazy about playing us, b/c things were starting to come together from a comfort level on the ice, even if the results were still not spectacular game in and game out.

 

[cobra427]

I mostly just did this as a way to pass time during the off season, I know my projections here are entirely subjective and only very loosely based around stats. However, I put together some estimates I felt were realistic yet still provide a road to a playoff birth for this team. I projected each member of the team around the following goal totals, depending on a few things happening...

• Strome and Keller have a decent break out years akin to Dvorack and Perlini last season, not unreasonable given they're more highly projected.
• Duclair and McGinn bounce back to respectable numbers yet are still falling short of career highs
• OEL gets a boost from playing with Hjam, which gets him back to the 20 goal mark
• Everyone one else has seasons on par with their average career numbers.

Domi 20g - Stepan 17g - Duclair 18g
Perlini 23g - Dvorack 20g - Keller 18g
McGinn 11g - Strome 12g - Reider 14g
Martinook 9g - Cousins 6g - Richardson 8g
Crouse 5g
Fisher 4g
(185)

OEL 20g -Hjam 5g
Gogo 8g - Schenn 3g
KC 3g - Wood 3g
Cheldening 2g
Chyrchrun 6g (Misses the half of the season)
(50)

Totaling 235 Goals, 12th in the league last season.

So... looking at our Goalies career stats, figure they'll share starts 60/22.

Raanta 2.32 * 60 = 140g
Domingue 2.87 * 22 = 63g

203 total goals against, 7th last season.


2.48 GAA on the season
2.87 GFA on the season

.39 difference

So... looking at this number from last season which strongly correlates to the point standings, puts us 7th and most likely a playoff birth:

1 Washington Capitals 1.02
2 Minnesota Wild 0.70
3 Columbus Blue Jackets 0.66
4 Pittsburgh Penguins 0.60
5 New York Rangers 0.45
6 Edmonton Oilers 0.44
7 Chicago Blackhawks 0.34
8 Montreal Canadiens 0.30
9 Anaheim Ducks 0.28
10 Boston Bruins 0.28
11 San Jose Sharks 0.23
12 Nashville Predators 0.22
13 St. Louis Blues 0.21
14 Toronto Maple Leafs 0.20
15 Tampa Bay Lightning 0.07
16 Calgary Flames 0.04
17 New York Islanders 0.01
18 Los Angeles Kings -0.02
19 Ottawa Senators -0.05
20 Winnipeg Jets -0.11
21 Carolina Hurricanes -0.22
22 Philadelphia Flyers -0.23
23 Florida Panthers -0.32
24 Buffalo Sabres -0.39
25 Dallas Stars -0.46
26 Detroit Red Wings -0.56
27 New Jersey Devils -0.74
28 Vancouver Canucks -0.77
29 Arizona Coyotes -0.82
30 Colorado Avalanche -1.35

We scored 191 goals. our top goal scorer Verby is gone. I don't know how we score 44 more goals than last year. Even more monumental is going from 258 goals against last year to 203 goals against, a 55 goal swing. Chalmers will help but Smith played well. How are we going to reduce our GAA with Toch and his run and gun strategy?

I think we can make up the goals for Verby's loss and we will score more than 191 goals next year. The GAA worries me, don't see any reason that will come down significantly.

I'm rooting for your analysis to be correct

 

[Hinterland]

We scored 191 goals. our top goal scorer Verby is gone. I don't know how we score 44 more goals than last year. Even more monumental is going from 258 goals against last year to 203 goals against, a 55 goal swing. Chalmers will help but Smith played well. How are we going to reduce our GAA with Toch and his run and gun strategy?

I think we can make up the goals for Verby's loss and we will score more than 191 goals next year. The GAA worries me, don't see any reason that will come down significantly.

I'm rooting for your analysis to be correct

73 goals to replace. With Chychrun's 7 it's 80 goals in total. Who's gonna score them? The kids will probably score a few more and with a bit of luck, Domi will stay healthy. But asking the same team to score 80 goals more with basically no reinforcement whatsoever is difficult.
Especially since there's no serious right handed sniper on the team I'm pretty sceptical the Coyotes can even hit last season's total.

Looking at the first half of the schedule and the current roster, next season can only go south...too bad they traded for an aging defenseman just to lose again...

 

[Jakey53]

New coach, new goalie, new system, young players, could be better, could be worse, it is too early to predict how the team places.

The only major improvement that I see for sure is we have Chalmers as a top pairing D. Chalmers is way better then Schenn and he will make OEL better. Outside of that, Stepan is slightly better than Hanzal, Raanta who knows compared to smith, and past that we are counting on young guys to produce.

I'm hoping for a playoff spot but realistically we could be a 65-85 point team. Too many new moving parts to predict.

I agree. I thought we would have kept Smith for a bit a calm, but now who the hell knows what is going to happen.

 

[Jakey53]

We scored 191 goals. our top goal scorer Verby is gone. I don't know how we score 44 more goals than last year. Even more monumental is going from 258 goals against last year to 203 goals against, a 55 goal swing. Chalmers will help but Smith played well. How are we going to reduce our GAA with Toch and his run and gun strategy?

I think we can make up the goals for Verby's loss and we will score more than 191 goals next year. The GAA worries me, don't see any reason that will come down significantly.

I'm rooting for your analysis to be correct

73 goals to replace. With Chychrun's 7 it's 80 goals in total. Who's gonna score them? The kids will probably score a few more and with a bit of luck, Domi will stay healthy. But asking the same team to score 80 goals more with basically no reinforcement whatsoever is difficult.
Especially since there's no serious right handed sniper on the team I'm pretty sceptical the Coyotes can even hit last season's total.

Looking at the first half of the schedule and the current roster, next season can only go south...too bad they traded for an aging defenseman just to lose again...

There is so much uncertainty with the team this year it is absolutely scary.

 

[Jakey53]

I suppose, but remember that 70 points came with losing arguably two of our most important forwards (Richardson and Domi) for just under a combined 100 games, correct? We were 14-15-4 once Domi came back on 02FEB, amassing nearly half of our points in the span of 33 games. When all is said and done, I put us on the same sort of trajectory as rt had stated - probably start slow and start to see further progress toward the end of the year - no different from last year. One of our issues was losing two players that really helped to stabilize our lineup and the hope is that this year, we have enough depth (even young depth) to overcome some of that with some more bona fide veterans in the lineup.

My hope is also that what had been developing over the second half of the season continues at the onset of the season. As the season wore on, I don't think that a lot of teams were crazy about playing us, b/c things were starting to come together from a comfort level on the ice, even if the results were still not spectacular game in and game out.

Correct, except now we have a new coach, system and goalie. Who knows what to expect. We have to start out good, if not, we will be tanking for a top pick. We have to get momentum early for the kids to get that confidence and build on it throughout the year. If we start out slow this could get ugly real quick.