Hextall and Flyers Pro Scouting of veteran Players

[Sawdalite]

Why do people keep repeating this alternative fact?

Filppula had 31 points in 76 games last season.

He has 35 points in 60 games this season.

Can we call this Post 'Fake News' when it cites a small sample of a much larger career?

He had Point Point Totals of 17, 36, 40, 35 (55 Games), 39, 66, 17 (half Season) 58, 48, 31, 35 (YTD), and is almost 33 years old; pushing towards latter part of his NHL Career.

Your two cited years would indicate an upswing in Points... when in reality the trend in points and marking off years in age would indicate a downswing.

Sure, Players buck the norm and the change in Teams can cause their game to improve... but I believe VF can safely be considered on the downswing of his career... just as a young Player traded can be considered on the upswing of his career... Thus is the way of the World/NHL.

Alternate fact? Really?

 

[Curufinwe]

He's scoring significantly more this year than last year. That's not a decline. His point totals have varied quite a bit, and it's not just a descent from a peak. He's going to score at a better pace this year at age 32 than he did when he was 23, 24, 26 and 28.

Being 33 years old next season is not a problem when he only has one year left.

 

[deadhead]

His scoring per 60 at 5x5 steadily declined the last three years until this season, when it's jumped back to his rate four years ago. So average out those four years and he's scoring about the same rate as our 6th forward over that four year period.

If you have reasonable expectations he's a good bet to give us 30+ ES points next year, contribute on the PK if needed, and could fill in on the 2nd PP as well. That's nothing to sneeze at, that kind of veteran center would probably cost you a 4yr - $20M contract in free agency at a minimum.

 

[Sawdalite]

He's scoring significantly more this year than last year. That's not a decline. His point totals have varied quite a bit, and it's not just a descent from a peak. He's going to score at a better pace this year at age 32 than he did when he was 23, 24, 26 and 28.

Being 33 years old next season is not a problem when he only has one year left.

Again, a very small sample... 25G/58P, 12G/48P, 8G/31P, 8G/34P (YTD) when expanded by just two years prior... Significantly more? He is on the downswing of his career, but on an upswing of a two Season Stretch... I'll give you that.

Look, I was impressed last night when I watched him at the Game... I hope he turns out to be worth the $5M... I hope he has a very good Season next year... I want him to work out here, and I do feel batter after the Game than I did before it... But no mater how we shake and bake it, it is $5M for a 33 YO Player nearing his possible Final Contract... Maybe ther will be no better Player available next Season on the Open Market; who knows.

That said... does it concern you in any manner that TB actually lost in Drafting Position and a full Draft Pick to do this? They paid a 4th Rounder and a 7th and than took Streit a flipped him for a lower 4th Round Selection -- Pittsburgh will end up much lower in selection than TB -- They moved down considerably and lost a late Pick entirely; they basically paid to move VF... to dump his $5M next Season. Hextall took over their unwanted Cap Hit and frankly aided our arch Rival in the process.


On a slightly associated note: Last night I was again impressed with the play of Weal... I had fully bought into the notion that he was a great AHL Player that could not succeed in the NHL... He may still not, but I like what he contributed on the Top line and in the ShootOut. Maybe Hexy has scored a hit with his acquisition last Season after all... maybe it wasn't all a Cap/RosterSpot dump move by LAK after all... Hopefully that proves to be the case, and is the case with VF also.

 

[Sawdalite]

His scoring per 60 at 5x5 steadily declined the last three years until this season, when it's jumped back to his rate four years ago. So average out those four years and he's scoring about the same rate as our 6th forward over that four year period.

If you have reasonable expectations he's a good bet to give us 30+ ES points next year, contribute on the PK if needed, and could fill in on the 2nd PP as well. That's nothing to sneeze at, that kind of veteran center would probably cost you a 4yr - $20M contract in free agency at a minimum.

Errrrrr, please excuse me but I just got a Flashback Reaction to when the Flyers signed AMac to his contract... 'Great shot blocker, he can come in here, pair up with Streit and greatly contribute to stabilizing the Defense... $5M is the going Minimum Rate for a D-Man in in today's NHL Open Market'.

 

[Appleyard]

Part of the problem is so many people are still stuck in post-lockout when it comes to scoring.

The average 2C over a ~3+ year period gets ~50 points per 82 games. That is the average 2C level these days just offensively... and most of those guys play PP1.

Since start of 2014-15 (100+gp, regular centers):

#15 in C PPG: Toews (65pts per 82 games)
#30 in C PPG: Duchene (57pts per 82 games)
#45 in C PPG: Zibanejad (50pts per 82 games)
#60 in C PPG: Bjugstad (41pts per 82 games)
#75 in C PPG: Helm (31pts per 82 games)
#90 in C PPG: W. Karlsson (24pts per 82 games)

 

[Sawdalite]

We are straying from the Thread Topic... Hextall's track record with FAs... Again I stress that he has been exceptionally good with Out of the NHL/European and College FAs... and seems to be right on track, with Entry Draft Selections... His record with Veteran NHL FAs, along with Contracted NHL Veterans, no so much.

 

[deadhead]

A quick guesstimate, 1C - 15 pp points, 2 C 10 pp
1C - 50 ES
2C - 40 ES
3C - 30 ES
quick check,
20 forwards had 40+ 5x5 points last year
66 forwards had 30-39 5x5 points
78 forwards had 25-29
So 25-30 ES points or so makes you a top 6 forward

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

That said... does it concern you in any manner that TB actually lost in Drafting Position and a full Draft Pick to do this? They paid a 4th Rounder and a 7th and than took Streit a flipped him for a lower 4th Round Selection -- Pittsburgh will end up much lower in selection than TB -- They moved down considerably and lost a late Pick entirely; they basically paid to move VF... to dump his $5M next Season. Hextall took over their unwanted Cap Hit and frankly aided our arch Rival in the process.

Saw, that doesn't bother me in the slightest. Taken in isolation, signing a 32/33-year-old at 5 million per is about the last thing I would want, but this answers a position of need and gives us speed and skill which we lack, and the term is perfect - it dovetails nicely on the timeline with Vorobyov and Rubtsov. Flip doesn't really play like someone on the downswing of his career, so while he clearly is on the back 9, he has enough in the tank to help us the rest of this season and next. Also, we have plenty of cap room to play with. Yzerman didn't bend us over a table or anything - sure, we helped him out, but we got fair market value back for a decrepit defenseman who is playing like someone not just on the downswing, but on the very last puffs of oxygen in his career. Yzerman had huge cap problems when you consider all the guys who he has to sign this summer, but those guys are all stellar players and I don't think it is an indictment on Flip that those guys took priority in Yzerman's planning.

 

[Curufinwe]

We took advantage of the ED rules hitting Tampa hard, and them likely missing the playoffs, and the fact Filppula refused two previous trades.

I hope we can do it again with a dman from another team. Then we can expose Manning as well as MacDonald.

Psysk or Petrovic from Florida would be nice, although I saw a Florida fan today say he'd go 4/4 and expose Demers.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Again, a very small sample... 25G/58P, 12G/48P, 8G/31P, 8G/34P (YTD) when expanded by just two years prior... Significantly more? He is on the downswing of his career, but on an upswing of a two Season Stretch... I'll give you that.

Look, I was impressed last night when I watched him at the Game... I hope he turns out to be worth the $5M... I hope he has a very good Season next year... I want him to work out here, and I do feel batter after the Game than I did before it... But no mater how we shake and bake it, it is $5M for a 33 YO Player nearing his possible Final Contract... Maybe ther will be no better Player available next Season on the Open Market; who knows.

That said... does it concern you in any manner that TB actually lost in Drafting Position and a full Draft Pick to do this? They paid a 4th Rounder and a 7th and than took Streit a flipped him for a lower 4th Round Selection -- Pittsburgh will end up much lower in selection than TB -- They moved down considerably and lost a late Pick entirely; they basically paid to move VF... to dump his $5M next Season. Hextall took over their unwanted Cap Hit and frankly aided our arch Rival in the process.


On a slightly associated note: Last night I was again impressed with the play of Weal... I had fully bought into the notion that he was a great AHL Player that could not succeed in the NHL... He may still not, but I like what he contributed on the Top line and in the ShootOut. Maybe Hexy has scored a hit with his acquisition last Season after all... maybe it wasn't all a Cap/RosterSpot dump move by LAK after all... Hopefully that proves to be the case, and is the case with VF also.

Sounds like you and I are on the same page with the Filppula trade. Also with Weal. Frankly, Weal looks like he belonged on the Flyers all season. Now, that's not meant to make Weal out to be anything great, but he's better than Weise and a few others.

 

[deadhead]

Sounds like you and I are on the same page with the Filppula trade. Also with Weal. Frankly, Weal looks like he belonged on the Flyers all season. Now, that's not meant to make Weal out to be anything great, but he's better than Weise and a few others.

Weal has looked much better at LW than C, but he can't play on the fourth line, he's too slow and small for the PK, he's not a checker, so it's top nine or bust.

You have to build a roster, not the 12 best offensive forwards, but the 12 forwards who build the best team given cap constraints.

 

[Sawdalite]

Sounds like you and I are on the same page with the Filppula trade. Also with Weal. Frankly, Weal looks like he belonged on the Flyers all season. Now, that's not meant to make Weal out to be anything great, but he's better than Weise and a few others.

Weal has looked much better at LW than C, but he can't play on the fourth line, he's too slow and small for the PK, he's not a checker, so it's top nine or bust.

You have to build a roster, not the 12 best offensive forwards, but the 12 forwards who build the best team given cap constraints.

I actually liked Weal on that Top Line... and TBH he did show a problem with a lack of speed that I noticed last game... He made things happen and displayed a lot of heart and energy during the Game... and made a sweet Goal in the SO... I like him as a Top Six Player on an extended trial basis.

A problem I see though is when Konecny returns and he must be placed back into the lineup... I suppose this really comes at a good time with Raffl out 4-6 weeks. If Raffl were playing, I imagine there would be consideration about returning Weal to LV... or can there be another option. Now we will have to scratch two of Weise, Luby or Read... or another Player who gets sent to Hak's doghouse.

Am I missing anything here on player movement?

 

[panayiotis]

tampa cap

So much wrong with this post I don't even know where to start.



Indeed. If Ghost gets bridged they should have over $3m in space with a 24 man roster. And one of these players will be going to Vegas, probably Raffl.

Giroux ~ 8.275
Voracek ~ 8.25
Schenn ~ 5.125
MacDonald ~ 5
Filppula ~ 5
Couturier ~ 4.33
Simmonds ~ 3.975
Read ~ 3.625
Ghost ~ 3.5
Gudas ~ 3.35
Neuvirth ~ 2.5
Raffl ~ 2.35
Weise ~ 2.35
Umberger BUYOUT ~ 1.5
Bellemare ~ 1.45
Cousins ~ 1
Manning ~ 0.975
Lindblom ~ 0.925
Leier ~ 0.9
Laughton ~ 0.9
Konecny ~ 0.894
Provorov ~ 0.894
Sanheim ~ 0.863
Morin ~ 0.863
Stolarz/Lyon ~ 0.85
TOTAL ~ 69.644

tampa is in deep do do cap related. we took a bad contract of there books with no compensation. I would think the team could have gotten at least a second round pick. These gms make me laugh.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

tampa is in deep do do cap related. we took a bad contract of there books with no compensation. I would think the team could have gotten at least a second round pick. These gms make me laugh.

People keep saying this, and I can't understand what it has to do with reality lol.

 

[Tripod]

People keep saying this, and I can't understand what it has to do with reality lol.

No kidding.

We added a 45 point C for free.....that WAS the compensation for taking on cap hit. In the end, we are lucky he did not waive for Montreal or Toronto as TB obviously liked those deals better.

Now hopefully we can grab a D before the ED and expose Manning.

 

[BillDineen]

It wasn't for free. He came with assets.

Tampa net received:

- a slightly worse 4th - a negative to them
- lost a 7th - a negative to them
- paid some salary through the end of the year - a negative to them

They were also willing to trade him to two teams they are in a playoff spot chase with the Flyers and Toronto.

All of the above were benefits to the Flyers now vs simply trading Streit to the Pens directly.

Yzerman was willing to trade a player plus assets now and improve competitors playoff chances at the Lighting's expense, instead of having a potential worse trade ahead of the ED.

 

[Curufinwe]

The Pens and Flyers could not agree on a price for Streit.

 

[BillDineen]

The Pens and Flyers could not agree on a price for Streit.

Where did that come from?

Regardless, Yzerman clearly thought it would be more difficult to move Filppula ahead of the ED or he would not have done the trade hurting his team's playoff chances.

 

[Curufinwe]

MacKenzie talked about it on his latest podcast.

 

[dats81]

Almost everyone here wanted a 2nd for Streit and it's likely that Hextall was in the same boat.

However, the Penguins did not want to add to add to the 4th, which made them bad trade partners. The three-way with Tampa had Tampa adding to the 4th and all parties seem to be happy.
Pretty obvious, isn't it?!

 

[TheTechNoir]

You can tell by the trades he's made and the draft picks he has acquired that he is rebuilding, he's just not tanking.

-Got a 2015 4th in the Hartnell trade (became Vorobyov)
-Got a 2015 3rd for McGinn (became Sandstrom)
-Got a 2017 3rd for Rinaldo
-Got a 2015 2nd and 2016 2nd for Kimmo (became Allison)
-Got 2015 1st + 3rd in the Coburn trade (became Konecny & Tomek)
-Got 2017 4th in the Grossmann/Pronger trade (traded for 2018 4th)
-Got 2017 4th and 7th in the Streit trade

You rebuild by trading veterans for draft picks. 25 draft choices in Hextall's first three years as GM, and he has 11 or 12 picks this year.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/draft_by_team.php?TeamID=70

Which is excellent. I'd rather the team while re-building to not get overwhelmed into a loser culture, waiting for a chance in a generational or near generational draft piece or two.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Nevermind.

 

[Sawdalite]

I have no problem whatsoever with the Draft Picks Hexy has obtained in his deals... and Weal and VF hopefully will prove to be useful pieces on the Roster... And I have already discussed his out of NHL signings and his Draft Selections being fine ones.

Where I hope Hextall can improve is on his Open market FA signing... even with his limited Cap availability.

I do understand the Time and Position of the Team as it presently stands... as opposed to being further along in the process...but he just has to do better than Weise and Gordon when competing against the other GMs for UFAs... I also understand that Weise appeared to be better than he is... and that Gordon could ease G's workload... but that was just not the case.

It just seems that while Hexy is so far ahead of the game in other areas, he is too far lacking in that particular one... Homer and Clarke before him seemed to have a much much better handle on the UFAs. Maybe Hexy could better utilize his Staff on this.

With that said... I again concede the fact that at least early on, the VF and Weal acquisitions seem to have helped fine tune the existing Roster. This OffSeason will tell us more... HAS TO show us more.

JMO

 

[deadhead]

I don't want Hextall trying to sign top FAs, how many have lived up to their contracts - and NHL money is guaranteed money. Just a bad way to use limited resources.

Much better to extend your own because you have more information about their character and upside, and to pick up veterans with a couple years left on their contracts where you know the extent and duration of any overpay.