How many points could McDavid possibly score in a season?

[daver]

I could see him putting up a season that is up there with the best of the non-Big Four. Malkin hit that in 11/12, at least t in terms of his PPG vs. the field. Crosby was heading towards that in 10/11 and 12/13. Jagr in 98/99 and Yzerman in 88/89 are the two best offensive seasons before that.

I think people are putting too much stock in his low PP points, and in how much more he could develop. I think players are coming into the league a lot more NHL ready than in the past, starting with Crosby. He was on Wayne and Mario's tier as a prospect but did not reach their levels once hitting the NHL. I think players like McDavid, Matthews and Laine have pretty much jumped into their primes from the get go.

Numbers-wise, 120-125 points last year would have hit the "best of the non-Big Four" tier.

 

[TeeTee]

I think he could top out as a 50G and 80A for a 130 point guy in his penultimate NHL season. Scoring has to stay up and maybe even go up a tick more and the PP for Edmonton has to get better but it can literally only go up from where it's at now.

I dont think you know what penultimate means.

 

[Noldo]

I think people are putting too much stock in his low PP points, and in how much more he could develop. I think players are coming into the league a lot more NHL ready than in the past, starting with Crosby. He was on Wayne and Mario's tier as a prospect but did not reach their levels once hitting the NHL. I think players like McDavid, Matthews and Laine have pretty much jumped into their primes from the get go.

The top power play producers have had around 40 PP points lately so that would not be outlandish achievement from McDavid. After all, he is clearly among the top offensive players in the League. Reaching that level, and maintaining current ES production would result in some 120 points and “only” a modest further increase would be need to reach 130-140 points.

The power play is also area where McDavid presumably can increase his production even if his own play does not increase as much, merely by benefitting from better PP structure and supporting cast. Unless we assume that his skillset is ill suited for PP.

 

[Brunomics]

exactly 182 points. No more, no less.

 

[StoneHands]

I know he's only 21 but the other "generational" superstars that have come into the league recently have been topping out in point production at around that same age. Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin all had their highest point totals by the time they were 22 which McDavid will be this season. I think he could reach 120 with an outside shot at 130 but each year he doesn't hit those numbers the likelihood of a career year diminishes.

It's typically the less hyped superstars that come into the league that come into the league and are eased in a bit that top out in their mid 20s.

 

[daver]

The top power play producers have had around 40 PP points lately so that would not be outlandish achievement from McDavid. After all, he is clearly among the top offensive players in the League. Reaching that level, and maintaining current ES production would result in some 120 points and “only” a modest further increase would be need to reach 130-140 points.

The power play is also area where McDavid presumably can increase his production even if his own play does not increase as much, merely by benefitting from better PP structure and supporting cast. Unless we assume that his skillset is ill suited for PP.

Here is what we know.

-McDavid produced at about the same pace, relative to the league, in 16/17 as he did in 17/18 while his team's PP clicked at a 5th best rate. He did not lap the field that year as you are expecting he would if only the PP was better. The PP was better in 16/17.

-McDavid was hovering in 5th to 10th place in the Art Ross race, mostly attributable to his PP points being way down, for most of the season then turned it up significantly during a time when W's and L's were not as important to his team.

-There are no good examples of other high end talents like McDavid whose production was affected that much by the success, or lack of thereof, of the team's PP. Crosby, Malkin, OV,and Jagr, all produced regardless.

If the Oilers PP was better last year, it changes the dynamics of the Oilers games. Do they play McDavid so much if they are winning more than trying to always to play catchup? It is not as cut and dried as adding simply adding PP points to McDavid's ES point totals. Nor writing off their bad PP to everybody else but McDavid, who should have the most influence as a player on it's success or failure.

 

[ShootIt]

0-120 points is my conservative range.

 

[daver]

I know he's only 21 but the other "generational" superstars that have come into the league recently have been topping out in point production at around that same age. Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin all had their highest point totals by the time they were 22 which McDavid will be this season. I think he could reach 120 with an outside shot at 130 but each year he doesn't hit those numbers the likelihood of a career year diminishes.

It's typically the less hyped superstars that come into the league that come into the league and are eased in a bit that top out in their mid 20s.

I agree. More likely McDavid shows a somewhat marginal increase in his offensive totals vs. his all around game or his playoff performances. If he gets used like Crosby, he won't necessarily be used strictly as an offensive weapon.

 

[RibFrabcus]

I dont think you know what penultimate means.

Everyone knows players peak in their second to last season, duh

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

It’s a trade off, when the team gets better he won’t need to play as many minutes.

 

[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

I know he's only 21 but the other "generational" superstars that have come into the league recently have been topping out in point production at around that same age. Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin all had their highest point totals by the time they were 22 which McDavid will be this season. I think he could reach 120 with an outside shot at 130 but each year he doesn't hit those numbers the likelihood of a career year diminishes.

It's typically the less hyped superstars that come into the league that come into the league and are eased in a bit that top out in their mid 20s.

He should be entering his decade of grace very soon by your projections.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I dont think you know what penultimate means.

Fixed. Meant pinnacle.

 

[Butch 19]

175

 

[Beerfish]

No more than he had this past year. The team still does not have a puck retrieval dman ready to play. He has a good potential winger in rnh but nothing on the other side.

 

[oXo Cube]

I think 125-130 range realistically.

Essentially think last year but give the Oilers a competent PP coach.

 

[Pi]

If he plays like 21-22 minutes and 2 minutes of every PP he possibly can, you would probably be looking at around 130-140 IMO.

We have not seen the best of McDavid yet. It's still three years away IMO and he's already the best player in the league...what a guy.

 

[syz]

I know he's only 21 but the other "generational" superstars that have come into the league recently have been topping out in point production at around that same age. Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin all had their highest point totals by the time they were 22 which McDavid will be this season. I think he could reach 120 with an outside shot at 130 but each year he doesn't hit those numbers the likelihood of a career year diminishes.

It's typically the less hyped superstars that come into the league that come into the league and are eased in a bit that top out in their mid 20s.

Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin's production curve is probably a bit strange just by virtue of how different officiating was when they first came into the league. They all entered the league at an obstruction-free time that has gradually degraded more and more as the years have gone on. If they were playing healthy seasons (unfortunately less common for Crosby and Malkin) in a mid/late 2000s style game, they'd probably be putting up the same or better numbers as their first few years, tbh.

Sometimes I wonder what McDavid would've done between like 05-08. They probably would have had to just stop calling penalties at some point or his team would be on the PP for half the game.

 

[Coffey]

I dont think you know what penultimate means.

Maybe he does and McDavid would have the best 2nd last season of any player ever.

 

[StoneHands]

He should be entering his decade of grace very soon by your projections.

For sure. I think he's got many 100 point seasons ahead of him but when looking at career years, I think his best bet to top 110 or 120 will be in the next 2, maybe 3 years.

 

[Drytoast]

I think if everything clicked for one magical year, this kid could hit 130-140.

 

[Tavares to Marner]

whatever Matthews can


nah but seriously I think 120 with a 35ish goal season to 40

 

[theoriginalBCF]

I think 140+ is prob right with maybe a 150-160 sprinkled in... just because the game is headed this way

 

[Varan]

I dont think you know what penultimate means.

LMAO

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

It's never as much as you think. When Crosby scored 120 at age 19 people were saying 160-180 was possible. 120 ended up being his high. Realistically I see about 120 at Mcdavid's high as well.

 

[Sheppy]

120-125