Speculation: How far are we from winning the cup?

[groovejuice]

That's part of his charm.

I got my PhD in charm at Eton.
He's struggling as an undergrad at Faber.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We would've been a lot closer if we hadn't needlessly shot ourselves in the foot this offseason.

Believe it or not the hard part is done. We actually have elite talent to build around. That's hard to do. Now we have to fill in the roster with good players. We have to get bigger for sure too.

We can't afford any more stupid mistakes like last year.

 

[Yep]

We're this guy away from winning the cup :

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

A major rebuild and a minimum of at least five years away. Problem is, management won't allow a drop to the bottom to do a correct rebuild so it will be never at this rate.

It is not just how good you think your team is and how much it has improved, it is how good your team is relative to the other 29 teams and how much they have improved. Right now, Montreal is stuck in the middle, not getting any better against the other teams who are also improving as well nor getting worse to be able to get better players via the draft. Montreal now is a treadmill team running hard but getting nowhere against the other teams, and with the present philosophy of the Habs management to satisfy the media and always try for a winner, they will remain that middle level treadmill team.

As well, the Habs keep saying they are going to rebuild through the draft, but if Montreal is going to rebuild a team via a draft that is better than other teams, it has to have draft results that are better than other team's drafts as well. However the draft results of recent years are hardly stellar compared to other teams. In the drafts since 2008, Montreal has only Galchenyuk and Gallagher who are quality players from the draft and that is not enough top players. (Yes they did get Eller for Halak who was drafted in 2003, but that was a result of a draft ten years ago.)

Look at the players drafted in the last five years aside from Galchenyuk and Gallagher. First round: 2008 - Thomas(Kristo) - in the minors; 2009 -Louis leblanc - up and down and average at best; 2010 - Jared Tinordi - back down and looking slow and average at best; 2011 - Nathan Beaulieu - 11 games and OK, but no star, a good average; 2012 - Galchenyuk - good but he was the can't miss third pick; 2013 -McCarron - big slow and you have to wearing homer glasses to see star in him or anybody else in that draft besides Fucale. For players beyond the first round, aside from Gallagher, none are playing in the NHL.

In 2007 they hit the jackpot with Pacioretty and Subban and even McDonagh and these are the kind of draft results that are needed every year if they are going to improve by the draft. At the rate they are going, and with the few and far between gems they do get that they need to improve with, by the time they get them, guys like Subban and Eller will be retired. All teams garner stars here and there, but if your draft is average compared to other teams, and you draft mostly average players, you end up with an average team.

Montreal needs to realize this is not the last century and change its philosophy to get the best management available if it wants the best results, and not just get ones who can speak to the local French media. They also definitely, definitely, have to do better in the draft if they want to win by the draft, else this team will just go on being mediocre forever.

I don't think so. The days of radical rebuild being necessary are over. However, that doesn't mean the work is done. The moves we make now are critical and will really determine how we do over the next five years.

IF we make the right moves we have a shot at being a contender in a few seasons. If we'd been smart we could've been much better this year actually.

Contenders have at least one star player and most have more than one. We've got a top goalie and one of the best blueliners in the game. We've got a kid who looks like he could be elite (that's a big maybe) in the next year or two. IF he pans out we have three elite players each at different positions. Very good.

We've got Eller, Pac, Gallagher and Plecs - all good forwards. Add one big scoring winger and we're in good shape.

The real concern is on the D. Biiiig hole there. And that's why I'd advocate dealing Markov now. In two or three years (when we're hopefully close) he won't be nearly as effective. Makes sense to deal him.

Unfortunately you get rid of him and the cupboards are bare. Young unproven blueliners who aren't projected to be elite and will go through growing pains. If one pans out it would be great but we can't count on it. And here's where our offseason really hurts. Instead of addressing this we stuck ourselves with Briere. We have other small forwards we're stuck with too. Definitely some work to do.

No doubt we aren't there now. We could've been closer but we ****ed up. If we **** up again its going to be very difficult to come back from it. But if we can fix the D and get bigger up front we can make some noise. A lot would have to go right but a lot of pieces are there.

 

[ClasslessGuy]

PPG player on top 6, top faceoff 4rth line player, bottom pair.

 

[ECWHSWI]

I don't think so. The days of radical rebuild being necessary are over. However, that doesn't mean the work is done. The moves we make now are critical and will really determine how we do over the next five years.

IF we make the right moves we have a shot at being a contender in a few seasons. If we'd been smart we could've been much better this year actually.

every team have at least one star player and most have more than one. We've got a top goalie and one of the best blueliners in the game. We've got a kid who looks like he could be elite (that's a big maybe) in the next year or two. IF he pans out we have three elite players each at different positions. Very good.

We've got Eller, Pac, Gallagher and Plecs - all good forwards. Add one big scoring winger and we're in good shape.

The real concern is on the D. Biiiig hole there. And that's why I'd advocate dealing Markov now. In two or three years (when we're hopefully close) he won't be nearly as effective. Makes sense to deal him.

Unfortunately you get rid of him and the cupboards are bare. Young unproven blueliners who aren't projected to be elite and will go through growing pains. If one pans out it would be great but we can't count on it. And here's where our offseason really hurts. Instead of addressing this we stuck ourselves with Briere. We have other small forwards we're stuck with too. Definitely some work to do.

No doubt we aren't there now. We could've been closer but we ****ed up. If we **** up again its going to be very difficult to come back from it. But if we can fix the D and get bigger up front we can make some noise. A lot would have to go right but a lot of pieces are there.

fixed.

 

[Habs]

I say the glass is half full, my neighbor says it is half empty, and you say it is full of urine, cracked so badly it has lost structural integrity, infested with leeches who are infected with AIDS, and when smashed will release the antichrist.

Can I put this in my signature?

That's part of his charm.

It takes 10 or so years, but I grow on people.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I say the glass is half full, my neighbor says it is half empty, and you say it is full of urine, cracked so badly it has lost structural integrity, infested with leeches who are infected with AIDS, and when smashed will release the antichrist.

Classic.

 

[Draft]

I open up the thread and the first comment is telling me we're a fourth liner and bottom pairing defenceman away from winning the cup?

I'd expect we could be contenders if we're able to acquire a top line winger, a replacement for Markov, and a physical top-6 winger. That's not Chicago level but that could be LA level. We'd need to continue to have outstanding depth and some pretty incredible performances from our impact players but, I think that would bring us a little closer.

 

[Montreal Impact FC]

We are as far as the management believe we are... or close we are from... but so far as we dont act like a team that wants it... ill say we are pretty far... deceiving to say the least.

 

[ECWHSWI]

We are as far as the management believe we are... or close we are... but ad far as we dont act like a team that wants it... ill say we are pretty far... deceiving to say the least.

lemme guess, they didnt the moves YOU would have done, so they dont really want it... right ?

 

[Bloumeister]

I open up the thread and the first comment is telling me we're a fourth liner and bottom pairing defenceman away from winning the cup?

I'd expect we could be contenders if we're able to acquire a top line winger, a replacement for Markov, and a physical top-6 winger. That's not Chicago level but that could be LA level. We'd need to continue to have outstanding depth and some pretty incredible performances from our impact players but, I think that would bring us a little closer.

That's right... provided the 4th liner is Crosby and we replace Bouillon/Murray with Weber (Shea, not Yannick) or Doughty

 

[Gamimenos]

I think this team has a depth issue. This is not necessarily a "4th line player" or "bottom 6 player" issue, but the lack of NHL-capable personnel to take over once one guy goes down. As a healthy team I think we're quite good. Once we lose a player, things start to stink. If we address this in the coming years by having capable guys take over when we lose players, we'll be a contender. Essentially, we need a richer crop of prospects in Hamilton. I'm hoping it won't take more than 3 years.

 

[RealityBytes]

yup, and here you are trying to predict how things will turn out...

Reread the posts more carefully. That is Quagmier's statement that the Habs are just a few lucky bounces away from a cup. I don't agree with that, but if he is going to say that is all the Hab's need, well then according to his idea, that is about what half of the teams in the league would need.

The Habs are in a doldrum, not good enough to be good, not bad enough to be bad, just sittin' in the middle and it will take more than just a few lucky bounces for them to win it all.

 

[ChemiseBleuHonnete]

We lack size, we lack goal scoring ability in our top 9 and bigger defence.

So we basically lack everything minus a goog goalie...

 

[FinnHab]

1C, 1 ppg winger and stud D-man. And of course Price needs to be best player on the team in playoffs.

 

[vokiel]

This management group will not make it imho. So my answer is pretty far. (decade)

 

[WeThreeKings]

We need 2 top 4 D... we need a couple more top 6 wingers with size.. we need a decent 4th line..

And all of that will be impossible to acquire with our cap hell from overpaid depth players that suck.

So, 10 years

 

[jaffy27]

The day McCarron becomes a 30 GOAL second line power winger is the same year we win the cup (4-5yrs)

 

[otto bond]

The moon, is that far enough?

 

[billy piton]

We are not as far as many think. Yes, we have some holes in the lineup, but in salary cap world every team has it. The hawks won the cup with frickin michal handzus as their 2nd line center. And they were dead last in hits that year as well, which means that they weren't physical at all.

Imo, our defence and goalies are set. We have probably the best top pairing in the league, there are three good to great puckmovers, two big hitters, an elite shotblocker etc. The depth isn't an issue as well, since i doubt that many teams have a better #5 dman than diaz. #6 spot will be great with tinordi there soon.

The major issue, imo, is scoring. If we could snatch an elite winger like vanek we would become contender instantly.

 

[FXBrassard]

We are pretty close. At this point Bergevin can pretty much not do anything and we'd be a pretty good team for years to come. If he continues to hand out bad contracts like Desharnais, Briere, and the rumoured Diaz deal, then he can definitely screw this up.

2015-2016 projected roster

Pacioretty - Galchenyuk - Gallagher
X1 - Eller - X2
Bournival - Plekanec - X3
Prust - White - X4

Subban - Markov
Emelin - Gorges
Tinordi - Beaulieu
X5

Price
Fucale

The only big hole that needs filling is X1. We need a big time offensive player here if we want to be a top team. The only way to get them without touching our core is UFAs, that's why managing the cap is paramount so we have enough space to sign the player we need when he is available. Think Thomas Vanek.

For X2 and X3, I think we can look within the organization. Expecting one of Collberg, Lehkonen or Andrighetto to develop into a good 2nd liner is reasonable. For X3, we have McCarron, De La Rose, and Leblanc. I'd be kind of shocked if we can't find 2 top 9 players between those 6 prospects.

Filling the 4th line is whatever, pretty easy thing to do.

On defense it's very hard to predict. At first I almost left out Markov and that would've been a big hole to fill (solid top pairing D). But he will only be 36, and he mostly rely on his smarts to be effective. If we judge he's too old to be a part of our core then, the moment to trade him is now and we need to get a young top 4 d in return. It's also pretty hard to predict how Beaulieu and Tinordi will develop. I feel pretty confident putting them as a 3rd pairing and that really is a worst case scenario.

So basically... there's only one big hole to fill for this team to be a contender, and that's a big time offensive player. We need to manage the cap so we have the space to get him through UFAs. Maybe 2 if you count out Markov. I think every player that doesn't fit in this plan should absolutely be traded for more assets. Bourque, Gionta, Desharnais, Briere, Diaz... i would all trade them for picks and futures.

 

[bsl]

I got my PhD in charm at Eton.
He's struggling as an undergrad at Faber.

Careful. Bragging is bad form. And you know that. You'd be surprised at who's on these boards.

 

[bsl]

lemme guess, they didnt the moves YOU would have done, so they dont really want it... right ?

Do you EVER agree with anyone? And what is above post? It is not interesting and does not further the discussion.

And you have 12,000 frigging posts like this.? Geez.

 

[habalifeok]

A long way away unless a few of the forwards start producing. Our top forward is nowhere in top what, 70?
We need to get lucky like say Dallas who all of a sudden have 2 in the top 10.
Absolutely no scoring on the horizon from our farm system.
Andriggehto maybe?