Habs Defense

[Kudo Shinichi]

Was hoping to see more offense from Mete

He has much more offense in him, he's just playing it safe right now
Not uncommon for young defenseman stepping in the nhl

 

[ECWHSWI]

Sure the stats aren't infallible and don't tell the entire story, and of course stats can be used to interpret whatever point you want sometimes. I don't forget the Weber arguments where stats were trotted out.

I won't say our defense is the best in the league or something, we can improve it and another PMD that can add offense would be a nice addition. But they aren't horrible or a dumpster fire on the other hand. If there job is to prevent scoring chances well they are doing it no matter how much % of error we want to apply to the stats. With the same stats habs are top 10/5/3 in those things so I think even with putting minimal value in those numbers we can say that the D is executing.

I think someone could say the D's as individuals are not impressive (outside of Weber), but as a group and under this coach and with these forwards they are playing as a top unit in the league. Come playoff time they are going to need reinforcements so I think MB will have to make a trade but maybe MB wasn't that far off when he said the D is better than last year

you are not watching the games.

 

[Chili]

On stats...

Don`t know about you folks but the standard of what is and isn`t a penalty can change from game to game that I watch, based on different refs.

And the officials are highly scrutinized on a regular basis.

With the number of stat keepers across the league, would imagine it is less standardized and with much less scrutiny.

What constitutes a hit, turnover, scoring chance in one building is it the same elsewhere? I have alot of doubt.

Two exact same shots...the first one, no screen, goaltender makes the save. Second one, goaltenders eyes completely taken away by a screen.

At least some of the stats (goals, shots on goal, save %, gaa, etc.) consider the two shots identical but are they? Don`t know if any stats consider them differently.

Bottom line, I try to take stats precision with a grain of salt,

I haven`t seen enough of the Habs games to comment much on the d. There was a significant turnover. New partners, new team, for Mete completely different level and pace of game. Looking around the league, don`t think they are either among the worst or best as a group, maybe just average.

 

[sterlinggranger]

The defense is dreadful.

Modern defensemen are judged on how they tilt the rink, on how quickly and efficiently the puck moves forward. Blocking shots and clearing the crease were nice skills in a much slower game.

Alzner and Benn are 7th D. In the salary cap era managing 5-6-7 D is not rocket science: don't pay them more than $1 million.

If Weber was paid $5m and was playing 2nd or 3rd D, he would be fine. At his salary he is mediocre. Despite his reputation, he is weak defensively ... he allows opponents into the zone too easily, he has trouble winning pucks after dump ins, and he rarely relaunches the offense (the mark of a great DEFENSIVE player).

Subban + Markov + Petry + Sergachev + anyone at $1m + anyone at $1m would be fantastic.

 

[scrubadam]

The defense is dreadful.

Modern defensemen are judged on how they tilt the rink, on how quickly and efficiently the puck moves forward. Blocking shots and clearing the crease were nice skills in a much slower game.

Alzner and Benn are 7th D. In the salary cap era managing 5-6-7 D is not rocket science: don't pay them more than $1 million.

If Weber was paid $5m and was playing 2nd or 3rd D, he would be fine. At his salary he is mediocre. Despite his reputation, he is weak defensively ... he allows opponents into the zone too easily, he has trouble winning pucks after dump ins, and he rarely relaunches the offense (the mark of a great DEFENSIVE player).

Subban + Markov + Petry + Sergachev + anyone at $1m + anyone at $1m would be fantastic.

So wouldn't generating more shots and high danger chances as to opposed to those you give up to the tune of being 3rd in HDCF and 5th in HDCA and 3rd in shot and 7 in shots against be tiltng the ice? Or is tilting the ice a code word for rushing the puck like Bobby Orr?

Tonights game Chicago has outshot the habs should I say the stats are lying and the habs are playing amazing D to fit my narrative? I will say Chicago is getting better chances, but tonight the goalie is making huge saves. Habs 4th worst team in giving up goals in High Danger area but allow the 2nd fewest. Goalie needs to stop the puck.

 

[FerrisRox]

The biggest problem of our defense is that they often do bad pinches in the offensive zone, which leads to 2 on 1.
Most of those bad pinches come from Benn tho...

Except they are third in the league for allowing the least High Dangerous Chances. How is that possible if they are giving up 2-on-1's as you claim?

 

[nhlfan9191]

So wouldn't generating more shots and high danger chances as to opposed to those you give up to the tune of being 3rd in HDCF and 5th in HDCA and 3rd in shot and 7 in shots against be tiltng the ice? Or is tilting the ice a code word for rushing the puck like Bobby Orr?

Tonights game Chicago has outshot the habs should I say the stats are lying and the habs are playing amazing D to fit my narrative? I will say Chicago is getting better chances, but tonight the goalie is making huge saves. Habs 4th worst team in giving up goals in High Danger area but allow the 2nd fewest. Goalie needs to stop the puck.

It seems you’re falling into the trap to many people nowadays fall into, and that’s relying solely on advanced stats and not your own eyes. I’m not going to accuse you of not watching games, because I don’t know if you are or not. But advanced stats don’t substitute watching games.

 

[TheBuriedHab]

Losing Markov was the biggest blunder. I said at the time if we did not get a legit puck moving defenseman we would be in huge trouble. Markov would help so much right now, losing him over a couple hundred thousand while we have 8 million in cap space is inexcusable.

 

[scrubadam]

It seems you’re falling into the trap to many people nowadays fall into, and that’s relying solely on advanced stats and not your own eyes. I’m not going to accuse you of not watching games, because I don’t know if you are or not. But advanced stats don’t substitute watching games.

I have probably watched about 8 or 9 games this season. Missed the first west coast trip, the LA game and MIN game. As far as game's watched I did miss out on a lot of losses so my percetption might be colored by seeing the better games the habs played.

But even tonight strangely enough though it seemed like Chicago was dominating habs had more HDCF than Chicago, I think 14 to 8. Chicago though did have some good chances and the goalie stopped those chances. Crawford was no slouch himself either.

I don't really see a team that struggles all that much. Yes the other team gets opportunities, that's hockey habs got them this game to and scored 2 goals. The only thing I am not seeing is the habs D skating the puck out and rushing it ala PK or Bobby Orr style. That's not the game they play.

 

[scrubadam]

Losing Markov was the biggest blunder. I said at the time if we did not get a legit puck moving defenseman we would be in huge trouble. Markov would help so much right now, losing him over a couple hundred thousand while we have 8 million in cap space is inexcusable.

I think MB should of signed Markov and losing him has created a hole, but I think he would of been 4th or 5th D on this team. He is better than what we rotate on our bottom pairing, would of helped on the PP but even now in the KHL he is starting to slow down. He had a hot start but now 15 points in 27 games. To put it in perspective Dietz has 18 points in 19 games.

I don't think he would make a huge difference defensively, but I do think he would have some ES points and some PP points.

 

[nhlfan9191]

I have probably watched about 8 or 9 games this season. Missed the first west coast trip, the LA game and MIN game. As far as game's watched I did miss out on a lot of losses so my percetption might be colored by seeing the better games the habs played.

But even tonight strangely enough though it seemed like Chicago was dominating habs had more HDCF than Chicago, I think 14 to 8. Chicago though did have some good chances and the goalie stopped those chances. Crawford was no slouch himself either.

I don't really see a team that struggles all that much. Yes the other team gets opportunities, that's hockey habs got them this game to and scored 2 goals. The only thing I am not seeing is the habs D skating the puck out and rushing it ala PK or Bobby Orr style. That's not the game they play.

We’ve played pretty solid since the 1-6-1 start. But the defence is still struggling mightily at moving the puck. There’s a difference between PK and Bobby Orr and guys who can make clean passes out of the zone. Currently we have no guys who can make those clean passes and it’s concerning. People saw it in the summer and were right. Just like people who said trading PK for Weber would have a drastic effect the season prior. We have a nice set of wingers and a smart coach so we’re currently finding ways to try and compensate for it. But if we ever want to get anywhere this needs to be addressed.

 

[David25]

Would be a lot better with Subban, Markov and Sergachev

I can't imagine this team without drouin right now.

 

[Habs_Apostle]

We’ve played pretty solid since the 1-6-1 start. But the defence is still struggling mightily at moving the puck. There’s a difference between PK and Bobby Orr and guys who can make clean passes out of the zone. Currently we have no guys who can make those clean passes and it’s concerning. People saw it in the summer and were right. Just like people who said trading PK for Weber would have a drastic effect the season prior. We have a nice set of wingers and a smart coach so we’re currently finding ways to try and compensate for it. But if we ever want to get anywhere this needs to be addressed.

No, they were wrong.

Saying something is so doesn't make it so. You can't say "trading away PK for Weber is going to kill our transition game and lead us to rely on Price more than ever," and then just ignore every available statistic that speaks to just that outcome. And if you look at every available statistic you'll see our possession numbers were the same as the previous year AND that we greatly improved our chances for/against differential (and this was true across both Therrien and Julien). AND if you look more closely, you'll see Nashville's possession metrics dropped significantly as did their chances for/against differential. So, yes, there was a drastic effect, but it was in the opposite direction to which most predicted.

And so, again, you can't say "I believe our possession game and our ability to generate and limit chances is going to suffer because of the D-core Bergevin has assembled," and then ignore every available statistic that speaks to that outcome. And, once again, if you look at those statistics, you'll see we're amongst the league leaders in possession metrics and chances for/against metrics.

Yes, statistics are not everything and there is a lot of room for discussion about nuances, but without them what do we have? I said so-and-so, I'm seeing so-and-so, and therefore I was right. That's just silly.

 

[nhlfan9191]

No, they were wrong.

Saying something is so doesn't make it so. You can't say "trading away PK for Weber is going to kill our transition game and lead us to rely on Price more than ever," and then just ignore every available statistic that speaks to just that outcome. And if you look at every available statistic you'll see our possession numbers were the same as the previous year AND that we greatly improved our chances for/against differential (and this was true across both Therrien and Julien). AND if you look more closely, you'll see Nashvilles possession metrics dropped significantly as did their chances for/against differential. So, yes, there was a drastic effect, but it was in the opposite direction to which most predicted.

And so, again, you can't say "I believe our possession game and our ability to generate and limit chances is going to suffer because of the D-core Bergevin has assembled," and then ignore every available statistic that speaks to that outcome. And, once again, if you look at those statsitcis, you'll see we're amongst the league leaders in possession metrics and chances for/against metrics.

Yes, statistics are not everything and there is a lot of room for discussion about nuances, but without them what do we have? I said so-and-so, I'm seeing so-and-so, and therefore I was right. That's just silly.

I never mentioned Price in this thread and this post seems like it’s some sort of grudge over something said in the Price thread. Good try tho. I know when I’m right, I know when I’m wrong, and know when I’m in between. When I use an eye test like I have in this specific thread, I realize it’s just opinion. Blind Price haters are pretty easy wins because they don’t have much to go off of other then saying “Price sucks in the playoffs! And the team has nothing to do with it! Here are a couple of advanced stats that fit my agenda and someone who didn’t watch the games can use!”

 

[Habs_Apostle]

I never mentioned Price in this thread and this post seems like it’s some sort of grudge over something said in the Price thread. Good try tho. I know when I’m right, I know when I’m wrong, and know when I’m in between. When I use an eye test like I have in this specific thread, I realize it’s just opinion.

Nothing to do with Price. Substitute "we're going to have to rely on our goalie more." It was simply a statement many made when we traded PK for Weber. I don't even like contrasting the two (don't care for the debate). Let's just say a PMD for one that's supposed to be a stay-at-home D-man. The point is that the predictions about our numbers never came to be. And they haven't materialized this year either with the so-called crappy D-core Bergy assembled.

And I wish I had your confidence - good for you! I never feel like I really know anything - that's why I like to look at the numbers!

 

[nhlfan9191]

Nothing to do with Price. Substitute "we're going to have to rely on our goalie more." It was simply a statement many made when we traded PK for Weber. I don't even like contrasting the two (don't care for the debate). Let's just say a PMD for one that's supposed to be a stay-at-home D-man. The point is that the predictions about our numbers never came to be. And they haven't materialized this year either with the so-called crappy D-core Bergy assembled.

And I wish I had your confidence - good for you! I never feel like I really know anything - that's why I like to look at the numbers!

Hey, over confidence is probably a bad trait on my part for a hockey forum. But I’ve been involved in the game my whole life and watch just about every Habs game. I hate advanced stats. I really do because numbers can be so deceiving. Especially when I can get more out of a game by just evaluating it myself. When someone clearly has no knowledge of the game, or starts digging at the bottom of the barrel for a couple of stats they can use in an arguement to try and tear apart a good player, I’ll call them out. And I’m not referring to Scubadam.

 

[Habs_Apostle]

Hey, over confidence is probably a bad trait on my part for a hockey forum. But I’ve been involved in the game my whole life and watch just about every Habs game. I hate advanced stats. I really do because numbers can be so deceiving. Especially when I can get more out of a game by just evaluating it myself.

Honestly, you sound like you have more experience than I do in hockey. Ha-ha... I just don't trust myself, and I'm all too aware of my own biases. So good for you if you can keep your biases in check. I just find marrying my subjective impressions with objective data is the best way to go. And, I agree, numbers can be deceiving, and need to be interpreted with caution.

Anyways, while I would agree there is room for improvement, I'm not seeing a disaster out there by any means.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Honestly, you sound like you have more experience than I do in hockey. Ha-ha... I just don't trust myself, and I'm all too aware of my own biases. So good for you if you can keep your biases in check. I just find marrying my subjective impressions with objective data is the best way to go. And, I agree, numbers can be deceiving, and need to be interpreted with caution.

Anyways, while I would agree there is room for improvement, I'm not seeing a disaster out there by any means.

I added a bit to my last post. Scrubadam, the guy I’ve been debating with came up with some good statistics for arguements. It’s basically my own eye test vs advanced stats. But common sense from watching the game tells me we have some pretty slow skaters who are pretty bad at moving the puck on D. We’re lacking heavily in that area. There’s no doubt this team has shown the last 7 games it can work around these flaws. They did it last year and they seem to be starting to do it again.

 

[TennisMenace]

Sometimes a weakness in one area is a strength in another. Things don’t LOOK as bad to me as they do to you. I think you are wanting to see one particular facet of defensive play at the exclusion of acknowledging the good in some of the other facets. If Carey Price was playing like Carey Price, I doubt we would even be having this conversation.

 

[TennisMenace]

Hopefully the good puck moving skaters like Morrow and Jerabek and figure out how to play defense too and provide the balance we all want to see.

 

[Kriss E]

I think a sexy D is being confused with an effective D. Habs D has been effective, stats bear it out. One of the top teams at limiting chances, especially the dangerous ones.

The D is never going to do end to end rushes. Yes that is true. We don't have a D that will carry the puck and deke out a bunch of players. But the D is keeping the other team from having good chances.

If you want to see Bobby Orr style rushing out there from the backend then you probably think this D isn't great. If you want to see fewer shots for the opponent especially from the best spots then this D is doing their job. Its a group that is doing better than the sum of its parts.

What you are seeing is the Julien effect, not the effectiveness of this defense. They suck. Julien's teams though just tend to play this way. That is the difference between a good coach like Julien, and a completely crap one like Therrien.

 

[lamp9post]

The defense has looked better the past few games (not surprisingly we've been winning as a result) but I'm still a bit weary of it's overall composition. We could use a bit more 'headiness' back there in terms of transitioning to offense and I'm not sure Mete is quite up to the task just yet. Petry's play is absolutely key. If he can play like a solid #3 (which he is capable of) then we look decent. If he's playing like a #6 as in the first 6-7 games, then we're in some trouble.

The defense is dreadful.

Modern defensemen are judged on how they tilt the rink, on how quickly and efficiently the puck moves forward. Blocking shots and clearing the crease were nice skills in a much slower game.

Alzner and Benn are 7th D. In the salary cap era managing 5-6-7 D is not rocket science: don't pay them more than $1 million.

If Weber was paid $5m and was playing 2nd or 3rd D, he would be fine. At his salary he is mediocre. Despite his reputation, he is weak defensively ... he allows opponents into the zone too easily, he has trouble winning pucks after dump ins, and he rarely relaunches the offense (the mark of a great DEFENSIVE player).

Subban + Markov + Petry + Sergachev + anyone at $1m + anyone at $1m would be fantastic.

I'm guessing you don't watch a lot of games outside of Montreal. It is one thing to compare players against unrealistic expectations (which you seem to be doing) and another to compare players against their peers league wide. There is not a single team in the league on which Alzner is a #7. Likewise, Weber would be the TOI leader on at least a dozen NHL teams and if he was UFA, teams would be lining up to offer him $7+M with the idea that he would be their #1D.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Except they are third in the league for allowing the least High Dangerous Chances. How is that possible if they are giving up 2-on-1's as you claim?

Scoring Chance metrics are pretty flawed. Use expected goals instead.

 

[MasterDecoy]

It's great!
It's so good we didn't even Markov

 

[scrubadam]

Scoring Chance metrics are pretty flawed. Use expected goals instead.

Where do the habs rank in these expected catagories?

Anyways seems like a lot of math and speculation. I guess with all stats its being left up to interpretation since someone somewhere will have assign the % to the shot. Like their example a slot is worth 12% but point shot is worth 2%. But what about a Weber bomb vs an Emelin shot from the point? Is this giving Weber point shot 8% and Emelin 1%?

Does DD's shot from the slot count as 8% while Crosby's as 25%? Does the stat account for a guy with a career shooting % of 10% vs one with 5%?

Its like we have stats that show the habs as a team are limiting the other teams chances, so lets look even further to find a stat that will prove that the habs aren't that good.

A team should work to limit shots as much as possible, and keep them out of the high danger area's. Habs are one of the best this season in doing that. The last piece is GA which this year is horrible for the team, but I put that on the goalies who have let in the 4th most HDGA while facing the 3rd least.

Defense limits shots, which with solid goaltending will limit goals. I don't see how we can say a team that is at the top of the league limits shots is somehow bad defensively. If the team was so bad defensively they would be giving up a ton of shots and a ton of them from the best area's on the ice, habs are NOT doing that.