Hate to be that guy but........ Oilers are BACK... but were they ever gone?

[Mav3rick07]

I am a pessimist at heart in regards to the Oilers but this is just math. The odds are not good to come back from that start. The odds were approximately 10% at the end of October if I am remembering correctly.

Obviously better today but the present is still just a point in time. Big picture that 10% still has relevance statistically. The ups and downs of an nhl season needs to be factored.

Even if hypothetically the Oilers won another 5 games in a row they very likely would not be in a playoff position without significant help from other teams. Making up 5 points typically takes a month/months of good play.

No where even close to a playoff appearance at this exact moment is fair.

According to moneypuck.com, the Oilers currently have a 52 percent chance of making the playoffs.

 

[TheNumber4]

My theory on the horrid Start we saw this year:

This team has always needed a long run way to hit their peak. This is who the Oilers showed they are for how many years now. This year the Goal was to flip that script and start out hot out of the gates. This is why Connor called for the early Captain's Skates.

I don't think the Oilers came out flat effort wise to start the season, effort had nothing to do with it, I believe in the character in the room and I think they've earned that reputation. Those games against the Nucks they were trying, the effort was there to bring their A game early that usually would take a good 3-5 months for the entire team to eventually evolve into. They tried to bring it early and failed to execute, as nothing was clicking, and mistakes were piling up. The team hadn't learned to Peak out of the gates or maybe they set their expectations too high and that was never in the cards. That then snowballed into a lack of confidence through out the line up and it got worse from there.

We also know what this team was under Woody. And that was still an elite team, but an elite team that didn't put enough importance and emphasis on minimizing mistakes and being responsible defensively. These are the teams we watched in the playoffs get burned for 9 goals against talentless hacks like the Flames. The defensive mindset was not there. So I think this lack of defensive mindset was still here in spades during the beginning of the season but amplified cause we were trying to be a team that we weren't ready to be (the long runway argument).

This theory is also why I think under Knob/Coffey we will be a better team than we've ever seen before in the McD era. The team will still find its find its execution and offence to be able to run teams out of the building with pure offence, but that probably was coming back if Woody stayed anyways. So now with Knob/Coffey we are adding that defensive mindset on top of the high effort, high offence teams that Woody helped build. Thus why we are seeing this type of dominance now in our games. We got everything Woody built but added so much needed defensive mindset from Knob/Coffey.

 

[mkatcherin00]

We are trending nicely. I welcome a wildcard spot. Let Vancouver play LA or Veg in round one..

I do not want 2nd or 3rd place anymore. It was 1st (not happening) or Wildcard. I cannot stand these stupid playoff seeding rules. I liked the simple 1v8, etc

 

[joestevens29]

One game at a time

Can't remember if it was Woody or Tippett or Mclellan or all of them, but when teams are in a funk and behind in the standing don't they talk about looking at the next 3 or 5 games as mini-series. Where the goal is to win those little mini-series and you'll eventually get back into it.

I always liked that mentality to be honest. Puts it into a more achievable goal instead of saying we need to win 35 more games this year

 

[ujju2]

Can't remember if it was Woody or Tippett or Mclellan or all of them, but when teams are in a funk and behind in the standing don't they talk about looking at the next 3 or 5 games as mini-series. Where the goal is to win those little mini-series and you'll eventually get back into it.

I always liked that mentality to be honest. Puts it into a more achievable goal instead of saying we need to win 35 more games this year

Yup. Interestingly, it sounds like Knoblauch looks slightly longer term - he's mentioned setting goals for 8 game segments multiple times.

 

[joestevens29]

Yup. Interestingly, it sounds like Knoblauch looks slightly longer term - he's mentioned setting goals for 8 game segments multiple times.

Must've missed that. Thanks!!!

 

[ZJuice]

Can't remember if it was Woody or Tippett or Mclellan or all of them, but when teams are in a funk and behind in the standing don't they talk about looking at the next 3 or 5 games as mini-series. Where the goal is to win those little mini-series and you'll eventually get back into it.

I always liked that mentality to be honest. Puts it into a more achievable goal instead of saying we need to win 35 more games this year

I know gulutzan definitely said that 3 game series thing when he was with the Flames

 

[Stoneman89]

Hopefully not to jinx or anything but injuries slumps etc... are all factors in that original statistics. I don't think it's at all accurate to suggest that teams that are supposed to be good will generally make it.

I never suggested everyone of them will make it. Just that typically, the ones that do, tend to be the better teams in the first place.