Prospect Info: HFCBJ Voted Top 20 Prospects: Summer 2021

[tunnelvision]

Total games played of 2nd round picks of Metro teams from 2013-2018 (stats from hockeydb.com):

WSH 6 picks, 513gp
CAR 6 picks, 509gp
PHI 7 picks, 450gp
NJD 5 picks, 338gp
PIT 7 picks, 243gp
CBJ 7 picks, 199gp
NYR 3 picks, 1gp
NYI 3 picks, 0gp

Players with 99+ games:

WSH 3/6
NJD 2/5
PIT 2/7
PHI 2/7
CAR 1/6
NYR 0/3
NYI 0/3
CBJ 0/7

@majormajor , @DarkandStormy

 

[DarkandStormy]

1/7?

What a trolljob. So if a GM's last three first rounders haven't played 100 games yet, does that mean he is batting 0/3 and should be shitcanned? That's not how prospects work, and you obviously know that. You draft at 18, it takes years for their debut, let alone 100 games.

The first four were disappointing, but I'm pretty darn confident that the last three are going to be among that 34% to hit 100 games. Peeke I'm most unsure of but he's still got to be 80% plus.

You're "sure" of something that hasn't happened but accusing me of being the troll? ok. Btw, the Jackets don't have a 2nd round draft pick under the age of 21. No picks in that round in '19, '20, or '21. So it's not like I'm discounting some 19 and 20 year olds as busts...but you probably knew that.

This is an absolute wasteland. 6 of 22 have played in 100+ NHL games, 7 if you want to include Tex.

-Of his 483 career NHL games, Jackman played just 19 for the Jackets and played nearly as many career games in the AHL (429).
-Lidstrom is in that 6, but played just 150 games in the NHL, only 37 with Columbus.
-Fritsche played 187 games with Columbus, and as previously mentioned, went before some really good players in a loaded '03 draft.
-McQuaid played just 14 games here at the end of his career after being drafted here initially (and not wanting to play here early on). Spent 90+% of his career in Boston.
-Goloubef played 96 games with Columbus and though he cleared the 100 career games mark, he's spent his entire career as a tweener. Roman Josi was selected with the next pick after Goloubef.

So as I said, from a Columbus perspective, it's basically Jenner & jury out on the three most recent 2nd rounders.

Really don't know how you can classify that as anything other than a curse / [insert word choice here]. Maybe Jarmo has turned the corner with Peeke/Tex/Marchenko but you really need to see those guys pan out beyond a couple seasons before declaring them as successes.

 

[Viqsi]

You're "sure" of something that hasn't happened but accusing me of being the troll? ok. Btw, the Jackets don't have a 2nd round draft pick under the age of 21. No picks in that round in '19, '20, or '21. So it's not like I'm discounting some 19 and 20 year olds as busts...but you probably knew that.
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This is an absolute wasteland. 6 of 22 have played in 100+ NHL games, 7 if you want to include Tex.

-Of his 483 career NHL games, Jackman played just 19 for the Jackets and played nearly as many career games in the AHL (429).
-Lidstrom is in that 6, but played just 150 games in the NHL, only 37 with Columbus.
-Fritsche played 187 games with Columbus, and as previously mentioned, went before some really good players in a loaded '03 draft.
-McQuaid played just 14 games here at the end of his career after being drafted here initially (and not wanting to play here early on). Spent 90+% of his career in Boston.
-Goloubef played 96 games with Columbus and though he cleared the 100 career games mark, he's spent his entire career as a tweener. Roman Josi was selected with the next pick after Goloubef.

So as I said, from a Columbus perspective, it's basically Jenner & jury out on the three most recent 2nd rounders.

Really don't know how you can classify that as anything other than a curse / [insert word choice here]. Maybe Jarmo has turned the corner with Peeke/Tex/Marchenko but you really need to see those guys pan out beyond a couple seasons before declaring them as successes.

I think the point being made is that, yes, obviously everything was terrible with MacLean here, and Howson didn't do much better in the second round, but claiming that this property continues to extend into Kekalainen's tenure is premature.

I would also suggest looking into comparative draft performances in rounds after the 2nd.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Really don't know how you can classify that as anything other than a curse / [insert word choice here]. Maybe Jarmo has turned the corner with Peeke/Tex/Marchenko but you really need to see those guys pan out beyond a couple seasons before declaring them as successes.

Agree with thius summation.

I would also suggest looking into comparative draft performances in rounds after the 2nd.

I understand your point, but that wouldn't really change how the second-round draft history is perceived.

 

[Jovavic]

I believe we traded a second for Denis and another second to Dallas for Grant Marshall, who used the pick on Loui Ericksson.

 

[majormajor]

Total games played of 2nd round picks of Metro teams from 2013-2018 (stats from hockeydb.com):

WSH 6 picks, 513gp
CAR 6 picks, 509gp
PHI 7 picks, 450gp
NJD 5 picks, 338gp
PIT 7 picks, 243gp
CBJ 7 picks, 199gp
NYR 3 picks, 1gp
NYI 3 picks, 0gp

Players with 99+ games:

WSH 3/6
NJD 2/5
PIT 2/7
PHI 2/7
CAR 1/6
NYR 0/3
NYI 0/3
CBJ 0/7

@majormajor , @DarkandStormy

This is not exactly enlightening work. We know that Jarmo whiffed on his first 4 second rounders and obviously since they're the ones that are old enough to have played 100+ games at this point in their would-be careers, that will leave the Jackets without many gp.

It doesn't tell us anything about the three recent 2nds which are by far the most promising of all. Picks from the last 5 drafts shouldn't be listed as failures yet (which is what 0/7 implies) because it is unrealistic to expect them to have played 100 games by this point. If Shea Weber was drafted in 2017, he would not have played 100 games yet (partly because of the pandemic, like Texier).

 

[majormajor]

I understand your point, but that wouldn't really change how the second-round draft history is perceived.

What exactly is the value of that perception?

I really don't care about Kiel McLeod, and I imagine most Jackets fans don't dwell on that ancient stuff either. What we really want to know is if Jarmo can be trusted to draft in the second round. I personally think Peeke, Texier, and Marchenko is really good drafting in recent years, and that is way more relevant than whatever Dan Fritsche or other bad pick happened twelve years ago.

 

[majormajor]

Really don't know how you can classify that as anything other than a curse / [insert word choice here]. Maybe Jarmo has turned the corner with Peeke/Tex/Marchenko but you really need to see those guys pan out beyond a couple seasons before declaring them as successes.

It's a completely reasonable guess that those guys are going to play. I'm not going out on any kind of limb.

Don't list them as 0/7 or even 1/7, you blame me for counting chickens before they hatch but you've been calling the chickens dead.

Yeah those three players aren't teenagers anymore but in the 2nd round it takes a lot longer than that to get to 100 games played.

From the 2016 draft only 6 players have already accrued 100 gp.

From the 2017 draft only 1 player has accrued 100 gp.

From the 2018 draft none have, only one player even has 50 gp.

You're using the wrong metric.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

What exactly is the value of that perception?

I really don't care about Kiel McLeod, and I imagine most Jackets fans don't dwell on that ancient stuff either. What we really want to know is if Jarmo can be trusted to draft in the second round. I personally think Peeke, Texier, and Marchenko is really good drafting in recent years, and that is way more relevant than whatever Dan Fritsche or other bad pick happened twelve years ago.

I don’t know - it’s a fan thing? But the point is that knowing how the team has done drafting in not-the-second-round doesn’t really impact how the team has drafted in the second round.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

It is difficult to grade how they will play against opponents that is equal good or better than themselves.

It is easy to be dominated in junior, as one of the best in your age group.
In the NHL it is the best from may 12 times your age group.

For some even of the best juniors, it proves to be impossibly to midgrade their game to the senior professional League.
For other that seamed less skilled, they does better, that they did as juniors.

It is not even so it is easier with boys from Europe that has played in the KHL as juniors. They still sometime fails in the NHL.

Jan, I agree on this - I find it even harder to judge how good Swedish, Finnish or Russian prospects are coming out of the professional league. Mainly because they often play so few minutes, and likely have a lot less points then they would have gotten playing against competition their own age in the CHL or USHL. I will watching & rooting for Kent Johnson's development. I was so sure that we were taking Eklund, Guenther or Clarke at 5. I didn't want PLD during the draft either and couldn't believe we passed on Pool party. I don't have an eye for projections clearly.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

I believe we traded a second for Denis and another second to Dallas for Grant Marshall, who used the pick on Loui Ericksson.

Yep, missed on Louie Ericksson & also on Sean Couturier (while also losing Jacub Voracek) hindsight is 20/20.

Hockey
Lachance, Richardson join Jackets

CBC Sports · Posted: Jul 05, 2002 3:04 AM ET | Last Updated: July 5, 2002
The Columbus Blue Jackets bolstered the weakest blueline in the NHL Western Conference on Thursday.
The Blue Jackets signed veterans Luke Richardson and Scott Lachance to four-year contracts worth $11 million US and $8 million US, respectively.
"Our goal on July 1 was to add size, mobility, skill and leadership on our blueline and, by adding Scott Lachance and Luke Richardson to the Blue Jackets lineup, we have accomplished that," Blue Jackets general manager Doug MacLean said.

Reminder 2003 - 2005 first & 2nd rd picks were MAF, Eric Staal then Ovechkin, Malkin, then Crosby, Ryan. MacLean took a big swing and whiffed so bad.. While Mario sold traded away his core to rebuild during that time. Thankfully Jarmo did not repeat the sins of the past choosing to rebuild in 2021-2024

 

[tunnelvision]

The original CBJ second round picks of '19, '20 and '21 were used on Samuel Fagemo (LAK), Swedish forward finishing 7th in points on their AHL affiliate last year, Joel Blomqvist (PIT), Finnish goalie prospect playing for one of those most successful teams in FEL, and forward Josh Doan (ARI), the son of Shane Doan going to college in Arizona next year.

So since we're cursed, at least one of them has to be a future hall of famer/5-time Vezina winner/10-time Selke finalist, right?

 

[Jovavic]

We traded three picks to Dallas to draft Mayorov and they picked Jaime Benn with one of them

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

We traded three picks to Dallas to draft Mayorov and they picked Jaime Benn with one of them

*checks thread title*
*re-reads post*
*sighs and exits thread*

 

[Jovavic]

*checks thread title*
*re-reads post*
*sighs and exits thread*

Mayorov was on one of the previous prospects list, thus how we came of possession of his pick and what the other team did with the traded picks are on the fringes of "on topic".

 

[stevo61]

This was a fun list this year. I have learned that you should never be excited for a prospect and traded picks that succeed are definitely picks we would have made.