News Article: How the Leafs Gamed the Draft

[BillyD]

Found this article and liked it, wondering what you guys think:

A few things stand out about these eleven new Leafs. First and foremost, they’re huge. Eight of them stand 6’2″ or taller, and six are over 200 pounds. Secondly, it seems odd that Mark Hunter – forever an OHL guy – would pick just two from that league. He took nobody from the CHL at all for his first five turns on the microphone. There’s the almost obligatory London Knight there in Nicolas Mattinen, but even he was the lowest-profile Knight eligible this year.

Finally, and most interestingly, Toronto picked five players who have been passed over in previous drafts. Yegor Korshkov, Adam Brooks, Vladimir Bobylyov, Jack Walker, and Nikolai Chebykin are all overage selections. Korshkov, Brooks, and Walker were all passed over twice (in 2014 and 2015).

So why was this the game plan for Hunter and co.? With such trends in the group of draftees (Auston Matthews notwithstanding), this was clearly a calculated, strategic decision.

Full article: http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/06/26/market-inefficiencies-leafs-draft-strategy-brilliant/

Click to read more...

 

[67Cup]

Very interesting article. Thanks for finding it. One error in the article: Andrew Nielsen was not an example of the strategy ladt year. He was never passed over in the draft. He was just a late 96 birthdate.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Hunter has done this in the OHL as well when he used a second round pick on 19 year old Alex Broadhurst.

 

[RyanOhReally]

Very interesting article. Thanks for finding it. One error in the article: Andrew Nielsen was not an example of the strategy ladt year. He was never passed over in the draft. He was just a late 96 birthdate.

I interpreted it in how Nielsen was a noted late bloomer, coming up from AAA to play major junior as an undrafted signing to getting major minutes and playing very well by the end of it. That was all within a year. Leafs weighted that and him very highly.

It's a great article.

 

[Field of Dreams]

Was initially unhappy during the draft, but seeing the logic behind our choices makes me more comfortable.
By no means should we (or any team) should be writing off the draft as a success until above average results emerge from the picks.
My only issue currently was that some picks were huge reaches, and it would have been wiser to trade down.

 

[sda]

Was initially unhappy during the draft, but seeing the logic behind our choices makes me more comfortable.
By no means should we (or any team) should be writing off the draft as a success until above average results emerge from the picks.
My only issue currently was that some picks were huge reaches, and it would have been wiser to trade down.

The scout's make a list and follow it. who cares about age or some media ranking. we revamped the entire scouting so hopefully they know what the are doing

 

[RoadWarrior]

Was initially unhappy during the draft, but seeing the logic behind our choices makes me more comfortable.
By no means should we (or any team) should be writing off the draft as a success until above average results emerge from the picks.
My only issue currently was that some picks were huge reaches, and it would have been wiser to trade down.

They were talking with St.Louis prior to the 31st pick but maybe they couldn't agree on a trade to move down. Aside from a handful of players the CHL had already been mined out at that point. Laberge being the best of the rest.

 

[Field of Dreams]

The scout's make a list and follow it. who cares about age or some media ranking. we revamped the entire scouting so hopefully they know what the are doing

If you feel that a player can be selected later, and the risk is worthwhile, you optimize your returns by trading down.

 

[Kurtz]

Yep. Some fans had the wrong idea on draft day. They thought that we had a reversal of strategy of last year. Some thought that because we went heavy on small guys last year, we went into this year specifically with a strategy to draft big guys this year (which is terrible logic and the reason they're not in management or analytics) to "round out" our farm teams.

Like I posted on draft day, our team found one market inefficiency last year and attacked it. This year that inefficiency was gone, but they found and attacked a new one. The current management is the antithesis of Burke's mo of drafting big and gritty every time up to bat (other than in the top 10, to his credit).

 

[Menzinger]

Yep. Some fans had the wrong idea on draft day. They thought that we had a reversal of strategy of last year. Some thought that because we went heavy on small guys last year, we went into this year specifically with a strategy to draft big guys this year (which is terrible logic and the reason they're not in management or analytics) to "round out" our farm teams.

Like I posted on draft day, our team found one market inefficiency last year and attacked it. This year that inefficiency was gone, but they found and attacked a new one. The current management is the antithesis of Burke's mo of drafting big and gritty every time up to bat (other than in the top 10, to his credit).

Yep it's about innovation.

Lots of teams have good stats departments now - so even teams that are behind will catch up eventually. It's now up to teams to find new ways to exploit the draft to get NHLers. Hopefully it works for the Leafs.

 

[sda]

If you feel that a player can be selected later, and the risk is worthwhile, you optimize your returns by trading down.

You take the player highest on your list regardless of what anybody else thinks. trying to guess what other teams are thinking will not work. you have to trust your own scout's or they should be fired

 

[deletethis]

I'll re-post the list of draftees not taken in their first year of eligibility from the 2011 draft or more recent drafts who have already played significant NHL minutes:

Viktor Arvidsson
Klas Dahlbeck
Andy Andreoff
Andrew Shaw
Josh Manson
Iiro Pakarinen
Jyrki Jokipakka
Alexey Marchenko
Ondrej Palat
Colin Miller
Ben Hutton
Cedric Paquette
Erik Gustafsson
Frederik Andersen
Colton Parayko
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jordan Martinook
Andrew Copp
Sven Andrighetto
Mattias Janmark-Nylen

Seems like it's becoming a legit way to find players, sometimes very good players.

 

[ChrisCall]

The first thing i see in that picture is Dubas, with some kind of iPAD or similar device, with a big chart on the screen of blue and red squares. Analytics ... mega-time. I can't even begin to fathom just how deep their numbers go on all these players.

 

[Mitchy]

Yep. Some fans had the wrong idea on draft day. They thought that we had a reversal of strategy of last year. Some thought that because we went heavy on small guys last year, we went into this year specifically with a strategy to draft big guys this year (which is terrible logic and the reason they're not in management or analytics) to "round out" our farm teams.

Like I posted on draft day, our team found one market inefficiency last year and attacked it. This year that inefficiency was gone, but they found and attacked a new one. The current management is the antithesis of Burke's mo of drafting big and gritty every time up to bat (other than in the top 10, to his credit).

Well said. Completely agree.

 

[Le Cobra]

Kyle Dubas is turning into something of a Billy Beane of the NHL. Just saw Moneyball yesterday and I couldn't be MORE HYPED. GO LEAFS GOOOOO

 

[BEERnSOUP]

Yep. Some fans had the wrong idea on draft day. They thought that we had a reversal of strategy of last year. Some thought that because we went heavy on small guys last year, we went into this year specifically with a strategy to draft big guys this year (which is terrible logic and the reason they're not in management or analytics) to "round out" our farm teams.

Like I posted on draft day, our team found one market inefficiency last year and attacked it. This year that inefficiency was gone, but they found and attacked a new one. The current management is the antithesis of Burke's mo of drafting big and gritty every time up to bat (other than in the top 10, to his credit).

I don't think that inefficiency was gone... Abramov went 65, and he's far better than Bracco IMO, Debrincat was still available with 31. If high skill regardless of size had been our strategy this year I would quite easily take the crop of guys available to us this year over who we took last year.

They did obviously explore what they feel is a different inefficiency. I do like some of our picks. I just think they reached too far on the Korshkov pick

 

[Kurtz]

I don't think that inefficiency was gone... Abramov went 65, and he's far better than Bracco IMO, Debrincat was still available with 31. If high skill regardless of size had been our strategy this year I would quite easily take the crop of guys available to us this year over who we took last year.

They did obviously explore what they feel is a different inefficiency. I do like some of our picks. I just think they reached too far on the Korshkov pick

You're right, perhaps not completely gone, but diminished, as more teams caught on. For instance, Debrincat at 5'7 went early 2nd round this year, and we had 2 more guys at 5'7 and even 5'6...

Meanwhile, no one below 5'8 was even taken in the draft last year. Only one 5'7 guy was taken the year before that, and that was a 7th round flyer.

As for Abramov, he's 5'9 175, which is respectable...they probably just weren't impressed with him.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Kyle Dubas moneypuck movie needs to happen

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Kyle Dubas moneypuck movie needs to happen

Hopefully it'll be better than moneyball. As a huge baseball nerd it was thoroughly disappointing. I would have preferred a documentary.

 

[Smif]

The first thing i see in that picture is Dubas, with some kind of iPAD or similar device, with a big chart on the screen of blue and red squares. Analytics ... mega-time. I can't even begin to fathom just how deep their numbers go on all these players.

You can't see the screen in the pic .............

 

[Semantics]

Yep it's about innovation.

Lots of teams have good stats departments now - so even teams that are behind will catch up eventually. It's now up to teams to find new ways to exploit the draft to get NHLers. Hopefully it works for the Leafs.

People are also forgetting that the Leafs analytics department is much further along now than a year ago. Last year was year one. This is continually evolving work - what they had last year may have been primitive compared to what they have now.

What we are seeing isn't a change in strategy, it's progress, as well as adaptation to what other teams are doing like you said.

It's also interesting to recall that last year they fired all their scouts right at the end of the season. Before the pre-draft meetings, so I'm guessing they didn't really use those scouts' work at all. So they only had four amateur scouts left. It was all Hunter, Bergman, and the analytics team. This year there are a few more voices, but undoubtedly much more integrated with the analytics. The role of the scouts now is probably to do stuff like scope out the size of the players' moms.

 

[MuchoMacho]

I'll re-post the list of draftees not taken in their first year of eligibility from the 2011 draft or more recent drafts who have already played significant NHL minutes:

Viktor Arvidsson
Klas Dahlbeck
Andy Andreoff
Andrew Shaw
Josh Manson
Iiro Pakarinen
Jyrki Jokipakka
Alexey Marchenko
Ondrej Palat
Colin Miller
Ben Hutton
Cedric Paquette
Erik Gustafsson
Frederik Andersen
Colton Parayko
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jordan Martinook
Andrew Copp
Sven Andrighetto
Mattias Janmark-Nylen

Seems like it's becoming a legit way to find players, sometimes very good players.

Frederik Andersen shouldn't be on that list. He was drafted by Carolina and then couldn't come to terms with them so he re-entered the draft. Not the same as not being drafted at all.

 

[Leafsman]

Yep. Some fans had the wrong idea on draft day. They thought that we had a reversal of strategy of last year. Some thought that because we went heavy on small guys last year, we went into this year specifically with a strategy to draft big guys this year (which is terrible logic and the reason they're not in management or analytics) to "round out" our farm teams.

Like I posted on draft day, our team found one market inefficiency last year and attacked it. This year that inefficiency was gone, but they found and attacked a new one. The current management is the antithesis of Burke's mo of drafting big and gritty every time up to bat (other than in the top 10, to his credit).

Great post!

Everytime I read a post that has someone complaining because they wanted this team to draft the same way as last year. I think to myself - "what is this person talking about? They did!"

Outside the 1st round, there is an average probability of a successful pick of likely <30%. The Leafs are looking at ways to improve their odds

 

[lebdafor norris]

Kyle Dubas is turning into something of a Billy Beane of the NHL. Just saw Moneyball yesterday and I couldn't be MORE HYPED. GO LEAFS GOOOOO

Hopefully he doesn't evolve into the 2014 version of Billy Beane that traded last year's MVP for the mascot of the Red Bull energy drink and Kendall Graveman.

 

[bluumax]

Cherry complained about how Hunter had a such a great drafting record in the O and how he picked so few players from it this draft.

This logic confuses me, look at the system Hunter built in London, now instead of a relatively small talent pool to choose from he has the entire world. With guys like Dubas backing him up.

I genuinely think Mark Hunters team will be the reason we win a cup in the next decade.