HF's Team Board Mock Draft

[Tripod]

Who is an NHL comparable for McLeod - someone with speed to burn, decent two-way player, but not much creativity and not a great shot (if what you guys are saying about him is true) ?

In the clips I saw, Kyle Turris is who I thought of. But have not seen enough to say for sure.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Actually, I think you will find that -- over a large sample -- what players accomplish at 16 has a higher correlation with NHL success than what they accomplish at age 17. It's a strange observation I've noticed over many years of analyzing the draft.

Regardless, Tufte accomplished nothing on the US team, and Jones accomplished a lot. I'll give you that Tufte's sample size is small, but I just don't see the evidence for picking Tufte over Jones.

You're not going to see the evidence looking on eliteprospects and ignoring context. You have to evaluate the players and project what they will be 5-7 years down the road. Tufte is a 6'5+ goal scoring winger with room to fill out. If you think he has the potential to be a top line player and you think Max Jones is more of a middle 6 guy, than you should absolutely consider taking him.

It's always risky picking a kid playing HS hockey with limited high end exposure, but the track record of picking Minnesota high school players has been pretty good. Think about how damn dominate you have to be as a high school player to be considered a 1st round pick in a pool of hundreds of kids playing Major Junior and overseas. Picking at 18, if you are looking for a top line forward (any position really but forward specifically) a guy isn't going to smack you in the face. You're probably going to have to take a chance on a risky prospect.

Tufte doesn't seem like a Flyers pick, but if they are going to swing for the fences, he might be the guy. I don't have a whole lot of faith in Max Jones becoming an impact player, but I'll leave that up to the Flyers to decide.

 

[Random Forest]

Actually, I think you will find that -- over a large sample -- what players accomplish at 16 has a higher correlation with NHL success than what they accomplish at age 17. It's a strange observation I've noticed over many years of analyzing the draft.

Is this your intuition or do you have long-run data to prove your long-run claim?

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Voted McLeod but Jones is right behind him.

 

[tade]

We need top C prospect much more than top W prospect, really can't pass on McLeod here. And general consensus is center > winger.

McLeod will take some years to develop. By the time when he will be completely ready, Giroux will be around 32-33. I am not trying to say that Giroux won't be top line center at the age of 32, of course not, but it would be great to have someone like McLeod ready for the job. McLeod has some serious top line potential that we need. After all, he could be also easily moved at wing (for some limited time, for example).

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

We need top C prospect much more than top W prospect, really can't pass on McLeod here. And general consensus is center > winger.

McLeod will take some years to develop. By the time when he will be completely ready, Giroux will be around 32-33. I am not trying to say that Giroux won't be top line center at the age of 32, of course not, but it would be great to have someone like McLeod ready for the job. McLeod has some serious top line potential that we need. After all, he could be also easily moved at wing (for some limited time, for example).

Why would McLeod take 4 or 5 years for him to even be full time? That seems like a long time for him. Even Laughton got almost 40 games with the Flyers 2 years after his draft.

 

[Les Averman]

We need top C prospect much more than top W prospect, really can't pass on McLeod here. And general consensus is center > winger.

McLeod will take some years to develop. By the time when he will be completely ready, Giroux will be around 32-33. I am not trying to say that Giroux won't be top line center at the age of 32, of course not, but it would be great to have someone like McLeod ready for the job. McLeod has some serious top line potential that we need. After all, he could be also easily moved at wing (for some limited time, for example).

I don't think we'd even want him to move to wing at any point. I assume you're just mentioning early in his career if there isn't a slot for him at center, but I'm not sure we really have anything in the way of legitimate middle 6 center prospects in the system anymore who would keep him out of the lineup when he's ready. Laughton appears to have been moved to left wing, Schenn has been moved to the wing, we're not sure whether Cousins will stay down the middle and where exactly he fits in the lineup. McLeod has the size, speed and faceoff ability that you want on top of the 2-way play. Once he's ready, he'd likely be slotted almost immediately in as 3C

 

[tade]

Why would McLeod take 4 or 5 years for him to even be full time? That seems like a long time for him. Even Laughton got almost 40 games with the Flyers 2 years after his draft.

To be an impact player on the NHL level, top 6 player.

I don't think we'd even want him to move to wing at any point. I assume you're just mentioning early in his career if there isn't a slot for him at center, but I'm not sure we really have anything in the way of legitimate middle 6 center prospects in the system anymore who would keep him out of the lineup when he's ready. Laughton appears to have been moved to left wing, Schenn has been moved to the wing, we're not sure whether Cousins will stay down the middle and where exactly he fits in the lineup. McLeod has the size, speed and faceoff ability that you want on top of the 2-way play. Once he's ready, he'd likely be slotted almost immediately in as 3C

Yes, just early in his career, like Giroux, for example. Well, it depends whether you want to have him as the 3rd line C or rather move him to wing for some time and play him in top 6 with Giroux/Couturier for the purpose of maximizing his abilities in the young stage of his career.

 

[Rebels57]

We need top C prospect much more than top W prospect, really can't pass on McLeod here. And general consensus is center > winger.

McLeod will take some years to develop. By the time when he will be completely ready, Giroux will be around 32-33. I am not trying to say that Giroux won't be top line center at the age of 32, of course not, but it would be great to have someone like McLeod ready for the job. McLeod has some serious top line potential that we need. After all, he could be also easily moved at wing (for some limited time, for example).

4-5 years is an absurdly conservative timeline estimate for McLeod. He will be in the NHL no later than 2018 I would imagine.

 

[tade]

4-5 years is an absurdly conservative timeline estimate for McLeod. He will be in the NHL no later than 2018 I would imagine.

Yes, he could be pretty soon in the NHL, I meant to be the player we could rely on. I don't expect that he will be impact player right from the get go.

 

[Rebels57]

Yes, he could be pretty soon in the NHL, I meant to be the player we could rely on. I don't expect that he will be impact player right from the get go.

Thats fair. Giroux wasnt really a "leaned on" player untl 4-5 years in.

It does seem like players are advancing into important roles faster nowadays though.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I voted Tufte but I'd be happy with a lot of guys on this list. Could have went with Jones easily.

 

[SanBlom]

I'm the single Asplund vote.

Would love to get another pick in the 1st to snag a combo of Asplund and Abramov/Benson/Dahlen.

Jones is probably my top choice of the mainstream picks.

 

[Magua]

I do wonder if you've seen McLeod play if you think he's a Giroux replacement. Unless you work for McKeen's that is.....

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I do wonder if you've seen McLeod play if you think he's a Giroux replacement. Unless you work for McKeen's that is.....

Who the hell is saying he's a Giroux replacement?

 

[Magua]

Who the hell is saying he's a Giroux replacement?

It was said.

McLeod will take some years to develop. By the time when he will be completely ready, Giroux will be around 32-33. I am not trying to say that Giroux won't be top line center at the age of 32, of course not, but it would be great to have someone like McLeod ready for the job. McLeod has some serious top line potential that we need

 

[tade]

It was said.

Where did I say that he's going to be his REPLACEMENT? Good try, no, I didn't. I said that he has serious top line potential and that it would be great to have player like him in the organization if whatever happens in the future... Not that long ago, there was pretty much consensus that McLeod will go top 10.

I am not trying to say that Giroux won't be top line center at the age of 32, of course not

This means that I said that he's going to be Girouxs replacement, really? I stated that I think that Giroux will be still top line center when he's 32/33.

 

[Tripod]

55 points puts you in the top 30 C in scoring. McLeod could be a low end 1st liner. Replacing the top 10 C and elite player in Giroux would be a much higher reach.

But hey, we never expected Giroux to replace Carter and Richards offensively either.

Keep taking forwards with talent IN EVERY ROUND where you select them and hope we get lucky. Don't draft "safe" players. We have enough depth for safe...swing for the fences now.

 

[Magua]

Where did I say that he's going to be his REPLACEMENT? Good try, no, I didn't. I said that he has serious top line potential and that it would be great to have player like him in the organization if whatever happens in the future... Not that long ago, there was pretty much consensus that McLeod will go top 10.



This means that I said that he's going to be Girouxs replacement, really? I stated that I think that Giroux will be still top line center when he's 32/33.

You inferred that he would/could be, down the line, the 1C. "Ready for the job" sure sounds like "eventual replacement" to me.

I'm not defending G here and saying you were ripping him. Sorry if you thought that. I just don't agree McLeod has that upside. Whether he even has top 6 upside I worry about.

 

[Magua]

55 points puts you in the top 30 C in scoring. McLeod could be a low end 1st liner. Replacing the top 10 C and elite player in Giroux would be a much higher reach.

But hey, we never expected Giroux to replace Carter and Richards offensively either.

Keep taking forwards with talent IN EVERY ROUND where you select them and hope we get lucky. Don't draft "safe" players. We have enough depth for safe...swing for the fences now.

We never should expect anyone to replace anyone barring a super prospect at the top, but Giroux was an offensive scoring dynamo....he had that potential at the least. But it's funny you describe McLeod saying we should take the home run pick and not the safe pick. It doesn't get any safer than McLeod to me.

 

[Ruck Over]

Can't vote (new member), but would go for Jones, Tufte. Not smart, acknowledged, but drafting the guy who can get on the ice quickest at a position of need. In third place, if he can play LW, I'd go Rubstov.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

You're not going to see the evidence looking on eliteprospects and ignoring context. You have to evaluate the players and project what they will be 5-7 years down the road. Tufte is a 6'5+ goal scoring winger with room to fill out. If you think he has the potential to be a top line player and you think Max Jones is more of a middle 6 guy, than you should absolutely consider taking him.

It's always risky picking a kid playing HS hockey with limited high end exposure, but the track record of picking Minnesota high school players has been pretty good. Think about how damn dominate you have to be as a high school player to be considered a 1st round pick in a pool of hundreds of kids playing Major Junior and overseas. Picking at 18, if you are looking for a top line forward (any position really but forward specifically) a guy isn't going to smack you in the face. You're probably going to have to take a chance on a risky prospect.

Tufte doesn't seem like a Flyers pick, but if they are going to swing for the fences, he might be the guy. I don't have a whole lot of faith in Max Jones becoming an impact player, but I'll leave that up to the Flyers to decide.

Maybe Tufte will be great. I just don't like his limited samples of 1 point in 7 games for Team USA and only 14 points in 27 games for Fargo of the USHL.

He certainly had a Wheeler-like high school season, but I have to wonder how much is just a case of a 6'5" guy owning high school kids.

Not saying he doesn't have skill, but to feel comfortable taking him at 18 overall over prospects who have shown more at higher levels of play I would like to have seen better numbers in his stints for Team USA and Fargo.

Just my personal view. I'm admittedly leery of drafting a Hugh Jessiman, who also put up monster high school stats.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Jessiman didn't just put up good high school stats, he put up big numbers as an 18 year old college freshman. He just flopped after that (injuries? mental issues?). It happens. He had a 1.38 PPG as a freshman. Should teams have been leery of Phil Kessel who had a 1.30 PPG as an 18 year old freshman or Toews who had a 1.35 PPG as an 18 year old sophomore because of Jessiman? No.

Anyone you draft at 18 is going to have warts. Have to do your homework. If level of competition is the biggest knock against a kid, I like his chances.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Jessiman's stat line from his senior year of high school at Brunswick School (2001-2002):

18 games, 25 goals, 27 assists, 52 points.

So just a hair under 3 points per game.

Anyway, like I said, I just would have liked Tufte to do better than 1 point in 7 games for the US Dev Team, and 14 points in 27 games for Fargo in the USHL. That's my main reason for being hesitant on him at 18 -- it's a small sample, but those numbers aren't particularly good.

 

[Rebels57]

Considering where we are drafting, I wouldnt be surprised if Hexy does take a late riser like he did with Sanheim. A guy like Dahlen might end up a top 10 player in his draft class but should be there at 18.