Have we gotten better or worse?

[Jesus Take the Wheel]

Losing one of our top scorers and a good pker = improvement?

JJ is also a good pker, and the points of Strome + JJ should be slightly less or equal to that of Pou and ebs

 

[Weitz]

I don't buy into the idea that internal progression can be counted on as "better". I think on paper the team isn't better, and the division might be tougher (AZ and CAL, buy add Vegas in there on the other side). Sekera injury will hurt a ton.

I see us dropping some due to the Sekera injury and possible other injuries that can occur that we didn't really have last year.

 

[Aerchon]

I don't buy into the idea that internal progression can be counted on as "better". I think on paper the team isn't better, and the division might be tougher (AZ and CAL, buy add Vegas in there on the other side). Sekera injury will hurt a ton.

I see us dropping some due to the Sekera injury and possible other injuries that can occur that we didn't really have last year.

I think at some point, especially in the cap world, you have to rely on internal progression. And I don't mean like the Oilers did with half their roster for the last 10 years.

Most of the young guys we have are not 18 year old rookies without professional development.

McDavid, Leon, Kassian, Kharia, Nuge, Slepy, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, and LB all have professional seasons under their belt and are in the sweat spots of improving over declining.

We have one guy over age 32 and that's Jokinen. Very few players that should be technically declining. Only 2 rookies from last year and both are older to start with.

Losing Sekera hurts but we do have the depth to deal with it. Keep the pain minor.

Calgary and Arizona are only marginally better than they were and both clearly still worse than the Oilers on paper.

Don't get me wrong, lots could go sideways or worse but on paper these are smart gambles that don't rely on everything having to go perfect.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't buy into the idea that internal progression can be counted on as "better". I think on paper the team isn't better, and the division might be tougher (AZ and CAL, buy add Vegas in there on the other side). Sekera injury will hurt a ton.

I see us dropping some due to the Sekera injury and possible other injuries that can occur that we didn't really have last year.

Every team relies on internal progression. Really guys, how many teams have added major pieces this summer without losing any players? *crickets*

There's an insane standard on this board for whatever reason that every summer must bring shiny new toys all the time, part of it likely stems from the gong show Oilers rebuild where we had a new top 10 pick every summer to fawn over and plenty of cap room (because the team was crap) to overspend on some UFA signing that would almost always blow up in our face.

We're not used to having a good team so we don't understand concepts like internal progression, but every good team does it.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Every team relies on internal progression. Really guys, how many teams have added major pieces this summer without losing any players? *crickets*

There's an insane standard on this board for whatever reason that every summer must bring shiny new toys all the time, part of it likely stems from the gong show Oilers rebuild where we had a new top 10 pick every summer to fawn over and plenty of cap room (because the team was crap) to overspend on some UFA signing that would almost always blow up in our face.

We're not used to having a good team so we don't understand concepts like internal progression, but every good team does it.

Pit replaces key players all the time

 

[SK13]

Pit replaces key players all the time

Eh...

They've accumulated players, really. There were the lean years where they pushed out guys like Neal and Staal to fit under the cap, but only when they got enough cap flexibility to upgrade instead of replacing key losses did they start competing for the Cup again.

 

[McShogun99]

Mcdavid's point increase next season will more than make up the difference between Eberle and Strome.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Mcdavid's point increase next season will more than make up the difference between Eberle and Strome.

LOl. What? McD ain't getting 130 points

 

[McTrashBoat]

LOl. What? McD ain't getting 130 points

Eberle wasn't gonna hit 70

 

[shoop]

LOl. What? McD ain't getting 130 points

Eberle had 21 more points than Strome last season ... so to replace the drop in production McDavid has to score 30 more points? That's some funky math.

 

[bobbythebrain]

I'm lost. Are people saying McD hits 120 points?

 

[shoop]

I'm lost. Are people saying McD hits 120 points?

Will your next post drop it to 110 points as a projection for McDavid next season you are questioning? Cuz your one before this said 130.

 

[TheRebuild]

Will your next post drop it to 110 points as a projection for McDavid next season you are questioning? Cuz your one before this said 130.

If McDavid doesn't hit at least 110 next season, I will be disappointed and want to trade him before his albatross contract kicks in

 

[Mr Positive]

I wouldn't sweat losing Eberle that much. The main reason we would want to keep him for this upcoming season is that he was 'due' to have a better season, which could have happened, but maybe not. He was slumping really badly this season, and even worse in the playoffs. He had some points in the season, but that was with 2nd line minutes with PP time, and even a fair chunk of time with McDavid. Just about anyone else we could put in Eberle's role would match his production.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Will your next post drop it to 110 points as a projection for McDavid next season you are questioning? Cuz your one before this said 130.

Ebs got 51 points. Strome got 30.

So is McD gonna be a 120 point player? I was making a point. Sorry if I missed it by ten, but the point still stands

I love the laugh emoji tho. You are calling McD a 100+ point player again in an injury free year where our division got tighter?

Ya, you got me

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

Without Sekera, we are a worse team (taking into account all of the possible regressions). Once he's back, we will be about the same as last year (which is great).

 

[Mr Positive]

Without Sekera, we are a worse team (taking into account all of the possible regressions). Once he's back, we will be about the same as last year (which is great).

it's likely that when Sekera returns, he would be truly 100% for a period after that. It looks like Chiarelli is counting on Benning or Nurse taking a step forward and be a poor-man's Sekera on that 2nd pairing with Russell.

 

[shoop]

Ebs got 51 points. Strome got 30.

So is McD gonna be a 120 point player? I was making a point. Sorry if I missed it by ten, but the point still stands

I love the laugh emoji tho. You are calling McD a 100+ point player again in an injury free year where our division got tighter?

Ya, you got me

Yes. McDavid will be a 100+ point player again with an injury free season. As long as it's injury free I'd say he's more likely to score 120+ than 90 or less.

Not sure if I agree with the division getting tighter. Flames are the only team that is unquestionably better. The Kings might be better, but that's really just a maybe. I think the Sharks and Ducks take a step back, but maybe just a little step. Vancouver will definitely be worse. Arizona will probably be worse. Knights will get more points than last season, but won't be very good.

 

[Bangers]

Overall, I'd say the team looks worse on paper, but will be better on the ice (barring major injuries - knocks on wood).

McDavid - should improve. If he develops a better shot, the rest of the league is in trouble.

Drai - I see him falling a bit, especially if his contract doesn't get signed until training camp. He'll likely be called on to produce more on his own, expectations will be higher, and his shot % was pretty high. That being said, I can see him getting a bit better at being a 2-way C.

Maroon - probably the same (if he stays on McDavid's wing). He'll be out for a new contract, so he could end up with career high totals this season.

Lucic - probably the same. He'll have had a year to fit in, but I see the same level of play from him; he'll conserve most of his energy for later in the season, when the games matter more.

RNH - sadly, he'll be the same. IMO, he is what he is at this point, which is sad when you consider how good he looked 3 seasons ago.

Puljujarvi - will either improve considerably, or will be in the AHL. This year, he'll have the benefit of a year to assimilate to the language, culture, ice surface, etc., and he'll have the benefit of not coming off a major injury.

Jokinen >>> Pouliot. Plus, he can take draws for our Cs, who are pretty weak at them.

Strome - IMO, he'll provide more than Eberle did last season. While I think Eberle is a much better player, he produced absolutely nothing offensively last season, and even though his 2-way game improved, he's wasn't exactly Tikkanen in his prime. Strome will probably not produce a lot at ES, but I can see him taking Letestu's spot on the PP and putting up a lot of points there.

Kassian - same level of play, but hopefully he'll have a bit more luck with the goals.

Letestu - point royals will likely fall off a bit (due to Strome taking his spot on the PP), but I can see him being more effective with more limited minutes.

Caggiula - will be better. I don't see much of a sophomore slump for him, as he's already had a few years of college development and he's now had an entire season to get used to the NHL grind.

Slepy/Khaira/et al should be better due to another year of seasoning.

Klefbom - Larsson will be better. As good as Klefbom became later in the season, he was madly inconsistent for the first 2/3rds of the season; now that he'll have had another season of improvement (and time to work with Larsson), I could see these two being very, very good.

Sekera injury hurts.

Russell should be about the same level of play.

Nurse and Benning should improve, but IMO, Benning is the Oiler most likely to fail to meet expectations. Young D-'men are unpredictable, especially when given extra responsibility (due to Sekera's injury).

Gryba's game will likely fall off a bit, and I know very little about the new French D-man.

Talbot won't be as good. That's not a knock on him, but he was fantastic last year; replicating that would be a massive challenge. On the plus side, Brossoit can't be any worse than Gus was as a backup.

 

[McGoMcD]

If you don't count on the the young players getting better we are probably about the same. There are a lot of Eberle fans that just don't realise he sucked last year, he really just sucked. Strome isn't quite as good, but JJ is better than Pouliot, so it is pretty even. But that is again saying the young players don't get better. McD will take another step forward, so will Drai, Nurse, Klef ect.

 

[McGoMcD]

Overall, I'd say the team looks worse on paper, but will be better on the ice (barring major injuries - knocks on wood).

McDavid - should improve. If he develops a better shot, the rest of the league is in trouble.

Drai - I see him falling a bit, especially if his contract doesn't get signed until training camp. He'll likely be called on to produce more on his own, expectations will be higher, and his shot % was pretty high. That being said, I can see him getting a bit better at being a 2-way C.

Maroon - probably the same (if he stays on McDavid's wing). He'll be out for a new contract, so he could end up with career high totals this season.

Lucic - probably the same. He'll have had a year to fit in, but I see the same level of play from him; he'll conserve most of his energy for later in the season, when the games matter more.

RNH - sadly, he'll be the same. IMO, he is what he is at this point, which is sad when you consider how good he looked 3 seasons ago.

Puljujarvi - will either improve considerably, or will be in the AHL. This year, he'll have the benefit of a year to assimilate to the language, culture, ice surface, etc., and he'll have the benefit of not coming off a major injury.

Jokinen >>> Pouliot. Plus, he can take draws for our Cs, who are pretty weak at them.

Strome - IMO, he'll provide more than Eberle did last season. While I think Eberle is a much better player, he produced absolutely nothing offensively last season, and even though his 2-way game improved, he's wasn't exactly Tikkanen in his prime. Strome will probably not produce a lot at ES, but I can see him taking Letestu's spot on the PP and putting up a lot of points there.

Kassian - same level of play, but hopefully he'll have a bit more luck with the goals.

Letestu - point royals will likely fall off a bit (due to Strome taking his spot on the PP), but I can see him being more effective with more limited minutes.

Caggiula - will be better. I don't see much of a sophomore slump for him, as he's already had a few years of college development and he's now had an entire season to get used to the NHL grind.

Slepy/Khaira/et al should be better due to another year of seasoning.

Klefbom - Larsson will be better. As good as Klefbom became later in the season, he was madly inconsistent for the first 2/3rds of the season; now that he'll have had another season of improvement (and time to work with Larsson), I could see these two being very, very good.

Sekera injury hurts.

Russell should be about the same level of play.

Nurse and Benning should improve, but IMO, Benning is the Oiler most likely to fail to meet expectations. Young D-'men are unpredictable, especially when given extra responsibility (due to Sekera's injury).

Gryba's game will likely fall off a bit, and I know very little about the new French D-man.

Talbot won't be as good. That's not a knock on him, but he was fantastic last year; replicating that would be a massive challenge. On the plus side, Brossoit can't be any worse than Gus was as a backup.

I agree with the rest of your assessment but why would Drai fall a little? Guy was a beast in the playoffs, I have him pegged for a bigger point improvement than McD.

 

[Bangers]

I agree with the rest of your assessment but why would Drai fall a little? Guy was a beast in the playoffs, I have him pegged for a bigger point improvement than McD.

To me, the biggest variable is when he gets signed. If he gets signed a few weeks into camp, he's playing catch up for a few weeks, and while I'm not sure if it's always the case in hockey, I remember reading an article on how athletes that don't go through a whole training camp are more likely to get injured.

Also, as I stated, his shot % was 16.9%, which may be hard to repeat, and if he doesn't spend time on McDavid's line, he likely won't get as many points.

 

[McDraekke]

I agree with the rest of your assessment but why would Drai fall a little? Guy was a beast in the playoffs, I have him pegged for a bigger point improvement than McD.

No. The real reason that Drai will falter is that we will likely be leaning on him to centre his own line at some point, and his offensive stats are much lower without McDavid than with him. You can't count the playoffs as an indicator for regular season improvements.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I think we're considerably better. I think some people are underestimating what Jokinen will bring to the table. He's a Swiss Army knife at forward, only one season removed from putting up 60 points, and still the greatest value he brings is a mentoring influence on Puljujarvi. People are also overstating the loss of Eberle. No one can deny the guy can create offence, but his half assed effort in the defensive zone creates a lot for the other team. How many times did we see him bail on a tough board battle that may have got the puck out? Or put it in neutral on the back check? Strome likely won't put up 50 points, but he'll play more engaged.

I think our forward group is the best in the league (assuming continued development for a few), especially if we have Drai center his own line. I'd personally roll with this:

Maroon-McD-Drake
Looch-Drai-Strome
Jokinen-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Slepy-TheTestTube-Kass

That 4th line could be the best in the league. Same could be said for that 3rd line if Pulju does what I think he's capable of.

The only question this team has is can we survive the Sekera injury and is our back up goaltending good enough to give Talbot more rest this year? Even if both answers are no, I think the improvement/progression at forward is enough that we're at least as good as last year.

 

[dustrock]

RW is a moving target but if Puljujarvi is ready, overall the forward corps might be the strongest we've had in 20 years.

The Sekera injury was a huge blow and I think we'll see the impact in the first 20 games. The Oilers will have to hold on and not get too far behind until Sekera comes back.

I still am not a huge Russell fan and not sure if Nurse and Benning are ready to move up the lineup. I'm much less confident in the D overall. Guess Klef-Lars better get used to playing 28 minutes per night lol.