Here's how I think the AHL should be aligned for next year

[Hoodaha]

the only issue there is San Antonio cannot be moved, Hoodaha, it has nothing to do w/ NHL Expansion, this is what you have through 2017, and even then, will Arizona be there in 2017, and they haven't said whether owning a franchise is something they're even comtemplating.

Yes, I forgot. No teams can ever be moved or ever be sold. Like this offseason. Impossible to move or buy a team, which is why every 2014/15 team is coming back for 2015/16...amiright?

 

[Nerdlinger]

Yes, I forgot. No teams can ever be moved or ever be sold. Like this offseason. Impossible to move or buy a team, which is why every 2014/15 team is coming back for 2015/16...amiright?

Well, to be fair, they are owned by the Spurs. Deep pockets.

 

[Hoodaha]

Well, to be fair, they are owned by the Spurs. Deep pockets.

Just saying it's possible the Avs will find an AHL team to buy and move, not necessarily San Antonio. Obviously, based on this year, if there's a will, there's a way. That's not to say that it's likely, just possible.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Just saying it's possible the Avs will find an AHL team to buy and move, not necessarily San Antonio. Obviously, based on this year, if there's a will, there's a way. That's not to say that it's likely, just possible.

Oh, I agree with you on that. Binghamton, Portland, Rockford, and Springfield seem like ripe targets to me. Although in the case of the last one, they'd probably have to arrange for another team to take the Falcons' place. Springfield is AHL HQ, and it wouldn't do to lose the market entirely like the ECHL did with Trenton.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Oh, I agree with you on that. Binghamton, Portland, Rockford, and Springfield seem like ripe targets to me. Although in the case of the last one, they'd probably have to arrange for another team to take the Falcons' place. Springfield is AHL HQ, and it wouldn't do to lose the market entirely like the ECHL did with Trenton.

nice try, but Portland is not for sale, and never has been owned by an NHL Club, Binghamton, actually is owned by Ottawa and is leased to local owners, as it has been.

 

[Nerdlinger]

nice try, but Portland is not for sale, and never has been owned by an NHL Club, Binghamton, actually is owned by Ottawa and is leased to local owners, as it has been.

I listed those teams as vulnerable due to their independent ownership and middling-to-poor attendance. Portland was actually dead last in the league in attendance this season.

As I understand it, Binghamton is merely affiliated with Ottawa, not owned by them.

 

[Hoodaha]

nice try, but Portland is not for sale, and never has been owned by an NHL Club,

Like Norfolk. When's their 2015-16 AHL schedule come out?

 

[wildcat48]

I listed those teams as vulnerable due to their independent ownership and middling-to-poor attendance. Portland was actually dead last in the league in attendance this season.

As I understand it, Binghamton is merely affiliated with Ottawa, not owned by them.

In reported attendance... big difference from actual attendance where Portland saw an increase in revenue.

 

[ZekeA]

I listed those teams as vulnerable due to their independent ownership and middling-to-poor attendance. Portland was actually dead last in the league in attendance this season.

As I understand it, Binghamton is merely affiliated with Ottawa, not owned by them.

"Nerdlinger":

Correct Binghamton franchise is owned by local people with Ottawa being the parent team supplying the players, coaches Ect...............

 

[IceCapsFanNL]

nice try, but Portland is not for sale, and never has been owned by an NHL Club, Binghamton, actually is owned by Ottawa and is leased to local owners, as it has been.

So Dan, if you a house worth $250,000, and someone offers you say $400,000 or $500,000, might it not go up for sale real quick?

 

[Nerdlinger]

In reported attendance... big difference from actual attendance where Portland saw an increase in revenue.

Well, Portland was dead last in attendance in 2013-14 too, by a substantial margin (2185 per game vs. 3007 for 2nd-to-last Abbotsford). It's not too difficult to improve from that, although they did significantly up their numbers (2983 per game vs. 3262 for 2nd-to-last Oklahoma City). Of course, that's if HockeyDB is to be trusted.

 

[Disengage]

Well, Portland was dead last in attendance in 2013-14 too, by a substantial margin (2185 per game vs. 3007 for 2nd-to-last Abbotsford). It's not too difficult to improve from that, although they did significantly up their numbers (2983 per game vs. 3262 for 2nd-to-last Oklahoma City). Of course, that's if HockeyDB is to be trusted.

Portland played all of 2013-14 in Lewiston, Maine because of lease issues with the CCCC.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Portland played all of 2013-14 in Lewiston, Maine because of lease issues with the CCCC.

That would explain such low numbers that year, but they're still very low even though the team is back in its own arena.

 

[Tommy Hawk]

Oh, I agree with you on that. Binghamton, Portland, Rockford, and Springfield seem like ripe targets to me. Although in the case of the last one, they'd probably have to arrange for another team to take the Falcons' place. Springfield is AHL HQ, and it wouldn't do to lose the market entirely like the ECHL did with Trenton.

Rockford is actually owned by the county and I doubt they would ever be for sale considering they are 90 minutes tops from Chicago and it has been a good relationship for both. (2 stanleys..... ) and the Hawks will never affiliate with the Wolves. I can see Portland or Springfield being sold.

nice try, but Portland is not for sale, and never has been owned by an NHL Club, Binghamton, actually is owned by Ottawa and is leased to local owners, as it has been.

What we have seen, for those that have been on this board and following minor league hockey for years, is that no minor league franchise is ever safe from being sold, relocated, folded, or just plain disappearing.

In reported attendance... big difference from actual attendance where Portland saw an increase in revenue.

The league is not about revenues, it is not even about losses, it is about which owners are willing to accept the business model and the financial results of that model in that market. Even if an team actually makes a profit (profit does not equal revenues), if the profit marin does not meet the owners expectaions and is lower than what is acceptable, they can sell the team.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Rockford is actually owned by the county and I doubt they would ever be for sale considering they are 90 minutes tops from Chicago and it has been a good relationship for both. (2 stanleys..... ) and the Hawks will never affiliate with the Wolves. I can see Portland or Springfield being sold.

Suppose that the Blackhawks buy the Wolves and make them their AHL affiliate. Rockford would then be up for grabs, and the Blues need an affiliate. Since for the Blues, the IceHogs have the same problem as the Wolves (being located in Blackhawks territory), the Blues arrange to purchase Rockford and relocate them to somewhere like Peoria, IL or Independence, MO, while the Blackhawks purchase an ECHL franchise and place them in Rockford to replace the AHL team. So Rockford still has a team, although they've been demoted to the ECHL. Does this seem like a plausible series of events?

 

[BTV]

That would explain such low numbers that year, but they're still very low even though the team is back in its own arena.

They are low because they are accurate. If all teams reported true paid attendance as Portland has begun doing, the Pirates would not be last in the league. Would they be in the bottom third? Absolutely. But these numbers in the 3,000-5,000 range you see coming from certain teams are grossly exaggerated. It is a very telling exercise to pull the "official" attendance numbers from an AHL boxscore, and then take a look at highlights or photos from that same game. You don't have to do it too many times before you become Babu from that Seinfeld episode:

"But where are people? You see people? Show me people! There ARE no people!"

 

[Nerdlinger]

They are low because they are accurate. If all teams reported true paid attendance as Portland has begun doing, the Pirates would not be last in the league. Would they be in the bottom third? Absolutely. But these numbers in the 3,000-5,000 range you see coming from certain teams are grossly exaggerated. It is a very telling exercise to pull the "official" attendance numbers from an AHL boxscore, and then take a look at highlights or photos from that same game. You don't have to do it too many times before you become Babu from that Seinfeld episode:

"But where are people? You see people? Show me people! There ARE no people!"

Hmm. I guess there's no regulation or reporting on this sort of thing. So then it would seem that attendance figures in the AHL and ECHL should be considered with that margin of (intentional) error in mind.

However, even if the Pirates' figures are accurate for this season and all the other teams are overstating their numbers by as much as 2000, that leaves the Pirates at best at 18th place out of 30. So still not exactly overwhelming success in the attendance department.

 

[BTV]

Hmm. I guess there's no regulation or reporting on this sort of thing. So then it would seem that attendance figures in the AHL and ECHL should be considered with that margin of (intentional) error in mind.

However, even if the Pirates' figures are accurate for this season and all the other teams are overstating their numbers by as much as 2000, that leaves the Pirates at best at 18th place out of 30. So still not exactly overwhelming success in the attendance department.

Correct, I am not at all saying the Pirates are shattering box office records. I'm only pointing out that Portland is not the laughing stock of the AHL in attendance as the numbers would seem to indicate. In an honest attendance ranking, Portland likely falls somewhere in the 23rd-27th range, which is decent considering market size but certainly leaves room for improvement. Ticket sales are actually UP from the last season they played in Portland (with inflated numbers), so that is encouraging. The strategy of putting value back in the product - combined with healing the damage done by the lease dispute - did appear to start to turn the corner and I'm hoping that momentum rolls into next season.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Correct, I am not at all saying the Pirates are shattering box office records. I'm only pointing out that Portland is not the laughing stock of the AHL in attendance as the numbers would seem to indicate. In an honest attendance ranking, Portland likely falls somewhere in the 23rd-27th range, which is decent considering market size but certainly leaves room for improvement. Ticket sales are actually UP from the last season they played in Portland (with inflated numbers), so that is encouraging. The strategy of putting value back in the product - combined with healing the damage done by the lease dispute - did appear to start to turn the corner and I'm hoping that momentum rolls into next season.

So the question is whether or not they'll recover in time before an NHL team like the Avalanche decides to buy them out. Although attendance didn't matter to the Kings when they dragged the Monarchs out of Manchester.

 

[Hoodaha]

So the question is whether or not they'll recover in time before an NHL team like the Avalanche decides to buy them out. Although attendance didn't matter to the Kings when they dragged the Monarchs out of Manchester.

I think it's safe to say that very few independent teams are safe from the ambitions of NHL teams, regardless of attendance. That said, the teams with the worst attendance are most likely to be targeted. If you were losing money year after year and an NHL team waved a bunch of it in your face, don't you think you'd at least consider selling?

 

[Nerdlinger]

I think it's safe to say that very few independent teams are safe from the ambitions of NHL teams, regardless of attendance. That said, the teams with the worst attendance are most likely to be targeted. If you were losing money year after year and an NHL team waved a bunch of it in your face, don't you think you'd at least consider selling?

Agreed. I do believe that those 4 AHL franchises are the most likely to be targeted by an NHL team in search of a closer affiliate.

I admit that Manchester's case was different. Despite their relative success at the box office, the fact that they were already owned by an NHL team (and a Pacific one at that) made them vulnerable to relocation.

As for the safest independent teams, number one has to be Hershey. Lake Erie and San Antonio are next safest due their being owned by NBA teams. Other safe teams include those which are already successful draws and close to their current affiliate (Charlotte, Grand Rapids, Lehigh Valley, Providence). After this group comes the three successful draws which are not closest to their affiliate (Chicago, Milwaukee, and Syracuse). These 3 markets are not likely to be completely vacated by the AHL, but it's possible they could be bought out by closer NHL teams and/or end up swapping franchises like Adirondack did after the 2013-14 season.

AHL franchises already owned by NHL teams but vulnerable to relocation include those which are mediocre draws and/or far from their parent (Albany, Bridgeport, and Hartford for the 1st reason; St. John's for the 2nd reason; and Utica for both). I think both Manitoba and San Jose are also vulnerable because they share an arena with their owner, which is not ideal from a scheduling perspective at least. If the Pacific Northwest ends up being colonized, I could see Bakersfield and Stockton potentially being drawn northward. The rest (Iowa, Ontario, Rochester, San Diego, Texas, Toronto, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton) have little reason to relocate unless they prove to be unsuccessful draws, and even then their proximity to their parents gives them insurance.

 

[Tommy Hawk]

Milwaukee and Chicago are an hour flight away from their affiliates so while not next door, it is not like it is a 3 or 4 hour flight.

Rockford is close to Chicago and while their draw may not be that big I will use what the low drawing eastern team claim all the time - "They have a good percent of capacity."

 

[Nerdlinger]

Milwaukee and Chicago are an hour flight away from their affiliates so while not next door, it is not like it is a 3 or 4 hour flight.

Rockford is close to Chicago and while their draw may not be that big I will use what the low drawing eastern team claim all the time - "They have a good percent of capacity."

Good points. Rockford is not the most vulnerable. That "honor" probably belongs to Portland, sorry to say. Binghamton and Rockford are at least close to their parents. Like Portland, Springfield is far from its parent, but they're at AHL HQ and so have some protection.

 

[HansH]

So the question is whether or not they'll recover in time before an NHL team like the Avalanche decides to buy them out. Although attendance didn't matter to the Kings when they dragged the Monarchs out of Manchester.

Sure it did. They'll get 8-9k a game in Ontario. They used to get that much and more in Manchester, but the attendance there has fallen to about half what it was. So, they're putting an ECHL team in where they're getting what would be solid ECHL attendance, and an AHL team in where they're getting what would be near league-leading AHL attendance.

I'd say attendance mattered a great deal here.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Sure it did. They'll get 8-9k a game in Ontario. They used to get that much and more in Manchester, but the attendance there has fallen to about half what it was. So, they're putting an ECHL team in where they're getting what would be solid ECHL attendance, and an AHL team in where they're getting what would be near league-leading AHL attendance.

I'd say attendance mattered a great deal here.

I meant that even though Manchester still does at least moderately well in attendance among AHL teams, that didn't save them from being swapped with an ECHL team. So even if Portland improves significantly in attendance, that won't necessarily save them or prevent them from being swapped too.