How many of these records does Ovechkin break by the time he retires?

[filinski77]

Am currently bored in class, so here's a poll

1) All time goals: Gretzky (894), Ovi is #17 currently with 611
2) Powerplay goals: Andreychuk (274), Ovi is #10 currently with 230
3) Game winning goals: Jagr (135), Ovi is #8 currently with 102
4) Shots: Bourque (6,209), Ovi is #8 currently with 4,915
5) Adjusted goals: Howe (925), Ovi is #4 currently with 752

Click to read more...

 

[AngelDuck]

PP goals for sure, shots most likely. game winning goals maybe. All time goals no way in hell. Not sure about adjusted goals

 

[trick9]

All but goals.

Lockouts took that away from him.

 

[filinski77]

PP goals for sure, shots most likely. game winning goals maybe. All time goals no way in hell. Not sure about adjusted goals

He would need 173 more adjusted goals to break the record. Last year he had 50 adjusted goals (compared to the 49 actual), so if league scoring stays fairly consistent with last year, then it would be pretty even, and I could see him definitely scoring 160-180 more actual goals.

I always wondered what the significance would be if he held the record for adjusted goals.

 

[DRW204]

How are adjusted goals calculated exactly? what's the formula? I am assuming it takes into account the league-wide goal scoring environment at the time and either pads or deducts the value of 1 Ovechkin goal? Id think it'd be tough for him to surpass Howe but no clue w/o knowing the calculation.

I think power play goals are a lock. 15 power play goals a year for the remained of his contract (3 years) he will surpass it.
Shots and GWG will be a stretch if he only plays out his current contract. I think if he plays out 4 years he will achieve both.
Goals i think there's no chance.... he missed 116 games from the 2 lock outs combined and probably score 70-75(+?) additional goals during that missed time, even then it might be a stretch. it depends how long he plays ultimately though...

 

[bobholly39]

I voted all.

Obviously your "adjusted goals" - there's no consensus method of adjusting that. Each method has pros and cons - but going with those numbers it's an easy yes.

Obviously the goal is the one that's most far fetched based on his pace - but i've always maintained that i think he has it in him, and i still do. But it'll take a lot of consistency and him playing late into his 30s, so we'll see.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

All except goals. But it doesn't matter, he is already the GOAT goal scorer.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

that year and a half really hurts, but alas what can you do, hopefully he breaks them all.

 

[LT]

All but goals. He’ll need another 6-7 years to get there and I’d be a bit surprised if he stays that long.

 

[filinski77]

How are adjusted goals calculated exactly? what's the formula? I am assuming it takes into account the league-wide goal scoring environment at the time and either pads or deducts the value of 1 Ovechkin goal? Id think it'd be tough for him to surpass Howe but no clue w/o knowing the calculation.

I think power play goals are a lock. 15 power play goals a year for the remained of his contract (3 years) he will surpass it.
Shots and GWG will be a stretch if he only plays out his current contract. I think if he plays out 4 years he will achieve both.
Goals i think there's no chance.... he missed 116 games from the 2 lock outs combined and probably score 70-75(+?) additional goals during that missed time, even then it might be a stretch. it depends how long he plays ultimately though...

Yeah, the metrics take into account league wide scoring across the history of the NHL history I'm pretty sure, therefore 50 goals 5 years ago would be adjusted upwards since the average league scoring in that particular year would have been a lot lower than historical averages

 

[filinski77]

I voted all.

Obviously your "adjusted goals" - there's no consensus method of adjusting that. Each method has pros and cons - but going with those numbers it's an easy yes.

Obviously the goal is the one that's most far fetched based on his pace - but i've always maintained that i think he has it in him, and i still do. But it'll take a lot of consistency and him playing late into his 30s, so we'll see.

I used this: NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

I agree there are many ways to compute adjusted goals, I'm honestly unsure how much variation in results there actually is between various models however.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Good chance at the shots and PP goals records.
But he's already 33 and most people would expect a drop in shots and scoring over the next 3-4 years.

It's gonna be close unless he pulls a Jagr.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I used this: NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

I agree there are many ways to compute adjusted goals, I'm honestly unsure how much variation in results there actually is between various models however.

League wide scoring is a good baseline IMO but adjusting for powerplay opportunities is fair to some degree. Top players are impacted by that.

 

[tony d]

I went with Options 2,3,4

 

[StoneHands]

PP goals for sure, shots most likely. game winning goals maybe. All time goals no way in hell. Not sure about adjusted goals

I think he comes up a bit short on goals but I wouldn't say there's no way in hell. He's been incredibly healthy throughout his career so there's no reason to think he can't play until he's 40+.

33: 45
34: 40
35: 40
36: 35
37: 35
38: 30
39: 25
40: 25

The more I look at it, these numbers are fairly reasonable and would put him at 882. You can be your ass if that happens he'll be back for one more year to put home 13 more and claim the record. I can see him being the kind of guy that maybe wants to hang them up at 38-39 but sees that he's ~50-60 goals short of that record and decides to play another couple years. Who the hell wouldn't?

All but goals.

Lockouts took that away from him.

Yes and no. The lockouts took away what can can assume would be around 60 goals but at the same time the first lockout is also the reason he broke into the league scoring 50+ out of the gate. If there was no lockout in '04-'05 he would have come into a league where the average game saw 5.1-5.2 goals per game instead of 6.1-6.2 goals per game. He missed out on 100+ games but also got the advantage of coming into the NHL at a time when scoring was as high as the mid 90's. Regardless the scoring was still lower than Gretzky's peak.

 

[DRW204]

I think he comes up a bit short on goals but I wouldn't say there's no way in hell. He's been incredibly healthy throughout his career so there's no reason to think he can't play until he's 40+.

33: 45
34: 40
35: 40
36: 35
37: 35
38: 30
39: 25
40: 25

The more I look at it, these numbers are fairly reasonable and would put him at 882. You can be your ass if that happens he'll be back for one more year to put home 13 more and claim the record. I can see him being the kind of guy that maybe wants to hang them up at 38-39 but sees that he's ~50-60 goals short of that record and decides to play another couple years. Who the hell wouldn't?


Yes and no. The lockout took away what can can assume would be around 60 goals but at the same time the lockout is also the reason he broke into the league scoring 50+ out of the gate. If there was no lockout in '04-'05 he would have come into a league where the average game saw 5.1-5.2 goals per game instead of 6.1-6.2 goals per game. He missed out on 100+ games but also got the advantage of coming into the NHL at a time when scoring was as high as the mid 90's. Regardless the scoring was still lower than Gretzky's peak.

regardless, the absence of 116 games due to lock outs impact his cumulative goal counts. unless you mean the lockout from 04-05 is the reason his goal totals is what it is early on in his career

 

[jetsforever]

Powerplay goals is the most likely
Does "adjusted goals" even count as a real stat?

 

[filinski77]

Powerplay goals is the most likely
Does "adjusted goals" even count as a real stat?

Not really, it's just interesting considering the significant changes in scoring rates around the league

 

[StoneHands]

regardless, the absence of 116 games due to lock outs impact his cumulative goal counts. unless you mean the lockout from 04-05 is the reason his goal totals is what it is early on in his career

My point was that the rule changes during the lockout are the main reason why goal scoring sky rocketed after the lockout. The year before the lockout 41 goals was enough to win the Rocket. The year after the lockout it took 56 goals and 5 players scored over 50 goals. Goal scoring league wide went up an entire goal per game which is huge. Of course he lost more goals from the missed games than the amount he gained by getting the benefit of stepping into the NHL in a high scoring era but there are two sides to the story when we consider how the lockout affected his numbers.

 

[koyvoo]

Adjusted goals is not an official recognized record

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

283 more goals to go...

If he were to somehow average 50 per season over the next three years (a tall order in itself) then he's got a real chance to break it. It would leave him with 133 more to go, about four more years of 30 goals per.

 

[JoVel]

Being #1 in "adjusted goals" is not exactly a record.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Adjusted goals is more indicative than actual goals.

Comparing actual goals, points, PPG, or GPG across eras is massively unfair to any player who didn't play in the high scoring era (1972 ish - 1995 ish) and inequitably rewards players from the high scoring era for things that were utterly outside their control.

In this regard, many of these records are arbitrary - the all time goals leader being one of them. Gordie Howe, not Wayne Gretzky, scored the most goals relative to his cross-generational peers.

 

[The Macho King]

Adjusted goals aren't a thing.

 

[um]

It would be great if he played in Washington until age 42/43, if thats the case I think he breaks all of these records.

Although I fear he will go home after this contract to raise his family in Russia.