Speculation: How many ES points will Galchenyuk score this year?

[Dipsy Doodle]

Subject of debate, thought we could throw some ideas out there.

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[SprootsMasterFlex]

You forgot to add 50+... its a possibility.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You forgot to add 50+... its a possibility.

It's patently ridiculous possibility, but I added it just for you.

 

[Durden Tyler]

expect about 40-45 points total, so went with 21-25. He will have some 1st unit PP and lot of 2nd unit so 20pts on it like he had last year should not be a problem for him.

 

[davemess]

Thinking 25-35, voted on the lower end.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

If he even manages to stick through the season, I'm thinking 21-25.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

20-25 goals, 60+ points.

 

[wej20]

I'm thinking high 20s low 30s, went optimistic and picked 31-35. If he plays a full season and finishes with less than 50 points then that's going to be a disappointment.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm really confused for why so many people are voting so low on Galchenyuk. Have people looked at his career numbers before? Just to throw it out there:

1. Galchenyuk has a career average of 33 ES points per 82 games.
2. Galchenyuk has a best ES season of 40 ES points, and ES scoring is up over 13% from that season.
3. Galchenyuk has never played with a linemate on par with Crosby or Malkin.
4. Galchenyuk has never played on a team as offensively talented as the Penguins.

Outside of being overly jaded, I don't see a rationale for assuming that he's going to score so little at ES. As far as I can tell, the worst case scenario for him is 35 ES points and 50 total points, assuming he plays a full season. The only way he gets lower than that is if he's injured or the Penguins as a team fall off a cliff offensively. For Galchenyuk to only hit 20-30 ES points while healthy, the Penguins would have to be one of the worst offensive teams in hockey like the 18-19 Coyotes and the 17-18 Habs.

 

[Ogrezilla]

30 something if he's in the top 6.

 

[EightyOne]

I'm really confused for why so many people are voting so low on Galchenyuk. Have people looked at his career numbers before? Just to throw it out there:

1. Galchenyuk has a career average of 33 ES points per 82 games.
2. Galchenyuk has a best ES season of 40 ES points, and ES scoring is up over 13% from that season.
3. Galchenyuk has never played with a linemate on par with Crosby or Malkin.
4. Galchenyuk has never played on a team as offensively talented as the Penguins.

Outside of being overly jaded, I don't see a rationale for assuming that he's going to score so little at ES. As far as I can tell, the worst case scenario for him is 35 ES points and 50 total points, assuming he plays a full season. The only way he gets lower than that is if he's injured or the Penguins as a team fall off a cliff offensively. For Galchenyuk to only hit 20-30 ES points while healthy, the Penguins would have to be one of the worst offensive teams in hockey like the 18-19 Coyotes and the 17-18 Habs.

I've been burned enough about the next great winger on the Pens that I can't be positive.

Hell, their current best winger was supposed to be a center!

 

[Honour Over Glory]

At least 10.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'm really confused for why so many people are voting so low on Galchenyuk. Have people looked at his career numbers before? Just to throw it out there:

1. Galchenyuk has a career average of 33 ES points per 82 games.
2. Galchenyuk has a best ES season of 40 ES points, and ES scoring is up over 13% from that season.
3. Galchenyuk has never played with a linemate on par with Crosby or Malkin.
4. Galchenyuk has never played on a team as offensively talented as the Penguins.

Outside of being overly jaded, I don't see a rationale for assuming that he's going to score so little at ES. As far as I can tell, the worst case scenario for him is 35 ES points and 50 total points, assuming he plays a full season. The only way he gets lower than that is if he's injured or the Penguins as a team fall off a cliff offensively. For Galchenyuk to only hit 20-30 ES points while healthy, the Penguins would have to be one of the worst offensive teams in hockey like the 18-19 Coyotes and the 17-18 Habs.

- his best seasons were primarily at center, his preferred position
- he's averaged 24 ES points per season the last 2 years
- Galchenyuk may spend some time in the bottom 6
- 31-35 point range is getting the most votes so far, which would represent a 15 point bump from last year
- you voted for 36-40, which would potentially represent only a 1 point difference from the most popular option

 

[The GM]

I predict he will outscore riley Sheehan

 

[Jacob]

I had a big huge thing typed up and realized the title said ES which rendered my entire spiel completely moot.

I think he's a lock for 30 ES points if he spends like 85% of the season in the top 6. We're all pencilling him in with Geno but I could easily see him clicking with Sid too.

I'm not too concerned about what his preferred position is. I prefer LD but I'm much better offensively on RD. Neal probably preferred LW but doubled his goal totals on RW. Galchenyuk has to concede that he doesn't have the face-off or defensive abilities to be C on anything remotely approaching a competitive team. He might have the best of both worlds here with Geno, where maybe they can share those duties a bit more since Geno

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'm not too concerned about what his preferred position is. I prefer LD but I'm much better offensively on RD. Neal probably preferred LW but doubled his goal totals on RW. Galchenyuk has to concede that he doesn't have the face-off or defensive abilities to be C on anything remotely approaching a competitive team. He might have the best of both worlds here with Geno, where maybe they can share those duties a bit more since Geno

Not saying this is inevitable or likely, but at this point Penguins fans have to acknowledge that forwards who prefer center aren't necessarily going to concede anything. Sometimes they just fail.

 

[Peat]

If he even manages to stick through the season, I'm thinking 21-25.

Kinda stating the obvious, but that sort of points pace is pretty mutually incompatible with sticking the season.

 

[Pens1566]

Less than Kessel will.

 

[Gurglesons]

Not saying this is inevitable or likely, but at this point Penguins fans have to acknowledge that forwards who prefer center aren't necessarily going to concede anything. Sometimes they just fail.

Difference being Galchenyuk just put up 40+ pts twice playing wing.

 

[Gurglesons]

Kinda stating the obvious, but that sort of points pace is pretty mutually incompatible with sticking the season.

He could get injured.

I think what is more than likely to happen is Galchenyuk has a solid 50-60 pt season and we lose him for nothing after a disappointing playoff run.

 

[Peat]

He could get injured.

I think what is more than likely to happen is Galchenyuk has a solid 50-60 pt season and we lose him for nothing after a disappointing playoff run.

I said pace precisely because of injuries, but you're right that it could result in that sort of pace without him getting traded anyway. I don't want to say it will absolutely follow that low ES point pace will result in him getting traded - just that it's very likely and it would take a corner case for him to not be.

 

[Gurglesons]

I said pace precisely because of injuries, but you're right that it could result in that sort of pace without him getting traded anyway. I don't want to say it will absolutely follow that low ES point pace will result in him getting traded - just that it's very likely and it would take a corner case for him to not be.

I just can’t wait for the inevitable Galchenyuk - Crosby - Rust line.

 

[Empoleon8771]

- his best seasons were primarily at center, his preferred position

And if you pretend he only played center those seasons and take them out entirely, he's still at 30 ES points per 82 games. Then the rest of the post still applies, but with a 30 point pace instead of a 33 point pace.

- he's averaged 24 ES points per season the last 2 years

Yes, playing for 2 teams that were bottom-3 in the NHL in offense. So unless Malkin turns into Drouin and the team starts scoring a goal fewer a game, Galchenyuk struggling on bad offensive teams doesn't matter.

- Galchenyuk may spend some time in the bottom 6

He almost definitely won't, Sullivan loves running with duos and I fully expect Malkin-Galchenyuk to be one of the duos he sticks with. I seriously doubt he wi spend any more time in the bottom-6 next year than Guentzel.

- 31-35 point range is getting the most votes so far, which would represent a 15 point bump from last year
- you voted for 36-40, which would potentially represent only a 1 point difference from the most popular option

When I made that post, 21-25 and 26-30 had just as many votes as 31-35.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Difference being Galchenyuk just put up 40+ pts twice playing wing.

He just put up 27 and 20 ES points playing wing.

 

[Gurglesons]

He just put up 27 and 20 ES points playing wing.

Not sure how that effects what I said?