HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll #19

[McMetal]

Cam Morrison finally breaks through to land at #18. Luka Burzan added.

Position	Player	Draft	2019 Rank	2018 Rank	Change
RD	Cale Makar	2017 #4	1 (96.7%)	1	0
LD	Bowen Byram	2019 #4	2 (98.1%)	-	-
C	Alex Newhook	2019 #16	3 (60.0%)	-	-
RD	Conor Timmins	2017 #32	4 (57.8%)	3	-1
RW	Martin Kaut	2018 #16	5 (92.6%)	2	-3
C	Shane Bowers	2017 #28 (TR)	6 (76.6%)	4	-2
C	Vladislav Kamenev	2014 #42 (TR)	7 (52.1%)	6	-1
RD	Nicolas Meloche	2015 #40	8 (46.5%)	5	-3
RD	Drew Helleson	2019 #47	9 (58.1%)	-	-
RW	Nikolai Kovalenko	2018 #171	10 (51.5%)	13	+3
LW	AJ Greer	2015 #39	11 (69.3%)	8	-3
C	Igor Shvyrev	2017 #125	12 (26.8%)	7	-5
G	Adam Werner	2016 #131	13 (29.1%)	25	+12
LW	Sampo Ranta	2018 #78	14 (41.7%)	11	-3
C	Logan O'Connor	Undrafted	15 (32.8%)	HM	+15
G	Justus Annunen	2018 #64	16 (30.3%)	12	-4
RW	Nick Henry	2016 #94	17 (34.3%)	16	-1
LW	Cam Morrison	2016 #40	18 (39.1%)	14	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Click to read more...

 

[McMetal]

This is where it gets really tough... I'm going with Beaucage because I really liked that pick, even though I know it was a little divisive due to his skating. Weiss needs to have a better season next year to jump ahead.

Add Clurman I guess. Him and Kvaca are about the only names left.

 

[henchman21]

Add Clurman I guess. Him and Kvaca are about the only names left.

How dare you slight Shmakov!

 

[UncleRisto]

Tylerweiss, tylerweiss
Small and white.

 

[henchman21]

Small and white.

Not what she wanted, but what she said.

 

[UncleRisto]

Not what she wanted, but what she said.

"Clean and bright" didn't really work for this.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

People are voting Alex "quicksand" Beaucage over Weiss?

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Weiss.
Add Clurman.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

People are voting Alex "quicksand" Beaucage over Weiss?

Does Weiss not have his own warts?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

This is the last significant drop off IMO where we essentially go from long shots too not going to make it.


Though I like Zhuravlyov, but he has such a long way to go. I actually think I'd go Beaucage here as he has a legit NHL skill in his arsenal already with his shot. Lots of work on his skating needed and I doubt it ever gets to an NHL level but if it can he might have a chance at real upside simply off his shooting alone.

But ya after Morrison at 18 there's a sizable drop off for me.



Tier 1: Makar/Byram - Major upside and high probability of Top 6 Forwards/Top 4 Defender level

Timmins/Kaut/Newhook - High probability of being NHLers, moderate probability of being Top6/Top 4

Bowers/Kovalenko - High NHL probability, low Top 6/Top 4 NHL upside

Kamenev/Helleson/Meloche/LOC - Medium NHL probability, LOW Top 6/Top 4 upside

Greer/Ranta/Henry/Shvy/Werner/Morrison/Annunen - Low NHL probability, Low Top 6/Top 4/Starting Goalie

Beaucage/Zhuravlyov/Weiss/Saigeon/Miner/Leivermann - Very low NHL probability, Miracle required for anything more.



That's how I see our prospect pool at least in terms of tiers now. I think we have 7 guys in our system that stand a very good chance of being NHL players somewhere in the league. 5 with legit chances to be impact players but if I had to guess only 4 actually end up being Top 6 forwards or Top 4 Defenders.

 

[McMetal]

How dare you slight Shmakov!

Oh man, I did forget him. He impressed me at dev camp, I would add him before Clurman actually.

 

[cgf]

Does Weiss not have his own warts?

Putting on weight is typically a much easier wart to overcome

 

[Tweaky]

Beaucage; add Kvaca, Clurman, Shmakov

 

[PAZ]

Went a bit of a darkhouse with Mutala. He had a lesser role behind a bunch of veterans and both his parents had serious health issues. He has decent tools, I expect him to breakout this season.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Putting on weight is typically a much easier wart to overcome

Feel like that's not just it with Weiss or we'd not be considering him for place #19.

Beaucage has an NHL shot already, I'm just gambling on that

 

[cgf]

Feel like that's not just it with Weiss or we'd not be considering him for place #19.

Beaucage has an NHL shot already, I'm just gambling on that

Well we should've picked Weiss like 5 polls ago, but not much we can do about that now...what are Weiss's warts other than weighing as much as a pre-teen and having a longer development arc because of that?

 

[henchman21]

Well we should've picked Weiss like 5 polls ago, but not much we can do about that now...what are Weiss's warts other than weighing as much as a pre-teen and having a longer development arc because of that?

We've basically been in a tier since 10 that is a pickem sort of tier. You could make arguments for any. LOC you might have a 3rd or 4th line guy who stick around for 150-200 games. Or Ranta who could improve his hockey smarts and use his great skill set to become a real good 3rd liner. At this level it is as much about who you like and what you value. If you can look past certain things, well, you might like one prospect over another. With Weiss you're overlooking size completely... with Ranta.. IQ, with Morrison skating and skill, Beaucage everything but his shot, etc. I'd personally go Shvy - LOC - Ranta - Morrison - Weiss - Annunen - Lewis - Werner - Henry - Zhura... but I think you could be reasonable with nearly any order.

 

[cgf]

Agreed. And I'm always more worried about guys knowing what to do with their meat than how much beef they bring to the party, which is why I've got Weiss second in that tier over Ranta and the slow-skaters.

 

[Tweaky]

Obligatory meme time:

 

[tigervixxxen]

Weiss has a tiny frame, it’s not about weight. He hasn’t had the chance to progress much and couldn’t participate in dev camp. Ranta at least has showed well in camp and the WJSS, so there’s some progress. Lewis should have been voted in before Shvyrev, they are very much in the same boat and Lewis has a more polished and well rounded game. Igor’s best attribute is creativity which doesn’t buy him much in the AHL. Beaucage is the new shiny but he had a nice showing at camp, he was the youngest guy there and he has a NHL level shot and was arguably the best guy in the 3 on 3. At this part of the list I think that gets him somewhere.

 

[henchman21]

Weiss has a tiny frame, it’s not about weight. He hasn’t had the chance to progress much and couldn’t participate in dev camp. Ranta at least has showed well in camp and the WJSS, so there’s some progress. Lewis should have been voted in before Shvyrev, they are very much in the same boat and Lewis has a more polished and well rounded game. Igor’s best attribute is creativity which doesn’t buy him much in the AHL. Beaucage is the new shiny but he had a nice showing at camp, he was the youngest guy there and he has a NHL level shot and was arguably the best guy in the 3 on 3. At this part of the list I think that gets him somewhere.

I think you are hitting on a key difference between the two. I totally agree that Lewis is certainly more well rounded and is more capable of being trusted in the AHL, but he doesn't show any real flashes that stand out. It is rare that there is enough of a flash at the AHL level to give hope. With Shvy, it didn't happen all that often last year, but there were some flashes of high end plays. It might have only been a shift or two every few games, but he flashed. When we are talking late and about players who likely don't amount to anything, I think a flash is more valuable than somebody who could round into a middle 6 AHL guy by being trustworthy. Each side of that has merit though... as the flashy may never get consistent or the downs might be strong enough that the coaching staff never really lets the flash develop.

 

[S E P H]

Weiss has a tiny frame, it’s not about weight.

That's as rookie of a mistake that you can make tigre, weight is a million times more important than anything about height. However, some people are genetically predisposed that they just cannot gain weight so it's hard for them to gain muscle. Stefan Elliott is one example who weighed around the same since he was drafted and why he never amounted to anything in the NHL. Weiss can suffer the same fate no doubt, but he's easily better than anyone picked from 12th up till now.

Crosby is 5'11" and Weiss is 5'10, that means that Sidney is one inch bigger than Tyler, but weighs 41 lbs heavier (200 vs 159) based upon the stats given to us by NHL and EP. You want to make the argument that Weiss will never become an NHL player because he's one inch less than Crosby?

 

[cgf]

That's as rookie of a mistake that you can make tigre, weight is a million times more important than anything about height. However, some people are genetically predisposed that they just cannot gain weight so it's hard for them to gain muscle. Stefan Elliott is one example who weighed around the same since he was drafted and why he never amounted to anything in the NHL. Weiss can suffer the same fate no doubt, but he's easily better than anyone picked from 12th up till now.

Crosby is 5'11" and Weiss is 5'10, that means that Sidney is one inch bigger than Tyler, but weighs 41 lbs heavier (200 vs 159) based upon the stats given to us by NHL and EP. You want to make the argument that Weiss will never become an NHL player because he's one inch less than Crosby?

Frame isn't just about length, but also girth...

 

[S E P H]

Frame isn't just about length, but also girth...

Oh absolutely there are a lot of different factors when it comes to talking about "frame". If Weiss has metabolism problems, then him being 6'2" would greatly impact his ability to make the NHL compared to what he is now. I just don't buy height arguments, even though if you're taller you tend to be heavier just because of ratio of mass.

 

[UncleRisto]

SEPH out here replying to dick jokes.