The Blue Jays know what’s wrong with Vlad Guerrero. Fixing it is just a matter of time, and confidence | The Star
Guerrero’s biggest issue continues to be hitting too many balls on the ground. Like last year, he’s making hard contact but he’s not doing much with it. In 2019, Guerrero hit 50.4 per cent of balls put into play on the ground with an average launch angle of 6.7 degrees. He entered play on Saturday with a 60.6 per cent ground-ball rate and an even lower 6.5-degree launch angle. The line-drive rate dropped by four per cent while the fly-ball mark fell by almost eight year over year.
That’s not the trajectory Toronto had been hoping for after the coaching staff preached bat path and approach throughout the second half of last year. There have been glimpses, such as last August when Guerrero hit .314 with a .977 OPS in 25 games, but overall the young phenom has yet to put everything together for an extended stretch.
In layman’s terms, Guerrero is hitting the top of the baseball far too often. Guerrero has used the barrel of his bat 6.1 per cent of the time in 2020 vs. 7.7 per cent from a year ago. He’s frequently driving the ball into the ground by hitting the upper part of the baseball 48.5 per cent of the time, compared to 39.7 per cent in 2019.
The most troubling part, especially following an off-season when the club claimed Guerrero rededicated himself to a strict diet and fitness routine, is the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. It would be ill-advised to bet against a guy with as much natural talent as Guerrero, but last year’s advanced stats left a lot of room for improvement.
Fundamental changes were needed not only to his workout schedule and diet, but his swing. So far, the adjustments have yet to take hold.
Opposing pitchers have used a pretty similar approach to Guerrero since his arrival in the big leagues. Last year, Guerrero saw 55.7 per cent fastballs, 33.7 per cent breaking balls (curveball, slider, etc.) and 10.6 per cent off-speed pitches (changeup, splitter, etc.). This year there has been 64.5 per cent fastballs, 23.7 per cent breaking balls and 11.8 per cent off-speed.
There are differences between the two years, but not big ones. Instead, it’s what Guerrero is doing with those pitches that stands out. Through 11 games this season, Guerrero was batting just .208 with a .292 slugging percentage, no home runs and two doubles on fastballs. Compare that to last year when he was batting .306 with a .476 slugging percentage and 21 extra-base hits on the same pitch.
Guerrero’s performance over the last year is even more disappointing when his numbers are put alongside those of his star peers. Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. broke into the league at 20 years old and posted 4.2 wins above replacement value in his first year. By year two, his WAR soared to 5.7 after 41 homers, 101 RBIs with 37 stolen bases.