How good is Jake Muzzin?

[Sidney the Kidney]

Why?

Because he's closer to a #2 by most standards, so I'm surprised you'd undersell him when you usually don't undersell Leaf players.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Because he's closer to a #2 by most standards, so I'm surprised you'd undersell him when you usually don't undersell Leaf players.

It's because the Leafs are using him as a #3 right now and he has excelled at it. He's solidified a shutdown pairing and elevated Holl. I think that's the ideal spot for him on a contender. But I guess in raw abilities he is a good #2. IDK I guess it depends on what context we are talking, hence my indecision.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It's because the Leafs are using him as a #3 right now and he has excelled at it. He's solidified a shutdown pairing and elevated Holl. I think that's the ideal spot for him on a contender. But I guess in raw abilities he is a good #2. IDK I guess it depends on what context we are talking, hence my indecision.

I don't think team usage should matter in these types of polls. Otherwise you could end up with results like Pronger being picked as a #2 defenseman because Niedermayer was on the "top pair" during their Cup run, or conversely a crappy defenseman being listed as a #1 because he just happened to be the best on a team with terrible defense.

I think Muzzin's a #2 because he's "good" at both offense and defense. He's not a #1 (to me) because he's not elite at either. He's a step above a #3 because, in my books, a #3 is someone who is good at one aspect but only average at the other.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I don't think team usage should matter in these types of polls. Otherwise you could end up with results like Pronger being picked as a #2 defenseman because Niedermayer was on the "top pair" during their Cup run, or conversely a crappy defenseman being listed as a #1 because he just happened to be the best on a team with terrible defense.

I think Muzzin's a #2 because he's "good" at both offense and defense. He's not a #1 (to me) because he's not elite at either. He's a step above a #3 because, in my books, a #3 is someone who is good at one aspect but only average at the other.

Fair. I don't really care at the end of the day. He's the kind of guy every team wouldn't mind having back there and he has become a favorite in TO with his hits and play around his net.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

A lot of people in here forgetting he was an all-situations #2 on a literal Stanley Cup Champion so the question of whether he 'can' or not isn't valid

Top end complementary #2, would be a very low end #1, totally commands a 2nd pairing if he's your #3.

 

[67Leafs67]

I'm surprised that only 36.5% of the votes have him as a top pairing defenseman, and just 2.6% of those are as a No. 1 defenseman. Unsurprisingly, the responses in this thread claiming Muzzin belongs somewhere in the #3-6 range are not substantiated by any kind of evidence.

Not that TOI is at all a good metric for a player's ability, but Muzzin ranked 60th among defensemen this year in TOI/GP at 21:36, and 40th in even strength minutes, so he is clearly getting used like a #2 d-man by Babcock/Keefe. He was 58th in Pts/GP, and that is with no powerplay time, as Toronto has Rielly and Barrie...on most teams Muzzin would be a staple on PP2. He was 37th in the NHL in raw even-strength points (22), and 20th in 5v5 points per hour. His 0.37 goals per hour were 25th at 5v5.

If you are into a more robust level of statistical analysis, he ranks 24th in the NHL for GAR, and 23rd at a per hour rate among defensemen with 500+ minutes. He was 37th in xGAR as well, and 27th on a per hour rate. He was 44th in regularized, adjusted xG+/- per hour at even-strength. He did all of this while in the 79th percentile for TOI vs elite competition, in the 13th percentile for offensive-zone start ratio. In layman's terms, that means he played a matchup pairing role, mostly utilized in important minutes, for defensive leverage.

Now, I know numbers are hard, but if you'll bear with me, in a league with thirty-one teams, any player in the top 31 is a "number one" and any player in the top 62 is a "number two", and you'd have to be 63rd or below to be a number three or worse. None of those bolded numbers are lower than 60th. I suspect the vast majority of people base their opinions on the rather banal, surface level analysis of "TOI + points = good"...and even by that measure, Muzzin sits 60th in TOI/GP and 58th in Pts/GP. If you want to get a little bit more sophisticated, he starts to fall more into your 20th-40th range.

In my opinion, Muzzin doesn't really stand out, because he's an incredibly well-rounded defenseman. He can play a variety of styles very competently, and is the kind of d-man who can matchup against top competition, and be good on both ends of the ice. He isn't particularly special in any one area, and his game isn't extremely flashy, but it is effective. Good things happen when he is on the ice. I would venture to say he belongs in that 25th to 45th range, which can be translated as somewhere between a low-end #1, and a good #2. Top pairing for sure though, with more than 36.5% certainty.

 

[JoVel]

I think the votes being split between 2 and 3 seems about right.

 

[lottster14]

#2 on the leafs/ half the league, #3 on the other half.

 

[Menzinger]

I suspect the folks claiming hes a #3 would be hard pressed to show their work...

 

[Regal]

I'm surprised that only 36.5% of the votes have him as a top pairing defenseman, and just 2.6% of those are as a No. 1 defenseman. Unsurprisingly, the responses in this thread claiming Muzzin belongs somewhere in the #3-6 range are not substantiated by any kind of evidence.

Not that TOI is at all a good metric for a player's ability, but Muzzin ranked 60th among defensemen this year in TOI/GP at 21:36, and 40th in even strength minutes, so he is clearly getting used like a #2 d-man by Babcock/Keefe. He was 58th in Pts/GP, and that is with no powerplay time, as Toronto has Rielly and Barrie...on most teams Muzzin would be a staple on PP2. He was 37th in the NHL in raw even-strength points (22), and 20th in 5v5 points per hour. His 0.37 goals per hour were 25th at 5v5.

If you are into a more robust level of statistical analysis, he ranks 24th in the NHL for GAR, and 23rd at a per hour rate among defensemen with 500+ minutes. He was 37th in xGAR as well, and 27th on a per hour rate. He was 44th in regularized, adjusted xG+/- per hour at even-strength. He did all of this while in the 79th percentile for TOI vs elite competition, in the 13th percentile for offensive-zone start ratio. In layman's terms, that means he played a matchup pairing role, mostly utilized in important minutes, for defensive leverage.

Now, I know numbers are hard, but if you'll bear with me, in a league with thirty-one teams, any player in the top 31 is a "number one" and any player in the top 62 is a "number two", and you'd have to be 63rd or below to be a number three or worse. None of those bolded numbers are lower than 60th. I suspect the vast majority of people base their opinions on the rather banal, surface level analysis of "TOI + points = good"...and even by that measure, Muzzin sits 60th in TOI/GP and 58th in Pts/GP. If you want to get a little bit more sophisticated, he starts to fall more into your 20th-40th range.

In my opinion, Muzzin doesn't really stand out, because he's an incredibly well-rounded defenseman. He can play a variety of styles very competently, and is the kind of d-man who can matchup against top competition, and be good on both ends of the ice. He isn't particularly special in any one area, and his game isn't extremely flashy, but it is effective. Good things happen when he is on the ice. I would venture to say he belongs in that 25th to 45th range, which can be translated as somewhere between a low-end #1, and a good #2. Top pairing for sure though, with more than 36.5% certainty.

I think a lot of people just have unrealistic expectations for what the ideal player would be for a role. We see this with great 2-way centers all the time, where many people will claim ROR or Couturier are "ideally your number 2 center" because they envision an elite scorer as the #1 center, but they are quite clearly also #1 centers in the league. Though I don't know how even under those circumstances anyone could put Muzzin outside of the top 4. I can only assume they have an unsubstantiated opinion of him. There isn't a single team with 4 better defensemen.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He's a #3 on a top 10 defence, #2 on top 20 defence, #1 if your D is not very good.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I don’t understand the people voting number one or number five. Probably shouldn’t have been options imo. I’d say he’s at worst a three and at best a number two. Probably somewhere in the middle. Wish he was on the Canucks. He brings a bit of everything.

 

[Morgs]

Lower end #2 or great #3 with really no weaknesses.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm kind of curious now who people who voted #3 or below would consider a #2.

 

[VC]

I'm kind of curious now who people who voted #3 or below would consider a #2.

A first pairing defensemen but not the anchor. Kind of like an Alex Edler of yesteryear.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

A first pairing defensemen but not the anchor. Kind of like an Alex Edler of yesteryear.

That's essentially what Muzzin is.

 

[HarryLime]

It depends on how good your anchor #1 dman is tbh. Muzzin with a norris caliber guy like prime Doughty or Keith is a fine #2 guy but given who Toronto's #1 d-man is and the forwards defensive deficiencies I'd have to say he should prob be #3.

 

[VC]

That's essentially what Muzzin is.

Was. No question when the Kings last won the cup 6 years ago. Now at 31 years old, he can fill in on the first pairing but if expect him to be there regularly, your defensive corps is lacking. Not to say a 31 yo cannot be a #2, I just don't think Muzzin is that.

 

[joe dirte]

A lot of people in here forgetting he was an all-situations #2 on a literal Stanley Cup Champion so the question of whether he 'can' or not isn't valid

Top end complementary #2, would be a very low end #1, totally commands a 2nd pairing if he's your #3.

As a leafs fan ill say hes not a high end number 2 anymore. More like an average one. But as a number 3 youre spot on. Hes paired with a fringe NHLer and theyre doing well.

If either of the leafs young dmen blossom into a top pairing guy the leafs could have a very good defense to go along with their firepower.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think he's one of the 31 best defensemen in the league, so I voted #1.

View attachment 356702

Wow you think the leafs would be a lot better since they have a top 8 leaguewide defenseman as well as Muzzin being an additional #1 guy.

Yet they are bottom 5 in GA, and thats with every leafs forward being great 2-way as well....

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I'd say he's a low end #2 or the very high end #3. Fills in the top 55-65 range.

 

[mynamejeff420]

Wow you think the leafs would be a lot better since they have a top 8 leaguewide defenseman as well as Muzzin being an additional #1 guy.

Yet they are bottom 5 in GA, and thats with every leafs forward being great 2-way as well....

Well Rielly is there despite being one of the worst defensemen in the league defensively, so I'm not sure how that would help limit the Leafs GA. Rielly's great offensively but his defensive game is terrible. Not only that, but Barrie and Ceci are also both terrible defensively. So if you're wondering how the Leafs could have 2 really good defenseman and still let in a ton of goals, I'd point to 3 out of their top 5 defensemen in TOI all sucking defensively.

Also where did I suggest that every Leafs forward is a great 2-way player (or really where is anyone suggesting that)? Most of the forwards on the Leafs, especially their top guys, are also terrible defensively. The Leafs have a ton of talented offensive players (some of the best in the league) but they also have some of the worst defensive players. Muzzin being a great player doesn't invalidate that, nor does Rielly being good offensively make his defense anything but awful.

The Leafs being a bottom 5 team in GA and Rielly/Muzzin being good aren't mutually exclusive things, both can be true.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Well Rielly is there despite being one of the worst defensemen in the league defensively, so I'm not sure how that would help limit the Leafs GA. Rielly's great offensively but his defensive game is terrible. Not only that, but Barrie and Ceci are also both terrible defensively. So if you're wondering how the Leafs could have 2 really good defenseman and still let in a ton of goals, I'd point to 3 out of their top 5 defensemen in TOI all sucking defensively.

Also where did I suggest that every Leafs forward is a great 2-way player (or really where is anyone suggesting that)? Most of the forwards on the Leafs, especially their top guys, are also terrible defensively. The Leafs have a ton of talented offensive players (some of the best in the league) but they also have some of the worst defensive players. Muzzin being a great player doesn't invalidate that, nor does Rielly being good offensively make his defense anything but awful.

The Leafs being a bottom 5 team in GA and Rielly/Muzzin being good aren't mutually exclusive things, both can be true.

I think that should tell you a thing or 2 about the metric you're using to justify Muzzin as a #1dman. That same metric says Rielly is the 8th best defensemen in the league even though you think he is absolutely terrible defensively. You can't be a top 10 defenseman leaguewide and be "one of the worst defensemen in the league defensively".

The comment about the forwards was more to other leaf fans in general. They tend to argue how their star forwards are amazing defensively as well. They're absolutely elite offensively (top 3 in the league) but defensively the numbers/results aren't there to claim defensive greatness. But I think we see eye to eye on this.

 

[mynamejeff420]

I think that should tell you a thing or 2 about the metric you're using to justify Muzzin as a #1dman. That same metric says Rielly is the 8th best defensemen in the league even though you think he is absolutely terrible defensively. You can't be a top 10 defenseman leaguewide and be "one of the worst defensemen in the league defensively".

The comment about the forwards was more to other leaf fans in general. They tend to argue how their star forwards are amazing defensively as well. They're absolutely elite offensively (top 3 in the league) but defensively the numbers/results aren't there to claim defensive greatness. But I think we see eye to eye on this.

I don't think bad defense should disqualify a player from being considered one of the best at their position, just so long as their overall impact (offense and defense) is top of the league. Rielly may not be very good defensively, but his offense more than makes up for it. He's top 10 because he's that much better offensively than he is bad defensively. Simple as that. What shouldn't matter (to a certain extent) is how you arrive at your overall impact level, what should matter is what your overall impact is. Rielly's overall impact over the last 3 years is 8th best among defensemen, because he was really good offensively. If your offensive game is good enough, defense doesn't really matter (see: Connor McDavid).

Plenty of defensemen are and were considered to be in the top 10 despite terrible defensive play. John Carlson now, Brent Burns a few years ago, and Mike Green before him are all examples of this. It's really hard to be a top 10 defenseman (or even a top 10 forward tbh) with terrible defense, and it's super rare, but it happens. It just means that your offensive game has to be so elite that it can dwarf your terrible defense. It happened with Green, Burns, and Carlson, and it happened with Rielly.

Though I should make it clear that Rielly is only there because he had an insane 18/19 season. Like an unsustainably good season. A season buoyed by a super high on-ice shooting percentage. That doesn't mean his season wasn't great, it just means that his season wasn't sustainable. If you remove 18/19 and just look at 17/18 and 19/20 (which isn't really fair because 18/19 still happened, but this is just to contextualize how he landed in the spot he did) he ranks 77th among defenseman, which is more in line with where you'd expect a really good offensive defenseman who struggles defensively.

 

[biturbo19]

I'd consider Muzzin toward the lower-end of what i'd call a "Top-3D". He's not a true #1 at all. Beyond that though...the difference between a #2 and #3, is pretty ambiguous and often more just about pairings, utilization, and fit. Ie. Is the #2 the guy riding shotgun with a #1D? Or the guy anchoring a second pairing by himself? Often just comes down to fit, handedness, style of play, depth of team, etc.

I think Muzzin is better than what i'd call a "#4D" who is capable of hanging on in the Top-4 respectably, either on a second-pairing alongside a solid Top-3D, or maybe even on a top-pairing with a True #1D, just so long as they're not asked to be the anchor. He's capable of being more than that, and anchoring a solid second-pairing. So he pushes into that Top-3D territory, just not sure it's as far into that realm as some of the flattering statistical situations may have some people convinced of.