Helene St. James Holland (probably) Won't Re-Sign Quincey, Richards (before July 1st (if at all))

[Pavels Dog]

Depends on whether you're basing your estimates on what he's already done or on what you think he's going to do.

If we're just looking at rolling averages, that's a totally different thing than making marginally educated guesses on what he'll do next year.

Neither of those protocols carry any assumption of accuracy with them.

If I'm setting some kind of betting over under with Nyquist, I'd say something like 19 goals and 32 assists. I think numbers right around there would get a fair distribution of people betting on both sides.

Well if a guy has done something for 90% of his career I think it's an educated guess to say the 10% where he struggled may not be the norm going forward especially when our entire team also struggled offensively this season. 19+32, ehh maybe if we barely upgrade our roster and continue to ice a bad PP and play Gus like a 3rd liner.

Just don't be surprised if we trade Gus to STL/ANA and all of a sudden he scores 30+.

 

[Mijatovic]

Well Gus needs to play like he was 2 years ago. Driving his own line!

 

[HockeyinHD]

Well if a guy has done something for 90% of his career I think it's an educated guess to say the 10% where he struggled may not be the norm going forward especially when our entire team also struggled offensively this season.

Even if you're just looking at his totals in a wholly statistical sense, you're sort of forcing yourself to make some shaky assumptions:

-That a pronounced trend line downwards from year 1 through year 3 will reverse.

-That he will continue to play 100% of the available games.

Also, we can say Nyquist 'did x' for 90% of his career when we take a raw statistical average, but if you break it down and apply a trend line to it, maybe not.

Per 82 games, Nyquist has averaged 23 goals. If all you do is hold back his 23 goal in 28 game stretch in 13-14, that number falls to 18.6.

Now yes, if all you do is cut out a players best stretch of course you can create worse numbers for him. Obviously. If all you do is cut out his worst stretch you can improve them. The reason I'm bringing it up, however, is to discuss the notion of exactly how much of his 90% we are really looking at.

Is that 28 game window where he was on a 67 goals/82 games stretch Nyquist, or is it the other 233 where he's been on a 19 goal/82 game pace?

Maybe statistically we can have it both ways and say he's actually both players. Someday he'll go on another streak so for a while he'll look like he underperforming but then 1 or 3 or 5 years down the road he'll go solar again and 'catch up'.

In terms of assessment or planning, though, I don't realistically see how one can think this year is the year that bump happens.

 

[Shaman464]

Even if you're just looking at his totals in a wholly statistical sense, you're sort of forcing yourself to make some shaky assumptions:

-That a pronounced trend line downwards from year 1 through year 3 will reverse.

-That he will continue to play 100% of the available games.

Also, we can say Nyquist 'did x' for 90% of his career when we take a raw statistical average, but if you break it down and apply a trend line to it, maybe not.

Per 82 games, Nyquist has averaged 23 goals. If all you do is hold back his 23 goal in 28 game stretch in 13-14, that number falls to 18.6.

Now yes, if all you do is cut out a players best stretch of course you can create worse numbers for him. Obviously. If all you do is cut out his worst stretch you can improve them. The reason I'm bringing it up, however, is to discuss the notion of exactly how much of his 90% we are really looking at.

Is that 28 game window where he was on a 67 goals/82 games stretch Nyquist, or is it the other 233 where he's been on a 19 goal/82 game pace?

Maybe statistically we can have it both ways and say he's actually both players. Someday he'll go on another streak so for a while he'll look like he underperforming but then 1 or 3 or 5 years down the road he'll go solar again and 'catch up'.

In terms of assessment or planning, though, I don't realistically see how one can think this year is the year that bump happens.

The reason this happens is that it's hard for the other team to plan for unknown unknowns. The chances of Nyquist scoring 23 in 28 were low, and teams had to plan accordingly. By the time the playoffs rolled around they had a game plan for Gus, they took away his time and space and he was rendered much less effective. I would bet cash money that the same thing happens to AA if he's up for a long stretch next season. If he's getting those long passes and burning the D the D will play less man to man with him and more prevent. Unless AA can adjust he may see his scoring tick down after awhile. Same thing with Pookie, the other teams know he has a big shot, and that he's not being utilized in such a way he can use it so they plan for him to between the dots by putting a defender on him.

It takes special talents to go for long stretches making professional team's defenses look bad. And even the most special players (Crosby, Ovie et al) can be neutralized to an extent with the right players and the right plans (Crosby vs Z 2008 is a perfect example).

 

[ricky0034]

Nyquist just needs to click with the powerplay again next year and he'll be fine

he actually had more even strength points this year than he did last year


I feel MUCH better about him going forward than Tatar

 

[Pavels Dog]

Per 82 games, Nyquist has averaged 23 goals. If all you do is hold back his 23 goal in 28 game stretch in 13-14, that number falls to 18.6.

Is that 28 game window where he was on a 67 goals/82 games stretch Nyquist, or is it the other 233 where he's been on a 19 goal/82 game pace?

This is an absolutely hilarious mis-representation of statistics and trying to make Nyquist look worse.

You could have made your point while also being somewhat fair. If you don't think he'll repeat that 28 game stretch ("let's imagine he was terrible for the rest of that season") that's okay, but you think he'll repeat the 4 goals in 40 games he had as a call-up before that? You seem to think it's worth including in those 233 games.

Trying to paint reality as being Nyquist is on a downward trajectory ignores all context. Such as the rest of the team also struggling offensively this year. If you put his numbers in context with Dats/Z/Tatar/etc you see that Nyquist had almost the exact same decrease in his point totals as many others on the team.
And another thing; Nyquist's icetime decreased by well over a minute this year. Blame it on Larkin "stealing" his top 6 spot, blame it on Blashill not trusting him as much as Babs, blame it on Nyquist himself.. but icetime is an important factor in production. Nyquist had a P/60 that was only behind Tatar and Datsyuk among our regulars and a G/60 that was only behind Larkin and Tatar (not including those with less than 40 games).

It's not total coincidence he goes to the WHC and scores 7 goals in 8 games and looks like the standout star player on that swedish roster. He can score goals. Just don't expect him to score 30 of them if you give him 3rd line minutes with Riley Sheahan instead of top-6 minutes with Henrik Zetterberg.

 

[Henkka]

Well Gus needs to play like he was 2 years ago. Driving his own line!

Or the PP just have to score.

There was nothing wrong on Nyquist's ES goals/60 or points/60. More of, those numbers were slightly trending up from 2014-15.

Nyquist's power-play points were missing at last season. Nothing else.


http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/2/23/11099254/whats-wrong-with-gustav-nyquist

 

[Classicnamesup]

And he gets a ton of PPTOI

 

[sarcastro]

If this team can ever transition to a proper high event offensive team the way they are going to have to if they want to ever win again, Nyquist could be absolutely lethal for them. Tatar is not as dynamic and maxes out at 30 goals, with his average being around 23-25.

Nyquist could score 40 in the right system.

 

[Henkka]

If this team can ever transition to a proper high event offensive team the way they are going to have to if they want to ever win again, Nyquist could be absolutely lethal for them. Tatar is not as dynamic and maxes out at 30 goals, with his average being around 23-25.

Nyquist could score 40 in the right system.

Nyquist would score a lot more if we would have great puckmoving defenceman giving great 1st passes / power-play quarterback like Shattenkirk on this team.

But we probably have to trade Nyquist to get that guy.

Time to sign and trade.

Sign Radulov, then trading a winger becomes ideal (nyquist/tatar).

Sign other depth. Sign free assets and then trade other valueable assets (Nyquist/Tatar, Sheahan, Ouellet/Sproul, picks) for assets harder to get. Like a defenceman.

If we won't get any free assts, trading becomes almost impossible. Because we need current assets, when Pavel is walking out.

 

[Shaman464]

If this team can ever transition to a proper high event offensive team the way they are going to have to if they want to ever win again, Nyquist could be absolutely lethal for them. Tatar is not as dynamic and maxes out at 30 goals, with his average being around 23-25.

Nyquist could score 40 in the right system.

Nyquist couldn't score 40 if he was spotted 8 goals to start with. His drop in scoring coincided with other teams forcing him to the perimeter and playing him physical. He doesn't have the strength to be 40 goal scorer.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Nyquist couldn't score 40 if he was spotted 8 goals to start with. His drop in scoring coincided with other teams forcing him to the perimeter and playing him physical. He doesn't have the strength to be 40 goal scorer.

Yeah i just don't see it. Z and Datsyuk in their prime had Lidstrom moving the puck and Z only cracked 40+ goals one season. You can argue that the Wings had too much depth for one player to consistently score 40 goals, but Nyquist isn't half as good as Z/D and he will never get to play with a defenseman as talented as Lidstrom.

There were four 40+ goal players last season.

Ovi
Kane
Benn
Tarasenko

Nyquist isn't even close to being on the same level as any of those players.

 

[jaster]

I like Nyquist, but he'll never sniff 40 goals. He's a 30-goal guy, max. I think if the Wings can get their PP back in order, you're looking at a pretty reliable 25-goal guy for a few years, until he begins to leave his prime.

 

[HockeyinHD]

This is an absolutely hilarious mis-representation of statistics and trying to make Nyquist look worse.

I pointed that out, which you snipped, as well as the reason why I did it, which you also snipped.

You could have made your point while also being somewhat fair. If you don't think he'll repeat that 28 game stretch ("let's imagine he was terrible for the rest of that season") that's okay, but you think he'll repeat the 4 goals in 40 games he had as a call-up before that? You seem to think it's worth including in those 233 games.

A) I used two periods in rebuttal to your '90%' comment to point out that his broad average of production isn't perhaps as reflective of his year to year production as one may believe.

B) Will he repeat 4 goals in 40 games? He scored 5 goals in 44 games this year from 12/22 to the end of the regular season. If you want to be sneaky we can throw in the first 3 playoff games and make in 5 in 47.

Trying to paint reality as being Nyquist is on a downward trajectory ignores all context.

Not really, unless you're going to make the simultaneous argument that the primary reason Nyquist was better before was the actions of others. Then it's not an issue of context, but of relevance.

Such as the rest of the team also struggling offensively this year. If you put his numbers in context with Dats/Z/Tatar/etc you see that Nyquist had almost the exact same decrease in his point totals as many others on the team.

... and I think there's a decent case to be made that Datsyuk, Z, Tatar and others played worse this year than they did last year. That a number of players also played less well does not mean another one did not.

And another thing; Nyquist's icetime decreased by well over a minute this year. Blame it on Larkin "stealing" his top 6 spot, blame it on Blashill not trusting him as much as Babs, blame it on Nyquist himself.. but icetime is an important factor in production.

That's a rather circuitous method for excusing underperformance. If I'm suggesting that his play is on a decline, and he's playing less in a subsequent season, which depresses his point totals... isn't that sort of how that is supposed to work?

Nyquist had a P/60 that was only behind Tatar and Datsyuk among our regulars and a G/60 that was only behind Larkin and Tatar (not including those with less than 40 games).

It's not total coincidence he goes to the WHC and scores 7 goals in 8 games and looks like the standout star player on that swedish roster. He can score goals. Just don't expect him to score 30 of them if you give him 3rd line minutes with Riley Sheahan instead of top-6 minutes with Henrik Zetterberg.

Would you say that playing against depth opposition serves as an aid to the P/60 and G/60 stats you just used as examples of support for an argument that his linemates hurt him?

And, to re-state, this only serves as a rebuttal to your expression that Nyquist has 'done it for 90% of his career'. I've merely been pointing out that's definitively not so. For the vast majority of his career he's been a 19ish goal guy.

Just to be clear here, there's nothing wrong with that. I'm not implying him being a 19-21 goal guy is pejorative in any way.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Nyquist could score 40, but he'd have to be the only little guy on the line. He badly needs other players to find space for him.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Thanks. Now if he could get rid of Howard and Ericsson as well.

The only way you're getting rid of Howard is to eat 50% of his contract, And Ericsson would've to be a buy out.

 

[Henkka]

Would be now very very smart to trade a package like Tatar, Sheahan and Ouellet (+pick) for one quality piece like Shattenkirk when considering the expansion draft.

Most probably teams are allowed to protect 11 players + 1 goalie under 2 seasons of pro experience. Mantha and Athanasiou then has to be protected, and only Larkin is safe without protection.

At Current situation, I would protect:

1. Zetterberg
2. Nyquist
3. Abdelkader
4. Tatar
5. Sheahan
(Larkin, only 2-year pro experience after next season, safe)
6. Mantha (over 2-year pro experience at june 2017)
7. Athanasiou (over 2-year pro experience at june 2017)
------------
unprotected
8. Franzen LTIR
9. Glendening
10. Miller
11. Pulkkinen
12. Jurco
13. Nosek
14. Miele


1. Kronwall
2. Green
3. DeKeyser
4. Marchenko
------------
unprotected
5. Ericsson
6. Smith
7. Ouellet
8. Sproul
9. Jensen

1. Mrazek
------------
unprotected
2. Howard

Trade Smith away somwhere at this season before the expansion draft, so he isn't there as an attractive piece. Also Ouellet goes away, so it takes out a possibility Las Vegas could be interested in him. Trading Tatar and Sheahan will open two spots, and another goes for "Shattenkirk". Then another could go to UFA, if we get somebody at this summer.

After trades:

1. Zetterberg
2. Nyquist
3. Abdelkader
4. SOME UFA
(Larkin, 2-year ELC, safe)
5. Mantha
6. Athanasiou
------------
unprotected
7. Franzen LTIR
8. Glendening
9. Miller?
10. Pulkkinen
11. Jurco
12. Nosek
13. Miele


1. "Shattenkirk"
2. Kronwall
3. Green
4. DeKeyser
5. Marchenko
------------
unprotected
6. Ericsson
7. Sproul
8. Jensen

1. Mrazek
------------
unprotected
2. Howard

There there would not be anything very interesting left, and we would extremely happy if Las Vegas claims Ericsson or Howard just to fill their cap hits to cap floor.

Would be a party time!

EDIT:

To build roster for this 2016-17 season before the expansion draft, go with 1-year UFAs (who will walk away anyway before the expansion draft), and/or bring in under 2-year pro experience kids (like Bertuzzi, Russo).

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Nyquist could score 40, but he'd have to be the only little guy on the line. He badly needs other players to find space for him.

No, he will never score 40 goals. Ignoring how difficult it is to actually score 40 goals in today's game, people are forgetting that Gus has become a pass-first player. You need to shoot the puck a hell of a lot more than he does to score 40 goals.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Nyquist could score 40, but he'd have to be the only little guy on the line. He badly needs other players to find space for him.

No way will Nyquist ever score 40 goals, At best maybe between 30 to 33 at best and for one season.

 

[SimplySolace]

No way will Nyquist ever score 40 goals, At best maybe between 30 to 33 at best and for one season.

Yeah, but what about at best?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No, he will never score 40 goals. Ignoring how difficult it is to actually score 40 goals in today's game, people are forgetting that Gus has become a pass-first player. You need to shoot the puck a hell of a lot more than he does to score 40 goals.

Become? He's ALWAYS been a pass-first player. His hot scoring streak when he was shooting all the time? That was the anomaly in his play. That is where he is one of the guys who might actually improve if Datsyuk leaves. Because he'll actually realize that he's gotta shoot the puck to score goals.

Leave him no choice but to drive his own line and he's shown he has the capability to do it, even if only for a little while.

 

[Shaman464]

Kronwall should not be protected, nor should Z. No team will touch them anyway though, so free spots to protect other players.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Become? He's ALWAYS been a pass-first player. His hot scoring streak when he was shooting all the time? That was the anomaly in his play. That is where he is one of the guys who might actually improve if Datsyuk leaves. Because he'll actually realize that he's gotta shoot the puck to score goals.

Leave him no choice but to drive his own line and he's shown he has the capability to do it, even if only for a little while.

Very true, but I thought this became an even bigger issue last season when Gus consistently held onto the puck too long and refused to shoot it. This wasn't simply an issue of being a pass-first player in my opinion. I agree though that he needs to change his mentality to really increase his goal production.

What exactly does being forced to drive his line look like in terms of line combinations with this organization?

 

[obey86]

Kronwall should not be protected, nor should Z. No team will touch them anyway though, so free spots to protect other players.

Exactly. If you tried to give away Z and Kronwall this offseason for free with their current remaining contract no one would take them. There's no point in protecting them in an expansion draft.

 

[Henkka]

Exactly. If you tried to give away Z and Kronwall this offseason for free with their current remaining contract no one would take them. There's no point in protecting them in an expansion draft.

You guys are overanalyzing a bit.

They will be protected as first guys. They are our team leaders.