News Article: How the Leafs Gamed the Draft

[Doug Gilmour]

This is a very good article. I didn't understand why so many fans were "dismayed" by the overager picks on Saturday. I really liked the Adam Brooks and Woll picks. We also have to look at it from this angle when it comes to overage players, they can play in the AHL unlike an 18 year old too good for the CHL but not quite ready for the NHL (i.e. Marner comes to mind). Now I'm not saying go overage with every pick but rather that age isn't a factor if they play the game and play it well.

Dubas and Hunter are wonderful additions to this team's scouting/management. Analytics and pure scouting combine for a knockout combination. I'm glad they enjoyed Moneyball and Trouble with the curve as much as I do

 

[Drew75]

I think people get upset during the draft because they go into it with their own lists based on players they are familiar with. When the Leafs take a guy they have never heard of over some guy they have read about / watched Youtube on - they figure the Leaf brass must be making a mistake.

Other than the Middleton pick - I didn't see one single complaint that was based on "this guy has these glaring holes in his game" or something of the sort - every complaint was around "I wanted them to take so-and-so".

I'll put my faith in the professionals who invest millions travelling the globe to do this for a living. The Leaf brass is intentionally looking for guys who were overlooked / under-scouted in order to try and capitalize on 'market inefficiencies'.

Even with the Middleton pick, the reports are that the kid has a great attitude, works hard, and his skating has been improving at a rapid pace over the past year or two. If we end up with a 6'6 mobile Mac-Truck D in our bottom pairing - I'll take it. I know the argument that you can always pick up bottom pairing guys for cheap - but NOT 6'6 tough as nails ones!

 

[BayStreetBully]

I wouldn't say the Leafs gamed anything yet. That's too complimentary a word. I trust their choices, but we'll see how it all unfolds in 5 years.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I don't think that inefficiency was gone... Abramov went 65, and he's far better than Bracco IMO, Debrincat was still available with 31. If high skill regardless of size had been our strategy this year I would quite easily take the crop of guys available to us this year over who we took last year.

They did obviously explore what they feel is a different inefficiency. I do like some of our picks. I just think they reached too far on the Korshkov pick

The problem with the smaller guys isn't only based on personal bias. Typically smaller scoring forwards are a defensive liability who have trouble playing in a bottom 6 role. The leafs already have mighty mites Marner, Timashov, Brown, Bracco and Leipsic in the system and were lacking in gritty 2 way power wingers which they addressed by adding Korshkov, Grundstrom and Rychel who have the flexibility of playing up and down the lineup.

Komarov was the only guy currently filling that role.

 

[Nithoniniel]

The problem with the smaller guys isn't only based on personal bias. Typically smaller scoring forwards are a defensive liability who have trouble playing in a bottom 6 role. The leafs already have mighty mites Marner, Timashov, Bracco and Leipsic in the system and were lacking in gritty 2 way power wingers which they addressed by adding Korshkov, Grundstrom and Rychel who have the flexibility of playing up and down the lineup.

Komarov was the only guy currently filling that role.

Teams are not built with a top 6/bottom 6 in mind any longer. Smaller scoring guys are really not necessarily defensive liabilities. The two are completely unconnected, and Marner for example is already a two-way player.

Grundström doesn't have any more flexibility to play up and down the lineup than a Marner has, it's just that Marner is so much better that nobody would entertain the thought of him on a lower line.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Teams are not built with a top 6/bottom 6 in mind any longer. Smaller scoring guys are really not necessarily defensive liabilities. The two are completely unconnected, and Marner for example is already a two-way player.

Grundström doesn't have any more flexibility to play up and down the lineup than a Marner has, it's just that Marner is so much better that nobody would entertain the thought of him on a lower line.

The point I was making is that there's only so many spots in the lineup for small scoring forwards. Marner and Brown are basically locks to make the team in the fall. Leipsic, Timashov and Bracco have an outside chance. If you add an Abramov to that mix then you become unbalanced. You need some players who are capable of puck retrieval in the corners.

One could argue that you should draft an Abramov then trade one of the other small guys but keeping them in the same lineup together is not a recipe for success.

 

[rrc1967]

a little early to say they are "winners".

however I likened the overagers are being essentially moving the draft year back and drafting more players from the 2015 entry level draft.

which i thought was a pretty clever idea to have more players available around the same time, and to foster more internal competition.

I'm sure they are all projects, but you gained a year for really nothing.

 

[Snacks Kassian]

Great article. Love the direction management has taken this team. We will have a better idea of how good this draft class truly is after another year of development and having the fan base zero in on all these prospects.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Good article to break down the analytics of it all, but it's hard to say they've made some sort of drafting revelation until we see how these kids pan out.

One thing I will say though it adds some intrigue to some of these big guys the Leafs selected. Finding good players with size in the later rounds is a massive coup - and if the Leafs have scouted a way to do it more often, that's big.

 

[Mess]

Great post!

Everytime I read a post that has someone complaining because they wanted this team to draft the same way as last year. I think to myself - "what is this person talking about? They did!"

Outside the 1st round, there is an average probability of a successful pick of likely <30%. The Leafs are looking at ways to improve their odds

After the small skilled draft of 2015 that saw 6 of 9 players 5-11 or smaller and <175lbs, the objective was clear to inject talent in the prospect pool and not focus on the size it came in.

This year you could have bet safe money $$ that they would never do that again as proof 8 of their 11 picks were 6-2 or bigger and +200lbs at time of draft (10 of 11 picks 6' or bigger). So the objective was diversity and size and grit moved up the BPA criteria formula to address organizational identifiable weaknesses.

You can't build a prospect pool to supply NHL talent by having nothing but small skilled players/wingers available as reserves. So Leafs recognized an organizational deficiency and addressed that this draft in 2016.

Next year we are more likely to see a better balance after the correction this year.

 

[Menzinger]

Teams are not built with a top 6/bottom 6 in mind any longer. Smaller scoring guys are really not necessarily defensive liabilities. The two are completely unconnected, and Marner for example is already a two-way player.

Grundström doesn't have any more flexibility to play up and down the lineup than a Marner has, it's just that Marner is so much better that nobody would entertain the thought of him on a lower line.

True on both accounts. Babcock's Leafs will run with three scoring lines and SIZE does not mean a player is good defensively, as you say Marner will likely be as effective in a two way role than most of the bigger players of his draft class - case in point compare his two way play to Strome.

 

[Menzinger]

I also won't be surprised to find out that the Leafs didn't consider this a particularly strong draft class beyond the top 10.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

The strategy Hunter and Management had in place going into the draft is much clearer as the days go by.

Nobody expected the course they followed but apparently there is some new trends and development ideas teams will be using. Complications are sure to grow also. Chl players drafted have a stringent set of rules and clauses towards timeframe for signing to a contract, where they can play etc.

Chl players don't give teams the flexability of development that College players or European players give. Free years of development and holding the players rights is coming into the picture in a big way.

There might be a landslide of change at future drafts towards Chl players. I'm kind of thinking that where is best to develope is not hands down Chl any longer for Canadian players.

This article and the link to analytics in it is actually overwhelming to the potential of less Canadian players being drafted. www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2016/06/taking-older-players-at-the-nhl-draft-a-new


Maybe we are in for some serious negatives to developing in Canada.

 

[arrbez]

Hopefully it'll be better than moneyball. As a huge baseball nerd it was thoroughly disappointing. I would have preferred a documentary.

Scott Hatteberg taking walks was way more important to their success than having 3 ace pitchers who may not have even been mentioned in the movie

 

[TOGuy14]

I thought I read something that indicated their strategy was to lean towards older players who showed leadership and big performances on winning teams from their respective junior clubs?

 

[theIceWookie]

I'll re-post the list of draftees not taken in their first year of eligibility from the 2011 draft or more recent drafts who have already played significant NHL minutes:

Viktor Arvidsson
Klas Dahlbeck
Andy Andreoff
Andrew Shaw
Josh Manson
Iiro Pakarinen
Jyrki Jokipakka
Alexey Marchenko
Ondrej Palat
Colin Miller
Ben Hutton
Cedric Paquette
Erik Gustafsson
Frederik Andersen
Colton Parayko
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jordan Martinook
Andrew Copp
Sven Andrighetto
Mattias Janmark-Nylen

Seems like it's becoming a legit way to find players, sometimes very good players.

Those are some pretty notable players. Your list is missing Tanner Pearson too. He's probably the guy taken the highest, having gone first round after being passed over in two previous drafts. Couple other players on that list have shown some good potential too.

Though while the Leafs went heavy on second and third time eligible players, they weren't the only ones in the draft to do it.

50 players were picked that had gone through the draft at least once. FIFTY. Only two teams DIDN'T take a player who had been passed over once. Certainly wasn't limited to just the Leafs

 

[Kurtz]

The problem with the smaller guys isn't only based on personal bias. Typically smaller scoring forwards are a defensive liability who have trouble playing in a bottom 6 role.

I don't believe there is any correlation between height and defensive ability. You don't need to look much further than the 5'10 Datsyuk winning 3 Selke's in a row, or the diminutive Draper, or Peca, or Yzerman or Lehtinen...in fact the only big guy to win a Selke over the past 20 years or so has been Kopitar.

 

[Vexed]

If you feel that a player can be selected later, and the risk is worthwhile, you optimize your returns by trading down.

If the right move is available sure. But its not like you can just snap your fingers and get to a spot you feel comfortable at. The extra assets may not balance the risk on missing the guys you really want

 

[Kurtz]

You can't build a prospect pool to supply NHL talent by having nothing but small skilled players/wingers available as reserves. So Leafs recognized an organizational deficiency and addressed that this draft in 2016.

See, this is exactly the sort of poor logic that exists with some posters (and GMs!). You don't address organizational weakness through the draft. You draft the best available players in the draft, and then you address organizational weaknesses through free agent signings and trades.

Trying to address organizational weaknesses is what causes you to draft a guy like Tyler Biggs in the first round. The poor drafting GMS draft for organizational weakness. Hunter/Dubas draft on talent though exploiting market weaknesses (let's call it Moneypuck).

 

[Kamal007]

Hopefully he doesn't evolve into the 2014 version of Billy Beane that traded last year's MVP for the mascot of the Red Bull energy drink and Kendall Graveman.

I wouldn't hope for Dubas to be compared to Beane, I would look to a guy like Theo Epstein. Just look at what he is doing with the cubs, sounds like something the Leafs are doing as well:

Cubs scouts are expected to be the first ones in a prospect's home. Hitters are put through a battery of proprietary video-game-style tests to gauge hand-eye coordination and pitch recognition. Cubs players at every level are required to play these "games" daily. This reliance on "neuro-scouting" is a byproduct of Epstein's contention that analytics are flat because anyone with a credit card and a laptop has access to the same information as big league decision makers. The scouts are expected to determine the answers to an exhaustive list of questions. Who is the family's decision maker? How clean do they keep the house? Who does most of the talking? Is this the type of kid who'll be able to handle living away from his parents and girlfriend?

"The currency of the draft is information," Epstein says. "Scouting information, statistical information, makeup information, medical information. In each of those buckets, we have to drill deeper if we want to have an advantage."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...d-chicago-cubs-blueprint-boston-espn-magazine

These guys seem to be looking forward at every step, never content.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Scott Hatteberg taking walks was way more important to their success than having 3 ace pitchers who may not have even been mentioned in the movie

Or the MVP SS Tejada He didn't deserve the MVP that year but it still speaks volumes of how they twisted the story into this group of ragtag ball players who almost won it all.

 

[Pholus]

Frederik Andersen shouldn't be on that list. He was drafted by Carolina and then couldn't come to terms with them so he re-entered the draft. Not the same as not being drafted at all.

Andersen was born in Oct 1989, mean his first year of draft eligibility was 2008. He was not drafted by Carolina until 2010, his 3rd year of draft eligibility. He absolutely belongs on the list, and is one of the best players on it.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Was initially unhappy during the draft, but seeing the logic behind our choices makes me more comfortable.
By no means should we (or any team) should be writing off the draft as a success until above average results emerge from the picks.
My only issue currently was that some picks were huge reaches, and it would have been wiser to trade down.

Lets reconvene in 4 years and see.

 

[buttman*]

You haven't "gamed" anything until you have a couple good players from it.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Interested to see how these picks turn out:

Korchkov
Woll
Greenway
Brooks
Middleton