Heeeeere comes expansion! - Part II

[canuckster19]

If the NHL decides to go North of 32 teams, I think they're going to have to seriously consider shortening the schedule and adding more teams to the playoffs.

Click to read more...

 

[varano]

You don’t hit those guys Ontario, HOU, QC, SEA, LV, PORT because “homer, strikeout/HR, double, walk, walk†= 1 or 2 runs; and “walk, walk, double, homer, strikeout/HR" = 4 or 5 runs. (And yes, I realize I'm counting six markets as five players).

What? Why Houston? The Stars are already second banana behind the Cowboys and an NHL team in Houston would surely lag behind the texans and astros.

If the NHL decides to go North of 32 teams, I think they're going to have to seriously consider shortening the schedule and adding more teams to the playoffs.

Not to mention the serious talent dilution at drafts.

 

[King_Stannis]

What? Why Houston? The Stars are already second banana behind the Cowboys and an NHL team in Houston would surely lag behind the texans and astros.

...and Rockets.

 

[ponder719]

What? Why Houston? The Stars are already second banana behind the Cowboys and an NHL team in Houston would surely lag behind the texans and astros.

1 New York 19,069,796
2 Los Angeles 12,828,837
3 Chicago 9,461,105
4 Dallas-Fort Worth 6,426,214
5 Philadelphia 5,965,343
6 Houston 5,920,416
7 Toronto 5,583,064[1]
8 Washington 5,582,170
9 Miami 5,564,635
10 Atlanta 5,268,860

That's why. It's the only top-10 population center in the US and Canada that has never had an NHL team, and if they get even a meager 5% of all Houstonians interested in hockey, that's 296,000 people, more people than live in Saskatoon. Houston is Gary's great white whale, because putting a team there puts live hockey within reach of more people than putting a team anywhere else that doesn't have one.

 

[sandysan]

1 New York 19,069,796
2 Los Angeles 12,828,837
3 Chicago 9,461,105
4 Dallas-Fort Worth 6,426,214
5 Philadelphia 5,965,343
6 Houston 5,920,416
7 Toronto 5,583,064[1]
8 Washington 5,582,170
9 Miami 5,564,635
10 Atlanta 5,268,860

That's why. It's the only top-10 population center in the US and Canada that has never had an NHL team, and if they get even a meager 5% of all Houstonians interested in hockey, that's 296,000 people, more people than live in Saskatoon. Houston is Gary's great white whale, because putting a team there puts live hockey within reach of more people than putting a team anywhere else that doesn't have one.

If population is the sole metric, where is Mexico city?

And the nhl no longer has #10 on the list and their response was " meh"

The notion that throwing a sheet into high population density will draw fans in by osmosis had zero support.

 

[knorthern knight]

If the NHL decides to go North of 32 teams, I think they're going to have to seriously consider shortening the schedule and adding more teams to the playoffs.

Going up to 42 teams would be ideal...

• Each team would play home-and-home versus the other 41 teams = 82 games
• Conference/Division alignment problems go "poof", because it's all one big league with no conferences/divisions
• Top 24 teams get into playoffs
• Top 8 teams are seeds with a bye past the preliminary round
• The 16 teams in positions 9-to-24 play in a preliminary round
• The 8 survivors of the preliminary round join the 8 top seeds, for 16 teams in the playoff hunt

 

[Melrose Munch]

Then no one WILL ever build that arena and NHL might as well tell the seattle market to get lost.

Why does Seattle get to make special demands no other market does though? See, this is why I blame Hansen.

Going up to 42 teams would be ideal...

• Each team would play home-and-home versus the other 41 teams = 82 games
• Conference/Division alignment problems go "poof", because it's all one big league with no conferences/divisions
• Top 24 teams get into playoffs
• Top 8 teams are seeds with a bye past the preliminary round
• The 16 teams in positions 9-to-24 play in a preliminary round
• The 8 survivors of the preliminary round join the 8 top seeds, for 16 teams in the playoff hunt

84 games and bigger nets. But I think 36 is enough.

 

[CrypTic]

I have no quarrel with you. I do however have problems with people who say that some mysterious nba like tv deal is going to shore up these non traditional markets when there is no evidence of this ( I've heard this goal for decades) and these teams RARELY get on national tv.

So the plan is, new markets, font put them on TV and the obvious result is a bigger contract.

You will hear people.mention footprint, presence, exposure. All nice ideas, none pay the bills. It's the same fallacy when people use % sellouts as opposed to revenues. Players are paid in cash, expenses are in cash. To chase these other notions that DON'T bring cash ( or are an investment to bring in MORE cash at a later date) are the signs of a failed business.

I have always assumed that WRT the broadcast deals the new markets are valued for their eyeballs (who will watch televised games) much more than for the product (i.e., how often will the team's games be broadcast). As long as the new markets increase viewership (and thus ad $$$) for the broadcasters, I would guess that being able to have the new teams play during existing broadcast times (e.g., Wednesday Night Rivalry on NBC) would be relatively unimportant. If the broadcasters can add new games (e.g., games mostly among teams playing during Pacific Time), that would also be desirable.

 

[Melrose Munch]

likely local broadcast viewers
Quebec: 500,000
Seattle: 400,000
Hamilton: 1,000,000

likely total broadcast viewers:
Quebec: 2,000,000
Seattle: 800,000
Hamilton: 3,000,000

Of course Im pulling #s out of my butt, but I fail to see how a Seattle team would deliver that many viewers.

as far as gate goes, well, that's obvious ...

Fair enough, I was just trying to law out the importance of getting into the PNW.

 

[LeafShark]

To me it seems like the fact of the matter is that outside of GTA/TO there are no places to put teams that will wind up in the top half of the league in HRR for at least 20-30 years. That means that most expansions are candidates for RS, and while that may not seem like an awesome plan to many fans, it's what RS is there for.

15-25 in HRR is the sweet spot, and I think most every serious expansion candidate can fit that bill.

Expected franchise value rank of possible expansion teams would look something like this. All else being equal (it isn't) relocation preference should follow this. Seattle over the long run is worth much more than any other possible franchise with the exception of Hamilton/Toronto2 and maybe Houston. Anything below these top three just scrapes by for profitability and franchise value.

Hamilton/Toronto2
Seattle
Houston* not in current round
Quebec City
Las Vegas
------------ profitability cut off
Portland
Atlanta *not in current round
Hartford *not in current round yet
Austin *not in current round
Milwaukee
Kansas City
City of Phoenix with new arena ???
----------- losses too big to ignore
Indianapolis *not in current round
Omaha/Tulsa *not in current round

 

[BattleBorn]

Expected franchise value rank of possible expansion teams would look something like this. All else being equal (it isn't) relocation preference should follow this. Seattle over the long run is worth much more than any other possible franchise with the exception of Hamilton/Toronto2 and maybe Houston. Anything below these top three just scrapes by for profitability and franchise value.

Hamilton/Toronto2
Seattle
Houston* not in current round
Quebec City
Las Vegas
------------ profitability cut off
Portland
Atlanta *not in current round
Hartford *not in current round yet
Austin *not in current round
Milwaukee
Kansas City
City of Phoenix with new arena ???
----------- losses too big to ignore
Indianapolis *not in current round
Omaha/Tulsa *not in current round

Probably accurate. I'm a little nervous about our lack of a regional sports network here in Las Vegas, but actually having a team may cure that problem and provide that as a source of revenue. If Vegas can maintain the price point at which the initial round of season tickets will demand, I think we can scratch it out profitably. Especially with a favorable arena lease deal, which I expect will come to pass.

As it stands now, Vegas prices are pegged to league average and will be the most expensive in the Southwest US. If that continues and potentially grows, I think there's a great shot out here in the valley. The lack of professional sports competition for dollars can likely support that type of pricing scheme.

 

[sandysan]

I have always assumed that WRT the broadcast deals the new markets are valued for their eyeballs (who will watch televised games) much more than for the product (i.e., how often will the team's games be broadcast). As long as the new markets increase viewership (and thus ad $$$) for the broadcasters, I would guess that being able to have the new teams play during existing broadcast times (e.g., Wednesday Night Rivalry on NBC) would be relatively unimportant. If the broadcasters can add new games (e.g., games mostly among teams playing during Pacific Time), that would also be desirable.

You think that fans of new teams are going to flock to watch third party games 2-3 hours earlier?

If nbcsn goes to double headers every night, that would be great but I'm not sure it's feasible.

And although the nhl wants to " grow the game" nbc wants to sell adds, which means a steady diet of hawks and pens games and teams that NEED exposure bring relegated to the fringes.

 

[wellsZe]

Probably accurate. I'm a little nervous about our lack of a regional sports network here in Las Vegas, but actually having a team may cure that problem and provide that as a source of revenue. If Vegas can maintain the price point at which the initial round of season tickets will demand, I think we can scratch it out profitably. Especially with a favorable arena lease deal, which I expect will come to pass.

As it stands now, Vegas prices are pegged to league average and will be the most expensive in the Southwest US. If that continues and potentially grows, I think there's a great shot out here in the valley. The lack of professional sports competition for dollars can likely support that type of pricing scheme.

Vegas doesn't have a RSN?
I'm down for the Vegas experiment, but in terms of relocation - Hartford has a potential 5 RSN's that could bid for the local TV contract.
CSNE, NESN+, SNY, YES , MSG
in that order. Maybe (FOX Atlantic?)

Plus, you got think ESPN will get back in the mix for the TV contract if Hartford is back. ESPN HQ is what? 20 minutes away?

Little OT: announced today, our future owners of NASL Hartford City FC soccer club (2017) will be playing 12 indoor games at the XL this winter. I'm not sure if it's an indoor league or... teaser games to NASL? So, is that a NO for HFD, or just more revenue streams (non hockey events). XL is managed by global.

 

[BattleBorn]

Vegas doesn't have a RSN?
I'm down for the Vegas experiment, but in terms of relocation - Hartford has a potential 5 RSN's that could bid for the local TV contract.
CSNE, NESN+, SNY, YES , MSG
in that order.

We're in the market for many, you can get a few on a basic tier. Unfortunately, the ones we get all have hockey teams associated with them and likely aren't in the market for Vegas games unless Fox Sports Utah (I think it's Fox Sports up there) are interested in adding Vegas to their inventory. If they are, they're developing a competitor for time with Utah's only pro sport team in the Jazz and would probably be up for a name change. Fox Sports Intermountain West or something gangly like that.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

You didnt answer the 2nd question. Why did they not follow the rest of the western teams to the new AHL pacific division where they play LESS games?

simple answer, wellsZe, Arizona and Colorado do not own their franchise affiliates, much like the RANGERS, through MSG own the Wolf*Pack, BESIDES that, I'd suspect XL itself would be deemed 'obsolete', MUCH as Talking Stick may be heading down that same road, add to that, the ARI PDC w/ SPR is a series of 1 yr contracts, and it may be once the legalities surrounding ARI subside, that SPR might be heading to NHL-Owned route.

 

[wellsZe]

simple answer, wellsZe, Arizona and Colorado do not own their franchise affiliates, much like the RANGERS, through MSG own the Wolf*Pack, BESIDES that, I'd suspect XL itself would be deemed 'obsolete', MUCH as Talking Stick may be heading down that same road, add to that, the ARI PDC w/ SPR is a series of 1 yr contracts, and it may be once the legalities surrounding ARI subside, that SPR might be heading to NHL-Owned route.

Hey LA, someone already answered the question.

 

[NHL Hartford]

Hamilton, Winnipeg, Vegas, and Quebec seem to have done it.

Hartford is on the verge as well.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Hartford fans:

unless the state of Connecticut goes the route of TNSE and Quebecor, you won't have pro hockey at the top level. IF you had given that same deal that Karmanos, etc. had pleaded for then YOU would still have the NHL.

NASL Options do not count unless Hartford acquires the Revolution WHICH, BTW, have an existing contract on CSNE.

 

[WeTheNords]

Hartford is on the verge as well.

Sure would be nice to see Hartford in the NHL with Quebec City for old time sake. Adams Division for the win!!

 

[wellsZe]

Hartford fans:

unless the state of Connecticut goes the route of TNSE and Quebecor, you won't have pro hockey at the top level. IF you had given that same deal that Karmanos, etc. had pleaded for then YOU would still have the NHL.

NASL Options do not count unless Hartford acquires the Revolution WHICH, BTW, have an existing contract on CSNE.

I'm not getting into soccer here. NASL is d2, mls is d1. Two different leagues. HFD acquiring revs? What? NASL is on espn3.

Relocation b4 expansion.
QC, SEA, LV mentioned by bettman today.

QC in 95, 2015 - ARI - HFD/POR
PEG in 96. 2016 - FLA - HFD/loser in bid
HFD in 97 2017- CAR - HFD/loser in bid
What then 4 expansions? 2018 ?
Deja vu, NHL?

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

I'm not getting into soccer here. NASL is d2, mls is d1. Two different leagues. HFD acquiring revs? What? NASL is on espn3.

Relocation b4 expansion.
QC, SEA, LV mentioned by bettman today.

QC in 95, 2015 - ARI - HFD/POR
PEG in 96. 2016 - FLA - HFD/loser in bid
HFD in 97 2017- CAR - HFD/loser in bid
What then 4 expansions? 2018 ?
Deja vu, NHL?

and what has been the prevailing opinion is that QC IS MILES ahead of HFD, just as TNSE was arena-wise, nothing has changed politically in Connecticut SINCE 1997 and you haven't changed anyone's mind to the contrary even if U-Conn becomes more and more involved in Hartford's arena, whether it be dates by multiple sports

the prevailing opinion also is that the NHL will balance the imbalanced Western conference (LV/SEA) with QC as a plan B for an existing EC Franchise issue.

XL is obsolete, has been and probably was deemed as such by Karmanos.

 

[Icedog2735]

I'm not getting into soccer here. NASL is d2, mls is d1. Two different leagues. HFD acquiring revs? What? NASL is on espn3.

Relocation b4 expansion.
QC, SEA, LV mentioned by bettman today.

QC in 95, 2015 - ARI - HFD/POR
PEG in 96. 2016 - FLA - HFD/loser in bid
HFD in 97 2017- CAR - HFD/loser in bid
What then 4 expansions? 2018 ?
Deja vu, NHL?

Let me ask, on August 10 when the expansion deadline is closed, do you think we see Hartford's name on the interested list, or is it relocation or nothing? (Not interested in IF they would be the league's choice for expansion, just want to know if you think they'd throw their hat into the ring)

 

[Fugu]

Carry on.

Part I:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1915229

 

[MarkGio]

Can anyone provide a list of cities with an arena and owner lined up? A list of cities working on an arena? Cities that are interested but don't have a capable facility and arena?

 

[requiredusername]

I'm kinda gland the sonics were relocated. One thing that move did it forced the issue on the arena problem and folks finally accepted that Key arena will never work anymore as a long term arena.

my belief is we may not be getting a new arena if the NBA team had the team stayed under local ownership.

It is sad to see Schultz get vilified because he is a great businessman and has a certain unique value set that bleeds through Starbucks.

The issues were never his fault.

Key Arena was hurt because the next generation of sports stadiums went into effect right after the final upgrade.

He needed a new arena, the Mariners and Seahawks got their arenas, and he got none.

The fact that Key Arena is still an issue tells you everything you need to know about where the city and state stand today. The mayor makes press trips to NYC every year to meet with Silver and Stern and it is the same answer, do you have a replacement for Key Arena. No. Thank you for your time.