How/When Will This Team Find Their Gaudreau/Gallagher/Stone Etc?

[redgrant]

So far all we've been hearing about is how Hall/Ebs etc should be traded for Hamonic/OEL etc.

When is this team going to address the deeper problem that for over a decade they cant find no diamond in the rough?

It would be great if they could actually find a Mark Stone at around 100 or Johnny Gaudreau who would probably go #1 if that draft was redone.

It seems like about 80% of teams have players outside the first round that are proven regulars whether on the 1st line or 4th line where as the Oilers remain one team fully reliant on Bob Mackenzie's scouting report to do all their homework in the 1st round. After that 1st round they are completely out of ideas and draft more or less useless garbage.

Why is this and when on Earth is it going to change?

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[Mcnofool6110]

Blind nut and a squirrel, or something.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Well for one, this team needs to be willing to give a chance to the "mid-range" talent. A lot of the time the rosters spot are already locked up for the established guys or top end picks.

For example Rieder could have been that guy; had things gone a little smoother, perhaps the same could have been said about Omark, but this team didn't have the spots for them. Hell it didn't(doesn't) even have the spots for all the established talent (Hemsky, Perron) and wonder kids (Yakupov, MPS, Nillson, Cogliano, Brule, Brodziak, Pouliot, Marincin) to get the roles they needed to be effective.



Davidson and Khaira are you're best hopes right now.

 

[Oilers10]

For years I've said the Oilers are horrible and drafting and development but for the first while alot of HF fans mocked that statement. Can't argue with results now.

I think with the connections Nicholson has and the experience Chiarelli has, that our later round picks will turnout a lot more often than it used to. I really believe in the new management staff. Lowe/Mact I had no confidence in.

Some of our picks have been just mindless like Kevan Bouchard or drafting those BCHL guy, Moroz, Musil etc etc.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Well for one, this team needs to be willing to give a chance to the "mid-range" talent. A lot of the time the rosters spot are already locked up for the established guys or top end picks.

For example Rieder could have been that guy; had things gone a little smoother, perhaps the same could have been said about Omark, but this team didn't have the spots for them. Hell it didn't(doesn't) even have the spots for all the established talent (Hemsky, Perron) and wonder kids (Yakupov, MPS, Nillson, Cogliano, Brule, Brodziak, Pouliot, Marincin) to get the roles they needed to be effective.



Davidson and Khaira are you're best hopes right now.

Very thankful they didn't cut him lose for Nurse. Would have been old boys club mentality.

 

[Tarus]

Hard to find a diamond in the rough when the organizational mandate is to draft 3rd line grinder types in the 2nd round and beyond. Players who make good defensive grinders in the junior leagues tend not to have the skill level to achieve that status in the NHL, too bad the Oilers braintrust could never figure that out.

The horrific development model of the organization has also played a factor as most of the players drafted over the last decade watched their potential careers straight up die in the Oiler's system. Other teams actually develop talent that have raw skillsets, they don't let them waste away in the minors and then cut them loose when they don't magically turn into NHL level players.

It's probable the Oilers will begin finding useful players in the later rounds now that the "we're going to fill every position of need through the draft" management types have been mostly ousted.

 

[Gret99zky]

The scouting is mediocre/subpar. Management over-rules the scouting at the draft.

Hopefully the scouting is upgraded and new management starts trusting them.

 

[smokersarejokers]

Drafting is the main reason they've been so terrible for so long. More than coaching, more than veterans, etc.

Every single team has mid round picks make their team. Hell, even 2nd round picks. The Oilers have their 1st round "wonderkids" and a bunch of free agents. That's horrible.

Davidson looked great this year and Rieder looked great with AZ, but what else is there to show for the last few drafts? Some guys are doing OK in the AHL, but every good team has guys step up.

At least the last couple of drafts under Bob Green instead of Stu seem more promising.

Bear, Marino, Paigin, Jones all seem pretty legit.

 

[Raab]

Firing MacT, Lowe, and the Scouts would be a good start. Not gonna find good players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds when you can't even identify who the best player is with the 1st overall pick.

 

[belair]

Simply put these aren't the players the organization is trying to find right now. The main priority is to build a solid defense.

The trading of the Mathew Barzal pick is an example of that. You could find yourself with an upward trending forward prospect, but instead Chiarelli went with an organizational need and traded for a young, up-and-coming defender.

Didn't read the OP, obviously.

 

[Roof Daddy]

Here's hoping Bear or Jones are that.

As someone already mentioned, Davidson has impressed well beyond expectations. His skill and physical talents are average at best, but he gets full marks for hockey IQ and poise. Doesn't put him in the category the OP is looking for, but a diamond in the rough based on draft position.

 

[GMofOilers]

Drafting has been so horrible its not even funny. Look at our 2nd round picks history. Not good enough!

 

[Birdperson]

They already traded him to Arizona for Kale Kessy.

 

[OilTastic]

Firing MacT, Lowe, and the Scouts would be a good start. Not gonna find good players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds when you can't even identify who the best player is with the 1st overall pick.

our amateur scouting staff was fired before last years draft, hence the fact we ended up with some good players with potential when we drafted and not a bunch of Adain Muirs, Evan Campbells and Liam Coughlins, or BCHLers!

 

[ekcut]

Hard to find a diamond in the rough when the organizational mandate is to draft 3rd line grinder types in the 2nd round and beyond. Players who make good defensive grinders in the junior leagues tend not to have the skill level to achieve that status in the NHL, too bad the Oilers braintrust could never figure that out.

The horrific development model of the organization has also played a factor as most of the players drafted over the last decade watched their potential careers straight up die in the Oiler's system. Other teams actually develop talent that have raw skillsets, they don't let them waste away in the minors and then cut them loose when they don't magically turn into NHL level players.

It's probable the Oilers will begin finding useful players in the later rounds now that the "we're going to fill every position of need through the draft" management types have been mostly ousted.

Don't let facts get in the way at all.

I'm not defending the Oilers drafting, which has be the worst in the league going all the way back to the early 80's, But in no way are they focusing on just the grinders past the third round. Let this be a life lesson to you, you can be rightfully outraged without having to make stuff up. Stick to the facts!

 

[Zaddy]

I'm hopeful that our fortunates are about to change. The Bear, Jones, Paigin (and even Marino) picks were all great value for where they were picked, and I said as much on draft day. Now, I don't know if that was just a one-off thing or what but we're about to find out in 2½ months or so.

What I'm interested in is to see if Chia can identity the right players in the 2nd and 3rd round. Getting a 2nd pairing defenseman, a middle-six forward or better from those rounds is really important.

In 2010 Faulk, Spooner and Toffoli emerged from the top90.
In 2009 you had O'Reilly, Barrie, Silfverberg, Lehner, Orlov, Tatar, Eakin.
In 2008 there was Voynov, Josi, Hamonic, Stepan, Henrique, Scandella, Michael Stone, Jimmy Hayes and you can add in Zack Smith, Jake Allen, Michael Hutchinson and Jacob Markström if you want. Pretty funny just how many good NHLers came out of the 2nd and 3rd round that year. Of course the Oilers didn't have a pick in either round. Although we eventually snagged Schultz from Anaheim...

Hell, much of the Bruins core were built on 2nd and 3rd round picks (Bergeron, Krejci, Marchand).

I think this is where the Oilers have failed big time with picks like Pitlick, Musil, Moroz, Lander, Marincin, Roy etc. Therefore I am very curious to see what Chia is going to do with those picks. Strong drafting (and development) is what builds championship teams. Not big trades and expensive FA signings. Obviously I wasn't a fan of dealing away two prime picks last year but if we ignore that I was very happy with the players we actually did pick. If Chia can keep it up then the Oilers have a very solid base to stand on and that will lend this team success in the long-run and hopefully allow us to keep competing even when we can't afford some players anymore.

 

[Aceboogie]

Its luck. Pure and simple. If it was good drafting why haven't those teams picked another one or two of them.

- 90% of prospects after pick ~65 are largely homogenous for upside. 10% are clearly busts (bchl overagers under ppg, chl D under 20 points). But from that 90% you'll get lucky with 1 and they'll become a stud

Oilers over picked from 10% from 2008-2012. We've finally started picking largely from 90%. So who knows, maybe they are in chl or khl right now

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

There's a ton of luck involved, but teams can do a lot to maximize their chances. Edmonton has been taking a combination of low upside guys to fill projected needs and some higher upside guys. If we shift it more to the latter, we'll start finding gems more often.

We also have mediocre scouting.

 

[Gone]

Its luck. Pure and simple. If it was good drafting why haven't those teams picked another one or two of them.

- 90% of prospects after pick ~65 are largely homogenous for upside. 10% are clearly busts (bchl overagers under ppg, chl D under 20 points). But from that 90% you'll get lucky with 1 and they'll become a stud

Oilers haven't over picked from 10% from 2008-2012. We've finally started picking largely from 90%. So who knows, maybe they are in chl or khl right now

Luck, really? Then teams should just have a random number generator pick the players for them. Let's look at the lucky Flames for example:

2013: Sean Monahan 6th overall, looks like the best player from that draft
2011: Every pick has spent time in the NHL, notably Johnny Gaudreau was luckily available at 104th overall, after the Oilers drafted such skill as Musil, Perhonen, Ewanyk, and Simpson.
2008: Brodie is taken 114th.

Maybe its a bit more than luck. Maybe its having that one scout who can see that a certain kid has undeniable skill that will rise above. Gaudreau is a good example, small and skilled. But at the time the Oilers were focused on drafting coke machines.

Maybe the problem is management and scouting.

 

[Aceboogie]

Luck, really? Then teams should just have a random number generator pick the players for them. Let's look at the lucky Flames for example:

2013: Sean Monahan 6th overall, looks like the best player from that draft
2011: Every pick has spent time in the NHL, notably Johnny Gaudreau was luckily available at 104th overall, after the Oilers drafted such skill as Musil, Perhonen, Ewanyk, and Simpson.
2008: Brodie is taken 114th.

Maybe its a bit more than luck. Maybe its having that one scout who can see that a certain kid has undeniable skill that will rise above. Gaudreau is a good example, small and skilled. But at the time the Oilers were focused on drafting coke machines.

Maybe the problem is management and scouting.

Yes Luck. The Flames have actually had worse drafting that the Oilers in past 10 years funny enough. So they are the case 1 to show its luck

In 2008 the Flames picked Greg Nemisz, Mitch Wahl, Lance Bouma and Nick Larson ahead of their future top pairing D, TJ Brodie. Hmm wonder why such a skilled drafting team let such a stud fall. Almost as if they got extremely lucky. Just 2 years prior, the entire flames 2006 draft played a total of 13 games (all by Leland irving). The entire 2007 draft was Backlund, the 2009 draft was made up of Joni Ortio. They picked Tim Erixon 23 overall. The 2010 draft- highlighted by Ferland, the rest are busts. Extend it to 2006 nd Flames have around 42 picks total. 2 who became NHLers (Brodie and Backlund). 1 pick from after 1st that become an NHLer. You want to tell me thats skill drafting? 2 for 42? ok then.

So lets see, from 2006 to 2010, apart from Brodie, the Flames landed a total of 2 NHLers (if you can call Ferland an NHLer). The rest never played in NHL or played under 20 games

In that same period, Oilers land Petry, Nash (traded for a now NHLer), Peckham, Eberle, Lander, Davidson (excluded top 10 picks for obvious reasons)

In 2011, I will 100% agree thats bad scouting. As I said in my post, 10% are obvious busts. Musil, Ewanyk, Perhohan were all embodiments of bad picks. Low scoring or brutal sv%. Thats 3 picks from the 10% (in a row). Honestly, I could grab a ISS final listing for 2011, hang the 2nd-4th round projections on a wall and throw three darts at it and I would likely land 2 NHLers

The draft is largely pure luck. If it was skill, wed see teams repedatly hit lower round picks, or have no busts from 1st round. Luck is why we see all these late round gems spread around the league and wind up on bad drafting teams even. I know 15 years is a long time, but it wasnt that long ago Oilers had found, Comrie, Green, Brodziak, Stoll

 

[MessierII]

They already traded him to Arizona for Kale Kessy.

This is what I came to say. Toby Reider was to a lesser extent that guy.

 

[McDrai]

They already traded him to Arizona for Kale Kessy.

While I hated that trade, Rieder would have been redundant on this team. And for a supposed 3rd liner he has a pretty horrible plus/minus

 

[Stud Muffin]

They found Davidson already.

 

[OilTastic]

Its luck. Pure and simple. If it was good drafting why haven't those teams picked another one or two of them.

- 90% of prospects after pick ~65 are largely homogenous for upside. 10% are clearly busts (bchl overagers under ppg, chl D under 20 points). But from that 90% you'll get lucky with 1 and they'll become a stud

Oilers over picked from 10% from 2008-2012. We've finally started picking largely from 90%. So who knows, maybe they are in chl or khl right now

i'm starting to believe that it's luck as well. seems only Detroit can identify more mid and later round players that can play in the NHL draft after draft because they look for the same players every draft that they have already had success with. the Oilers should take a serious look at the type of players the Wings take every draft, it can't hurt.

 

[OilTastic]

While I hated that trade, Rieder would have been redundant on this team. And for a supposed 3rd liner he has a pretty horrible plus/minus

didn't Rieder see the writing on the wall after the Oilers drafted Nail? and with Hemsky and Eberle already here, asked for a trade? so we never actually traded him because we wanted Kessy so bad.