Has Selänne surpassed Kurri?

[Hardyvan123]

I'm sure I'm not the only one whose eyes glaze over when I see someone use standard adjusted stats to compare a player from the 80s with a player from the dead puck era, after it's been shown time and time again that they overrate star players from the dead puck era (or underrate stars from the 80s, however you want to look at it).

Really they overrate star players from the deadpuck (or clutch and grab and huge goalie pad era).

Is that an opinion or fact?

And the main point is that "real stats" are thrown out all the time and not in context.

At least adjusted stats, although perhaps not perfect, give a truer comparison IMO.

 

[seventieslord]

I'm sure I'm not the only one whose eyes glaze over when I see someone use standard adjusted stats to compare a player from the 80s with a player from the dead puck era, after it's been shown time and time again that they overrate star players from the dead puck era (or underrate stars from the 80s, however you want to look at it).

You're definitely not. I think everyone in here is knowlegable enough to understand that a 50-goal season in 1985 was a little different than one in 1998. That's as far is it needs to go. Presenting the adjusted numbers themselves is inaccurate and a waste of time as far as I'm concerned.

they do seem to disproportionately overrate dead puck era players and underrate guys from 1993 and earlier. I've found that if you just add 10% to the 1980-1993 numbers it makes a lot more intutive sense.

Now if only there was some sort of formula that proved this was proper. Using the standard adjustment formulas the standard is right as it is. But it doesn't always give results that make sense when put next to eachother.

As far as I know, no one has really solved the mystery of why the numbers come out like this.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

they do seem to disproportionately overrate dead puck era players and underrate guys from 1993 and earlier. I've found that if you just add 10% to the 1980-1993 numbers it makes a lot more intutive sense.

Now if only there was some sort of formula that proved this was proper. Using the standard adjustment formulas the standard is right as it is. But it doesn't always give results that make sense when put next to eachother.

As far as I know, no one has really solved the mystery of why the numbers come out like this.

It was shown in another thread that first line forwards scored a significantly higher % of overall league goals (and points) in the DPE than in the 1980s. Therefore, a formula based on overall league goals will overrate first line forwards and underrate role players from the DPE, compared to the 80s. As far as I'm concerned, this has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt.
___________________

As for why?

Overpass showed that a higher % of goals are scored on the PP in the DPE compared to the 80s. It was never shown how much of the difference is do to this, but I'm sure it's a major factor.

Kyle (I think it was) also hypothesized that more mistakes made by goaltenders and defenses in the 1980s benefited all players so role players got a higher % of the offense than in the DPE, when there were fewer mistakes and players had to use their talent to create offense. This wasn't proven but sounds reasonable to me. (If I didn't explain it well, it means that part of the decrease in offense from the 80s to the DPE is linear (fewer mistakes) rather than proportional (harder for talented players to score)).

_____________________

Cognition created a formula adjusting stats based on the average scoring rate of the 3rd - 18th best scorer in the league, rather than league scoring as a whole. Intuitively, it should fix the above problem, so long as it's only applied to scoring line forwards who got significant PP time. I think it's too early to tell if it's reliable, though.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Maybe things would be easier to compare if we went back to traditional goalie equipment but we have to remember the safety of the goalies 1st right?

I understand the arguments against adjusted stats and how they seem to favour certain players but maybe they are also an indication of how the game has changed as well.

if 1st line or PP players get better treatment from adjusted stats are we going to penalize those players for it?

The forward pass change the game and very little is mentioned of it on these boards. Dido for many other changes and adjustments that the NHL has ahd over time.

My main point still stands that adjusted stats are much better than just clearly looking at actual stats when comparing players from different seasons.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Maybe things would be easier to compare if we went back to traditional goalie equipment but we have to remember the safety of the goalies 1st right?

I understand the arguments against adjusted stats and how they seem to favour certain players but maybe they are also an indication of how the game has changed as well.

if 1st line or PP players get better treatment from adjusted stats are we going to penalize those players for it?

The forward pass change the game and very little is mentioned of it on these boards. Dido for many other changes and adjustments that the NHL has ahd over time.

My main point still stands that adjusted stats are much better than just clearly looking at actual stats when comparing players from different seasons.

If a formula FAILS at doing what it is supposed to do, you admire the effort and then throw it in the garbage. In this case, the formula (adjusting stats according to overall league scoring) fails at doing exactly what it is supposed to do - compare players between different eras.

That's what I'm saying. Just my opinion of course.

Edit: I mean, there might still be some merits to the formula (I've used it to compare the offense of non-star players in the All-Time Draft), but I don't see the point in using it for star players when there are better ways of comparing them.

 

[Starchild74]

He tore his Achilles Tendon. Does that count as something?



Selanne was nominated for the Hart Trophy despite being on the second-worst team in the conference. He nearly took the 1st Team All-Star spot over Jagr despite trailing him by 16 points. He got noticed.



He scored 36 points in his first 28 games with Anaheim and nearly pushed them over his old team, Winnipeg, for the 8th seed. They were 16-9-3 with him. Prorated for 82 games, that would've been good enough for 103 points- third in the league behind Detroit and Colorado.



He lit up Vancouver for a hat trick in Game 3 of his first series- Winnipeg's first home game. He scored the OT winner in Game 5. That's 2 GWG in his first series- the only two wins for the Jets- in his only series up until 1997. He handled his business against Phoenix in 1997 (3 Goals, 2 Assists in the first two games; 2 Goals, 1 Assist to close out the series after Khabibulin nearly stole it), then played 8 games against Detroit in the middle of their 9-series winning streak. And then his injuries took over in 2000, he left Anaheim, and posters like you and Nalyd Psycho re-wrote history because he was stubborn enough to have played bad hockey on a bad leg for five seasons.

Then he scored the most important goal in franchise history against Detroit as an overachieving powerplay specializing 37-year-old after setting up the tying goal in the final minute, but that's neither here nor there, eh?

Yes it was unfortunate that Selanne was injured but he was injured and a combination of that and maybe a sophmore slump which is undesrstandable after such a great rookie year. The point I was making was consistency. In order to be consistent you also have to be lucky enough to stay healthy. Kurri was pretty lucky in that aspect and because of that he was more consistent

I am not saying that he didn't get noticed it is just that in 1998 Bondra and he tied for the lead in goal scoring and then Bondra went on a good playoff run. Now if you read my post I said I felt Selanne had the better year however Bondra by some was considered to be the better winger. He was just never the best or top two really. Even though Selanne was voted to the 1st team all star that year over Jagr. If you polled every GM in the league and asked who would you rather have on your team. I would bet you all or most would say Jagr despite Selanne being named to the 1st team all star. So sometimes voting doesn't translate to being the best really. It is more of a honour of being recognized for what you did that year.

Could have would have. Does not matter. I am not trying to put Selanne down but Kurri was relyed on alot and performed almost all the time or at least quite often. Selanne didn't it is that simple. Did Selanne have as many chances as Kurri? No but when he had the chance just didn't do enough in my mind. 35 goals career in the playoffs for one of the greatest playoff goal scorers is not that great to me compared to Kurri sorry

When I said he never did anything I meant compaered to Kurri my fault for not being clear. Selanne as you mentioned did have times when he performed but honestly they were few and far between. Kurri did it almost every game in some manner

How I am I re-writing history. Selanne because of injuries and whatever it might have been had a hole in his career where he was not a top player in the league. This is the truth. If you can't come to terms with that then that is your problem. Remember this is about Kurri and Selanne. I have never said that Selanne was not great he just was never at the caliber Kurri was. However because of the fact that he had many good and some great years in the end his career is pretty close to Kurri. When you take into everything. Honestly if you compare their years side by side. Selanne's best years can't compete with Kurri's best based on the fact that both were great in the regular season but Kurri managed to keep it up if not perform better in the playoffs.

So because Selanne played against the Detroit Red Wings during their 9 game series winning streak that makes Selanne's poor performance ok. It is not that he didn't get the goals needed or points it was that Selanne was a none factor in alot of playoff games he played. It is the truth. Later on in Selanne career maybe it was conditioning or maybe it was getting more committed to winning he did more. Played with more heart and soul

If Selanne would have played like that earlier on. I hope you know what I mean Selanne became more accustomed to the physical play and sacrificed his body to make plays. Played with more determination and later in his career even starting dishing out hits. Now of course they might not have been monster hits but he did. That might have made a difference in my comparison of Selanne and Kurri but he didn't Kurri did more and that is just the truth

Whether that is the most important goal in Anaheim's history that is pretty much up to Ducks fans as I am not one of them. Just remember one thing though. During the Stanley Cup winning season of the Ducks in 2007 their were others that carried the team and not Selanne. Selanne was an important piece no question. But unlike when the Oilers won their cups Kurri was usually top 3-4 player on his team as far as performing. When Anaheim won the cup I can name at least 4 players that were more important for Anaheim. For a minute let's say that this is the most important goal in Anaheim's history. He was 37. It took him until the age of 37 to score a goal that made a difference. Kurri was doing that at the age of 25 and did it more often.

 

[Starchild74]

92-00 The only better winger in the league was Jagr. Hard to be considered the best winger while you are competing against one of the best all time. Selanne still managed 2x1st all star and 2x2nd allstar on RW Which was clearly the better wing 92-00.




Only Vancouver fans would put Bure and Mogilny ahead of Selanne 92-00. Brett Hull wasn't better than Selanne during that time period either and I don't think you would find many people who would consider him better(92-00)

THis is what I mean when I talk about Selanne not being the best at anytime in his career. Also why I mentioned guys like Hull and Bure, mogilny etc...

Just as far as points go

1993 Selanne has a great rookie year the best rookie year ever. However at the time in 1993 even though Selanne had the best year for a winger the best wingers in the game were Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille, a toss up between Selanne and Mogilny and then maybe Recchi

1994 Selanne has a bad year not in the top 5 wingers in the league Bure at this point is a better winger then Selanne

1995 Selanne bounces back for the season and is a top 10 winger for the season but not top 5 winger in the league

1996 3rd best winger in the regular season Top 5 best wingers in the league at this point are probably Jagr, Mogilny, Selanne, Leclaire, Tkachuk

1997 Best year as a winger in the regular season. Top 5 wingers in the game at this point are probably Jagr, Leclaire( Playoffs and a pure powerforward), Selanne, Kariya, Tkachuk

1998 5th in the regular season. Top 5 wingers in the game at this point are probably Jagr, Leclaire, Selanne, Kariya, Bure

1999 2nd best in the rgualr season Top 5 winger in the game at this point are probably Jagr, Selanne, Leclaire, Kariya, number 5 tough to call

2000 5th best in the regular season. Top 5 wingers in the game at this point are probably Jagr, Selanne, Kariya, Bure, Recchi

2001 25th in the regular season. Top 5 wingers in the game at this point are probably Jagr, Bure, Recchi, Selanne, Kovalev

2002 40th in scoring for wingers definately not in the top 5 maybe not in the top 10

2003-2010 respetively scoring for wingers, 26th, aprox. 100th, 8th, 6th, not in the top 100th, 42nd and 52nd

So what am I trying to say. It is that Selanne was never the best winger in the game, at any time during his career. He was at best number 2 and spent alot of it outside the top 5

Now from 2003-2010 he is getting up in age so that is a major part of it. He did have injuries and some years where he didn't do well because of it or just trying to recover.

Now I am not saying that my top 5 are perfect but sometimes a player can have a great season but not be considered the best in the league. That is what I mean by going on by quietly. Not in the terms that he sucked and just got alot of points because he played a long time. If you look at players from 1993-2002 Selanne is the 2nd best as terms of points in that time. However was only the best winger statistically twice in that period.From 2003-2010 he was only in the top 10 twice. When compared to winger he played against in his career he is 1st twice and a total of top ten in scoring for wingers 9 times in his career. Which is impressive but compared to Kurri

1981 decent first year but I think 45th in terms of scoring for wingers

1982 15th in scoring for wingers

1983 4th best for wingers He is probably at this point the 5th best winger in the NHL

1984 3rd best for the season. 3rd best behind Bossy and Goulet

1985 Best season as a winger. Either a tie with Bossy or 2nd depending on who you talk to

1986 Best season for a winger Best winger in the game

1987 Best season for a winger Best winger in the game

1988 4th best season for a winger still the best winger in the game

1989 3rd best season for a winger still the best winger in the game however Robitaille and Joe Mullen are right with him

1990 6th best season for a winger still the best in the game with Robitaille and Hull poised to pass him

1991 Did not play would still be considered top 5 winger in the game despite not playin gin the NHL

1992 30th best year for a winger. Outside the top 5 maybe even outside top 10wingers in the game. Hull is the best

After this not necessary to write down his career was pretty much over.

For 3 seasons he was the best winger as far as regular season goes and top 10 a total of 8 times. which is pretty comaprible to Selanne however the difference is that from 1985-1990 Jari Kurri was the best winger in the game. Another 3 years he was a top 5 winger in the game.

6 years Kurri was the best winger in the game and a total of 9 years he was probably a top 5 winger

Selanne was a top 5 winger for probably 7 years never the best though

So yes if you take totals as far as career goes Selanne's numbers are just as impressive maybe even more so then Kurri. However Kurri's prime was that much better and was the best at his position for quite a few years.

Against players in his own era Selanne at times during his prime was not a top 5 winger. Now that might be because of injuries and we are not talking about skill we are talking about stats. Then that means that when you compare the two Kurri comes out ahead.

Once again for anyone that reads where I said Selanne's quietly produced I am referring to fact that at times he didn't get the recognition he deserved and also the years he was not that superstar. He had some years where he didn't do much but when you look at his totals he still put up decent numbers and it added to his totals

 

[rocsfeather]

Selanne. No doubt both are great, and I won't rehash arguments but at age 40 Selanne has 14 points in 13 games. There is something very impressive about being over a ppg so far at age 40. This isn't a 40 y/o being decent at his age, this is being 11th in the league in points so far and posting a -3 on a Ducks team that has given up an absurd amount of goals.

And to say that it took Selanne until 37 to score a goal that made a difference is beyond uninformed.

 

[tony d]

Can't decide. Both are really good. You could say 1's better but then you'd see something that would make you think the other is better.

 

[jepjepjoo]

...

Damn, I just remembered who you are.

Going trough your earlier posts on different topics, you have said

"Selanne is nothing more than a good player, nothing special"

"Selanne is not a lock to make it to the HHOF"

"Selanne is a good winger but does not belong even being compared to Francis"

You also said that these guys were better wingers than Selanne in the past 30 years:
Adam Graves, Steve Larmer, Joe Mullen, Mark Recchi, Dave Andreychuk, Dino Ciccarell, Glenn Anderson,John LeClair, Alex Mogilny, Luc Robitaille, Trevor Linden, Clark Gillies, Dany Heatley, Markus Naslund etc.

and then you say: "Oh and if you say you would pick Selanne over any of these wingers then either you do not know hockey or are just biased."

 

[Starchild74]

Damn, I just remembered who you are.

Going trough your earlier posts on different topics, you have said

"Selanne is nothing more than a good player, nothing special"

"Selanne is not a lock to make it to the HHOF"

"Selanne is a good winger but does not belong even being compared to Francis"

You also said that these guys were better wingers than Selanne in the past 30 years:
Adam Graves, Steve Larmer, Joe Mullen, Mark Recchi, Dave Andreychuk, Dino Ciccarell, Glenn Anderson,John LeClair, Alex Mogilny, Luc Robitaille, Trevor Linden, Clark Gillies, Dany Heatley, Markus Naslund etc.

and then you say: "Oh and if you say you would pick Selanne over any of these wingers then either you do not know hockey or are just biased."

Yes when it comes to the playoffs I would take any of these guys over Selanne because in the playoffs they all performed well and some of them were the heart and soul of their teams like Linden. Of course Selanne has way more skill but Linden was the face of the Canucks for many years and the heart of the team. Led his team to within one goal of the Stanely Cup

Selanne is not a lock to make the HHOF however he will end up getting in. Their aren't too many locks to make the HHOF left. It all depends when Selanne retires. If Selanne retires the same year that Brodeur, Lidstrom, Jagr, Modano then he might not get in his first year of eligibility. A lock to make the HHOF means making it his first year no matter who is in the same class as him. Now we do not know when Selanne will retire or the other players but it is safe to say these guys could make Selanne wait an extra year if they all retire in the same year.

Except for Selanne's first year and a 5 year span or so Selanne was nothing special just a good hockey player. Compared to what others were doing in the league

Also if you read other posts I said it is too hard comparing wingers to Centers. When you consider everything Fancis brought more to the table then Selanne

The Hockey news who'm I do not always agree with but they are the experts even have Selanne behind Kurri in the greatest RW in the history of hockey

Just because you might have a hard on for Selanne don't take tidbits of what I said earlier in other posts to make it sound as though I don't think Selanne was good. Unlike some on here I can look at one of my favourite players in the league Selanne and not automatically make him out to be better then he was.

Selanne was at times great but for most of his career he was just good. A one dimensional player. However as I said in the last few years or so probably since the lockout Selanne has changed his game a little and become more of a better player. But of course that is not true because Selanne is a god on here for some reason.

Every player except maybe Bobby Orr had flaws in their game. Every player to ever play in the NHL has bad seasons. Every player has times when they don't perform. Of course not Selanne he was a god. No one scored like him. No one was ever able to perform like him. He was better then anyone who played in the high scoring 80's anyone who won Stanley Cups. To hear some talk on here. The only reason why Kurri, won a 5 cups is because he was on the Oilers. Maybe the Oilers won 5 cups because they had Kurri. Instead of giving Kurri credit for being good playing in the 80's for the Oilers and winning cups doesn't matter becasue it isn't fair that Selanne didn't play on good teams.

1981 Dino Ciccarelli, 1991 Brian Bellows, 1998 Adam Oates, 2002 Ron Francis, 2003 Adam Oates with the Ducks, 2004 Jerome Iginla, 2006 Chris Pronger

What do these players have in common? All these players led their team in points in the playoffs with the exception to Ciccarelli but set a rookie record in the playoffs. Their teams went to the Stanley cup finals. They all lost but these players performed with average or mediocre teams. So yes playing on a great team means you might win a cup but if you play on an average team you can still lead a team and perform well in the playoffs. That is the point I have been making when it comes to Selanne.

Yes it is not his fault that he played for some average teams but he also played on teams like San Jose who were pretty good and the Avalanche as well who still had a decent team. The ducks went to the finals after trading Selanne. Oates led the team in points and was important but no one will forget kariya showing heart after the hit he took from Stevens and then scoring. When did Selanne do any of this for his teams.

Kurri did it many times. Scoring hat tricks game making big plays. When the game was on the line he scored many key goals for his teams. But oh yeah I forgot. He only scored them because of Gretzky.

Once again to all who don't understand. Selanne was one of my favourite players to watch. He was at times great but but mostly just good. He has more skill then some of the guys he played against. Even more skill then Kurri but in the end nothing against Selanne but he is not equal to Kurri. It is that simple. He had a better career.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Yes when it comes to the playoffs I would take any of these guys over Selanne because in the playoffs they all performed well and some of them were the heart and soul of their teams like Linden. Of course Selanne has way more skill but Linden was the face of the Canucks for many years and the heart of the team. Led his team to within one goal of the Stanely Cup

You clearly said you thought Adam Graves(and other scrubs) was a better winger than Selanne. You can't take that back anymore

 

[rocsfeather]

I think Selanne gets in over Mike Modano if both are eligible at the same time but that's just me.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Yes it is not his fault that he played for some average teams but he also played on teams like San Jose who were pretty good and the Avalanche as well who still had a decent team.

Avalanche had a decent team? Avs had an All star team which was bound for the cup. Selanne had had a minor knee surgery right before his first playoffs with San Jose and he played with a broken wrist and a broken thumb, but hey lets make it a negative thing that the guy has so much heart to play with all those injuries since he only scored 2 points. Second playoffs they went to the second round(you can't go to the finals every year you know) and Selanne had his usual knee problems. He still scored 5g 3a. On the Avs he was in Granato's doghouse and playing on one leg.

Are there really other "bad" playoff performances by Selanne?

 

[Seanconn*]

Selanne definitely gets in over Modano if they are eligible at the same time. his rookie season is reason enough for him to get in over modano if they had the exact same statistics the day they retire...

modano might have been a better playmaker (helps when you play center) and better defensively, but some of you guys **** all over Selanne in these comparisons because his defensive play... well much like Bure on the panthers being an offensive machine who cared little about defence, if Selanne and Kariya had worried about defence anymore than they did in their time in Anaheim, the Might Ducks would have lost more games than they won because of the offensive greatness they conjured up to win games, and take an otherwise crappy team to be a playoff contender many many times.

the duo of Selanne and Kariya was just too awesome... I believe Wayne Gretzky said something along the lines about them "that if they played during the 80's, it could have been them breaking all the records"

I still think Selanne is a very good playmaker... he's not like Bure who has considerably more goals than assists. pretty balanced in that area if you ask me. his career +89 rating to modanos +113 is really the only thing mike beats him out on- and you gotta give Teemu a bit of slack for play 5 full seasons on a pre lockout mighty ducks team that got scored on quite a bit.

comparable stats, both have cups, Selanne has 3 major individual awards (Calder, Masterdon and Rocket ( and would have had 4 "rockets" had the award been established before his rookie season)

Selanne has the higher PPG, and was a more prolific goal scorer. Modano made it to 50 once. Selanne 3 times... and 7 40+ goal seasons (Modano cracked 40 only once in his lone 50 goal season) Modano's highest season for assists: 60 in 98/99, Selannes: 68 in 95/96.... Modanos 100+ point seasons: 0 Selanne's: 4 seasons.

although, its pretty brutal Modano has no major NHL awards considering the level of player he has been his entire career. cups good enough for most tho I guess just the way the cookie crumbles too many years in a row. but christ, they could have given him a selke or lady bing or something ... jeeeze

compared with Brodeur, Lidstrom and Jagr in terms of who gets into the hall of fame first if only 3 can make it in that year... that's a whole other story

 

[seventieslord]

How would Selanne have 4 rockets?

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

How would Selanne have 4 rockets?

Should be 3, right?

In any event, I am completely comfortable putting Selanne's name a spot or two above Kurri, as it stands; not just due to ''overall''/''total'' value either.

 

[Chileiceman]

At the end of the day, Sellane was the better player. Teemu is an extremely gifted superstar

 

[Seanconn*]

How would Selanne have 4 rockets?

whoops, i guess Keith Tkachuk scored 52 goals in 96/97... i simply assumed Selanne was number 1 in goal scoring that season, because he had the most goals in the top 10... had to check NHL.com.