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Speculation: How many ES points will Galchenyuk score this year?

How many ES points will Galchenyuk score this year?

  • 15-20

  • 21-25

  • 26-30

  • 31-35

  • 36-40

  • 41-45

  • 46-50

  • 51-55

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BlindWillyMcHurt

BlindWillyMcHurt

ti kallisti
May 31, 2004
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Peat said:
Kinda stating the obvious, but that sort of points pace is pretty mutually incompatible with sticking the season.
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I'm saying if he isn't injured, traded, demoted or scratched he should have around 21-25 ES points. Maybe he makes up the rest on the powerplay (his supposed trump card) to bring him up to around 40-50 total points, maybe not.

Why, exactly, should I be bullish about this guy? Particularly at ES?

EDIT: I see what you mean. Long day.
 
Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
81,300
79,282
Redmond, WA
BlindWillyMcHurt said:
I... what?

I'm saying if he isn't injured, traded, demoted or scratched he should have around 21-25 ES points. Maybe he makes up the rest on the powerplay (his supposed trump card) to bring him up to around 40-50 total points, maybe not.

Why, exactly, should I be bullish about this guy? Particularly at ES?
Click to expand...

Because he has produced at a top-6 level over his career at ES?



I honestly don't get the Galchenyuk bashing. I can get people complaining that they traded Kessel for a dog with the same fleas, but not complaining about his production. He's a guy that has had more seasons putting up a top-6 pace at ES (I'd say more than 30 ES points) than seasons of producing less than that.
 
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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
81,300
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Redmond, WA
I don't even think Galchenyuk will bring the "same value" as what Kessel brought, I do think he'll end up bringing less. But that's why he makes $4.9 million and not $8 million like Kessel. I think he'll probably bring better defense and more effort than Kessel, but will only provide around 50-60 points. That should be the expectation for him.
 
Dipsy Doodle

Dipsy Doodle

Rent A Barn
May 28, 2006
76,562
21,101
pixiesfanyo said:
Not sure how that effects what I said?
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We're trying to evaluate these guys based on their ES production, I assume. Galchenyuk's ES totals the last 2 years on the wing aren't anything to crow about. They're pretty abysmal, actually.

Empoleon8771 said:
And if you pretend he only played center those seasons and take them out entirely, he's still at 30 ES points per 82 games. Then the rest of the post still applies, but with a 30 point pace instead of a 33 point pace.
Click to expand...

Yep, the numbers take a slight dip.

Yes, playing for 2 teams that were bottom-3 in the NHL in offense. So unless Malkin turns into Drouin and the team starts scoring a goal fewer a game, Galchenyuk struggling on bad offensive teams doesn't matter.
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The question is how much Malkin will help him. Galchenyuk has scored 27 and 20 ES points the last 2 years, and I'm inclined to weight the last 2 years more heavily than career averages when I'm evaluating any player, but YMMV. A 10 point ES bump when going from a bad offensive situation to a good offensive situation seems pretty reasonable IMO.

He almost definitely won't, Sullivan loves running with duos and I fully expect Malkin-Galchenyuk to be one of the duos he sticks with. I seriously doubt he wi spend any more time in the bottom-6 next year than Guentzel.
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We'll see. Kessel played 637 minutes with Malkin and 493 without last year.

When I made that post, 21-25 and 26-30 had just as many votes as 31-35.
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Dipsy Doodle

Dipsy Doodle

Rent A Barn
May 28, 2006
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pixiesfanyo said:
While he is a clear step down from Kessel as an individual the argument is that he can bring the same value to the top six as a support winger.
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What are we basing "the same value as a support winger" on?

If we set the parameters now, we can avoid some ad hoc arguments later.
 

Peat

Registered User
Jun 14, 2016
29,464
25,314
BlindWillyMcHurt said:
I'm saying if he isn't injured, traded, demoted or scratched he should have around 21-25 ES points. Maybe he makes up the rest on the powerplay (his supposed trump card) to bring him up to around 40-50 total points, maybe not.

Why, exactly, should I be bullish about this guy? Particularly at ES?

EDIT: I see what you mean. Long day.
Click to expand...

Beyond what I meant - I'd say that forecasting 21-25 points for any pro hockey forward likely to spend a lot of time with Geno, particularly 4v4 and 3v3, is incredibly bearish. I don't have time to double check, but I'm pretty sure every forward we had last season bar Hags (and maybe McCann) tracked at about 35 ES points in their time with Geno last season, and that was in a bad season stripped of defensive support. Its almost impossible to not score points when spending 14-15 minutes a night with Geno.

I know you're not a fan, but it seems pretty heavy to say he'll fail abysmally compared to what ZAR or Hornqvist or Pearson did there - and I think talking a deficit of 10-15 points is just that.
 

Durden Tyler

Registered User
Dec 19, 2017
92
61
Empoleon8771 said:
I'm really confused for why so many people are voting so low on Galchenyuk. Have people looked at his career numbers before? Just to throw it out there:

1. Galchenyuk has a career average of 33 ES points per 82 games.
2. Galchenyuk has a best ES season of 40 ES points, and ES scoring is up over 13% from that season.
3. Galchenyuk has never played with a linemate on par with Crosby or Malkin.
4. Galchenyuk has never played on a team as offensively talented as the Penguins.

Outside of being overly jaded, I don't see a rationale for assuming that he's going to score so little at ES. As far as I can tell, the worst case scenario for him is 35 ES points and 50 total points, assuming he plays a full season. The only way he gets lower than that is if he's injured or the Penguins as a team fall off a cliff offensively. For Galchenyuk to only hit 20-30 ES points while healthy, the Penguins would have to be one of the worst offensive teams in hockey like the 18-19 Coyotes and the 17-18 Habs.
Click to expand...

I expect him to miss 5-10 game, you know the pens curse
 
Gurglesons

Gurglesons

Registered User
Dec 18, 2009
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San Diego, CA
last-train-tocool.blogspot.com
Soggy Biscuit said:
ES points? Because that's what Kessel puts up, on top of elite PP production.
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I don’t really care about Kessel’s PP production. I think that is easily replaceable. If the difference between Kessel and Galchenyuk is 10 ES points for and he isn’t giving away the puck every other shift I’m fine with it.
 
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ZeroPucksGiven

ZeroPucksGiven

Registered User
Feb 28, 2017
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pixiesfanyo said:
I don’t really care about Kessel’s PP production. I think that is easily replaceable. If the difference between Kessel and Galchenyuk is 10 ES points for and he isn’t giving away the puck every other shift I’m fine with it.
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I have a slightly different take

I think we'll be better ES with Chucky, but our PP is going to suffer without Kessel (see my other post in the PP thread)
 
Gurglesons

Gurglesons

Registered User
Dec 18, 2009
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last-train-tocool.blogspot.com
ZeroPucksGiven said:
I have a slightly different take

I think we'll be better ES with Chucky, but our PP is going to suffer without Kessel (see my other post in the PP thread)
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Our PP has never been an issue and Kessel was arguably the biggest issue on it last post season and this season.

We needed a shooter on there in place of Phil. Jake, Bjugstad and Chucky are all better shooters at this point. Especially since they aren’t alphas like Phil and will defer to Geno and Sid.
 
ZeroPucksGiven

ZeroPucksGiven

Registered User
Feb 28, 2017
6,338
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pixiesfanyo said:
Our PP has never been an issue and Kessel was arguably the biggest issue on it last post season and this season.

We needed a shooter on there in place of Phil. Jake, Bjugstad and Chucky are all better shooters at this point. Especially since they aren’t alphas like Phil and will defer to Geno and Sid.
Click to expand...

PP Rankings by season

2018 5th
2017 1
2016 3
2015 16
2014 10
2013 1
2012 2
2011 5

Looks like it was quite a huge issue in 2015
 
Vyruz Reaper

Vyruz Reaper

Registered User
Oct 4, 2005
1,843
66
Sunny SoCal
Empoleon8771 said:
Because he has produced at a top-6 level over his career at ES?



I honestly don't get the Galchenyuk bashing. I can get people complaining that they traded Kessel for a dog with the same fleas, but not complaining about his production. He's a guy that has had more seasons putting up a top-6 pace at ES (I'd say more than 30 ES points) than seasons of producing less than that.
Click to expand...

He was drafted in the top 5 and has a lot of expectations following him since then. He's been a good player and I think his contract is fine for how he has been playing for the past few years. It's make or break it for him in terms of turning into a top elite player but he is def. a good hockey player.
 
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Dipsy Doodle

Dipsy Doodle

Rent A Barn
May 28, 2006
76,562
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pixiesfanyo said:
I don’t really care about Kessel’s PP production. I think that is easily replaceable. If the difference between Kessel and Galchenyuk is 10 ES points for and he isn’t giving away the puck every other shift I’m fine with it.
Click to expand...

You can not care about the PP and be fine with significantly lesser ES production but it doesn't make their contributions equal.
 
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