Post-Game Talk: Here we are. WPG 3 - DAL too much

[JetsFan815]

The only thing you missed in your narrative is that the Jets and Stars have been following almost identical development paths. The Star came just short of the playoffs over several years, then squeaked into the final wild card spot before dropping back again last season missing again and are just now taking a step forward.

I 100% disagree with this. Stars not making the playoffs last season was due to having some historically bad goaltending and poor luck. The team got better but were just unlucky. It is not like the Jets where we iced an objectively worse team

Most observers believed the Jets were likely to take a step back this season introducing so many rookies to the lineup. Where you are wrong is where the Jets have failed to beat the averages drafting. They have introduced 8 rookies over the last 3 seasons, which is an extremely high rate. Even with that the Jets will likely be rated top 5 in prospect pools.

Why is that fact not controversial? Last season Jets barely squeaked into the playoffs on the penultimate day of the regular season and got blown out 4-0 in the first round. So if the team that we were icing this season was even marginally worse and expected to "take a step back" then that means that Chevy had given up on the playoffs before the season even started.

The only Chevy rookies who have made an impact on the NHL on the Jets are Scheifele, Trouba, Lowry and I guess Ehlers. That's 4. I don't think that is significantly beating the averages for a team that has drafted in the top 10 so often in the last 5 years. Just a cursory glance at teams with similar records to ours that draft in similar position as us, Ottawa has 4 that meet the criteria, CBJ has 3 and these two teams didn't have a 1st round pick in one of the last 5 years. Granted that is not an exhaustive analysis as I don't have the time right now to through each team but I am open to changing my mind if someone can show me otherwise. My statement was based on what we have seen from the Jets draftees, I did not refer to the prospect pool. Jets may prove me wrong with the other guys they drafted but looking at the prospects in the NHL so far, I find it hard to believe that we are above average on that front (and remember being above-average is the bare minimum not the expected state, to make up for how poor the Jets are on two other ways of improving a team i.e trades and free agents, the Jets need to have atleast a top 25% drafting and developing record to make up for it)

What is worth having a discussion about is should Chevy go all in on the future rather than trying to bridge the older core with the young guys of the future. The one comparison with the Stars that is actually helpful, is their willingness to trade away some of the established stars and leadership on a better chance for the future in the Seguin trade. Of course this would lead to even further setbacks and barking from the gallery. And you have to be pretty lucky to have a team trade you a future #1 center, but that's on the Bruins. But a gamble on the future might be worth it, if we are willing to deal with the pain. I remain very skeptical of that however.

Look, this is a decision that should have been made 3 years ago if he was going to do that. Getting rid of the core now just means we wasted so many years when we could have decided to go "all in on the future" 3 years ago and spent the last 3 years drafting more players and developing them. The fact that this is even a discussion during Year 5 of Chevy's reign as a GM is ridiculous. These kinds of convos happen in year 1 or year 2 when the GM is trying to figure out the direction of the team

Edit: And yes I refuse to lynch the coach who is trying to make the best of the personnel he's being given and I refuse to lynch the players (like a lot of people here are doing)- many of whom are not being put in a position to succeed due to some baffling decisions made by the management during the summer

 

[Huffer]

The Stars main problem last year was almost entirely their goaltending. So Jim Nill attempted to fix the problem by acquiring Niemi. How long has goaltending been a problem for the Jets, and what has Chevy done about it? If you're satisfied with the answer "drafted Hellebuyck and signed Hutchinson" then you may be missing my point.

Look at what Jim Nill has done to improve the Stars since he got there. Sharp, Spezza, Niemi, Seguin - and that's just the trades! And it's only been 2 years!

I think you missed my point though. When he originally made the Spezza and Seguin deals he was being hailed as a hero and amazing. Then the team didn't make the playoffs (goaltending was a big factor) and the rhetoric died. Now the team is playing well and he's a hero again.

The massive swings from hero to zero (for everything, coaches, players, etc) is what I think is misplaced.

 

[Derfel*]

The massive swings from hero to zero (for everything, coaches, players, etc) is what I think is misplaced.

Welcome to sports fandom.

 

[JetsFan815]

The Stars main problem last year was almost entirely their goaltending. So Jim Nill attempted to fix the problem by acquiring Niemi. How long has goaltending been a problem for the Jets, and what has Chevy done about it? If you're satisfied with the answer "drafted Hellebuyck and signed Hutchinson" then you may be missing my point.

Look at what Jim Nill has done to improve the Stars since he got there. Sharp, Spezza, Niemi, Seguin - and that's just the trades! And it's only been 2 years!

Exactly, at this point I don't see how anyone can disagree with the fact that Nill is easily atleast a top-3 GM in the league. Every time he gets a chance Nill identifies a problem and takes action to address it- you already mentioned his swift and decisive action to improve their goaltending and strength down the middle, I'd add how much he has improved the Stars D in just 2 years. And I'm not just talking about Klingberg, acquiring Demers without giving up much, signing Oduya, expect him to add another veternan D at the deadline.

 

[Grind]

Dallas missed the playoff last year despite being a very strong posession team.

So far we're trending also as a very strong posession team that runs a risk of missing the post season.

That's pretty analogous to me.

Are we worse then the team at the end of last year? yes.

Are we dramatically worse then the team at the end of last year? Probably not.

Looks like we're tracking to be undone by our penalties and PK the most.

Personally if i'm looking for culprits last game it's Stuart and Chairot.

Chairot has looked this season like he did in camp for me last season (which was brutal). He looks really slow to make decisions.

 

[larmex99]

Draft and develop is not fast or easy. Jets are not going to buy a team or spend to the cap until they have a reason to. Hopefully that doesn't happen because the only thing that will throw them off of their plan is empty seats.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Where you are wrong is where the Jets have failed to beat the averages drafting. They have introduced 8 rookies over the last 3 seasons, which is an extremely high rate.

The way to measure as to whether we beat the averages drafting is not how many rookies have we introduced. It's how many rookies have we introduced that are successful in the NHL and/or are benefiting the team in a measurably positive way.

Anyone can stuff the NHL roster with the AHL team. That doesn't make them successful draft and develop GMs. In many markets, that would get the GM fired.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Dallas missed the playoff last year despite being a very strong posession team.

So far we're trending also as a very strong posession team that runs a risk of missing the post season.

That's pretty analogous to me.

Are we worse then the team at the end of last year? yes.

Are we dramatically worse then the team at the end of last year? Probably not.

Looks like we're tracking to be undone by our penalties and PK the most.

Pretty well my thoughts exactly.

Personally if i'm looking for culprits last game it's Stuart and Chairot.

Chairot has looked this season like he did in camp for me last season (which was brutal). He looks really slow to make decisions.

Actually thought Chiarot was pretty decent last night.

The problem is that he's really bad with the puck, probably worse than Stu to be honest. He was back with Buff in the third, and I hope he's kept there for good.

 

[Andy6]

The problem is that Dallas is a really good team with elite scorers that our guys could only do so much about. In other words, the loss last night was a narrow one to a very good team. I wouldn't magnify its significance just because it came on the heels of a bunch of other losses and mediocre performances (such as the Leafs game, even). The Jets were looking quite a bit better through most of the game. They'll start a win streak soon. Just keep calm and carry on.

 

[Gm0ney]

I think you missed my point though. When he originally made the Spezza and Seguin deals he was being hailed as a hero and amazing. Then the team didn't make the playoffs (goaltending was a big factor) and the rhetoric died. Now the team is playing well and he's a hero again.

The massive swings from hero to zero (for everything, coaches, players, etc) is what I think is misplaced.

I think most objective hockey fans would've still said Jim Nill was doing a good job despite their goaltending troubles last year. I'm sure some folks were probably looking at the Stars poor season as evidence of the failure of Jim Nill's reckless wheeling-and-dealing management style...and as proof that Chevy's patient approach is superior.

If you had to build a winner and got to choose between the 2011-12 Jets and the 2011-12 Stars, you'd probably take the Jets. What team would you choose today?

 

[Whileee]

I think most objective hockey fans would've still said Jim Nill was doing a good job despite their goaltending troubles last year. I'm sure some folks were probably looking at the Stars poor season as evidence of the failure of Jim Nill's reckless wheeling-and-dealing management style...and as proof that Chevy's patient approach is superior.

If you had to build a winner and got to choose between the 2011-12 Jets and the 2011-12 Stars, you'd probably take the Jets. What team would you choose today?

Today (i.e. for the next couple of years), Dallas. In 2-3 years from now, Jets. They have different windows.

I could see Dallas taking a run at Buff in the off-season if he's not extended or traded by the Jets. They are in a "win-now" window with Seguin, Benn and Spezza at their peaks.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Chairot has looked this season like he did in camp for me last season (which was brutal). He looks really slow to make decisions.

Chiarot's not a top 4 D when away from Buff? Chiarot is coming back down after an abnormally good stretch? Color me shocked. No wait the other thing, it was predictable. As I said all off-season.

As was predictable in the off-season this team lacks depth. The team was forced into forcing young guys like Petan and Chiarot into roles they may not have been ready for because of not addressing the depth issues. That's not even getting into forcing non NHL calibre players onto the roster with no options to switch them out.

You can go for a youth movement AND still have depth. Jets did not do that and are now paying the price. Making the young players earn the minutes is always a better strategy, the mediocre vets can always be waived once the youngsters do that. But backing yourself into a corner is just dumb. As I and many others here predicted all along. Oh well.

It's not all doom and gloom as the Jets are still a decent team, but they way the Jets keep handcuffing themselves at every step for 5 years now is just mind-boggling.

 

[allan5oh]

I'm starting to really get pessimistic about a lot of things:

- Too many high scoring chances against. Odd man rushes, breakaways, in close chances
- Pavelec has been playing horrible. Scrambling, ending up on his back and stomach. The Pavelec of old
- Still can't keep away from penalties
- Our defensive core doesn't seem to want to gel. We had better defensive play last December when a lot of guys were injured

Out of all this only our top 6 is really playing well. In the central it won't be enough. They have to turn it around soon.

 

[BigZ65]

It's incredibly frustrating to watch this team because I believe our top 2 lines and best 4 D (even though they don't get much time together) can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league, and they do pretty much every night. For some reason it was decided to not provide them with any support. It's going to get ugly if there are any significant injuries in that group. It's already ugly with those guys in the lineup.

Enstrom is declining fast but still good with the puck, his feet can't keep up with the play in 15-16. This was on display last night.

 

[Gm0ney]

Today (i.e. for the next couple of years), Dallas. In 2-3 years from now, Jets. They have different windows.

I could see Dallas taking a run at Buff in the off-season if he's not extended or traded by the Jets. They are in a "win-now" window with Seguin, Benn and Spezza at their peaks.

If Ladd and Buff walk away for nothing, I don't think the Jets window is in 2-3 years either.

Nichushkin is 20
Shore and Faksa are 21
Oleksiak is 22
Klingberg and Seguin are 23
Roussel is 25
Benn is 26

How past-their-prime are these guys going to be in 3 years?

 

[Huffer]

I think most objective hockey fans would've still said Jim Nill was doing a good job despite their goaltending troubles last year. I'm sure some folks were probably looking at the Stars poor season as evidence of the failure of Jim Nill's reckless wheeling-and-dealing management style...and as proof that Chevy's patient approach is superior.

If you had to build a winner and got to choose between the 2011-12 Jets and the 2011-12 Stars, you'd probably take the Jets. What team would you choose today?

Looks like we are in agreement. I never indicated Nill wasn't doing a good job. I think he is going a very good job.

As for which team to take today, that's a good question. Dallas is probably setup better to win now, and the Jets maybe better suited to win in a few years (especially if the decision on Ladd and/or Buff is to move them for additional pieces). Although, if the Jets decide to keep Ladd and Buff, and then trade a prospect or two or picks for additional "now" help, the Jets could become a lot better now as well.

IMO, all I am saying is that the swings from amazing to terrible are much too drastic.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Enstrom is declining fast but still good with the puck, his feet can't keep up with the play in 15-16. This was on display last night.

I'm glad someone else noticed this.

 

[Board Bard]

Chairot has looked this season like he did in camp for me last season (which was brutal). He looks really slow to make decisions.

The worst play I saw last night was by Chiarot (and I'm a guy who has nothing good to say about Stuart, Thorburn, Peluso, Pavelec). He was in the circle to Pavelec's left, the puck was at his feet, and he waits and waits for various members of the enemy to converge on him before he does anything. Then when he does something finally, that something is to pass the puck to a Dallas defenceman at the point like he's on the Stars payroll. Complete bush league.

 

[BigZ65]

The worst play I saw last night was by Chiarot (and I'm a guy who has nothing good to say about Stuart, Thorburn, Peluso, Pavelec). He was in the circle to Pavelec's left, the puck was at his feet, and he waits and waits for various members of the enemy to converge on him before he does anything. Then when he does something finally, that something is to pass the puck to a Dallas defenceman at the point like he's on the Stars payroll. Complete bush league.

Once he settled the puck between the circles with Dallas on a change and then put a blind pass 6 feet behind Byfuglien who had the only Stars forechecker engaged in the play at the time on him already.

Just not a NHLer.

 

[garret9]

Basic numbers so far this year for those not into fancy stats:

 

[Derfel*]

Basic numbers so far this year for those not into fancy stats:

Those are still pretty fancy-lookin' - you got anything simpler?

 

[garret9]

Want relative to TOI:

 

[Grind]

Chiarot's not a top 4 D when away from Buff? Chiarot is coming back down after an abnormally good stretch? Color me shocked. No wait the other thing, it was predictable. As I said all off-season.

preaching to the choir, though i'll admit i was drinking the Chairot koolaid a bit by the end of last season. I think he'd be fine as a number three, we just have to sort out of the pairs. Redundent with stu though. one of them needs to go.

and FFS can we dress postma? Guy munches through softee's.

As was predictable in the off-season this team lacks depth. The team was forced into forcing young guys like Petan and Chiarot into roles they may not have been ready for because of not addressing the depth issues. That's not even getting into forcing non NHL calibre players onto the roster with no options to switch them out.

I don't understand how the team was forced to do that, they just decided to. The quality of players available on PTO' when camp opened is pretty obvious evidence that the team certainly wasn't forced.

[quote[You can go for a youth movement AND still have depth. Jets did not do that and are now paying the price. Making the young players earn the minutes is always a better strategy, the mediocre vets can always be waived once the youngsters do that. But backing yourself into a corner is just dumb. As I and many others here predicted all along. Oh well.

It's not all doom and gloom as the Jets are still a decent team, but they way the Jets keep handcuffing themselves at every step for 5 years now is just mind-boggling.[/QUOTE]

well i agree a little, i still don't think it's the young guys that are most of the problem.

Afterall, top to bottom we are still a strong posession team, which essentially means were getting undone by things like special teams or goaltending.

Our pk's been dreadful. Our goalies were keeping it a float (unsustainably) and now that's plummeting back to reality, which is worst in the league. Worst Pk + Most penalites = we're gonna lose a lot of games.

I still have faith that our young guys should be "good enough" given what else is ont he team if we were able to get league average Penalties, PK ability and Goal tending.

one the problems is non of the young guys help with any of those weaknesses.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I don't understand how the team was forced to do that, they just decided to. The quality of players available on PTO' when camp opened is pretty obvious evidence that the team certainly wasn't forced.

The Jets chose to force themselves into this situation is what I mean. There literally was no other option but to force young guys into roles when they didn't sign those guys. They had no choice but to play Petan and Copp on the 4th line, ready or not (ok they might have went Armia and Copp but same difference). No choice but to put Chiarot in top 4 to start year, ready or not. They backed themselves into a corner for no reason at all.

 

[Grind]

wow
our Corsi%'s are ridiculous.

Our bottom two lines range from 39%-47% which is god awful. like really really bad.

and our top two lines range from 53%-58% which is extremely good.


Lowry and Burmi both being weak posession players is really sinking us.

This is quite odd considering both were posession monsters in previous years.

I suppose we could hold out hope that stafford is so bad he's sinking the two of them but that seems unlikely.


NOTE: the numbers are for the season, not just this game