Jimmy Firecracker
Fire Sheldon.
With most of the free agency movement likely over, it's a clear consensus that the Leafs got better offensively, but worse defensively. In fact, based on Dom Luszczyszyn's model the Leafs have gotten a collective 14 goals worse after these departures and additions. Now of course there's still a lot of offseason left and more moves could be made, but I doubt whatever Tree has up his sleeve will drastically shift that number. Now from the jump you might think the Leafs have clearly gotten worse because of this, but my contention is that the lost defensive strength will not hurt as much as some may perceive.
What's been this team's identity for the past three seasons? The offence running through Five Guys, supported by a cast of players who are defensively responsible, intelligent, and safe. This approach has led to a lot of regular season success, but when it comes time to the NHL's second season, the lack of offensive depth becomes a glaring issue, and despite the defensive strength of the team they've lacked the grit and physicality to truly wear down our opponents. Goaltending has also played into our failures, as our lack of offence fails to beat great goaltending, our goalies have been outdueled, unable to rise to the occasion and really put the finishing touch to strong defence.
It's no surprise that in the one year since the bubble that the Leafs somewhat addressed their lack of offence and toughness that they finally won a round, with the additions of Knies and O'Reilly able to provide much needed secondary offence, guys like Acciari, McCabe, and Schenn bringing hard hitting physicality to the lineup, and Samsonov providing good goaltending and clutch saves when the team needed him most (something Andersen and Campbell could never do here in the playoffs). It ultimately still wasn't enough as O'Reilly's age began to show, Knies and Samsonov were knocked out of the playoffs, and the Core Five failed to produce against the Panthers. Granted, Bobrovsky played out of his mind (and continued to as he victimized Carolina more than us) but with the series as close as it was, one more goal here or there easily could've been the difference between a Leafs Conference Finals appearance and the early exit they did suffer.
After three seasons of this formula, it's clear that relying on five players to carry the offensive load isn't working. I know they're all paid like they should be able to carry this team offensively, but it's just not feasible. You look at the recent Cup winning teams in Tampa, Colorado, and Vegas, yes they were lead offensively by their best players, but they also got offensive contributions from middle of the lineup guys like Toews, Lehkonen, Kadri, Shattenkirk, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, Coleman, Theodore, Barbashev, Stephenson, and Karlsson. Adding legitimate scoring options in Bertuzzi, Domi, and Klingberg gives the Leafs a much more potent lineup that should be capable of getting that extra goal or two we've desperately needed.
I also think the lost defensive play is overstated (not just from Dom, from everywhere). For starters, O'Reilly, Acciari, Schenn, and McCabe were not here for most of the season and the Leafs were a strong defensive team even before them. If anything they got worse in the regular season when these guys came aboard as Sheldon couldn't settle on a lineup and the new additions caused the lineup to have compatibility issues. Of the guys who were here all season and have now departed, only Kerfoot and Holl were strong defensively, while Bunting was average to mediocre at that aspect. To give credit to Sheldon, despite his glaring flaws, he has gotten this team to buy into a solid defensive system, with the Leafs ranking 10th in total goals against, 9th in goals against per game, and 9th in PK% since 2020-21. Having a full season of McCabe and Lafferty (who killed penalties in Chicago and was a shorthanded threat) should help mitigate the lost penalty killers, and Knies already showed good defensive instincts in the playoffs, indicating that he could be a non-liability out on the ice. Plus, the Leafs still have an MVP Centre, a Selke nominated winger, and one of the best defensive defenseman in the league on the team still, and all three will still see a lot of ice time. Not to mention we've still got a solid stable of safe defensively responsible players on the roster in Kampf, Jarnkrok, Giordano, and Liljegren.
More than anything, good defence requires a strong system from the coaches and strong effort from the players. We've already got one half of that down. All it will take to mitigate the incoming defensive deficiencies of the new guys is sheltering on the part of the coach (like stapling Brodie or McCabe to Klingberg) and the will of the players to actually learn and play in the system. We've seen Bertuzzi show a willingness to lay it on the line to prevent a goal, and Domi has expressed wanting Toronto to be his long term home so his willingness to learn and improve to be part of this franchise should be high. If these guys can be not complete liabilities on the ice while providing solid offence, I think their weaknesses won't be so pronounced and the lost defence won't be all that missed.
What's been this team's identity for the past three seasons? The offence running through Five Guys, supported by a cast of players who are defensively responsible, intelligent, and safe. This approach has led to a lot of regular season success, but when it comes time to the NHL's second season, the lack of offensive depth becomes a glaring issue, and despite the defensive strength of the team they've lacked the grit and physicality to truly wear down our opponents. Goaltending has also played into our failures, as our lack of offence fails to beat great goaltending, our goalies have been outdueled, unable to rise to the occasion and really put the finishing touch to strong defence.
It's no surprise that in the one year since the bubble that the Leafs somewhat addressed their lack of offence and toughness that they finally won a round, with the additions of Knies and O'Reilly able to provide much needed secondary offence, guys like Acciari, McCabe, and Schenn bringing hard hitting physicality to the lineup, and Samsonov providing good goaltending and clutch saves when the team needed him most (something Andersen and Campbell could never do here in the playoffs). It ultimately still wasn't enough as O'Reilly's age began to show, Knies and Samsonov were knocked out of the playoffs, and the Core Five failed to produce against the Panthers. Granted, Bobrovsky played out of his mind (and continued to as he victimized Carolina more than us) but with the series as close as it was, one more goal here or there easily could've been the difference between a Leafs Conference Finals appearance and the early exit they did suffer.
After three seasons of this formula, it's clear that relying on five players to carry the offensive load isn't working. I know they're all paid like they should be able to carry this team offensively, but it's just not feasible. You look at the recent Cup winning teams in Tampa, Colorado, and Vegas, yes they were lead offensively by their best players, but they also got offensive contributions from middle of the lineup guys like Toews, Lehkonen, Kadri, Shattenkirk, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, Coleman, Theodore, Barbashev, Stephenson, and Karlsson. Adding legitimate scoring options in Bertuzzi, Domi, and Klingberg gives the Leafs a much more potent lineup that should be capable of getting that extra goal or two we've desperately needed.
I also think the lost defensive play is overstated (not just from Dom, from everywhere). For starters, O'Reilly, Acciari, Schenn, and McCabe were not here for most of the season and the Leafs were a strong defensive team even before them. If anything they got worse in the regular season when these guys came aboard as Sheldon couldn't settle on a lineup and the new additions caused the lineup to have compatibility issues. Of the guys who were here all season and have now departed, only Kerfoot and Holl were strong defensively, while Bunting was average to mediocre at that aspect. To give credit to Sheldon, despite his glaring flaws, he has gotten this team to buy into a solid defensive system, with the Leafs ranking 10th in total goals against, 9th in goals against per game, and 9th in PK% since 2020-21. Having a full season of McCabe and Lafferty (who killed penalties in Chicago and was a shorthanded threat) should help mitigate the lost penalty killers, and Knies already showed good defensive instincts in the playoffs, indicating that he could be a non-liability out on the ice. Plus, the Leafs still have an MVP Centre, a Selke nominated winger, and one of the best defensive defenseman in the league on the team still, and all three will still see a lot of ice time. Not to mention we've still got a solid stable of safe defensively responsible players on the roster in Kampf, Jarnkrok, Giordano, and Liljegren.
More than anything, good defence requires a strong system from the coaches and strong effort from the players. We've already got one half of that down. All it will take to mitigate the incoming defensive deficiencies of the new guys is sheltering on the part of the coach (like stapling Brodie or McCabe to Klingberg) and the will of the players to actually learn and play in the system. We've seen Bertuzzi show a willingness to lay it on the line to prevent a goal, and Domi has expressed wanting Toronto to be his long term home so his willingness to learn and improve to be part of this franchise should be high. If these guys can be not complete liabilities on the ice while providing solid offence, I think their weaknesses won't be so pronounced and the lost defence won't be all that missed.
