Have we gotten better or worse?

[bone]

Really what has changed. Eberle and Pouliot out, Strome and Jokinen in. If we only consider last year's production (considering we are saying better or worse), I find it hard to think we're significantly worse, but there is potential that we're better there.

Defense is an obvious concern as we're down Sekera, but he will return.

Looking at the returning players. We still have quite a few players that haven't peaked yet, so there is a higher ceiling still for them that may or may not happen. Also, we don't have many old players (30+) that we'd expect a major drop off from other than Letestu, so I think there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about next year.

 

[Jejune]

One thing I think we can't count on for next year is Draisaitl. He'll be coming off a big contract signing which may be delayed into training camp, never a good start for a year. And I think his shooting percentage was pretty high last year, which could be due to come down. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in the 65 point range next year. But I also think Nuge will be above 50 points which should help.

 

[Spawn]

I think its important to shine alight on who had career years last season.

Can we expect a repeat performance to match their career best seasons from players like Talbot....Klefbom...Maroon...Draisaitl and Letestu?

Can players like Slepyshev, Caggiula, Benning and Nurse continue to develop in a positive direction?

The defence is worse than last season (for sure for the first 2 months of the season until Sekera gets back...maybe even longer as he gets his game back). Once Sekera does return he will most certainly have a fall off in his play this season. Players recovering froma serious injury like he had simply dont hit the ice running at full speed.
I think we can count on McDavid being as good if not better...thats a given.

So to answer the question....has this team gotten better....its not just a question of looking at which players were added and which players departed.

A lot has to go right for this team next season to even match their point totals of last season. So I dont see how someone can legitimately suggest the team is better. There is just too much uncertainty.

A few points regarding the bold.

Both Letestu and Maroon have scored at the same or better rates in multiple seasons in the past. Maroon's goal production skyrocketed, but his point production isn't all that different than when he was playing well with the Ducks for a couple of seasons.

Klefbom and Drai are still young players, it's tough to say whether this past season was a "career" year or just a player continuing their development.

Talbot set career highs in GP and wins, but not save percentage or GAA. He's shown he's able to put these types of numbers up his entire career.

And even if you do want to say these guys all had career years, you can just as quickly go with the counter argument. Lucic and RNH are the two who most obvious cases as guys who in this past season had years which were below their career norms and as much as you can wonder if some of our high performing players will come down to earn you can wonder if some of the under performing guys from last year will bounce back.

 

[KCC]

That French guy and jussi both said they came to edm because they are contenders for the cup. That nice to hear but I really don't think so. In fact they could even take a step backwards. I guess I just don't see it yet. Soon. Not now.

 

[Mr Positive]

A few points regarding the bold.

Both Letestu and Maroon have scored at the same or better rates in multiple seasons in the past. Maroon's goal production skyrocketed, but his point production isn't all that different than when he was playing well with the Ducks for a couple of seasons.

Klefbom and Drai are still young players, it's tough to say whether this past season was a "career" year or just a player continuing their development.

Talbot set career highs in GP and wins, but not save percentage or GAA. He's shown he's able to put these types of numbers up his entire career.

And even if you do want to say these guys all had career years, you can just as quickly go with the counter argument. Lucic and RNH are the two who most obvious cases as guys who in this past season had years which were below their career norms and as much as you can wonder if some of our high performing players will come down to earn you can wonder if some of the under performing guys from last year will bounce back.

I agree about Talbot. He didn't have a Vezina season or anything close really. It was a very solid but very realistic season for him. The big question mark about Talbot was whether or not he could handle playing a full season as a strarter, and he put those concerns to bed. If anything, a guy like Bobrovsky would be the one to regress a bit. This past season was nothing like how the Avs rode Varly to the division lead that one year.

And yes, our young players will be one year closer to their physical primes and will be better off for it. If players think we could be a contender, they might be right. We have a group of perhaps 5 guys who could be leveling off or regressing due to age, but a group of 20 guys that will be better than last season because they will be closer to their physical primes.

 

[guymez]

A few points regarding the bold.

Both Letestu and Maroon have scored at the same or better rates in multiple seasons in the past. Maroon's goal production skyrocketed, but his point production isn't all that different than when he was playing well with the Ducks for a couple of seasons.

Actually this isnt true at all. Maroon had 30+ points once in his career prior to last season. 42 points in 2016/17 was a career season for him and the goals were more than double what he historically gets.
Letestu had 11 PP goals last season...is that likely to happen again?

Klefbom and Drai are still young players, it's tough to say whether this past season was a "career" year or just a player continuing their development.

Talbot set career highs in GP and wins, but not save percentage or GAA. He's shown he's able to put these types of numbers up his entire career.

Yes they are both young players but that doesnt negate the fact that last season was their best season to date. Can they duplicate that...maybe...maybe not.

As for Talbot....he had the best numbers of his career (S/O...sv%) and led the NHL in games played and wins.
I expect him to be solid but that will be a difficult feat to pull off again.

And even if you do want to say these guys all had career years, you can just as quickly go with the counter argument. Lucic and RNH are the two who most obvious cases as guys who in this past season had years which were below their career norms and as much as you can wonder if some of our high performing players will come down to earn you can wonder if some of the under performing guys from last year will bounce back.

I will give you RNH...his scoring was down a bit (down to .52 ppg from an avg of .67ppg) but Lucic was right on par with a .61 ppg.
So Lucic delivered pretty much what he always does.

The point being that there were not many under performing players last season. Far more players over performed.
The team will be hard pressed to match their point total from last season especially with the defence being worse.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Right now about roughly the same. The Oilers will need to progress as individuals and as a team and things will be a bit tougher next year. They also need to remain healthy, as they were very fortunate that basically every main piece was healthy throughout the season and playoffs. Since we already down one d-man, they will have have to perform well in his absence. The team benefitted from many things last year and while it's not impossible to replicate their success, teams will be gunning for them, especially within the division.

If they pick up from where they left off at the end of last year's regular season there shouldn't be anything to worry about, but they must maintain a decent record and health until Sekera returns.

 

[VainGretzky]

The majority of players are still trending up... even more so the core , to suggest the team is worse than last season is a reach at best.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

The majority of players are still trending up... even more so the core , to suggest the team is worse than last season is a reach at best.

exactly

did the Ducks get better? no

did the Flames? improved defense, about the same goaltending..still small and soft up front

SJ? nope, got worse

LA? nope

 

[Joey Moss]

So you think that every player who had a career year will match or exceed their career season and every young player on the team will take a step forward.

Pretty unlikely.

My post literally says "Not everyone will take a step forward, but you have to think some of the younger depth players (Caggiula, Slepyshev, Nurse, Benning) all have potential to do so"

So, no that's not what I said.

 

[guymez]

My post literally says "Not everyone will take a step forward, but you have to think some of the younger depth players (Caggiula, Slepyshev, Nurse, Benning) all have potential to do so"

So, no that's not what I said.

Well...every player has the 'potential' to equal or improve on what they did last year. My point (I should have been clearer) was that the more players you include in that the less likely it is to happen.
I would suggest that with all the younger players having more responsibility next season...expecting them to do better is a little unrealistic.

Its truly puzzling how this team is expected by some to be better when the defence is clearly worse.

 

[Del Preston]

I think they are better on paper and will be better on ice. Last season's success and the playoff run is going to be a big help. There were a lot more question marks about the roster last summer than there is now, for me anyway.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think they are better on paper and will be better on ice. Last season's success and the playoff run is going to be a big help. There were a lot more question marks about the roster last summer than there is now, for me anyway.

there are a couple positions where that is true for sure.

Last year we were using Caggiula as our 3C for a lot of the time. Strome has more NHL experience than Caggiula, and of course Caggiula has grown too. And, we might just have RNH as 3C this season.

And there's also RHD puckmover this year. Benning also grew a lot, and we might have some help with Auvitu (maybe).

Also in general, our D grew as a group. Our PP was awful to start the season but red-hot to finish, and I think a lot of that is that our D was learning how to be more aggressive and support the forwards on the PP better.

 

[Spawn]

Actually this isnt true at all. Maroon had 30+ points once in his career prior to last season. 42 points in 2016/17 was a career season for him and the goals were more than double what he historically gets.
Letestu had 11 PP goals last season...is that likely to happen again?

The last 4 seasons Patrick Maroon has had ppg of:
0.47
0.48
0.38
0.52

So yes. Maroon has scored at similar rates in the past. I already pointed out his goal numbers sky rocketed, but his point production is relatively in line with a large portion of his playing career.

Letestu put up 0.45ppg this year. He has had 4 other seasons with a ppg of at least .40.

Both of these players performed at reasonable rates considering the offensive opportunities they had. Will Letestu score 11 power play goals again? Who knows. But whoever is the right shot on that unit probably will. Draisaitl/McDavid are too good at passing for whoever is in that slot not to score a lot of goals.

Yes they are both young players but that doesnt negate the fact that last season was their best season to date. Can they duplicate that...maybe...maybe not.

Of course maybe, maybe not. But you make it seem like it's unlikely. The season before Klefbom put up a 32 point pace. Put up 38 this season. And Draisaitl was scoring at a similar rate for the first half of the season prior before he and Hall hit a bit of a wall. It's not at all unreasonable to expect a similar level of production out of these guys this upcoming season.

As for Talbot....he had the best numbers of his career (S/O...sv%) and led the NHL in games played and wins.
I expect him to be solid but that will be a difficult feat to pull off again.

No... he didn't have the best numbers of his career. He started the most games of his career and thus had the best games played related stats of his career (wins, shut outs etc). He didn't post his best personal numbers though. Both of his seasons with the Rangers saw him post a better save percentage and GAA than he did this past season. Talbot was very good this year. He's given no indication that he overperformed though.

I will give you RNH...his scoring was down a bit (down to .52 ppg from an avg of .67ppg) but Lucic was right on par with a .61 ppg.
So Lucic delivered pretty much what he always does.

This might be all Lucic is, but he's definitely had better seasons than he just had.

The point being that there were not many under performing players last season. Far more players over performed.
The team will be hard pressed to match their point total from last season especially with the defence being worse.

Patrick Maroon over performed in terms of goal production. Other than that I'm not sure it's safe to say anyone definitively over performed on the roster.

The team might be worse next season. I think Sekera missing time and downgrading from Eberle to Strome will hurt the team. But I'm not sure I agree with much else of what you're saying.

 

[Bank Shot]

Letestu had 11 PP goals last season...is that likely to happen again?

I'm not too worried about that. His role on the PP was basically, "Stand there with your right handed shot and wait for McDavid to spoon feed you goals."

Letestu got into that role because Eberle was running cold. Mclellan rewards performance.

If Letestu does well he will score those PP goals again. If he slumps it will be Strome, or Puljujarvi, or maybe even Slepyshev.

Someone will get them though because McDavid.

Same thing with Maroon. If he doesn't score those goals on McDavid's wing, then someone else will play there and get them.

What the Oilers need is a rebound in offence away from Mcdavid by whoever is playing with RNH. That line needs to be better.

 

[Jesus Take the Wheel]

We were one point away from winning the division with a young roster and people think we are going to get worse? I see it broken down this way..

Potential to improve or meet last years performance:
McDavid
Drai (although could regress point wise if playing 2C)
RNH
Pulj
Cag
Slep
Kass
Strome
Jokinen (one off year in Fla)
Klef
Larsson
Benning
Nurse
Backup goaltending (aka Brossoit)

Regress or meet last years performance:
Maroon
Lucic
Letestu (if he's not on pp1, will more then likely regress a little with defensive responsibilities)

Stay the same:
Gryba
Russell
Talbot (will be better in playoffs due to hopefully less games played with a better backup)
Sekera

I'm not saying any of this will or won't happen, but i see it as this is the most likely situation with every roster player and even if everything stays status quo we almost won the division last year. Its foolish to think we will be worse next season.

 

[McSuper]

We will be better, without a doubt. Pretty similar team to last years but McDavid, Drai, RNH, Klefbom, Larsson, Drake, Slepy, Nurse and Benning will all be better as they are still young and ever improving.

None of what you said here can be proven and counting on everyone to improve isn't the smartest thing to do . I am sure there will be some players that improve and some will take a step back . All in all on paper a pretty similar team . Pouliot is gone but JJ is better . Eberle is gone but if Strome provides 60% of the points playing a lessor role and a more defensive responsible forward plays the additional minutes we are likely even there .


Now if RNH plays on McDavid,s wing and puts up 80% of what Draisaitl did and Draisaitl can play like he did in the playoffs centring the 2nd line we will be a much improve team . There will be no more shutting down 1 line as we would have an 1A/1B .

The one consistence is Nurse has improved every year since he was drafted . I expect that to continue . Klefbom was also healthy for the first time in years and his play improved so much it should give him much more confidence and I think you could see a very good #1D emerging . I am talking a true #1D someone that can control the game with his 2 way play

 

[La Bamba]

No Eberle + Pouliot = Improvement

 

[CupofOil]

I think its important to shine alight on who had career years last season.

Can we expect a repeat performance to match their career best seasons from players like Talbot....Klefbom...Maroon...Draisaitl and Letestu?

Can players like Slepyshev, Caggiula, Benning and Nurse continue to develop in a positive direction?

The defence is worse than last season (for sure for the first 2 months of the season until Sekera gets back...maybe even longer as he gets his game back). Once Sekera does return he will most certainly have a fall off in his play this season. Players recovering froma serious injury like he had simply dont hit the ice running at full speed.
I think we can count on McDavid being as good if not better...thats a given.

So to answer the question....has this team gotten better....its not just a question of looking at which players were added and which players departed.

A lot has to go right for this team next season to even match their point totals of last season. So I dont see how someone can legitimately suggest the team is better. There is just too much uncertainty.

You can say that about a lot of teams though. There are lots of teams that are depending on young players to improve. The key, as is always the case, is avoiding serious injuries to too many key players. If the Oilers remain relatively healthy (esp. McDavid and Talbot), they will be in the mix with the best of the conference. Keep in mind that they added a lot of versatility to their lineup with Jokinen and Strome and this is especially important because the Oilers were a one trick pony in the bottom 9 last season mixed with a bunch of combos that failed to work. The 3rd line in particular was a total disaster last season and will be MUCH MUCH improved this season.

I personally think we'll see regression in the standings simply because lots of bubble teams in the west improved so I expect this season to be more of a grind because lets be frank, the Oilers greatly benefitted from an usually weak west last season.

I think this will be a case of the Oilers finishing lower in the standings but being a better team. I don't think they were particularly good most of last season with a few players carrying the team until the secondary players finally showed up in the last 20 games or so. We'll see a more balanced effort this season with less passengers and more experienced youngsters.

 

[Porkleaker]

The only thing that really stings is Sekera being out, otherwise I see most of the team trending upwards. McDavid is just going to get better, and makes everyone around him better.

 

[McTrashBoat]

No Eberle + Pouliot = Improvement

maybe their replacements don't score as many goals, but I'm damn sure they'll allow fewer and make a bigger impact elsewhere

 

[LTIR]

The only thing that really stings is Sekera being out, otherwise I see most of the team trending upwards. McDavid is just going to get better, and makes everyone around him better.

It will be good for development of Nurse and Benning.
Sekera injury helped us during playoffs too since it forced McLellan to split the brutal pairing of Nurse-Benning.

 

[bone]

It will be good for development of Nurse and Benning.
Sekera injury helped us during playoffs too since it forced McLellan to split the brutal pairing of Nurse-Benning.

are you saying Nurse-Gryba was better?

 

[LTIR]

are you saying Nurse-Gryba was better?

Nurse-Gryba was better than Nurse-Benning

 

[sepHF]

No Eberle + Pouliot = Improvement

Losing one of our top scorers and a good pker = improvement?