Prospect Info: HFAvs Prospect Ranking Polls 2023 #1

[McMetal]

The prospect ranking polls have begun! Who takes the #1 spot?

Click to read more...

 

[McMetal]

I'm going with Gulyayev, his skill set really intrigues me. And of course, shiny new toys are always great before they get tarnished with time.

Add Foudy, he was 5th in the voting last year.

 

[S E P H]

My favourite threads! I am going with Gulyayev as well, more risk than making the NHL compared to Behrens, but his offensive skillset is unteachable.

Add Foudy.

 

[henchman21]

I'm going to go with Ritchie by the thinnest of margins. His upside isn't as high as Goulash... but his bust risk is much, much higher. Ritchie to me looks like Dylan Strome. Hopefully he's a bit less lazy and closer to the player Strome showed with his career on the line. If that's the case, the Avs got a solid 2C. I think he's also a pretty solid bet to have a NHL career.

Gulyayev has more pure talent. His skating, vision, and IQ give him a chance to be a higher impact player. He's also pretty soft, meh to bad defensively, and has a muffin. I also have a slight worry with his hands in tighter spaces. More than any of that though, I really worry about Russian development. The only Russian developed top pairing defensemen over the last 15 years is Orlov and he plays a much different style. The last Russian to play an offensively tilted style with skating to make it to the NHL at a top end level was probably Gonchar. You could argue Voynov, but that crashed before getting established... and he spent 3 full seasons in the AHL. My top worry is control of his development and there really isn't any positive history here over the last couple decades.

 

[UncleRisto]

Behrens is the only one who won't completely bust.

 

[95snipes]

I had Gulyayev 20 and Ritchie 21 for the '23 draft so sticking to that.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Gulyayev for me. Biggest upside in our pool by far. Certainly lots of bust risk as well but given where we're at as an organization right now, I'd take the Boom/Bust guy.

It is crazy how just having two 1st round picks and making good picks, can make such a difference to our prospect pool. Certainly still far from great, but I dont think we're anywhere near the bottom of the league anymore either like we were last year.




Add Foudy for sure, should already be on the list tbh.

 

[Perratrooper]

What’s the games played and age cutoff again?

 

[Caser]

Add Kovalenko.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Where are Malinski, Foudy, and Pavol? All three of them will play in the NHL this season before any of those listed above (unless both Georgiev and Francouz both get hurt)

Add Kovalenko.

#1 Kovalenko
#2 Malinski
#3 Foudy
#4 Pavol
#5 Behrens

This list should start with #6

 

[Vaslof]

I'd guess Foudy but he's not up there yet

 

[MaKarter]

Let's get this Gulyayev hype train rolling!

 

[McMetal]

What’s the games played and age cutoff again?

65 NHL games played and has not yet played the season of their 24th birthday. They also have to be under Avs control, so Zhuravlyov, Weiss, and Leivermann are out due to us not having their rights anymore.

Where are Malinski, Foudy, and Pavol? All three of them will play in the NHL this season before any of those listed above (unless both Georgiev and Francouz both get hurt)


#1 Kovalenko
#2 Malinski
#3 Foudy
#4 Pavol
#5 Behrens

This list should start with #6

Malinski, per the rules above, is not eligible due to age. Too bad, because I'd be interested to see where he lands, but rules are rules.

The starting five I picked kind of arbitrarily. It's the top 3 from last year, minus Meyers who is too old, plus the two most recent 1st rounders. I figured that was the best way to go about it.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Malinski, per the rules above, is not eligible due to age. Too bad, because I'd be interested to see where he lands, but rules are rules.

The starting five I picked kind of arbitrarily. It's the top 3 from last year, minus Meyers who is too old, plus the two most recent 1st rounders. I figured that was the best way to go about it.

That's fair, brother.

































add Fairbrother

 

[Perratrooper]

I flip flopped between Ritchie and Guley, ultimately went with Ritchie as I see him being more likely to be an NHL player with a higher floor. When I’m doubt between two prospects I tend to lean conservative.

Add Foudy & Kovalenko

 

[CobraAcesS]

Holy shit, didn't really expect the Russian to be winning this early lol.

Gulyayev for me. Biggest upside in our pool by far. Certainly lots of bust risk as well but given where we're at as an organization right now, I'd take the Boom/Bust guy.

It is crazy how just having two 1st round picks and making good picks, can make such a difference to our prospect pool. Certainly still far from great, but I dont think we're anywhere near the bottom of the league anymore either like we were last year.




Add Foudy for sure, should already be on the list tbh.

I'd pick him 3rd or 4th.. Definitely should be on the list.

Also does Kovy not count anymore? He may be my bet for 3RW as soon as he hits NA ice.

Top 5 is probably all I'm really good for these days anyway lol.

 

[lionsDen]

I'm going to go with Ritchie by the thinnest of margins. His upside isn't as high as Goulash... but his bust risk is much, much higher. Ritchie to me looks like Dylan Strome. Hopefully he's a bit less lazy and closer to the player Strome showed with his career on the line. If that's the case, the Avs got a solid 2C. I think he's also a pretty solid bet to have a NHL career.

Gulyayev has more pure talent. His skating, vision, and IQ give him a chance to be a higher impact player. He's also pretty soft, meh to bad defensively, and has a muffin. I also have a slight worry with his hands in tighter spaces. More than any of that though, I really worry about Russian development. The only Russian developed top pairing defensemen over the last 15 years is Orlov and he plays a much different style. The last Russian to play an offensively tilted style with skating to make it to the NHL at a top end level was probably Gonchar. You could argue Voynov, but that crashed before getting established... and he spent 3 full seasons in the AHL. My top worry is control of his development and there really isn't any positive history here over the last couple decades.

I mean everything we like was built from the Russian game you don’t think he’ll continue to play and develope like this or will Russia try to round him into something’s he’s not. Is it partly due to big ice?

I voted OO I just want to see it happen

 

[henchman21]

I mean everything we like was built from the Russian game you don’t think he’ll continue to play and develope like this or will Russia try to round him into something’s he’s not. Is it partly due to big ice?

I voted OO I just want to see it happen

Ehhh… most of the game today was born outside of Russia. They’re elements and mixing as with all things, but the old Soviet style isn’t alive and well. It’s pretty dead actually.

The bigger ice may play a factor, but the KHL is moving to smaller ice. I think most are there or at the Finnish size, which is in between.

Style of play is more important though. The European game is simply slower, more trap filled, played east/west, more skating with the puck, and on the perimeter. Russia is on the more extreme end of that. Sweden might be the only country who is more extreme… their best D also tend to come over early. Trap and conservatism is much more prevalent than a north/south fast pace. Risks are less acceptable. Russian defenseman have to play styles that work in their pro games. Their tendencies and teachings just don’t jive well with the NA style, especially on defense. Plenty of talented young defensemen have come through Russia to never make it here. They don’t develop to the NHL style of play. It isn’t an accident that we don’t have many Russian trained defensemen lighting it up anymore. They all come through NA training, spend years in the AHL, or are shutdown/defensive first sort of guys.

If Gulyayev doesn’t come over early and refuses AHL time, I think his bust potential dramatically increases. The styles are too different to have immediate success in NA as a defensemen. It’ll take time and I worry time spent in Russia will beat out what makes his skill set pop. I’d personally feel much more comfortable if he played Canadian Major Junior next season with the following in the AHL. He’d learn the NA game and his individual skills would be allowed to shine more.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Hmm...So the Russian risk is in drafting is actually real?

I thought it was overblown? Or am I wrong about that?

 

[MacKaRant]

Certainly still far from great, but I dont think we're anywhere near the bottom of the league anymore either like we were last year.

I still think the five names in this list are pretty underwhelming. What teams do you think have worse prospect pools?

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Not sure if he couldn’t be added because of age cut-off, but Kovalenko is our best prospect Imo.

Of the options available, I’m going Ritchie. The upside could be greater than thought, if the injury held him back this season.

 

[henchman21]

Hmm...So the Russian risk is in drafting is actually real?

I thought it was overblown? Or am I wrong about that?

Define the risk. It is a complex situation where not all things are the same. There is also a pretty large difference between Russians who are drafted out of NA and ones drafted out of Russia. The NA ones are typically much more akin and open to the NA development path.

The risk of Russians never coming over? That's way overblown. If they are good enough or even remotely think they are, they will come over.

The contract risk with regards to timing to come over? Exists, but usually pretty well defined. Most are a year or two past their draft year, and most who are good enough, don't sign an extension. Still that extension risk exists. We've seen it with bigger names like Kaprizov, but we've experienced it here with Kovalenko who signed an extension instead of coming over. Still, most are 1-2 years after their draft year and if they are good enough, you can figure that out. I personally see this as overblown in most circumstances (I hate it with Gulyayev for development reasons).

The contract risk on elevated salaries to retain them? Also certainly exists.... but declining IMO. The risk of what Nuke and Radulov did (different between them) exists. The finances of Russia and the KHL are on worse footing than 5-10 years ago, but the leverage exists still. I'd say this is way overblown too.

The not getting full use of their prime years and RFA years? Absolutely a risk. Most Russians who are drafted out of Russia, don't come over until they are ready and are guaranteed a NHL spot. It is more common for them to be 22-23 when entering the NHL than it is at 19-20. There is 2-3 years less usage and 1-2 years of the prime taken away. Along with that, there usually ends up being a year or two less of team control before UFA.

The biggest risk IMO is the development risk, and it absolutely exists. When players are under KHL control, the NHL team really has little to no say in their development. You might be able to bring them into a development camp, maybe give them offseason things to work on... but that's really about it. During the season, most KHL teams limit outsiders from working with players. Maybe some scout contact, but almost never letting a development coach have time with a player. A player's usage and role, the NHL team has zero say in. If the KHL team wants to limit Gulyayev to 5 minutes a night and never in the MHL, the Avs have no say. If the Avs want Gulyayev to have a PP QB role, they can't force it. If the player is in the AHL, they can force situations. If the player is in juniors, they tend to work with those front offices to put players in good situations. They are also allowed a lot more contact with the players.

As a supplemental to development, Russians that come from the KHL development are very frequently NHL or bust. They won't spend time in the AHL to adjust to the NHL game. So they have to develop in the NHL on the fly and a team has to be willing to do that, even if it hurts the team in the short term. Really outside a few teams each year, the NHL isn't a developmental league. Either you're good enough, or you should be in the AHL. With where the Avs are in their core's ages, this is even more true. Even when it is very clear a player needs AHL time like Zhura, they frequently don't want to put in that time in the AHL. We can come back to a million reasons why this happens, but simply being NHL or bust raises the bust risk significantly.

With Gulyayev, I think there is just another added element. Russia has not developed a defensemen of his style since the 90s. His style is simply against how the country plays hockey in their professional league and internationally. If they had produced multiple Zubov's in the last 20 years, I wouldn't be pounding this drum. They just haven't produced a single one in this millennium. That's a very poor track record. While NA has shown a pretty adept ability to develop smaller, high end skating offensive defensemen that have a strong impact in the NHL. The NA systems produce multiple top 4 guys with similar stature and skills each year.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Not sure if he couldn’t be added because of age cut-off, but Kovalenko is our best prospect Imo.

Of the options available, I’m going Ritchie. The upside could be greater than thought, if the injury held him back this season.

You would have Kovalenko ranked #1?

Bold

 

[henchman21]

I think Kovalenko is eligible based on our standards around here. I wouldn't have him near #1 though... people are vastly overrating his one good season in a weakened KHL. I'll be shocked if he ever ends up more than a meh 3rd liner and my expectation is he doesn't make it to 200 NHL games.

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

Ritchie

Don't think I'd rate Kovalenko #1, but should definitely be added to the list, and might be above one or two current choices.

Add Kovalenko, Foudy.