Speculation: Head Coach Hunt 2021

[WrinkledPossum]

1. 2001 Hartley *40s*
2. 2002 Bowman
3. 2003 Burns
4. 2004 Tortorella *40s*
5. 2005 CANCELLED
6. 2006 Laviolette *40s*
7. 2007 Carlyle
8. 2008 Babcock *40s*
9. 2009 Bylsma *40s*
10. 2010 Quenneville
11. 2011 Julien
12. 2012 Sutter
13. 2013 Quenneville
14. 2014 Sutter
15. 2015 Quenneville
16. 2016 Sullivan *40s*
17. 2017 Sullivan *40s*
18. 2018 Trotz
19. 2019 Berube
20. 2020 Cooper
For those 20 years, the count is SEVEN guys in their 40s and TWELVE guys not in their 40s and ONE cancelled season.

If you go under 55 and under I think it would really skew to younger is better. Berube and Cooper were both 53 when they won. Quenneville was 52 when he won his 1st.

Sutter also first made the finals in 04 at 46.

Based on this I bet if someone did a a more proper study the prime age for a coach would be late 40s/early 50s.

 

[Jamieh]

Man was I off base or what. I thought most were in their 50s.

I literally went looking for 1 or 2, I was surprised

 

[rt]

If you go under 55 and under I think it would really skew to younger is better. Berube and Cooper were both 53 when they won. Quenneville was 52 when he won his 1st.

Sutter also first made the finals in 04 at 46.

Based on this I bet if someone did a a more proper study the prime age for a coach would be late 40s/early 50s.

I bet you're right. Which begs the question; how close are the Coyotes? If the ideal championship coach is 48-52 years old and the Coyotes are 4 years away, then isn't a 44-48 year old coach a great choice to hire at this point in time?

 

[RABBIT]

31 thoughts blog has Todd Nelson as another name.

 

[rt]

31 thoughts blog has Todd Nelson as another name.

I like him a lot. I’d be happy if we hired him. Having said that, BA’s first word when describing the new coach was “young”. At 51, Nelson isn’t old by any standard. But he’s not exactly young by most standards, either.

I have zero problems with his age - haha. But then again, I wouldn’t start my description of my ideal coach with the word “young”

I think we should have hired Nelson four years ago instead Tocchet. That’s for sure.

 

[Mosby]

Current NHL coaches by age

36: 1
40: 1
43: 1
46: 1
47: 1
48: 1
49: 1
50: 3
52: 1
53: 4
54: 3
55: 2
56: 2
58: 1
59: 2
61: 1
62: 2
66: 1

NHL coaches 40 and younger: 2
NHL coaches 45 and younger: 3
NHL coaches 49 and younger: 7

Average age: 53
Median age: 53

Average age excluding youngest and oldest: 53
Median age excluding youngest and oldest: 53

So the 40's crowd is definitely the minority but it's not like they are few and far between either.

 

[Mosby]

I am also a little surprised that Rick Tocchet (57) would be considered the 8th oldest coach in the NHL. Wow.

 

[SR]

This thread sucks.

 

[rt]

This thread sucks.

This is because you were hoping for Gallant, Torts, BB, or Claude Julien? Orrr...?

 

[XX]

This is because you were hoping for Gallant, Torts, BB, or Claude Julien? Orrr...?

Because you guys are arguing about how many wrinkles a guy has instead of coaching ability or fit

 

[rt]

What if BA goes very young?

Like Jay Leach, young? He's 41 years old. He was a Coyotes draft pick (5th round in 1998) and did four years as a hard-nosed, stay-at-home D for Providence College. He later played pro in the ECHL (including a stop with the Trenton Titans - formerly coached by BA) and the AHL (including a stint with the Providence Bruins - formerly coached by BA), and various cups of coffee with several NHL teams. He's been an assistant coach in the DEL, as well as with the Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins (and a stint as interim HC) but more recently has been the head coach of the Providence Bruins for the last four season (playoff caliber all four years with P% of .625, .572, .661 and .680).

Spencer Carbery probably doesn't have near enough experience, either. He's only 39. Had a long NCAA playing career, prior to being an ECHL enforcer for like eight years. Was an ECHL head coach for five years and made the playoffs every time, including a finals appearance. Has had a fantastic start to his AHL head coaching career with three playoff pace seasons with the Hershey Bears (.618, .653, and .742). (of note that he broke into the AHL as an assistant under Jay Leach for Providence).

I doubt he'd go so young as Ryan Warsofsky but who knows? Youngest head coach in the AHL in the last 20 years. Just coached the Chicago Wolves to a first place finish. Had a bunch of ECHL success prior to that. Is only 34 years old.

Those are just a few names of the really early, very young, quite bright up-and-comers. Just in case he wants to go crazy young and pull up from very deep in that coaching well.

 

[rt]

Because you guys are arguing about how many wrinkles a guy has instead of coaching ability or fit

That was really all just a response to a very typical Jake post. I think most of us want the top candidates out there but BA made it pretty clear we're going young. So of the available coaches in their 40s, we're just talking names. Nobody is really advocating that youth is a strength or that being older is bad. I think it would be misguided not to accept how BA set expectations though.

 

[XX]

Young is a byword for cheap. If Julien or Gallant offered to take the job tomorrow for $2m a year, they'd be the guy.

 

[rt]

Young is a byword for cheap. If Julien or Gallant offered to take the job tomorrow for $2m a year, they'd be the guy.

Maybe. He's not going to say he wants to go young and then higher a very cheap 56 year old. When he says young, he means young. Cheap is part of that equation. So while it makes sense to cross the expensive guys off the list (no surprise) it probably makes sense to cross the older guys off too (a bit more surprising). The only point of all of this discussion is to speculate on the types of names we might see interviewed. I don't have anywhere near the insight to know which are the good ones. I'm just trying to predict which names will make up the option-set.

Nate Leaman
Mike Van Ryn
Rocky Thompson
Brad Larsen
Kris Knoblauch
Andre Tourigny
Jay Leach
Spencer Carbery

 

[Mosby]

Thompson or Leaman if I had to guess. Hopefully not whomever puts together the best PowerPoint.

 

[rt]

Thompson or Leaman if I had to guess. Hopefully not whomever puts together the best PowerPoint.

I mean, at least come up with a 92 page report, right?

 

[XX]

I see Leaman getting a very serious and thorough interview but I don't see him beating out Thompson. The latter is simply too well rounded and an equal riser.

MVR being cool on the position is fairly interesting.

 

[rt]

I see Leaman getting a very serious and thorough interview but I don't see him beating out Thompson. The latter is simply too well rounded and an equal riser.

MVR being cool on the position is fairly interesting.

When I listened to the 31T pod, it had a different sound on the MVR thing. It was more like “I haven’t heard he’s interested” rather than “I’ve hear he’s not”. What he said was something like “I don’t know if he’s even interested in that or not”. But I think meant “I don’t even know if he’s interested that or not”. I think he just kinda mispoke on his word order. But the tone an emphasis made it sound more causal than it looked on the blog.

Rocky Thompson is my favorite of these eight:

Nate Leaman
Mike Van Ryn
Rocky Thompson
Brad Larsen
Kris Knoblauch
Andre Tourigny
Jay Leach
Spencer Carbery

I guess my “rankings” are like:

1. Thompson

2/3. MVR/Knoblauch

4/5/6/7. Leaman/Tourigny/Leach/Carbery

8. Larsen

 

[cobra427]

This is because you were hoping for Gallant, Torts, BB, or Claude Julien? Orrr...?

Any of the above cost too much $$$$$$$

 

[MIGs Dog]

Good you looked it up. 35% chance of winning with a 40s coach and 60% chance winning with an older coach. Better than I thought. Still not good.

Perhaps this is a case where correlation is meaningless.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Any of the above cost too much $$$$$$$

I don't understand why an organization would spend $7 mil a yr on a small winger with more promise than performance, yet wants to go cheap on a HC.

If we assume a good HC is worth 15 more pts per season, that's enough to make the playoffs much more consistently, which means more revenue for the organization.

 

[Jakey53]

Current NHL coaches by age

36: 1
40: 1
43: 1
46: 1
47: 1
48: 1
49: 1
50: 3
52: 1
53: 4
54: 3
55: 2
56: 2
58: 1
59: 2
61: 1
62: 2
66: 1

NHL coaches 40 and younger: 2
NHL coaches 45 and younger: 3
NHL coaches 49 and younger: 7

Average age: 53
Median age: 53

Average age excluding youngest and oldest: 53
Median age excluding youngest and oldest: 53

So the 40's crowd is definitely the minority but it's not like they are few and far between either.[/QUOT

 

[Jakey53]

I am also a little surprised that Rick Tocchet (57) would be considered the 8th oldest coach in the NHL. Wow.

Eighth oldest with the worst record? RT may be first in something.

 

[rt]

Pascal Vincent is another guy to consider. He’s 49. He was a head coach and GM in the QMJHL for 12 years and made the playoffs every single year. Won coach of the year and won gm of the year separately. Then he was an NHL assistant coach in Winnipeg for five years before taking the head coaching job foe the Manitoba Moose where he’s been for five years. That’s just a shit-ton of experience for a 49 year old. LOL.

 

[Jakey53]

Any of the above cost too much $$$$$$$

Success = $$$$.