Speculation: How many ES points will Galchenyuk score this year?

[Gurglesons]

You can not care about the PP and be fine with significantly lesser ES production but it doesn't make their contributions equal.

It does when the defensive contributions will not be.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It does when the defensive contributions will not be.

And how are you measuring that? Because it would have to be a pretty sizeable difference considering Kessel's advantages elsewhere, and Galchenyuk isn't even a good defensive player himself.

 

[MrBurghundy]

I misread the thread, and didn't see the "ES" portion of the title...

Needless to say, my prediction is a bit off. I'd probably say in the 30's somewhere.

 

[Gurglesons]

And how are you measuring that? Because it would have to be a pretty sizeable difference considering Kessel's advantages elsewhere, and Galchenyuk isn't even a good defensive player himself.

Kessel last year was a net negative when on the ice. Chances are the other team was outscoring him or taking the puck away and outchancing him. While Galchenyuk isn’t some stud he isn’t that.

 

[Habs10025]

Galchenyuk will be a 65 to 70 point player in Pittsburgh if he gets 1st unit pp time .

75 games 25 goals 40 assists 65 points . ( 37 even strength points )

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Kessel last year was a net negative when on the ice. Chances are the other team was outscoring him or taking the puck away and outchancing him. While Galchenyuk isn’t some stud he isn’t that.

He will be if he's playing with JJ:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Whaddya know, when you take the human dumpster fire out of the equation, Kessel's GF was 37 and his GA was 27. It's almost like he's a net positive when he doesn't have an albatross around his neck.

You can't just ignore that Kessel was playing a huge portion of his time with arguably the worst defenseman in the league. That's the aberration here. Kessel's defense was always bad, but it was never an overriding issue until the team started icing JJ with him.

That's why Geno had such a down year too. Why ignore this obvious key variable?

 

[Turin]

He will be if he's playing with JJ:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Whaddya know, when you take the human dumpster fire out of the equation, Kessel's GF was 37 and his GA was 27. It's almost like he's a net positive when he doesn't have an albatross around his neck.

You can't just ignore that Kessel was playing a huge portion of his time with arguably the worst defenseman in the league. That's the aberration here. Kessel's defense was always bad, but it was never an overriding issue until the team started icing JJ with him.

That's why Geno had such a down year too. Why ignore this obvious key variable?

... all that suggested is that Johnson is worse than Kessel, which is true, but they’re both terrible defensively and make each other worse. Kessel without JJ still wasn’t too hot.

 

[ColePens]

I don't care what he does as long as he goes off and scores 20 in the playoffs on the way to a Cup.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I don't care what he does as long as he goes off and scores 20 in the playoffs on the way to a Cup.

Cool, but are those 20 in playoffs ES?!?

 

[ColePens]

Cool, but are those 20 in playoffs ES?!?

I don't care if he scores 20 ENGs. Just end with a Cup.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

... all that suggested is that Johnson is worse than Kessel, which is true, but they’re both terrible defensively and make each other worse. Kessel without JJ still wasn’t too hot.

It also suggests that Kessel's dip last year can be directly attributed to JJ. His numbers without JJ look good to me.

As I've said, Kessel has always been bad defensively but unlike JJ, he has an elite skillset that makes him a big net positive when he doesn't have an anchor around his neck.

If anyone thinks Galchenyuk will fare better if given the same deployment with JJ, they're in for a rude awakening. What do you think happens when you have a defensively suspect winger who's not an elite ES producer getting big minutes with Johnson? I have a pretty good idea.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I don't care if he scores 20 ENGs. Just end with a Cup.

Just answer the question that has been asked, Cole.

 

[Gurglesons]

It also suggests that Kessel's dip last year can be directly attributed to JJ. His numbers without JJ look good to me.

As I've said, Kessel has always been bad defensively but unlike JJ, he has an elite skillset that makes him a big net positive when he doesn't have an anchor around his neck.

If anyone thinks Galchenyuk will fare better if given the same deployment with JJ, they're in for a rude awakening. What do you think happens when you have a defensively suspect winger who's not an elite ES producer getting big minutes with Johnson? I have a pretty good idea.

JJ was used with Kessel out of necessity. Also, I’m JJ public enemy number one but blaming JJ for things like this:

Phil Kessel falls, Cam Atkinson scores short-handed for Blue Jackets - Sportsnet.ca



Is certainly odd.

 

[Turin]

It also suggests that Kessel's dip last year can be directly attributed to JJ. His numbers without JJ look good to me.

As I've said, Kessel has always been bad defensively but unlike JJ, he has an elite skillset that makes him a big net positive when he doesn't have an anchor around his neck.

If anyone thinks Galchenyuk will fare better if given the same deployment with JJ, they're in for a rude awakening. What do you think happens when you have a defensively suspect winger who's not an elite ES producer getting big minutes with Johnson? I have a pretty good idea.

Kessel also insisted on playing in that spot, so that’s kind of on him. I agree there will be problems if JJ is still on the team, but pinning all of the problems on him is shortsighted. JJ didn’t make Phil into a real bad possession player, he already is that away from JJ now, Johnson just further exposes the problem.

Kessel is getting worse defensively. Look at Kessel’s performance without Malkin. It’s gross. There was a time in the not so distant past that Kessel could drive play on his own. Doesn’t look like he can at 32 years old.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

JJ was used with Kessel out of necessity. Also, I’m JJ public enemy number one but blaming JJ for things like this:

Phil Kessel falls, Cam Atkinson scores short-handed for Blue Jackets - Sportsnet.ca



Is certainly odd.

The justification for why he and JJ had to play together so often isn't disputed.

What I'm arguing is that Johnson was why Kessel's defense became an overriding concern after last season, and anyone expecting different results from another defensively suspect forward like Galchenyuk if he's used with JJ as often is going to be in for a shock. Kessel had elite ES offense to help counterbalance the JJ effect...Galchenyuk clearly does not.

We just have to hope Pettersson and Schultz is a thing.

Kessel also insisted on playing in that spot, so that’s kind of on him. I agree there will be problems if JJ is still on the team, but pinning all of the problems on him is shortsighted. JJ didn’t make Phil into a real bad possession player, he already is that away from JJ now, Johnson just further exposes the problem.

I don't think he insisted on playing with Jack Johnson. Kind of "pick-your-poison" for an elite offensive winger to either play with Malkin and JJ or Bjugstad and whoever else is left on defense after the first 2 pairings.

Johnson is a godawful defenseman. Typically when you have an elite forward with defensive issues, you try to insulate them a bit rather than throw them directly into the fire. While I realize the coaching staff didn't exactly have a lot of options, my main issue isn't with them but how Kessel gets criticized for falling off defensively when he was more a victim of circumstance than anything. The numbers bear that out - when you take JJ out of the equation, Kessel's better than any recent year.

Everyone Is Much Worse With Johnson™.

Kessel is getting worse defensively. Look at Kessel’s performance without Malkin. It’s gross. There was a time in the not so distant past that Kessel could drive play on his own. Doesn’t look like he can at 32 years old.

Every damn star on the team takes a huge possession plunge when they're with Johnson. This is not a Kessel-specific statistical anomaly:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Crosby's baseline possession is lights-out, but the difference in his possession #s with JJ and without is even more pronounced than Kessel's! Malkin's baseline is good but lower than Sid's, so his raw possession numbers are quite a bit lower. And of course Kessel, whose baseline is the worst of the bunch, ends up with the worst possession of all.

I repeat: Everyone Is Much Worse With Johnson™.

That being the case, Malkin and Galchenyuk must be kept away from JJ at all costs.

JJ was used with Kessel out of necessity. Also, I’m JJ public enemy number one but blaming JJ for things like this:

Phil Kessel falls, Cam Atkinson scores short-handed for Blue Jackets - Sportsnet.ca



Is certainly odd.

There are 5X more (and more embarrassing) Letang bloopers from recent playoffs if you want to go down the anecdotal evidence route. Like I said above, the numbers show that when JJ wasn't around Kessel was actually better last year than any recent season.

Not a reality any Pens fan wants to acknowledge after we offloaded the elite winger and still have the stinker of a defenseman on the roster, but that's what happened. Pray the Pens brass has the cojones to make sure JJ sees little to no ice this year, one way or another. Galchenyuk's success here depends on it.

 

[canadianguy77]

Depends on if last year's Malkin is the new Malkin. If his play over the last 4 or 5 months of the season was an abberation, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities that Galchenyuk could be a 60 point player.

 

[Gurglesons]

The justification for why he and JJ had to play together so often isn't disputed.

What I'm arguing is that Johnson was why Kessel's defense became an overriding concern after last season, and anyone expecting different results from another defensively suspect forward like Galchenyuk if he's used with JJ as often is going to be in for a shock. Kessel had elite ES offense to help counterbalance the JJ effect...Galchenyuk clearly does not.

We just have to hope Pettersson and Schultz is a thing.



I don't think he insisted on playing with Jack Johnson. Kind of "pick-your-poison" for an elite offensive winger to either play with Malkin and JJ or Bjugstad and whoever else is left on defense after the first 2 pairings.

Johnson is a godawful defenseman. Typically when you have an elite forward with defensive issues, you try to insulate them a bit rather than throw them directly into the fire. While I realize the coaching staff didn't exactly have a lot of options, my main issue isn't with them but how Kessel gets criticized for falling off defensively when he was more a victim of circumstance than anything. The numbers bear that out - when you take JJ out of the equation, Kessel's better than any recent year.

Everyone Is Much Worse With Johnson™.



Every damn star on the team takes a huge possession plunge when they're with Johnson. This is not a Kessel-specific statistical anomaly:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Crosby's baseline possession is lights-out, but the difference in his possession #s with JJ and without is even more pronounced than Kessel's! Malkin's baseline is good but lower than Sid's, so his raw possession numbers are quite a bit lower. And of course Kessel, whose baseline is the worst of the bunch, ends up with the worst possession of all.

I repeat: Everyone Is Much Worse With Johnson™.

That being the case, Malkin and Galchenyuk must be kept away from JJ at all costs.



There are 5X more (and more embarrassing) Letang bloopers from recent playoffs if you want to go down the anecdotal evidence route. Like I said above, the numbers show that when JJ wasn't around Kessel was actually better last year than any recent season.

Not a reality any Pens fan wants to acknowledge after we offloaded the elite winger and still have the stinker of a defenseman on the roster, but that's what happened. Pray the Pens brass has the cojones to make sure JJ sees little to no ice this year, one way or another. Galchenyuk's success here depends on it.

I think I’m literally the last person you need to preach about JJ to.

Also, I think you’re really scapegoating how bad Kessel has been defensively the past two years.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think I’m literally the last person you need to preach about JJ to.

Yeah, but I think his impact on Kessel's play last year isn't given near as much weight around here as it should.

Also, I think you’re really scapegoating how bad Kessel has been defensively the past two years.

I'm just trying to interpret the numbers here, and they seem to match the eye test.

Every single one of our stars got demonstrably, significantly worse in terms of possession when they were with JJ, which makes all the sense in the world because every time he's on the ice the puck is in our end. Kessel having the worst baseline among our stars would naturally still have the worst numbers, but his relative drop in possession is right in line with Crosby and Malkin...smaller than Sid's, actually.

What I'm saying is that if JJ's with Galchenyuk as often as Kessel was, there are going to be problems. Much worse problems than Kessel last year.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Sullivan will bench him by November, so 21-25.

 

[LOGiK]

I went 26 to 30, but I'm in the ballpark of between 20 and 30 es points.