Heeeeere comes expansion! - Part II

[Fugu]

You act as if it is the league that just decides to move a team. If the Florida owner doesntbwam5bto move or sell, they aren't goingvanywhere.

Florida has possibly 5K tickets sold per game. That franchise is bleeding money right now. The owner will have to decide how long he wants to underwrite it, so no, I don't think it's out the question that things may not improve.

 

[Brodie]

They still want their toy to be worth considerably more when they decide to sell it in 20-30 years. It's an investment. Not for yearly profits, but for an increased franchise value. Huge losses don't help that...but small profits and secondary revenue should increase your franchise's value...and therefore make you many many pennies (you Yanks still have those eh?).

When you're buying-in at $500M....it's not too easy to get that return on your investment.

Franchise values have risen without any regard for inflation or actual profits of the teams involved. They've risen across all sports, all leagues, all countries, all teams. There is nothing to suggest that financial performance in any way impacts the value of the franchise. Rich men want to pay lots of money to be part of a very select club, that's the long and short of it.

 

[Fugu]

because the ultimate truth is that this isn't a business being sold, it's a toy for the superwealthy. Ballmer will never make a penny on the Clippers and he could not care less, the same will be true of any potential NHL expansion owner.

That's not true, Brodie. How many owners have lost a ton of money and decided they just weren't going to keep doing it?

Not all of them made that money back on the franchise sale.

Franchise values have risen without any regard for inflation or actual profits of the teams involved. They've risen across all sports, all leagues, all countries, all teams. There is nothing to suggest that financial performance in any way impacts the value of the franchise. Rich men want to pay lots of money to be part of a very select club, that's the long and short of it.

This is somewhat true, but if you consider the turnover in the NHL (I really don't know the other leagues), say over the past two decades, most teams have sold at least once.

Which ones have not? Detroit, Boston, Chicago, LA (95), Philadelphia..... NYI, NYR & Carolina? Can't remember their last sale dates. Colorado has been somewhat stable in that time period.

If your statement is true, most of those other owners should not have cashed in, and they should have hung on to the franchises for far longer than they did.

 

[gstommylee]

Florida has possibly 5K tickets sold per game. That franchise is bleeding money right now. The owner will have to decide how long he wants to underwrite it, so no, I don't think it's out the question that things may not improve.

how long is florida's lease 15 years left?

 

[brewski420]

We're never going to get the details while the process is ongoing. Once the decision is made we will see the winning bidders plans. Doubt we'll ever know the details of the unsuccessful bids. Speculation is all we have.

That is a very good point although I in the case of a Seattle failed bid I imagine it will be somewhat obvious. And I also believe that those that fail may feel free to explain why they failed.

 

[Fugu]

how long is florida's lease 15 years left?

That sounds about right, but the county may be amenable to letting them out. Remember that Florida has asked for additional subsidy, and the county is doing a study to see how the arena would do without the Panthers.

 

[gstommylee]

That sounds about right, but the county may be amenable to letting them out. Remember that Florida has asked for additional subsidy, and the county is doing a study to see how the arena would do without the Panthers.

Yea 15 years with 5k a game and 2770 for tv viewing. I don't see how the owner would be willing to continue with numbers like that

 

[Confucius]

That is a very good point although I in the case of a Seattle failed bid I imagine it will be somewhat obvious. And I also believe that those that fail may feel free to explain why they failed.

I doubt we here something along the lines, we bid 250 million because we thought that was fair for our market.

 

[Slot]

Tampa. 1992. No arena. Beats out Hamilton with Copps. Didnt balk at the $50M Expansion fee. The Ice Palace (now called Amalie Arena) didnt open until 1996. Lightning playing for 4yrs in what they nicknamed the Thunderdome. A dome covered baseball stadium.

Hamilton didn't balk at expansion fee but the rumoured indemnification fee, which while never reveals, was rumoured to be steep. The NHL refused to tell Hamilton what the fee was until after the bidding process. The Hamilton folks said heck with that and rightly so.

 

[JMROWE]

Well, if we back up the truck a bit here to when Bell/Rogers purchased MLSE requiring BOG approval, and Im just guessing here but based on how the league operates they wouldve been remiss in not getting Bell & Rogers to retract from the previous regimes stance pursuant to territorial rights. Signed off on it, agreed to the leagues position & the By-Law..... As you'll recall, formerly MLSE claiming the NHL Constitutional Clause trumped the NHL By-Law that was created in the 90's pursuant to this very issue. That no, all it took was a majority vote, not a super-majority vote for incursion into any given teams 50m radius territory. Further, that the NHL itself, no one team would decide what indemnification if any was to be paid.

So lets just pretend that happened. No obstacle from MLSE. Take whatever the NHL dishes & decides that their entitled to be it a building & team in Downsview, Markam or wherever in the GTA, York Region or Hamilton. And if Hamilton, no problem from Pegula in Buffalo provided you pay some indemnification..... Next, lets pretend there are no questions swirling still around Graeme Roustan with respect to his integrity... purportedly mis-lead Markham City Council, an Attorney from the NHL sending Roustan a stern letter of rebuke in denying that Gary Bettman had told him he was "100% behind the building of a new arena in Markham" - words to that affect - that he claimed to be "this close" to buying the Montreal Canadiens from Gillett, news to Molsons & the other bidders, his crazy business plan for this new arena claiming he could make a go of it sans an NHL team & so on & so forth....

Frankly sparky I wouldnt bother engaging in any speculation of "IF" Roustans for real because I dont think he is, his eyes far bigger than his reach. How is he going to come up with final draft plans including location & land somewhere in the GTA/York, having recently said he has eye on 3 possible areas, not mentioning where, all ethereal.... and do that all within the next what? 4-6wks? He also contentiously suggested that maybe MLSE isnt entitled to any indemnification at all? Up to the league. Ya. That'll put you in real solid with MLSE Graeme.... So youve got this guy who's already ticked off Markham & its citizenry along with the NHL itself. If he wants to apply, tie up $10M in an Application Fee & only get $8M back when it takes the NHL all of about 5 minutes to reject it & pocket two million bucks, g'head Mr. Roustan. Lets see what ya got. Sorry, but I just dont take this guy very seriously at all. Quite the history, track record of lawsuits etc. Not that that would necessarily disqualify him from joining the NHL Merry Band of Thieves but still. Just dont see it happening.

I think whats more likely is that eventually this Marriage Made in Hell between Rogers & Bell when it winds up in Divorce Court, that accommodations will then be made for a Toronto2 NHL Franchise. Until then, maybe in 5-7yrs, no movement. Not unless out of a clear blue sky some seriously monied players just magically appear & who have their acts completely together.

I agree I have never taken Roustan or any Toronto2 team idea seriously & the only reason a Toronto2 idea popped up was when it was looking like the coyotes where going to move to Hamilton & all of a sudden Toronto wanted a 2nd team at the expense of Hamilton .

The thing is that a Toronto (GTA.)2 team would cost well over a billion dollars to make happen & you got MLSE. that just plain won't let it happen & don't by this crap that the Leafs have no veto power the fact is they do only because they are the league's most valuable franchise if they where not then no they would have no veto power but sense they are there is no chance of a TO2 happening .

There will be a 2nd NHL. team in southern Ontario but won't be anywhere in the Toronto (GTA.) a 2nd team would most likely play in Hamilton at the FOC. for while then when it comes time to build a new arena it most likely be built on the west mountain or somewhere ether downtown or on the out skirts of the city but the fact is Hamilton is a centralized location with easy accessibility & would be perfect location as a regional team for the western side of lake Ontario & I believe the NHL. knows that .

 

[MarkhamNHL]

I agree I have never taken Roustan or any Toronto2 team idea seriously & the only reason a Toronto2 idea popped up was when it was looking like the coyotes where going to move to Hamilton & all of a sudden Toronto wanted a 2nd team at the expense of Hamilton .

The thing is that a Toronto (GTA.)2 team would cost well over a billion dollars to make happen & you got MLSE. that just plain won't let it happen & don't by this crap that the Leafs have no veto power the fact is they do only because they are the league's most valuable franchise if they where not then no they would have no veto power but sense they are there is no chance of a TO2 happening .

There will be a 2nd NHL. team in southern Ontario but won't be anywhere in the Toronto (GTA.) a 2nd team would most likely play in Hamilton at the FOC. for while then when it comes time to build a new arena it most likely be built on the west mountain or somewhere ether downtown or on the out skirts of the city but the fact is Hamilton is a centralized location with easy accessibility & would be perfect location as a regional team for the western side of lake Ontario & I believe the NHL. knows that .

Hamilton is central alright. central to being in sabres and leafs territory. end of story

 

[Jeffrey93]

Franchise values have risen without any regard for inflation or actual profits of the teams involved. They've risen across all sports, all leagues, all countries, all teams. There is nothing to suggest that financial performance in any way impacts the value of the franchise. Rich men want to pay lots of money to be part of a very select club, that's the long and short of it.

That's why I said small profits.

If your franchise has lost $30M a year for 25 years....I wouldn't expect a huge profit from selling them. Your franchise wouldn't have increased in value as much as others...and you likely have some debts to pay with the cash from the sale.

The Panthers (according to Forbes) declined in value by 21% in one year. They are the only team that Forbes claims lost value, however the Islanders increased in value by 54%, the Blackhawks 32%....while the Sharks only increased by 5%, Devils 3%, and like I said...the Panthers -21%.

How you run the franchise/business is going to have an impact on the return you're going to get when you want to cash-out. It is about being in select group...but it's also a chance ot make money at the end. Lots of money if you do it right.

Hamilton is central alright. central to being in sabres and leafs territory. end of story

I think it's better to be central between two....than almost right on top of one.

 

[ForumNamePending]

I can't help but have the feeling that once Seattle gets the arena situation sorted, the NHL's expansion process will quickly conclude and Seattle, along with Vegas, will be welcomed into the league.

IMHO the only other viable option at this point is Quebec, but similar to Winnipeg, I think in order for QC to get back in it will take the perfect storm.

 

[JMROWE]

Hamilton is central alright. central to being in sabres and leafs territory. end of story

MLSE. (Leafs) would gladly give up there territory & accept an NHL. team in Hamilton if it means keeping a 2nd NHL. team out of Toronto (GTA.) so in my opinion Hamilton just has to worry about making a deal with the sabers & oh by the way a Hamilton NHL. teams out of town fan base would be mostly people from Kitchener\Waterloo Area , Guelph , Brantford & the whole of southwestern Ontario those are the vast untapped NHL. markets that can have easy access to an NHL. team in Hamilton .

 

[MarkhamNHL]

I think it's better to be central between two....than almost right on top of one.

not really... buffalo is more at threat with a team in hamilton than it will ever be with 2 in TO

 

[Jeffrey93]

I can't help but have the feeling that once Seattle gets the arena situation sorted, the NHL's expansion process will quickly conclude and Seattle, along with Vegas, will be welcomed into the league.

For Quebec to get back in the league I think it is going to take a Winnipeg like perfect storm

Could be right. Or more than 2 expansion teams.

2 for 2017, 2 more in 2019.

They might get passed over regardless, can never predict what this league will do.

 

[MarkhamNHL]

MLSE. (Leafs) would gladly give up there territory & accept an NHL. team in Hamilton if it means keeping a 2nd NHL. team out of Toronto (GTA.) so in my opinion Hamilton just has to worry about making a deal with the Sabres & oh by the way a Hamilton NHL. teams out of town fan base would be mostly people from Kitchener\Waterloo Area , Guelph , Brantford & the whole of southwestern Ontario those are the vast untapped NHL. markets that can have easy access to an NHL. team in Hamilton .

you keep forgetting on purpose that the leafs have no say, they have 1 vote.. and that's a FACT, not an opinion

 

[Jeffrey93]

not really... buffalo is more at threat with a team in hamilton than it will ever be with 2 in TO

Not really.

A new arena wouldn't be built minutes from First Niagara Center.

A competing venue to the ACC would be more damaging than a hardly noticeable blip on the ticket sales in Buffalo. Especially when you factor in that they get a few extra Platinum games that will be soldout.

 

[berklon]

At this point does it really matter about if Hamilton is infringing on Buffalo and/or Toronto or not... or the location of a potential new arena and what issues it may raise?

It seems like a pointless argument right now when their hasn't even been a rumour of someone wanting to bring a team to Hamilton in the first place.

 

[Killion]

you keep forgetting on purpose that the leafs have no say, they have 1 vote.. and that's a FACT, not an opinion

Hopefully Rogers/Bell are a little more open than the previous regime, as it was their opinion the NHL Constitution requiring a 100% majority trumps the By-Law created in the 90's requiring a 2/3rds majority vote. Whats more, it was MLSE's position that as they were not present at the meeting when that By-Law was passed, they didnt endorse it, dont agree with it..... see you in court if you try to enforce it & infringe upon our territory. So theres that......

Now, as I said earlier, it wouldve been wise for the NHL when approving the Bell/Rogers majority in MLSE that they sign-off on the By-Law & comply, otherwise, NHL wont approve their ownership. Did the NHL do that?... No idea, but legally, these guys arent dummys so Im guessing so. Even if they didnt, Id hazard to guess Rogers & Bell would welcome 1, 2 or 3 more clubs to Canada, all the more content & lets face it, they could use it right about now with ratings plummeting & people tuning out.

I think as well MarkhamNHL that you & guys like JMROWE & J93 etc are actually on the same side here. Not really a question of "Markham or Hamilton" or "Downsview or Hamilton" or whatever. Toronto could easily support another team along with Hamilton, best location the Northeast quadrant & that would be Markham & environs. 3 Teams. Toronto, Markham & Hamilton (Quebec City as well of course). I dont see it happening this go round of Expansion but Im certain it will eventually come to fruition. Hamilton is the least of all evils in so far as the ACC & Ricoh is concerned so thats a plus. They do have a building that could suffice for 5yrs or longer depending on how much they wanted to drop on reno's but for sure, they'll need a new one & I dont see that as being a problem whatsoever. Nice suburban arena up in York as well, Markham, absolutely viable with an NHL team as its anchor tenant.

 

[gstommylee]

Could be right. Or more than 2 expansion teams.

2 for 2017, 2 more in 2019.

They might get passed over regardless, can never predict what this league will do.

if its going to be 2 for 2017 and 2 for 2019. Then its Vegas Seattle 2017 quebec GTA2 2019. It would be completely unfair for there to be 1-2 years of empty arena (sodo arena) and 2 years of empty arena for Ray B. And debt repayment for sodo arena can't begin until there is a major tenant playing there.

if NHL wants Sodo arena to happen for a NHL team, making them wait till 2019 for team start repaying debt will not go well with seattle city council folks.

 

[BattleBorn]

if its going to be 2 for 2017 and 2 for 2019. Then its Vegas Seattle 2017 quebec GTA2 2019. It would be completely unfair for there to be 1-2 years of empty arena (sodo arena) and 2 years of empty arena for Ray B. And debt repayment for sodo arena can't begin until there is a major tenant playing there.

if NHL wants Sodo arena to happen for a NHL team, making them wait till 2019 for team start repaying debt will not go well with seattle city council folks.

You do realize that making QC wait will create an empty arena in QC, right?

 

[gstommylee]

You do realize that making QC wait will create an empty arena in QC, right?

Yes but its a bigger issue here though in Seattle especially with sodo arena. 1-2 years of empty arena how is the arena suppose be have debt being paid off if team won't begin playing until after year or year 2 of the arena. SCC might have an issue with that. if league is gonna wait till after 2017 to award Seattle a team then you risk sodo arena expiring or Ray B walking away taking the arena plan with him.

 

[BattleBorn]

Yes but its a bigger issue here though in Seattle especially with sodo arena. 1-2 years of empty arena how is the arena suppose be have debt being paid off if team won't begin playing until after year or year 2 of the arena. SCC might have an issue with that.

Ah, got it.

I'm putting that information in the file I've got marked "Things Seattle Is Doing To Make Getting a Team As Difficult As Possible."

 

[Killion]

if its going to be 2 for 2017 and 2 for 2019. Then its Vegas Seattle 2017 quebec GTA2 2019.

.... gotta disagree with you there tommy. My monies riding on Quebec/Vegas for 2016 or 2017, followed by Seattle & possibly Houston for 2017 or 2018. Youve also got the very real distinct possibility of 2 teams being on the move & goodness only knows what kind of a spanner that could throw into the works. As for Toronto & Hamilton, I just dont see Roustan going anywhere and unless someone else VERY VERY REAL comes to the fore & tout sweet, not happening at all. Im speculating wildly here, but seems to me that once Bell & Rogers part company, we'll then see a fracturing off, part of the settlement being one of them (probably Bell) going in with partners to build a new facility, acquire a franchise, be it Hamilton or somewhere in suburban GTA. But eventually, and not far off, convinced there will be 3 teams in Southern Ontario.