Why? Penguins have dominated in the playoffs for 3 year straight in an extremely impressive way. They always manage to be very loose and destroy teams out of the gate. Why would that change?
Assuming season ended today (and both teams qualified) and playoffs started on the Wednesday as usual - I 100% believe Pens would be ready to go and play to the best of their ability by the start of the series.
I mean - Leafs have a great roster and a ton of talent. If they get their **** together in the playoffs - they certainly have the talent to compete with even a Pens team playing to the best of their ability - so it's not like they can't win. But I think most people here picking the Leafs are doing so because they think Pens suck now, which seems dumb. Pens do not suck - they started slow last year too.
After 25 games Penguins have 25 points this year.
Last year after 25 games they had 27 points.
At the 42 game mark last year Penguins had 43 points - just 1 point above 500.
If the playoffs started the Pens would absolutely be an extremely tough out against any team in the league - even today.
Experience is important but it can also be overrated, and at a certain point the team that can "turn it on" simply isn't good enough anymore. I bought into the idea that Chicago could go for another one in '17 or that LA could last year and both couldn't make it past the first round, looking awful in the process.
Sure the team isn't in a much worse spot than they were a year ago, which is why I said we'll see where they're at by the time the playoffs roll around. But the fact that they played well in the playoffs last year doesn't mean they would have performed well had they started in December. It took time for the team to get into a groove and I don't buy that they would have played well at this time last year nor would they right now. The team looks disjointed, with terrible team defense and the depth isn't producing.
Today, Toronto is simply playing like a much better team, and it's not a paper tiger, as the roster is as solid on paper as the Pens and has been a good team for 3 years now. I don't think the Pens would get their act together that quickly and I don't think experience is enough to overcome the current advantage. There's also something to be said for youthful exuberance which can counteract experience. We saw that with the 2008 Pens.