Speculation: How many picks can we acquire?

[Funk21]

Okay it seems like everybody and their brother is getting a PTO with the TML, I'm actually happy about that because it likely means that the kids are going to finally spend some time developing rather than being thrown into the big show when they shouldn't be. Players like Glencross and Boyes on one year, million dollar contracts are likely to return, seconds or thirds at the trade deadline if the have a good season with the buds. Not to mention all of the other scrubs we have on the team.

My questions to the fan base is two fold:

Who do you think we can trade and what do you believe we can get for them?

How many picks do we end up after the trade deadline is past?

Goooooooooooo!

Click to read more...

 

[67Cup]

Not as many as we think right now is my guess. A number of the signings are "either/or" types. Either one of them will get enough playing time to increase their value as trade bait, or another. They have very little trade value right now. If they did, there would have been some competition to sign them as free agents. As far as I can tell, there was little or none for most of them, especially the PTO players. The hope is, therefore, that with playing time they will improve their trade value and/or contribute to the Leafs enough that they continue to want them. Not all of them will get the ice time or play well enough to do that. Here's a complete guess: three will do so.

Also not all the trades, whatever the number, will be for 2016 picks. It is probably better for the Leafs to spread out their selections. And teams may pay more if the acquisition costs them little or nothing for a season or two. The Winnik trade with Pittsburgh, where the more valuable asset is coming in 2016 rather than in 2015, might be an example.

 

[SprDaVE]

We're assuming Glencross and Boyes are offered a contract or want 1M for 1 year. Just because they are on PTO's, it doesn't mean they'll accept a fairly low offer, especially if they really play well in camp. Setoguchi might accept a fairly low deal though.

It also depends how competitive the Leafs are this season. If they are as bad as expected, then it's safe to assume we'll probably have a 3-4 top 90 picks coming in, with likely a couple later round picks mixed with some prospects coming back. We have a lot of short-term contract players that could interest a lot of teams. We also have some bigger names that could have value around the dead line if they have a strong year.

If the Leafs play better then expected, we likely won't sell as many assets. Maybe a couple assets sold off that can easily be replaced internally. I doubt we'll be 'buyers' though, so I wouldn't sweat too much.

 

[ACC1224]

We're assuming Glencross and Boyes are offered a contract or want 1M for 1 year. Just because they are on PTO's, it doesn't mean they'll accept a fairly low offer, especially if they really play well in camp. Setoguchi might accept a fairly low deal though.

It also depends how competitive the Leafs are this season. If they are as bad as expected, then it's safe to assume we'll probably have a 3-4 top 90 picks coming in, with likely a couple later round picks mixed with some prospects coming back. We have a lot of short-term contract players that could interest a lot of teams. We also have some bigger names that could have value around the dead line if they have a strong year.

If the Leafs play better then expected, we likely won't sell as many assets. Maybe a couple assets sold off that can easily be replaced internally. I doubt we'll be 'buyers' though, so I wouldn't sweat too much.

If that happens I'm sure they will catch the eye of some other Team and if the Leafs offer isn't substantial enough they will sign there.

 

[SprDaVE]

If that happens I'm sure they will catch the eye of some other Team and if the Leafs offer isn't substantial enough they will sign there.

Which is why I'm sure they decided on Toronto to go for a PTO. The Leafs have the most pre-season games (or at least tied) and the most exposure by a mile. It's a good way to get teams to watch you.

 

[Funk21]

Good points, but if we look at Raymond as an example a good number of players are willing to take a crappy one year, 1 million dollar contract to get something long term. Does it mean all these players on PTO will sign, no but if and only if the braintrust is going keep true to their word and season our kids then it could mean a great number of roster spots plus playing time. These are the type of acquisition at the trade deadline that can put a contender over the top!

 

[egd27]

Not as many as we think right now is my guess. A number of the signings are "either/or" types. Either one of them will get enough playing time to increase their value as trade bait, or another. They have very little trade value right now. If they did, there would have been some competition to sign them as free agents. As far as I can tell, there was little or none for most of them, especially the PTO players. The hope is, therefore, that with playing time they will improve their trade value and/or contribute to the Leafs enough that they continue to want them. Not all of them will get the ice time or play well enough to do that. Here's a complete guess: three will do so.

Also not all the trades, whatever the number, will be for 2016 picks. It is probably better for the Leafs to spread out their selections. And teams may pay more if the acquisition costs them little or nothing for a season or two. The Winnik trade with Pittsburgh, where the more valuable asset is coming in 2016 rather than in 2015, might be an example.

I agree.

I think some are oversimplifying this "sign and flip" strategy.

 

[deletethis]

There doesn't seem to be a limit to the number of picks a team can make in a draft but there's a limit to the players the organization can have under contract. It's still an awesome strategy to draft in bulk then cull out the weaker picks who don't progress post-draft by not signing them. I bet a couple of picks from this past draft aren't signed. Be prepared that the Leafs will reject draft choices they would have signed in years' past. Some may even be drafted or signed by other organizations. It'll just be a sign that the plan is working.

 

[WTFMAN99]

There doesn't seem to be a limit to the number of picks a team can make in a draft but there's a limit to the players the organization can have under contract. It's still an awesome strategy to draft in bulk then cull out the weaker picks who don't progress post-draft by not signing them. I bet a couple of picks from this past draft aren't signed. Be prepared that the Leafs will reject draft choices they would have signed in years' past. Some may even be drafted or signed by other organizations. It'll just be a sign that the plan is working.

Might also opt for more European or NCAA guys since you have longer with their rights.

 

[theIceWookie]

Okay it seems like everybody and their brother is getting a PTO with the TML, I'm actually happy about that because it likely means that the kids are going to finally spend some time developing rather than being thrown into the big show when they shouldn't be. Players like Glencross and Boyes on one year, million dollar contracts are likely to return, seconds or thirds at the trade deadline if the have a good season with the buds. Not to mention all of the other scrubs we have on the team.

My questions to the fan base is two fold:

Who do you think we can trade and what do you believe we can get for them?

How many picks do we end up after the trade deadline is past?

Goooooooooooo!

I think we need to be realistic about how many picks we can acquire. I think a lot of people are expecting a little too many picks.

Last year we acquired two 2015 picks and three 2016 picks by the deadlines using Winnik, Holzer, Franson, Santorelli. 5 picks over two years. Which is solid.

Now we have a bunch of players on one year deals, or expiring multi year deals, including Matthias, PAP, Spaling, Arcobello, Polak, Reimer, Brennan plus more than a few RFA's, and Gelncross, Boyes and Seto on PTO's.

We'll likely only sign one of the three PTO's, if any at this point. We're already pretty full up at forward and they lilkely are using these PTO's as a way to get contracts from other teams. So let's assume one of them signs.

Realistically the guys on expiring contracts will not all be traded. We still need to ice a team post-deadline and from the way managemet has run things so far, I see no reason to suggest that the way they want to do that is by throwing prospects into the mix that late in the season. So some guys will have to stick around. Some might even earn a contract renewal from their play, leadership and team game. Plus injuries or lower than expected play likely means that guys won't be as valauble as we hoped.

I think realistically by the time the deadline hits, we'll have 2-4 guys we can trade, similar to last deadline. Meaning I wouldn't expect much more than what we got in terms of picks from last year. So 5ish spread over multiple years?

 

[Atomos2]

I would like another first somehow. If we can manage to swing that kind of a trade without giving up something significant then that'd be sic.

 

[pheasant]

Might also opt for more European or NCAA guys since you have longer with their rights.

We could see some prospect depth moved for modest returns, also. Colborne for a 4th. Ashton and Broll moved for a conditional 6th. That kind of thing.

As for the OP question, almost every player on the roster could be traded. Last TDL we added like 4 or 5 picks. Remember some (6th for Olli Jokinen) didn't actually move hands because they were conditional.

So I would guess we add about the same number or more. Mostly 3rd and 5th rounders though, unless a "big" name like Reimer, Bozak, Kadri, Dion get dealt. My guess is say goodbye to:

Winnik (again)
Parenteau
GlenX (if signed)
Spalling
Arcobello
Beck
Polak (analytics experts HATE him!)*
Reimer

*not saying anyone actually hates him, just a joke about stupid online ads.

 

[Mess]

I agree.

I think some are oversimplifying this "sign and flip" strategy.

Agreed

Florida tried to trade Boyes last deadline with no success and so there is no guarantee that Leafs will both sign him and successfully trade him at the deadline either.

I think people forget these PTO player types are available to everyone still and have been all summer long as UFAs.

It be pretty bad of a GM to pass on players for free now and not sign them themselves for bargain contracts and then deal away draft picks to acquire them at the deadline. I sure hope my Leafs never get to a point where they are dumping draft picks at a trade deadline for players they simply could have signed themselves with a little more foresight in the first place.

 

[WTFMAN99]

We could see some prospect depth moved for modest returns, also. Colborne for a 4th. Ashton and Broll moved for a conditional 6th. That kind of thing.

As for the OP question, almost every player on the roster could be traded. Last TDL we added like 4 or 5 picks. Remember some (6th for Olli Jokinen) didn't actually move hands because they were conditional.

So I would guess we add about the same number or more. Mostly 3rd and 5th rounders though, unless a "big" name like Reimer, Bozak, Kadri, Dion get dealt. My guess is say goodbye to:

Winnik (again)
Parenteau
GlenX (if signed)
Spalling
Arcobello
Beck
Polak (analytics experts HATE him!)*
Reimer

*not saying anyone actually hates him, just a joke about stupid online ads.

Boyes if signed...and I think Winnik won't get moved until the following year.


Also guys under contract you touched upon like Bozak, Phaneuf etc

 

[Brock Radunske]

Judging but the PTOs, we could potentially be drafting half of the 3rd/4th rounds

I have a feeling Shanaplan is going to group mid-round picks to either move up and grab a bit more quality or potentially make a deal for a young project with potential.

Quantity this year
Quality next year

And for the love of God, we need to start taking some RHD with upside.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Boyes if signed...and I think Winnik won't get moved until the following year.


Also guys under contract you touched upon like Bozak, Phaneuf etc

Agreed.
Babcock is going to have a T-Rex-sized hard on for him.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Judging but the PTOs, we could potentially be drafting half of the 3rd/4th rounds

I have a feeling Shanaplan is going to group mid-round picks to either move up and grab a bit more quality or potentially make a deal for a young project with potential.

Quantity this year
Quality next year

And for the love of God, we need to start taking some RHD with upside.

Yeah bulk up the later picks for higher picks..I could see if it they really like someone.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Okay it seems like everybody and their brother is getting a PTO with the TML, I'm actually happy about that because it likely means that the kids are going to finally spend some time developing rather than being thrown into the big show when they shouldn't be. Players like Glencross and Boyes on one year, million dollar contracts are likely to return, seconds or thirds at the trade deadline if the have a good season with the buds. Not to mention all of the other scrubs we have on the team.

My questions to the fan base is two fold:

Who do you think we can trade and what do you believe we can get for them?

How many picks do we end up after the trade deadline is past?

Goooooooooooo!

Leafs haven't rushed prospects for quite a while.

The last prospect that was rushed was Luke Schenn which was back in 09.

The bigger problem for the Leafs is we haven't had enough quality prospects that were worthy of promoting to the NHL but that's changing.

Our prospect pool is better than I've ever seen it.

 

[New Liskeard]

What picks, and how many do the Leafs have in the upcoming 2016 draft? There will likely be some moved for picks, probably not as many as some think.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Judging but the PTOs, we could potentially be drafting half of the 3rd/4th rounds

I have a feeling Shanaplan is going to group mid-round picks to either move up and grab a bit more quality or potentially make a deal for a young project with potential.

Quantity this year
Quality next year

And for the love of God, we need to start taking some RHD with upside.

Panik (24), Beck (24), Marincin (23) were all brought in since the start of last season as projects who are too good for the AHL but have really found a role that cements them as NHL player (and have to go through waivers to be in the AHL).

Hopefully at least one of them puts it together and becomes a decent top 9 forward or top 5 Dman for us.

If not nothing lost.

 

[Mess]

Deep down I believe their is a agenda here by Shanny management in that it cost the Leafs a 3rd round pick compensation for both Babcock and Lou Lam additions.

Leafs are trying to generate additional picks in an effort to compensate for the loss of their own 3rd round picks that will be out going to pay that bill, which was the cost of assembling his management team.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

My questions to the fan base is two fold:

Who do you think we can trade and what do you believe we can get for them?

How many picks do we end up after the trade deadline is past?

Goooooooooooo!

Matthias: 2nd + potentially mid round pick if he has a great season. Comparables: Winnik + Glencross

Polak: 2nd. No great comparables from last two deadlines but Dmen are the # 1 piece teams covet at the deadline.

Spaling: 3rd. Comparables: Bergenheim + Fleischmann

Parenteau: 5th to 7th rounder. Comparable: Jokinen + Flynn

Reimer: 3rd rounder. Comparable Neuvirth

Arcobello: nothing

As far as Setoguchi, Glencross and Boyes. Lets see them make the team first.

 

[deletethis]

Polak (analytics experts HATE him!)*

This is the type of image I picture for that ad:

 

[WTFMAN99]

Matthias: 2nd + potentially mid round pick if he has a great season. Comparables: Winnik + Glencross

Polak: 2nd. No great comparables from last two deadlines but Dmen are the # 1 piece teams covet at the deadline.

Spaling: 3rd. Comparables: Bergenheim + Fleischmann

Parenteau: 5th to 7th rounder. Comparable: Jokinen + Flynn

Reimer: 3rd rounder. Comparable Neuvirth

Arcobello: nothing

As far as Setoguchi, Glencross and Boyes. Lets see them make the team first.

I think the 2nd would work if Matthias exceeds expectations, but otherwise he's good for a 3rd+

Polak - Huge range - He's a RD and can fit in anyones cap, has grit so he has that "playoff warrior" image. Hoping some team stupidly overpays with 1st but otherwise a 2nd round pick is pretty standard.

Others are spot on imo

Boyes and Glencross could vary wildly depending on production - Boyes if he's scored 20 goals could get us another 2nd, ditto Glencross or they could be 3-7th range, no way to tell. They will be our box of chocolates this year if signed.

 

[Menzinger]

If all goes well, i can see 3-7 top 90 picks for 2016 and 2017 drafts. Tge Leafs have a lot of assets that can be moved.