Rumor: Horvat for Buchnevich?

[Izzy Goodenough]

What of the Horvat for Buchnevich trade rumour?



It was noted that Horvat's offensive performance has successively decreased over the past 3 years but it is still hard to imagine them doing a 1:1 in a deal of centre for a winger when the Centre is also a captain.



Ranger's would likely have to add.

Also, other teams are desperately looking for Centres like CBJ, so there should be some competitive options if Horvat is actually on the open market.

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[OilersCoffeeArtBeer]

Vancouver would be stupid to do this.

 

[Ottobot]

What is this shit

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Vancouver would be stupid to do this.

The only reason I see them doing this is to pair Buchnevich with Podzilla at Centre; as tried by Larionov and suggested by his St. Petes coach.

Again, to make this work, the Rangers would have to add in my opinion.

 

[MS]

Oh, look. More of those stupid WAR graphs. These things are like a plague at this point and are the equivalent of the anti-vax ‘evidence’ your one stupid friend keeps posting on Facebook.

 

[DonnyNucker]

What of the Horvat for Buchnevich trade rumour?



It was noted that Horvat's offensive performance has successively decreased over the past 3 years but it is still hard to imagine them doing a 1:1 in a deal of centre for a winger when the Centre is also a captain.



Ranger's would likely have to add.

Also, other teams are desperately looking for Centres like CBJ, so there should be some competitive options if Horvat is actually on the open market.

Close this thread. Embarrassing man

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Oh, look. More of those stupid WAR graphs. These things are like a plague at this point and are the equivalent of the anti-vax ‘evidence’ your one stupid friend keeps posting on Facebook.

Except Horvat's offensive output does appear to be decreasing over the past three years and WAR does capture this.

When I checked on CapFriendly I was surprised by this.

Bo Horvat Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Close this thread. Embarrassing man

It is already a big 'thing' on the InterWeb so closing the thread would just stop the conversation here but not elsewhere.

 

[CherryToke]

Oh, look. More of those stupid WAR graphs. These things are like a plague at this point and are the equivalent of the anti-vax ‘evidence’ your one stupid friend keeps posting on Facebook.

Yeah man.. this shit doesn't work for hockey

 

[MS]

Except Horvat's offensive output does appear to be decreasing over the past three years and WAR does capture this.

When I checked on CapFriendly I was surprised by this.

Bo Horvat Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

18-19 - 40 ES points/82 GP

19-20 - 44 ES points/82 GP (and then a big offensive performance in the bubble)

20-21 - 40 ES points/82 GP while chained to a boat anchor in Tanner Pearson.

On-ice shooting % nearly identical in all 3 years.

Not seeing it. If anything, the fact that he basically maintained his 19-20 production while Pearson fell off a cliff and he was taking extra defensive responsibilities is damned impressive.

 

[MS]

Yeah man.. this shit doesn't work for hockey

It’s absolute garbage that is both statistically flawed in how it’s calculated and doesn’t reflect context remotely correctly.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

A random blog rumor?

 

[Sweetpotato]

This smells like NYRs offered this and Benning laughed at it.

With that said, I wouldn't out anything past Benning but this would be monumentally terrible.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Average changes of NHL WAR stats in relation to age do reflect reality.




A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

 

[MS]

This smells like NYRs offered this and Benning laughed at it.

With that said, I wouldn't out anything past Benning but this would be monumentally terrible.

Benning is capable of doing shit that is stupid beyond belief but there is no way that they would trade their highly popular team captain at a point where the fanbase is already close to revolt.

 

[MS]

View attachment 453770 Average changes of NHL WAR stats in relation to age do reflect reality.




A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

I mean, you’d get exactly the same curve just by putting raw offensive production vs. age into a graph.

Horvat has probably peaked. But I don’t see any evidence he’s going (or about to go) into an offensive death spiral.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

I've accepted who Ben Greening are: capable of pretty much infinite irrational decisions.

My hope is that someone in the Org pointed out to them that Dickinson is a metrics darling and they finally actually acted on this sort of info.

Maybe, just maybe the Nerds are taking over; seems unlikely though.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Rangers almost made out like bandits. Horvat-Zibanejad is a solid one-two punch and they're deep at wing.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

I mean, you’d get exactly the same curve just by putting raw offensive production vs. age into a graph.

Horvat has probably peaked. But I don’t see any evidence he’s going (or about to go) into an offensive death spiral.

But, it appears that Horvat's output is going down from just charting his points output for 3 years.

It could be argued though, that his trade value has not decreased.

As I said, I wouldn't do a 1:1 deal but every player, even a captain, has a replacement acquisition price.

 

[BrilliantBroReferee]

I mean Horvat is the last player from the Gillis era. I would not be surprised if he is traded.

 

[krutovsdonut]

what a bizarre rumour.

 

[MS]

But, it appears that Horvat's output is going down from just charting his points output for 3 years.

It could be argued though, that his trade value has not decreased.

As I said, I wouldn't do a 1:1 deal but every player, even a captain, has a replacement acquisition price.

But, again, it doesn’t appear that way at all?

His ES production is astonishingly consistent over the past 5 years. I don’t know if you’ll find anyone more consistent in the NHL - it’s right at 40 ESP/82 GP every year.

And when you factor in context - Pearson falling off a cliff and our mess at C last year that forced him into more defensive minutes - the fact he didn’t drop off more is actually very impressive.

 

[Canucker]

I've got no issue with trading Horvat, but I would really hope that they were trying to use him to fix our horrible defense if they were intent on moving him.

 

[Peen]

what a bizarre rumour.

I don’t think it’s that bizarre.

If you read between the lines and look at Horvat’s tone, it seems he has been fairly displeased.

I wouldn’t do the trade personally but I can understand why any players except EP and Demko would come up. Same way the Boeser stuff has never surprised me.

Edit: Hoglander should also be an instant hang up.

 

[Peen]

I've got no issue with trading Horvat, but I would really hope that they were trying to use him to fix our horrible defense if they were intent on moving him.

There’s nothing you could move Horvat for that wouldn’t be creating a new hole to plug another unless they bet on futures and those futures provided instant returns.