Jay Thompson said:
Messenger, you perhaps didn't read my post, or I am not doing a very good job explaining things. Organizational rankings for the teams are NOT based on potential alone. This ranking here obviously put potential on a higher slate than most team pages have their rankings at. It's a completely different situation.
And no, I would not take King over Crosby. I would however take King over Kesler, or King over F. Fedorov, or King over Kirrill Koltsov, because while he is not as skilled as them, it's not a big gap, and the fact that he is closer to the NHL shows me that he's made the leaps that the others have yet to make.
Take a bust for example: Pavel Brendl is a good example. Say you were to compare Brendl to say, Robyn Regehr if we did this after the draft in 1999. Regehr is closer to the NHL, but Brendl looks like he could be a super star or he could bust. Who do you put ahead? On a ranking like this, you might put Brendl ahead, but on a team ranking I would place Regehr ahead, since while Brendl is more talented, it's not a *massive* gap either, and Regehr is so close to being in the NHL. What Regehr has proven over Brendl is that he's made the leaps to become an NHL player whereas Brendl is less proven.
This does not mean we ignore potential all-together. Myself and Sukhwinder tried to balance the two factors (closeness to the NHL & potential) when we came up with our list.
The very fact that Auld has made those 'leaps' that other goaltenders is important to me when I do my rankings. That said, this ranking it looks like did NOT put the emphasis on closeness-to-the-NHL that the team rankings did. Therein lies the difference, Messenger.
Furthermore, when it comes to Auld, we projects to be a starting goaltender, not a 'good NHL backup'. We are not the only people to do this either, several other scouting websites project similar things for Auld (one website lists him as the Canucks top prospect, for example, ahead of Corey Schneider who has more potential).
You Nucks site must be one of the few that puts emphasis on Closeness to the NHL ... I never even heard of that stat or figure into PROSPECT PROJECTIONS .. in all my years ..
These rankings and others is based on what the player is going to expected to perform at once he gets to the NHL.....not the timing when that is going to occur so then you would always rank an AHL prospect ahead of and CHL (junior) one based on CLOSENESS ....
You can't base that on anything factual either ... If Nucks training camp was to happen now and Auld and Schneider went head to head in a battle for the backup job and the more talented Schneider wins the battle ..your CLOSENESS point is irrelevant ... Do you believe teams in a fair and open competition take the lesser player or the better player ?? and Explain the drafting of Schneider in the first place ?? They lost Umberger (2001) , 2002 (traded), and now the 2004 draft comes up and Canucks have only Kelser to show in the prior years and Nucks take a goalie in the 1st round with your Auld already ranked as your NEXT #1 keeper.. combined with the fact the nucks gave away their 2nd to get Hedberg as a short term rental.. To me this goes not look like Nucks management is thinking along your lines ...
Team pass on Franchise goalies in the 1st round all the time in order to take a different one if they feel they already have one in the near future .. Washington, Pitts, Atl, etc etc all passed on goalies ...but not the Canucks ...Why ??
Also by your flawed logic IMO ..
Tell me the difference between Tellqvist and Auld in the closeness stat ... and rankings as both are scheduled to replace the current teams starter eventually ..
also If Leafs would have drafted potential Franchise goalie AL Montoya as a hypothical last season to find their goalie of the future ... Your rankings in a TOP prospect list would always have Telly ahead and rated higher because of the closeness factor and what he has accomplished...
That just does not make any sense to me .. ??? An NHL Entry draft and selection is always Based on BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE theory .... and teams take players they think will be the greatest reward.. they don't rank them as Closeness to the NHL .. neither does any Scouting Service ... Closeness is all relevant to surroundings as well and circumstances a prospect can't control ..If NJ drafted Montoya while having Brodeur as is STAR GOALIE .. then Montoya Closeness would be different than had he been drafted as a LEAF or NUCK in this case ..
but you did help explain the team rankings now if you are using this made up Closeness thing .. Nucks top 4 prospects are all in the AHL currently .. So they could be called up to the NHL at any time .. Teams whose top picks and prospects are still in Junior or College or Europe are ranked lower because of Closeness ..
I would love for you to show me any professional scouting source .. CSB, Redline, ISS, HOCKEY NEWS , etc etc etc .. that discusses this Closeness theory ...
I would rather have a player that is going to make the NHL in 5 years and produce 80+ points a season then one that will make the NHL in 1 year and record 40 points consistently.
Taking King over Kesler makes no sense to me unless you only believe KING is the better player ..not now but in the future as well... He is 5 years older than Kesler so obviously he is more mature both Physically and Mentally TODAY ... but that is not necessarily true when you project where Kesler will be in 5 years of development..