Hockey Analytics and the Edmonton Oilers. Does it even exist?

[TheNumber4]

Off season is upon us. Lots of moves to be made, picks to be taken, players signed etc to try to improve this team. Some have even called it the MOST Important off-season in a long time.

I look at some of these powerhouses still battling it out in these playoffs and many (maybe all) have heavily invested in analytics and a data-driven approach to decision making. Teams like Tampa, Carolina, Boston, Toronto, Colorado, have all invested heavily into analytics and I think the results speak for themselves. Other teams are starting to invest in analytics heavier like the Kings and Stars and those results are also starting to show.

Now onto the Oilers, at one point we had some local blogger (Tyler Dellow) who was heading analytics. I guess he butt heads with the eye test people too much as we didn't retain him and he moved onto New Jersey.

Now, I have no idea what analytics capability this organization has, if any. And it's worrying to say the least. We have an Old School GM in Holland and we HOPE that his years experience can help us compete. But can his years of experience compete with millions of dollars sunk in by our competition to gain analytical insights into players/prospects that we probably have no idea of? This organization is failing again if we don't have an analytics game plan in place. We are already way behind the 8-ball compared to big market teams in that we have near zero free agency attractiveness. If anything, we should be doubling what other teams are spending in analytics to give us a chance to even the play field.

The results speak for themselves. We literally have no impact players that weren't acquired in the 1st round. Later round picks, Euro free agents, NHL free agents, have brought some mediocre players in that really can be replaced quite easily. Meanwhile the power houses of this league are getting impact players in later draft rounds and have some home run picks. I don't think its luck or coincidence that these teams are finding the better players, these teams put in the effort to gather the necessary data to make better decisions than us. We don't seem to be even close.

You would think that Katz being a science driven guy with labs, and data, and plenty analysis going on at his businesses he would see the value of hockey analytics and invest heavy. But he also seems to be a bit of a fan boy... so maybe hes putting too much trust into the weary eyes and opinions of the OBC plus Hollands Detroit Imported OBCs.

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[ConnorMcMullet]

Yep. This organization thinks they're still in the 80s.

 

[McDrai]

One of my suggestions to improve the team and to sustain long term success was to heavily invest in a hockey analytics department. A lot of the good teams as you stated are big into hockey analytics and it seems like we are always behind the curve.

I believe all of the Oilers management are stuck in the past and are not open to analytics, which means that we are going off of the good old eye test. I'm not saying that is bad, but ideal scenario is to use the data to either confirm or dispute what you have seen. It just gives you extra insurance so to speak. Just look at our past transactions and signings to see how truly terrible we have been in bringing in players who could make a positive impact. We must surely be bottom 3 in the league in the last decade in this regard.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Tippett has mentioned on numerous times about the analytics reports he gets daily.

What his reports / 60 is I have no idea

 

[thadd]

While I do think it's relevant to have a guy that's good with numbers and stats, it's very possible that someone else is actually doing that job while carrying another job title.

Yep. This organization thinks they're still in the 80s.

Yeah like we don't even have our own farm team... wait... no that's not it...

And our farm team doesn't produce NHL caliber players.... wait our farm team has actually been pumping out useful players for the past few season in the first time in franchise history....

But yeah we're still rolling the boy club.... what? Wayne is gone to work for TBS? Holland and Tippet as coach and GM?

Now that I think about it, I don't understand your comment at all. Could you please elaborate how our organization is run as if we're still in the 80's? Thanks.

 

[AUAIOMRN]

Now, I have no idea what analytics capability this organization has, if any. And it's worrying to say the least

If you have no idea, then why is it worrying?

 

[MessierII]

Tippett has been using his own numbers since the 90’s

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Kris Russell still has a place on this roster so I'm going to guess that no, they don't really care all that much analytics.

 

[pratt]

Tippett has mentioned on numerous times about the analytics reports he gets daily.

What his reports / 60 is I have no idea

I think these are the more generic reports any coach/team can get from the nhl.

 

[Spawn]

Kris Russell still has a place on this roster so I'm going to guess that no, they don't really care all that much analytics.

I have no insight into whether they employ an analytic guy or department or not. But another alternative to your post is that the team does indeed care about analytics. They just don't care about glorified shots for/against stats.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I think these are the more generic reports any coach/team can get from the nhl.

How would you know that.

 

[Zenos]

And our farm team doesn't produce NHL caliber players.... wait our farm team has actually been pumping out useful players for the past few season in the first time in franchise history....
.

Not here to dump on Bakersfield or disagree with your main premise - but the second statement isn’t true.
The Oilers had a great program in Hamilton, with players like Horcoff, Stoll, Pisani, Bergeron, and Conklin graduating to the big club.

 

[T-Funk]

Kris Russell still has a place on this roster so I'm going to guess that no, they don't really care all that much analytics.

I don't know, most people have a problem with him going down to block shots and tipping pucks in his own net. Not sure if there is a stat for that. I thought everyone just went off the eye test for him.

 

[Fourier]

I have no insight into whether they employ an analytic guy or department or not. But another alternative to your post is that the team does indeed care about analytics. They just don't care about glorified shots for/against stats.

Bingo!

 

[TheNumber4]

If you have no idea, then why is it worrying?

Meaning it points to them probably not having any analytics capabilities or plan

 

[frag2]

I know when we still had Petry on the team, Oilers had employed a local analytics team. They were not amused about Petry being traded

 

[bone]

Off season is upon us. Lots of moves to be made, picks to be taken, players signed etc to try to improve this team. Some have even called it the MOST Important off-season in a long time.

I look at some of these powerhouses still battling it out in these playoffs and many (maybe all) have heavily invested in analytics and a data-driven approach to decision making. Teams like Tampa, Carolina, Boston, Toronto, Colorado, have all invested heavily into analytics and I think the results speak for themselves. Other teams are starting to invest in analytics heavier like the Kings and Stars and those results are also starting to show.

Now onto the Oilers, at one point we had some local blogger (Tyler Dellow) who was heading analytics. I guess he butt heads with the eye test people too much as we didn't retain him and he moved onto New Jersey.

Now, I have no idea what analytics capability this organization has, if any. And it's worrying to say the least. We have an Old School GM in Holland and we HOPE that his years experience can help us compete. But can his years of experience compete with millions of dollars sunk in by our competition to gain analytical insights into players/prospects that we probably have no idea of? This organization is failing again if we don't have an analytics game plan in place. We are already way behind the 8-ball compared to big market teams in that we have near zero free agency attractiveness. If anything, we should be doubling what other teams are spending in analytics to give us a chance to even the play field.

The results speak for themselves. We literally have no impact players that weren't acquired in the 1st round. Later round picks, Euro free agents, NHL free agents, have brought some mediocre players in that really can be replaced quite easily. Meanwhile the power houses of this league are getting impact players in later draft rounds and have some home run picks. I don't think its luck or coincidence that these teams are finding the better players, these teams put in the effort to gather the necessary data to make better decisions than us. We don't seem to be even close.

You would think that Katz being a science driven guy with labs, and data, and plenty analysis going on at his businesses he would see the value of hockey analytics and invest heavy. But he also seems to be a bit of a fan boy... so maybe hes putting too much trust into the weary eyes and opinions of the OBC plus Hollands Detroit Imported OBCs.

Likely has the same quality of analytics as Sportsnet's "Advanced Analytics" presentation recently have had. "Did you know that the team that scores more goals than the other typically wins the game".

 

[alphahelix]

When Nicholson was performing his mega-GM-search he cited one of his top priorities in a potential hire as being the ability to establish a state of the art top of the line analytics department to push the franchise into the modern era. Then Ken Holland became available and all that shit was tossed out the window immediately. We’re on Holland’s philosophy now, which is basically state-of-the-art circa 1997. Paying attention to some numbers, in a general sense, but mostly going by the hockey IQ of management and scouting staff. Holland isn’t a major math guy and neither is Tyler Wright and the stats that guys like Tippett value are back-of-the-napkin style tracking of things they consider important. They keep their own stats. I’m not an insider so if someone wants to claim a deeper knowledge and can report on more recent modernization efforts, I will defer to them but as of the Holland hire this was basically the situation. The old boys clashing with and firing Tyler Dellow was a horror for our chances to build. Some of the late round picks we made while he was here turned out to be strong players on other teams. I’m not saying that we should be a 100% math team, but we are failing to turn over every rock.

 

[thadd]

Not here to dump on Bakersfield or disagree with your main premise - but the second statement isn’t true.
The Oilers had a great program in Hamilton, with players like Horcoff, Stoll, Pisani, Bergeron, and Conklin graduating to the big club.

That wasn't our team. It was Montreal's. Horcoff, Stoll, Pisani, Bergeron and Conklin could have turned out a lot better, playing a lot more minutes if we were not sending our prospects to play for another NHL team's farm team.

 

[TheNumber4]

When Nicholson was performing his mega-GM-search he cited one of his top priorities in a potential hire as being the ability to establish a state of the art top of the line analytics department to push the franchise into the modern era. Then Ken Holland became available and all that shit was tossed out the window immediately. We’re on Holland’s philosophy now, which is basically state-of-the-art circa 1997. Paying attention to some numbers, in a general sense, but mostly going by the hockey IQ of management and scouting staff. Holland isn’t a major math guy and neither is Tyler Wright and the stats that guys like Tippett value are back-of-the-napkin style tracking of things they consider important. They keep their own stats. I’m not an insider so if someone wants to claim a deeper knowledge and can report on more recent modernization efforts, I will defer to them but as of the Holland hire this was basically the situation. The old boys clashing with and firing Tyler Dellow was a horror for our chances to build. Some of the late round picks we made while he was here turned out to be strong players on other teams. I’m not saying that we should be a 100% math team, but we are failing to turn over every rock.

Well said. Agreed. If we aint turning over every rock then this management team is failing us. They taking their cushy paycheques and doing just enough to appear to be competing, but with no analytics dept I'd say our chances are slim to none that we'll ever catch up to the elite teams who've invested millions in analytics

 

[CycloneSweep]

Here is the top 10 teams in xGF%

1. Colorado
2. Toronto
3. Dallas
4. Florida
5. Carolina
6. Calgary
7. Boston
8. Vegas
9. Tampa
10. Montreal


Top 10 Teams for Corsi%

1. Colorado
2. Montreal
3. Boston
4. Carolina
5. Florida
6. Vegas
7. Calgary
8. Dallas
9. Tampa
10. Philly

So a team having good analytics CAN mean they are good teams... But you also have teams like Calgary and Dallas in there.

Analytics isn't the be all end all. Just because you have a good analytics department doesn't mean you will have a good team to get good players (New Jersey, Arizona)

It's a tool that should be used but some but far too much weight into analytics

 

[oobga]

Dellow is way too much of a purist with analytics, thinking everything to do with the game can be understood with Corsi's, similar to Eakins, so wasn't too surprising he never saw eye to eye with our old school managers. There has to be more of a middle ground in analyzing those stats and how they can compliment trying to create a team with a good player mix of skill, toughness and chemistry.

I highly doubt we have any effective analytics team, even if we think we have something put together. Getting Turris and actually thinking he could be a top 9 C and help on the PK is an easy recent confirmation of that, after he was getting cratered in Nashville and had a whole career of sucking defensively. Throwing money and term at Kassian too.

 

[TheNumber4]

Here is the top 10 teams in xGF%

1. Colorado
2. Toronto
3. Dallas
4. Florida
5. Carolina
6. Calgary
7. Boston
8. Vegas
9. Tampa
10. Montreal


Top 10 Teams for Corsi%

1. Colorado
2. Montreal
3. Boston
4. Carolina
5. Florida
6. Vegas
7. Calgary
8. Dallas
9. Tampa
10. Philly

So a team having good analytics CAN mean they are good teams... But you also have teams like Calgary and Dallas in there.

Analytics isn't the be all end all. Just because you have a good analytics department doesn't mean you will have a good team to get good players (New Jersey, Arizona)

It's a tool that should be used but some but far too much weight into analytics

There will always be outliers. But in general good analytics = good teams. And this can probably be mathematically proven by looking at the general correlation between good corsi/xGf and good teams. This all being said, you are saying it should be a tool and not the end all be all. I agree, but right now the Oilers dont even have it as a tool which is yet another clownshow management era waiting to happen.

 

[CycloneSweep]

There will always be outliers. But in general good analytics = good teams. And this can probably be mathematically proven by looking at the general correlation between good corsi/xGf and good teams. This all being said, you are saying it should be a tool and not the end all be all. I agree, but right now the Oilers dont even have it as a tool which is yet another clownshow management era waiting to happen.

But you straight up said you don't know if they have an analytics team and the sky is falling. Why are you freaking out when you don't know either way.

 

[TheNumber4]

But you straight up said you don't know if they have an analytics team and the sky is falling. Why are you freaking out when you don't know either way.

It was a rhetorical question and was hoping someone would prove my fears wrong. But nah, no one in Oil Country knows or has heard of any inklings of an analytics dept for the Oilers. I think its safe to assume we don't have one.