justafan22
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- Jun 22, 2014
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Speculation: How does the Senators decision on their own draft pick affect their offseason plans?
- Thread starter justafan22
- Start date
≤5 = keeping the pick
5-7 = probably keeping the pick
8-9 = now, we're talking (on HFBoards, at least)
5-7 = probably keeping the pick
8-9 = now, we're talking (on HFBoards, at least)
Sends a really bad message to the team if it’s a top pick and they give it away. Essentially is saying they expect to be worst next year
IMO looking at the Sens roster and watching a few games this season, I'd say if it's top 5, they definitely keep it and try to be a bubble team next year, if its 6/7 they may think one of those 3 dman are ready and do the same as above. If its 8-10 they obviously give it up and try getting one back at the draft table, I honestly think Ott gave up to much for a Duchene-Turris swap. But if EK goes so does Duchene js
If the Sens make solid adjustments, we're back in the playoff picture. The question is whether Dorion has the ability to make the right decisions to positively impact our roster. Recently, we almost traded Hoffman and Karlsson. It leads me to think Dorion isn't able to make the right decisions. Plus, Melnyk is too involved with management so he'll just want to cut salary. We're hopeful that Gaborik retires after this year and Burrows is bought out.
We're missing the following; a 2C, 2LW, 1LD, and a 4RW.
Mike Hoffman - Matt Duchene - Mark Stone
????? - ????? - Bobby Ryan
Zack Smith - Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Ryan Dzingel
Tom Pyatt - Colin White - ?????
????? - Erik Karlsson
Thomas Chabot - Cody Ceci
Frederik Claesson - Chris Wideman
Borowiecki/Harpur
Craig Anderson
Mike Condon
We're missing the following; a 2C, 2LW, 1LD, and a 4RW.
Mike Hoffman - Matt Duchene - Mark Stone
????? - ????? - Bobby Ryan
Zack Smith - Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Ryan Dzingel
Tom Pyatt - Colin White - ?????
????? - Erik Karlsson
Thomas Chabot - Cody Ceci
Frederik Claesson - Chris Wideman
Borowiecki/Harpur
Craig Anderson
Mike Condon
Clamshells
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If goaltending returns to even moderately competent, combined with the forward roster re-finding their chemistry as they have been building on for the last two months, and Karlsson staying the whole year (injury free) then this team should compete for a playoff spot and the pick should be lower next year.
People seem to think that teams move forward in a singular trajectory, and that if they were bad this year they must be bad next year. That's not how hockey works. Keep the 2018 pick, trade the 2019 pick regardless of the lottery.
People seem to think that teams move forward in a singular trajectory, and that if they were bad this year they must be bad next year. That's not how hockey works. Keep the 2018 pick, trade the 2019 pick regardless of the lottery.
Dorion has made solid moves so far minus Burrows, with the conditions that Melnyk has imposed. I don't mind trading Hoffman depending on the package, same for Karlsson.
The future of the Sens is Chabot, Duchene, and Stone. I get the feeling Karlsson is gone.
We keep the pick. We are hopefully getting top 5, maybe better.
Cypher
Registered User
Say it's 3rd overall, would Ottawa do:
To Col
Ottawa's 2018 1st round pick (3rd overall)
To Ott
Ottawa's 2019 1st round pick (could be #1 overall, could be 31st, who knows)
Colorado's 2018 1st round Pick (let's say, 15th overall, based on current standings)
Ottawa's 2019 3rd round pick
To Col
Ottawa's 2018 1st round pick (3rd overall)
To Ott
Ottawa's 2019 1st round pick (could be #1 overall, could be 31st, who knows)
Colorado's 2018 1st round Pick (let's say, 15th overall, based on current standings)
Ottawa's 2019 3rd round pick
Shruggs Peterson
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- Mar 1, 2017
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Mickey Marner
Registered User
They should decide what to do with Karlsson before they decide whether or not to keep the pick.
Uncle Scrooge
Hockey Bettor
I think if they keep the pick, which i think they will, they've got no choice but to try and improve the team any way they can this off-season, and not subtract from it. Would make no sense just sitting on your ass, crossing your fingers and hoping the young guys get better and carry the team to playoff contention.
So yeah i think it does, they'll be active. What they can actually pull off is another thing.
So yeah i think it does, they'll be active. What they can actually pull off is another thing.
izzy
go
keep the pick unless they expect to die completely and finish bottom 3 next year (which shouldnt happen with that roster)
Extra Texture
A new career
This was the same situation faced by the Islanders a few years ago.
-Traded for Vanek, sending their 1st (2014 OR 2015) to Buffalo.
-Had a terrible season, finished dead last in the division despite picking him up (and sent him to Montreal at the TDL, cutting their losses)
-Got the 5th overall pick, and kept it (drafting Dal Colle)
-Next season they made the playoffs and their first was 21 overall
So the Isles made the calculation "we can hardly be worse worse next season" and it paid off for them. I don't know if the Sens will definitely be a playoff team next year, but I think they will follow the same course of action, keep this years pick (assuming its top 5) and look to next year.
The critical difference, of course, is that the Islanders had a team full of up-and-coming young talent, but underperformed. Ottawa has definitely underperformed this year, and clearly had an anomalous run after they first traded for Duchene, but the EK situation is clearly a massive cloud hanging over them. If they are going to move him, and do it before the season they're essentially waving a white flag and signaling a major retool/rebuild. If they keep him for the year or until the TDL (assuming they won't extend him) they're killing his trade value.
That's a tough situation. With the same roster, I don't see them being this bad again.
-Traded for Vanek, sending their 1st (2014 OR 2015) to Buffalo.
-Had a terrible season, finished dead last in the division despite picking him up (and sent him to Montreal at the TDL, cutting their losses)
-Got the 5th overall pick, and kept it (drafting Dal Colle)
-Next season they made the playoffs and their first was 21 overall
So the Isles made the calculation "we can hardly be worse worse next season" and it paid off for them. I don't know if the Sens will definitely be a playoff team next year, but I think they will follow the same course of action, keep this years pick (assuming its top 5) and look to next year.
The critical difference, of course, is that the Islanders had a team full of up-and-coming young talent, but underperformed. Ottawa has definitely underperformed this year, and clearly had an anomalous run after they first traded for Duchene, but the EK situation is clearly a massive cloud hanging over them. If they are going to move him, and do it before the season they're essentially waving a white flag and signaling a major retool/rebuild. If they keep him for the year or until the TDL (assuming they won't extend him) they're killing his trade value.
That's a tough situation. With the same roster, I don't see them being this bad again.
TkachukNorris79
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- Jan 27, 2018
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Ouroboros
There is no armour against Fate
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The Sens are 6-10-1 since the trade deadline so I don't think there is any concern about winning out, especially if Karlsson doesn't travel with the team for their final three games.
If they end up with a top 5 pick there is just no discussion to be had - they're keeping it. They haven't drafted that high in 17 years and they desperately need an infusion of young talent. Even if they're terrible again next season, the teams that finish 3rd, 4th and 5th last are more likely to move back in the draft order than not. Finishing dead last gives them coinflip odds at moving to 4th. It's simply too hard to secure a top 5 pick in the new system - you can't give it up if you have it guaranteed.
The decision probably gets interesting somewhere around 7th or 8th overall and even then I wouldn't be surprised if they kept it.
If they end up with a top 5 pick there is just no discussion to be had - they're keeping it. They haven't drafted that high in 17 years and they desperately need an infusion of young talent. Even if they're terrible again next season, the teams that finish 3rd, 4th and 5th last are more likely to move back in the draft order than not. Finishing dead last gives them coinflip odds at moving to 4th. It's simply too hard to secure a top 5 pick in the new system - you can't give it up if you have it guaranteed.
The decision probably gets interesting somewhere around 7th or 8th overall and even then I wouldn't be surprised if they kept it.
Finnish your Czech
J'aime Les offres hostiles
SI90
Registered User
Hellraising Senator
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I would say it would be down to the wire, depends if who they like is on the board, with picks 4-10 up in the air at the moment with none standing out above the rest of the class.
danielpalfredsson
youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
- Aug 14, 2013
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They've already started with their spin of how they'll sell giving the pick away.
Pierre Dorion said that they still need to do their final meetings with their scouting team, but he thinks there's a certain point in the top 10 where they would consider giving it away not because they think they'll be bad next year, but because even if they intend to make the playoffs, they could miss by 1 point and win the draft lottery.
I don't think that's the truth, but it's how the Senators are selling it. I think the truth is, that if the Senators give up the pick, it'll be because they expect to be in a rebuild next year in conjunction with a Karlsson trade. I find it unfathomable that we'd give up say the 7th overall pick if we expect to re-sign Karlsson because even if we end up in the 12-15 type range and miss the playoffs, we'll have something like a 90+ percent chance of not winning a top 3 pick.
If we're trading Karlsson and rebuilding, it makes sense to me to give up anything in the 6-10 range because the chance that we are in at least that range next year (or higher in the draft order) is a lot greater than the chance we finish 11-31.
And a #1 goalie.
Add that all up and that's quite a shopping list for a team without a lot of tradable assets and on a shoestring budget.
Shruggs Peterson
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There's not much that can be done about the position right now since the Sens signed Anderson to a two year extension prior to the season starting. Add to that Condon is also sticking around for another 2 years to tandem is set, justified or not. Gustavsson and maybe Hogberg form the succession plan but I don't see the Sens in the market for a goalie.
Also it's not so much a shopping list as a ''position that can be filled internally'', something the Sens have done to fill roster spots for sometime. Only position I think the Sens would potentially look for via free agency is the 1LD position, with Calvin De Haan being an ideal target to partner with EK if he stays. The rest will probably be filled by the farm and maybe in the draft if they get a pick from #2-4.
