HF's Team Board Mock Draft

[LegionOfDoom91]

Tufte is still getting a lot of first round grades despite playing high school hockey so that's got to account for something as it's not an easy feat to do so anymore. The emergence of the USHL & the USDP joining the USHL has really killed off the talent pool in the high school leagues in Minnesota & New England in recent years.

The last time a US high schooler was selected in the first round was 2010 when Nick Bjugstad, Kevin Hayes, & Brock Nelson all went that year. Mark Jankowski was drafted out of Canadian high school in 2012. That's been it at the turn of the decade. The US high schools have seen their overall drafted players number dip while the USHL has had a jump.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Jessiman's stat line from his senior year of high school at Brunswick School (2001-2002):

18 games, 25 goals, 27 assists, 52 points.

So just a hair under 3 points per game.

Anyway, like I said, I just would have liked Tufte to do better than 1 point in 7 games for the US Dev Team, and 14 points in 27 games for Fargo in the USHL. That's my main reason for being hesitant on him at 18 -- it's a small sample, but those numbers aren't particularly good.

Why are you bringing up Jessiman's high school stats (in Connecticut no less)? He was great his first 2 years of college. If he flopped in college and afterward, you would have a case, but he didn't. His problems occurred after his sophomore year in college.

Tufte put up 5 points in 7 games last year in the USHL too. This year he had 10 goals in 27 games sandwiched around his high school schedule. That's a pretty good goal scoring clip for a 17 year old in the USHL. The assist numbers are light, but it should be noted Fargo was the 2nd lowest scoring team in the USHL this season.

One thing that would concern me is that he is headed to Minnesota-Duluth next season. Good team, but not exactly a hotbed for NHL talent (some good defensemen though).

 

[FLYguy3911]

BTW here's the list of 1st rounders drafted out of a Minnesota High School program since 2000:

Blake Wheeler
T.J. Oshie
Matt Niskanen
David Fischer
Ryan McDonagh
Jake Gardiner
Nick Leddy
Nick Bjugstad
Brock Nelson

Like those odds?

 

[Stizzle]

BTW here's the list of 1st rounders drafted out of a Minnesota High School program since 2000:

Blake Wheeler
T.J. Oshie
Matt Niskanen
David Fischer
Ryan McDonagh
Jake Gardiner
Nick Leddy
Nick Bjugstad
Brock Nelson

Like those odds?

Killer list.

 

[Tripod]

We never should expect anyone to replace anyone barring a super prospect at the top, but Giroux was an offensive scoring dynamo....he had that potential at the least. But it's funny you describe McLeod saying we should take the home run pick and not the safe pick. It doesn't get any safer than McLeod to me.

I have already stated that I have not seen or read up on McLead near enough because I don't figure he will fall to us. But if he did, it seems logical to take him. We would only "need" him to be a 3rd line C in order to contribute to our team and of course has lots of time to see if he can "displace" our top 2 C.

As for the homerun comment, I was more referring to our other picks. I want us to draft talent and guys with upside, instead of the Goulbournes of the world...as I stated before.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

You still see high end players play in the Minnesota high schools leagues during their 8th-10th grade years but they're mostly gone after that now a days. Paul Bittner started a trend in some kids starting to head to the WHL even which was kind of a foreign concept before.

Besides Tufte you had Casey Mittelstadt play his junior year there this year too. He's a late birthday & draft eligible for next year getting first round grades as of now. He tried getting into Minnesota for next year by accelerating his classes but couldn't make it work. He's slated to play for Green Bay in the USHL next year & Minnesota the following year now though.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Why are you bringing up Jessiman's high school stats (in Connecticut no less)? He was great his first 2 years of college. If he flopped in college and afterward, you would have a case, but he didn't. His problems occurred after his sophomore year in college.

Tufte put up 5 points in 7 games last year in the USHL too. This year he had 10 goals in 27 games sandwiched around his high school schedule. That's a pretty good goal scoring clip for a 17 year old in the USHL. The assist numbers are light, but it should be noted Fargo was the 2nd lowest scoring team in the USHL this season.

One thing that would concern me is that he is headed to Minnesota-Duluth next season. Good team, but not exactly a hotbed for NHL talent (some good defensemen though).

How about this. Forget me pointing out that Jessiman also put up great HS numbers and just get back to my original point. Which is that Tufte's 1 point in 7 Team USA games and 14 points in 27 USHL games (even if 10 are goals) is pretty damn pedestrian. You hope a 17 year old in the CHL can hit a ppg, and Tufte was about 0.5 in the USHL.

I have questions about his performance to this date against non-HS competition. That's all. And as such I wouldn't risk taking him at 18. Beyond that, it's clear we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

[Mjoedgaard]

Is this your intuition or do you have long-run data to prove your long-run claim?

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

Some of it is outdated but in general this should still hold true.

So in a qualitative sense, it’s obvious in this case that a 17-year-old player’s performance predicts a much better career than a 20-year-old’s stats. But there is also a strong quantitative relationship between past and future performance. Based on the performance of thousands of drafted players, we can predict how many points a player will score in the NHL when he’s 21-years-old. If he’s 17, four years later, we expect him to score at 72% of his junior rate. But if he’s 20, on average, he’ll retain just 26% of his scoring.

Its why its not unconnem for guys like Nick Cousins or Jason Akeson to score almost 2 ppg in there age 20 junior season, but does not project to more than 3rd or 4th line guy, while a guy like Mitch Marner project like a star 1st liner

 

[JojoTheWhale]

His star has dimmed but I'd have a tough time passing on McLeod. I'm not a Jones fan. I like Rubstov but don't think he's a Flyer pick. I could definitely see Howden or Laberge being players they would select though. Tufte if they wanted to swing for the fences.

This is exactly where I am starting to lean toward as most likely if no forward "falls".

I would snap up Rubtsov, but I can't see it happening.

 

[litflyersfan]

Looking over the draft board. It would awesome if Calargy actually got Alexander Nylander. The reunite the Nylander brothers main board threads between Leafs and Flames fans would be epic. Remember the unite the Schenn threads. Those wouldn't be nothing compared to the battle between Leafs and Flames fans. Ha looking forward to it, please make it happen.