Hate to be that guy but........ Oilers are BACK... but were they ever gone?

[CornKicker]

I dont want to make a huge OP about it but....... did the Oilers intentionally start the season bad to give other teams a chance?

Click to read more...

 

[joestevens29]

Kind of half ass mentioned it in post game thread.

Two keys for me are;

Getting healthy. Ekholm clearly wasn't healthy enough to play the minutes he was, but we had no choice. The guy was asked to play too many minutes which he couldn't, plus he was also expected to cover for his partners. Now if he had a competent partner maybe him playing all those minutes wouldn't have looked so bad as he could've focused on himself.

The other key is how Coffey will take a bad play and spin in a positive way to the players. It literally was getting to the point where guys were so afraid to make mistakes that it was hampering what they were good at. It's also nice to see Coffey isn't afraid to have those same conversations with forwards. Think it's really important for guys like McLeod, Hamblin, Holloway(when he's back) or whoever may come up from the AHL gets this kind of mentorship. I know Ekholm does it from time to time with guys, I know Malone in the AHL was really good at having those conversations as well with developing players. But, having a coach doing it too gives you that extra boost of confidence.

And no I don't think they tanked on purpose. They need as many points as possible before April. April's schedule is going to be tough on the guys. There are going to be points that we lose and/or giveaway(OT/SO losses to teams close to us in standings) towards the end of the year from fatigue IMO.

 

[brentashton]

 

[The Nuge]

They obviously weren’t doing it on purpose, but it was clear we were just struggling because of historically bad goaltending. Through 12 games we had a combined .861 SV%. Even Campbell’s .888 SV% from last year would have resulted in 9 less goals over that span 40 vs 49). Skinner’s .914 SV% would be 19 less goals (30 vs 49). In 12 games. Considering we lost 4 1 goal games, even with bad goaltending but just a couple goals different here and there, we could have gone 6-6 instead of 2-9-1

 

[Aerchon]

I said no, but I am NOT a Flames fan.

Last year the Oilers started out very similar. Last year tho they had a ton of puck luck. Last year practically after every win the tele-team would be saying "found a way to win", "not the better team but got it done", "lots to clean up but a win is a win".

I only started to believe the Oilers were even a good team until after the Ekholm Aquisition. I still dont believe one player, as good as Ekholm is, can change a team from lucky to out score opponents to a Stanley Cup contender.

I just hope the Oilers can string together a lucky streak at just the right time in the post season to win a cup. Because this team has very obvious flaws that most Stanley Cup teams do not.

With a healthy Ekholm they are a playoff team. Without him they are not and the season is still most likely to end with the Oilers missing the playoffs.... Thats just the numbers of trying to over come a horrendous start. They are in tough and not so amazing to assume they will even make the playoffs this year.

I dont believe for a second goaltending was THE primary issue for the Oilers bad start. I honestly dont know how anyone watching those games can think that. Obviously the goaltending was shit as well but I dont believe Patrick Roy at his peak could have stopped many of the goals the Oilers were giving up at the start of the season.

 

[Stoneman89]

I dont want to make a huge OP about it but....... did the Oilers intentionally start the season bad to give other teams a chance?

Highly and incredibly unusual and outrageous take, but.............no.

 

[ujju2]

I said no, but I am NOT a Flames fan.

And yet, I can clearly see that you voted "I am a Flames fan."

With a healthy Ekholm they are a playoff team. Without him they are not and the season is still most likely to end with the Oilers missing the playoffs.... Thats just the numbers of trying to over come a horrendous start. They are in tough and not so amazing to assume they will even make the playoffs this year.

In all seriousness, they're 5 points back of the last wild card spot with 2 games in hand... to say the most likely outcome is missing the playoffs seems more than a tad hyperbolic imo.

 

[Aerchon]

I am a pessimist at heart in regards to the Oilers but this is just math. The odds are not good to come back from that start. The odds were approximately 10% at the end of October if I am remembering correctly.

Obviously better today but the present is still just a point in time. Big picture that 10% still has relevance statistically. The ups and downs of an nhl season needs to be factored.

Even if hypothetically the Oilers won another 5 games in a row they very likely would not be in a playoff position without significant help from other teams. Making up 5 points typically takes a month/months of good play.

No where even close to a playoff appearance at this exact moment is fair.

 

[5 14 6 1]

One game at a time

 

[ujju2]

I am a pessimist at heart in regards to the Oilers but this is just math. The odds are not good to come back from that start. The odds were approximately 10% at the end of October if I am remembering correctly.

Obviously better today but the present is still just a point in time. Big picture that 10% still has relevance statistically. The ups and downs of an nhl season needs to be factored.

This seems a bit fallacious to me. If the ups and downs of the season need to be considered, why does that start at the end of October? Why isn't the first month+ of the season being accounted for as one of those "downs"?

In other words, if the 10% odds at the end of October have statistical relevance, then so should the 75% odds before the first game of the season. And if the change from 75% at season's start to 10% at the end of October matters, then the change from 10% to whatever higher number we are at right now also matters. Regression to the mean is a logical and statistical fallacy, which is why the current odds are the only thing I'm worried about.

 

[ujju2]

Even if hypothetically the Oilers won another 5 games in a row they very likely would not be in a playoff position without significant help from other teams. Making up 5 points typically takes a month/months of good play.

I mean sure, but if we won five straight, like in your scenario, we would very, very likely be in a playoff spot. In fact, if we just win the next 2 games, we'll only be a point back with even games played. If we won 5 straight, the only way we wouldn't be at least tied for a playoff spot is if St. Louis went 3-0, which is possible but not something I'd bet on.

 

[McFlash97]

I am a pessimist at heart in regards to the Oilers but this is just math. The odds are not good to come back from that start. The odds were approximately 10% at the end of October if I am remembering correctly.

Obviously better today but the present is still just a point in time. Big picture that 10% still has relevance statistically. The ups and downs of an nhl season needs to be factored.

Even if hypothetically the Oilers won another 5 games in a row they very likely would not be in a playoff position without significant help from other teams. Making up 5 points typically takes a month/months of good play.

No where even close to a playoff appearance at this exact moment is fair.

A really negative outlook.

It doesn't matter what the teams in front of the Oilers do. None of those teams are going to hold off a team capable of regularly winning 5 or 6 in a row the rest of the way. If the Oilers just continue to pile up wins they will jump over these teams within a month and a half.

This is basically the same team that went 22-2 backhalf of last season, and it looks like they are now playing a more robust system since Coffey and Knob took over.

Oilers will challenge Vegas for the division crown. I have no issues with this claim.

 

[Aerchon]

This seems a bit fallacious to me. If the ups and downs of the season need to be considered, why does that start at the end of October? Why isn't the first month+ of the season being accounted for as one of those "downs"?

In other words, if the 10% odds at the end of October have statistical relevance, then so should the 75% odds before the first game of the season. And if the change from 75% at season's start to 10% at the end of October matters, then the change from 10% to whatever higher number we are at right now also matters. Regression to the mean is a logical and statistical fallacy, which is why the current odds are the only thing I'm worried about.

You are absolutely right that the start of the season "could" be one of the valleys. But we don't know that. And it's likely we will have more valleys coming up... and we are still a good month away from a playoff spot...

The 10% takes into consideration all historical data at that point in time for every nhl team ever. It's relevance is quiet significant.

I am not a mathematician. Obviously. But I would guess that to come up with a more realistic number at the moment it would be to balance today's stats with those stats and find an average using the ratio of games played.

I don't know what today's stats are but they can't be great. The number you end up with would likely still be very low even factoring in the current peak.

I thought there was an active mathematician on this board. If they happen to come across this maybe they can shed some light.

I would be pleasantly surprised if our odds are "actually" above 50% using some solid math.

 

[fireantz]

Season only 25% done. We’re 13 in the conference. Quit looking down the road! Where did “cup or bust” get us. Beat the wild and and climb over them and the Cracken. A couple more wins this homestand will get us past Cowtown. Positive play should get us to Nashville, St. Louis and Arizona by the TD. The stretch drive is where we hopefully will shine

 

[ujju2]

I thought there was an active mathematician on this board. If they happen to come across this maybe they can shed some light.

I would be pleasantly surprised if our odds are "actually" above 50% using some solid math.

Agreed. I do think it's important to note though that these models aren't purely mathematical. Without a doubt, teams outside the playoffs at any given stage of the season will have a <50% chance of making the playoffs from that point on based on historical averages, that's just common sense. In fact, if it was pure mathematics, each team would have the exact same 50% chance of making the playoffs at season's beginning. Where it gets tricky is factoring in team quality. And while there are mathematical formulae that account for this (which is how we end up with actually useful numbers like 10% and 75%), they can't be perfect. But what I will say is when a team that is mathematically good enough to start the season with a 75% chance of postseason at 0 games played is 5 points out with 2 games in hand around the quarter-mark of the season, my guess would be the probability of that team making the playoffs is probably pretty close to 50% at least. But that's again just a guess from me.

 

[Aerchon]

I mean sure, but if we won five straight, like in your scenario, we would very, very likely be in a playoff spot. In fact, if we just win the next 2 games, we'll only be a point back with even games played. If we won 5 straight, the only way we wouldn't be at least tied for a playoff spot is if St. Louis went 3-0, which is possible but not something I'd bet on.

If the top 6 teams in the conference lost every single game and the Oilers win their next 5... they still are at best... best... with luck... in the #1 wild card spot. I say this to show perspective against the teams in solid playoff contention.

There are 7! Teams ahead of the Oilers currently. Only 2 need to have good winning records over the next 5 games to keep us out of the playoff picture. Again, so not a mathematician but that, on the surface, seems very unlikely.

 

[ZJuice]

I have a feeling the players had no faith in woodcroft especially after the series against Vegas. They played to get Tippett fired so I wouldn't put it past this group to do it again.

I was laughing at all the preseason rankings about how high the Oilers were ranked.. I had lost lots of faith after that Colorado spanking but I let it go. Almost losing to the Kings then getting absolutely schooled by Vegas and their coach I had ZERO faith in this team under woodcroft.
I have to wonder if he even held physical practices or did he just have everyone sit in circles and talk..

Maybe there were actually playing to get Schwartz fired and it just ended with Woody's demise..

 

[Arpeggio]

You are absolutely right that the start of the season "could" be one of the valleys. But we don't know that. And it's likely we will have more valleys coming up... and we are still a good month away from a playoff spot...

The 10% takes into consideration all historical data at that point in time for every nhl team ever. It's relevance is quiet significant.

I am not a mathematician. Obviously. But I would guess that to come up with a more realistic number at the moment it would be to balance today's stats with those stats and find an average using the ratio of games played.

I don't know what today's stats are but they can't be great. The number you end up with would likely still be very low even factoring in the current peak.

I thought there was an active mathematician on this board. If they happen to come across this maybe they can shed some light.

I would be pleasantly surprised if our odds are "actually" above 50% using some solid math.

I'm not a statistician either, but I'm fairly confident that the "10% chance at American Thanksgiving" actually has no bearing on the chance that the team has to make the playoffs now. If you rip off 10 straight wins, the chances of making the playoffs have to include those 10 wins, not what you did prior to the ten wins.

Something you also have to factor in is that the Oilers are a significantly better team than basically all of the teams surrounding them in the standings, both on paper and statistically. Based on goal differential, advanced stats, historical performance, basically any metric you want to look at.

This is also why the Oilers are significant favourites to make the playoffs on Vegas. And not like narrow favourites, they have them at like 70% to make it in.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I dont want to make a huge OP about it but....... did the Oilers intentionally start the season bad to give other teams a chance?

Yeah they wanted to get the coach fired, get scorched my fans ans media, send a goalie down?

Let's see where we are in the standings on Jan 1st

 

[Stoneman89]

It is really important to consider how they're playing now though. This really has the appearance of being sustainable and not some outlier. And keep in mind, the more teams that we put in the rear view mirror, makes moving up much more palpatable. A lot easier to catch one or 2 teams than 6 or 7.

I'm not a statistician either, but I'm fairly confident that the "10% chance at American Thanksgiving" actually has no bearing on the chance that the team has to make the playoffs now. If you rip off 10 straight wins, the chances of making the playoffs have to include those 10 wins, not what you did prior to the ten wins.

Something you also have to factor in is that the Oilers are a significantly better team than basically all of the teams surrounding them in the standings, both on paper and statistically. Based on goal differential, advanced stats, historical performance, basically any metric you want to look at.

This is also why the Oilers are significant favourites to make the playoffs on Vegas. And not like narrow favourites, they have them at like 70% to make it in.

Agreed. People need to realize that most of those teams missing the playoff cutline at American Thanksgiving are where they ought to be in the first place, nd they typically remain shitty for the rest of the year for the most part. The other small % that make the playoffs are the ones that are too good to be there and have had a bad start, injuries, etc. We're in that category.

 

[Aerchon]

I'm not a statistician either, but I'm fairly confident that the "10% chance at American Thanksgiving" actually has no bearing on the chance that the team has to make the playoffs now. If you rip off 10 straight wins, the chances of making the playoffs have to include those 10 wins, not what you did prior to the ten wins.

Something you also have to factor in is that the Oilers are a significantly better team than basically all of the teams surrounding them in the standings, both on paper and statistically. Based on goal differential, advanced stats, historical performance, basically any metric you want to look at.

This is also why the Oilers are significant favourites to make the playoffs on Vegas. And not like narrow favourites, they have them at like 70% to make it in.

It is really important to consider how they're playing now though. This really has the appearance of being sustainable and not some outlier. And keep in mind, the more teams that we put in the rear view mirror, makes moving up much more palpatable. A lot easier to catch one or 2 teams than 6 or 7.


Agreed. People need to realize that most of those teams missing the playoff cutline at American Thanksgiving are where they ought to be in the first place, nd they typically remain shitty for the rest of the year for the most part. The other small % that make the playoffs are the ones that are too good to be there and have had a bad start, injuries, etc. We're in that category.

Hopefully not to jinx or anything but injuries slumps etc... are all factors in that original statistics. I don't think it's at all accurate to suggest that teams that are supposed to be good will generally make it.

 

[KCC]

I dont want to make a huge OP about it but....... did the Oilers intentionally start the season bad to give other teams a chance?

Sure, that's exactly what happened. Good God, man. lol

 

[Leonardlizard]

All I have to say is imagine our spot in the standings if we had the elite offense of klim Kostin . Did anyone catch what Bedard said about him when asked about Patty Kane ?

"I've always felt he was undervalued and I've enjoyed watching him play. Kind of reminds me of a tougher Auston Matthews. The red wings with Kane and Klim are going to be so dangerous."

Something like that.

He literally scored as a posted this.

 

[McFlash97]

Personally think the Oilers can get to 8 wins in a row here. 1 game at a time. They need to come out gangbusters again against Minny. Take the lead, then they can dictate the rest of the game.

 

[GOilers88]

The plan was always to pull a St. Louis.

Why do you think they all came to camp early?